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At least 253 records · Page 14

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-Based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

Model-based prognostics captures system knowledge in the form of physics-based models of components, and how they fail, in order to obtain accurate predictions of end of life (EOL). EOL is predicted based on the estimated current state distribution of a component and expected profiles of future usage. In general, this requires simulations of the component using the underlying models. In this paper, we develop a simulation-based prediction methodology that achieves computational efficiency by performing only the minimal number of simulations needed in order to accurately approximate the mean and variance of the complete EOL distribution. This is performed through the use of the unscented transform, which predicts the means and covariances of a distribution passed through a nonlinear transformation. In this case, the EOL simulation acts as that nonlinear transformation. In this paper, we review the unscented transform, and describe how this concept is applied to efficient EOL prediction. As a case study, we develop a physics-based model of a solenoid valve, and perform simulation experiments to demonstrate improved computational efficiency without sacrificing prediction accuracy.

Daigle, Matthew John↗

Shock Radiation Tests for Saturn and Uranus Entry Probes

This paper describes a test series in the Electric Arc Shock Tube at NASA Ames Research Center with the objective of quantifying shock-layer radiative heating magnitudes for future probe entries into Saturn and Uranus atmospheres. Normal shock waves are measured in Hydrogen/Helium mixtures (89:11 by mole) at freestream pressures between 13-66 Pa (0.1-0.5 Torr) and velocities from 20-30 km/s. No shock layer radiation is detected below 25 km/s, a finding consistent with predictions for Uranus entries. Between 25-30 km/s, radiance is quantified from the Vacuum Ultraviolet through Near Infrared, with focus on the Lyman-alpha and Balmer series lines of Hydrogen. Shock profiles are analyzed for electron number density and electronic state distribution. The shocks do not equilibrate over several cm, and distributions are demonstrated to be non-Boltzmann. Radiation data are compared to simulations of Decadal survey entries for Saturn and shown to be significantly lower than predicted with the Boltzmann radiation model.

Saturn Probe↗

Spot: A Programming Language for Verified Flight Software

The C programming language is widely used for programming space flight software and other safety-critical real time systems. C, however, is far from ideal for this purpose: as is well known, it is both low-level and unsafe. This paper describes Spot, a language derived from C for programming space flight systems. Spot aims to maintain compatibility with existing C code while improving the language and supporting verification with the SPIN model checker. The major features of Spot include actor-based concurrency, distributed state with message passing and transactional updates, and annotations for testing and verification. Spot also supports domain-specific annotations for managing spacecraft state, e.g., communicating telemetry information to the ground. We describe the motivation and design rationale for Spot, give an overview of the design, provide examples of Spot's capabilities, and discuss the current status of the implementation.

validation↗

Predicting Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry using Multi-scale Modeling Methods

Over the the last 70 years plutonium (Pu) has been integral in the development of several technologies that have changed the world, yet our fundamental understanding of its chemistry is still far from complete. This is a testament to this element’s unique and complex properties, such as its ability to coexist as multiple oxidation states in aqueous solution. Careful manipulation of plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. For this reason, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded negligible net change in the steady-state oxidation state distribution of Pu(IV). Multi-scale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to radiation-induced redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by radiolytic nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, and the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals. These radiation-induced redox processes are augmented by plutonium’s inherent disproportionation reactions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Solving Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Networks with State Estimation Feedback

Conventional optimal power flow (OPF) solvers assume full observability of the involved system states. However in practice, there is a lack of reliable system monitoring devices in the distribution networks. To close the gap between the theoretic algorithm design and practical implementation, this work proposes to solve the OPF problems based on the state estimation (SE) feedback for the distribution networks where only a part of the involved system states are physically measured. The SE feedback increases the observability of the under-measured system and provides more accurate system states monitoring when the measurements are noisy. We analytically investigate the convergence of the proposed algorithm. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach is more robust to large pseudo measurement variability and inherent sensor noise in comparison to the other frameworks without SE feedback.

distirbution systems↗

A Medium-/Low-Voltage Joint State Estimator Through Linear Uncertainty Propagation

Traditionally, distribution system state estimations (DSSE) are challenged by the lack of measurements at both primary and secondary sides of the system. The widely available cable television (CATV) voltage sensors installed in low-voltage (LV) networks bring opportunities to achieve higher quality DSSE covering a broader area of the distribution network. This study proposes a medium-/low-voltage (MV/LV) joint distribution system state estimation approach using the untapped CATV measurements. It aims at addressing the need for system situational awareness at the grid edge while improving the estimation accuracy at both the primary and secondary sides compared to its disjointed counterpart. Linearized measurement functions and boundary condition uncertainty propagation rules are derived to ensure the computational efficiency and accuracy of the joint state estimator. Numerical experiments are conducted on an IEEE test feeder to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method and the value of CATV measurements.

