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At least 253 records · Page 14

A Robust Parallel Distributed State Estimation for Large Scale Distribution Systems

The growing need and interest in real-time monitoring of large distribution networks motivated by the rapid population of renewable sources, EVs and etc. demand a computationally efficient state estimation framework. Furthermore, this paper presents an improved computational framework for implementing a robust state estimator using a multi-core processor. The main contribution of the paper is the proposed computational framework along with two partitioning strategies which enable fast and robust state estimation for large scale radial and/or meshed distribution systems. Formulation of the proposed method and its implementation are described in detail. Performance of the estimator is tested by simulations first using a small 84-bus radial distribution system. Then the method’s scalability is demonstrated by simulations on two very large scale distribution networks one configured radially and the other meshed each containing over 12,500 buses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Emulation of seismic-phase traveltimes with machine learning

SUMMARY We present a machine learning (ML) method for emulating seismic-phase traveltimes that are computed using a global-scale 3-D earth model and physics-based ray tracing. Accurate traveltime predictions based on 3-D earth models are known to reduce the bias of event location estimates, increase our ability to assign phase labels to seismic detections and associate detections to events. However, practical use of 3-D models is challenged by slow computational speed and the unwieldiness of pre-computed lookup tables that are often large and have prescribed computational grids. In this work, we train a ML emulator using pre-computed traveltimes, resulting in a compact and computationally fast way to approximate traveltimes that are based on a 3-D earth model. Our model is trained using approximately 850 million P-wave traveltimes that are based on the global LLNL-G3D-JPS model, which was developed for more accurate event location. The training-set consists of traveltimes between 10 393 global seismic stations and randomly sampled event locations that provide a prescribed, distance-dependent geographic sample density for each station. Prediction accuracy is dependent on event-station distance and whether the station was included in the training set. For stations included in the training set the mean absolute deviation (MAD) of the difference between traveltimes computed using ray tracing through the 3-D model and the ML emulator for local, regional, and teleseismic distances are 0.090, 0.125 and 0.121 s, respectively. For tested station locations not included in the training set, MAD values for the three distance ranges increase to 0.173, 0.219 and 0.210 s, respectively. Empirical traveltime residuals for a global reference data are indistinguishable when ML emulation or the 3-D model is used to compute traveltimes. This result holds regardless of whether the recording station is used in ML training or not.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting the Phase Stability of Multicomponent High-Entropy Compounds

A generic method to estimate the relative feasibility of formation of high-entropy compounds in a single phase, directly from first principles, is developed. As a first step, the relative formation abilities of 56 multicomponent, AO, oxides were evaluated. These were constructed from five cation combinations chosen from A = {Ca, Co, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, Zn}. Candidates for multicomponent oxides are predicted from descriptors related to the enthalpy and configurational entropy obtained from the mixing enthalpies of two-component oxides. The utility of this approach is evaluated by comparing the predicted combinations with the experimentally realized entropy-stabilized oxide, (MgCoCuNiZn)O. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to investigate the phase composition and local ionic segregation as a function of temperature. This approach allows for the evaluation of potential secondary phases, thereby making realistic predictions of novel multicomponent compounds that can be synthesized.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptive Linear State Estimation for Unbalanced Distribution System

The inclusion of PMU functionality in distribution relays enables the implementation of a linear state estimator (LSE) in Distribution Systems (DS). However, the unbalanced topology and phase coupling in distribution lines necessitate modifications to the LSE formulation. Additionally, the higher fault frequency in distribution systems requires a state estimation approach that is resilient to contingencies. This work proposes