joint state estimation↗

State Requirements for Electric Distribution System Planning

Utilities have conducted distribution planning since they first began building and operating electricity systems. But filing these plans for regulatory and stakeholder review is a relatively recent phenomenon. This report summarizes legislative and regulatory requirements for regulated electric utilities to file some type of distribution system plan in 20 U.S. jurisdictions. Some plans focus on expedited cost recovery for certain types of distribution system improvements; other plans focus on investments for grid modernization or distributed energy resources. Increasingly, states are adopting requirements for Integrated Distribution Plans. Such plans provide holistic grid investment strategies that address state and local policies and increasing complexity at the grid edge. The report covers the following topics for distribution system plans, highlighting advanced practices: -State goals and objectives -Procedural requirements -Forecasting loads and distributed energy resources -Hosting capacity analysis -Baseline information requirements -Grid modernization strategy -Grid needs assessment -Non-wires solutions -Reliability and resilience analyses -Stakeholder engagement -Equity -Pilots -Coordination with other planning processes The report includes links to legislation; regulatory requirements, proceedings, and orders; and filed utility plans. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity provided funding support.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reconfiguring band-edge states and charge distribution of organic semiconductor–incorporated 2D perovskites via pressure gating

Two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor heterostructures are key building blocks for many electronic and optoelectronic devices. Reconfiguring the band-edge states and modulating their interplay with charge carriers at the interface in a continuous manner have long been sought yet are challenging. Here, using organic semiconductor–incorporated 2D halide perovskites as the model system, we realize the manipulation of band-edge states and charge distribution via mechanical—rather than chemical or thermal—regulation. Compression induces band-alignment switching and charge redistribution due to the different pressure responses of organic and inorganic building blocks, giving controllable emission properties of 2D perovskites. We propose and demonstrate a “pressure gating” strategy that enables the control of multiple emission states within a single material. We also reveal that band-alignment transition at the organic-inorganic interface is intrinsically not well resolved at room temperature owing to the thermally activated transfer and shuffling of band-edge carriers. This work provides important fundamental insights into the energetics and carrier dynamics of hybrid semiconductor heterostructures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi Time-scale Imputation aided State Estimation in Distribution System

With the transition to a smart grid, we are witnessing a significant growth in sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. However, information from these sensors and meters are typically unevenly sampled at different time-scales and are incomplete. It is critical to effectively aggregate these information sources for situational awareness. In order to reconcile the heterogeneous multi-scale time-series data, we present a multi-task Gaussian process framework. This framework exploits the spatio-temporal correlation across the time-series data to impute data at any desired timescale while providing confidence bounds on the imputations. The value of the imputed data for distribution system operation is illustrated via a matrix completion based state estimation strategy. Results on the IEEE 37 bus distribution system reveals the superior performance of the proposed approach relative to linear interpolation approaches.

Dahale, Shweta↗

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distributed Ledger Technology for Fault Tolerant Distribution Grid Operations

This paper explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) to improve fault-tolerant grid operations by leveraging its core features as an immutable, decentralized ledger, a distributed, consensus-based agreement process, and a distributed state-replication engine. Distribution power systems deliver electricity to millions of customers; however, they are susceptible to various threats that can result in customer interruptions. These include faults caused by adverse weather conditions, natural disasters, vegetation growth, equipment failure, and malicious attacks. To minimize the effects of these faults, fault-handling approaches rely on network knowledge to isolate affected areas and reconnect unaffected areas, reducing the number of affected customers while maintaining safety. Here, we present a trusted data-sharing architecture that enables independent, distributed actors to reconstruct the pre-fault system state by enabling distributed resources to make appropriate decisions with limited network/system information. Although the process requires some data sharing between switch-delimited areas, the approach limits the amount of private information shared, preserving customers' privacy and business-sensitive information. We include three use cases that form a foundation for third parties to develop functional solutions that can eventually be deployed in the field. The gross error detection method used within switch-delimited areas can identify sensor errors and accurately detect circuit breaker states. The evaluation of possible reconnection while preserving data ownership resulted in a voltage magnitude difference smaller than 0.001% from the OpenDSS power flow solution that has full system knowledge, which is below the expected power flow tolerance. The approach offers a promising opportunity for improving fault-tolerant distribution grid operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Joint Topology Identification and State Estimation in Unobservable Distribution Grids

Many distribution system operations (e.g., state estimation, control, fault detection/localization) rely on the assumption that the underlying topology is accurately defined. In general, topology identification is a challenging problem in distribution systems as these systems are unobservable with a very limited number of available measurements. In this paper, we tackle this problem by designing a compressive sensing framework that jointly estimates the systems states and network topology via an integrated mixed integer nonlinear program (MINLP) formulation. Here, two reformulations of the original MINLP problems are investigated. Firstly, in order to remove the nonlinearity in the MINLP formulation, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem that employs auxiliary variables is derived. Furthermore, to achieve a faster solution, convex relaxation of the original formulation is derived. Finally, using a Markovian model for topology changes, prior information about system topology is used to improve topology identification particularly when a limited amount of measurements is available. Simulation results on IEEE 37-bus test feeder and IEEE 123-bus test feeder illustrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed approaches from both state estimation and topology identification point of view (even with 30% of available data).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Adaptive Linear State Estimation for Unbalanced Distribution System

The inclusion of PMU functionality in distribution relays enables the implementation of a linear state estimator (LSE) in Distribution Systems (DS). However, the unbalanced topology and phase coupling in distribution lines necessitate modifications to the LSE formulation. Additionally, the higher fault frequency in distribution systems requires a state estimation approach that is resilient to contingencies. This work proposes an adaptive linear state estimation algorithm tailored for unbalanced distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase laterals. Furthermore, a modified Optimal PMU Placement (OPP) strategy is introduced to ensure full observability in distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase buses. To maintain adaptability to topology changes, the state estimator incorporates circuit breaker status data provided by PMUs, ensuring robust performance during topology changes triggered by faults. The performance of the algorithm is verified on the IEEE 13-bus, 34-bus, and 123-bus systems.

PMUs↗

Decentralized Low-Rank State Estimation for Power Distribution Systems

This article considers the low-observability state estimation problem in power distribution networks and develops a decentralized state estimation algorithm leveraging the matrix completion methodology. Matrix completion has been shown to be an effective technique in state estimation that exploits the low dimensionality of the power system measurements to recover missing information. This technique can utilize an approximate (linear) load flow model, or it can be used with no physical models in a network where no information about the topology or line admittance is available. The direct application of matrix completion algorithms requires solving a semi-definite programming (SDP) problem, which becomes computationally challenging for large networks. We therefore develop a decentralized algorithm that capitalizes on the popular proximal alternating direction method of multipliers (proximal ADMM). The method allows us to distribute the computation among different areas of the network, leading to a scalable algorithm. By doing all computations at individual control areas and only communicating with neighboring areas, the algorithm eliminates the need for data to be sent to a central processing unit and thus increases efficiency and contributes to the goal of autonomous control of distribution networks. We illustrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm numerically using standard IEEE test cases.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

On the implementation of modal filters for control of structures

The most common technique for the control of structures is modal control. In modal control, the differential equations in terms of actual coordinates are replaced by a set of ordinary differential equations in terms of the modal coordinates known as modal equations. In designing feedback controls in conjunction with the modal equations, one must know the modal states for the modes targeted for control. The sensors measure actual states, however. The modal states can be estimated by means of a Luenberger observer or modal filters. The modal filters produce estimates of the modal states from distributed measurements of the states. If distributed measurements are not available, then they can be reconstructed from measurements at discrete points via interpolation. This paper examines various questions associated with the implementation of modal filters, such as the effect of choice of interpolation functions and sensors locations, as well as of measurement errors, on the state estimation process. The method is demonstrated by means of two numerical examples.

Meirovitch, L.↗

A theory of local and global processes which affect solar wind electrons. 1: The origin of typical 1 AU velocity distribution functions: Steady state theory

A detailed first principle kinetic theory for electrons which is neither a classical fluid treatment nor an exospheric calculation is presented. This theory illustrates the global and local properties of the solar wind expansion that shape the observed features of the electron distribution function, such as its bifurcation, its skewness and the differential temperatures of the thermal and suprathermal subpopulations. Coulomb collisions are substantial mediators of the interplanetary electron velocity distribution function and they place a zone for a bifurcation of the electron distribution function deep in the corona. The local cause and effect precept which permeates the physics of denser media is modified for electrons in the solar wind. The local form of transport laws and equations of state which apply to collision dominated plasmas are replaced with global relations that explicitly depend on the relative position of the observer to the boundaries of the system.

Scudder, J. D.↗

The Age of Evapotranspiration: Lower‐Bound Constraints From Distributed Water Fluxes Across the Continental United States

Abstract Unlike streamflow, which can be sampled in aggregate at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration (ET) is spatially dispersed, challenging large‐scale age estimation. Here, we introduce an approach for constraining the age of ET via mass balance and present the minimum flux‐weighted age of ET across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available water flux data sets. The lower‐bound constraint on ET age can be calculated by assuming that ET is preferentially sourced from the most recent precipitation through a last‐in, first‐out algorithm. From 2012 to 2017, ET was at least several months old across large areas of the western continental United States, including in Mediterranean and (semi‐)arid climate zones and shrub and evergreen needleleaf plant communities. The primary limitation of this approach is that it provides only a minimum flux‐weighted average age to satisfy the mass balance of outgoing fluxes; true ET fluxes are composed of distributions of ages and may be composed of much older water. The primary advantage of the approach is that flux time series of precipitation and ET are sufficient to constrain ET age, and model parameterization is unnecessary. ET ages can be used to validate tracer‐aided and modeling approaches and inform studies of biogeochemistry, water‐rock interactions, and plant water sourcing under drought.

Hahm, W. J.↗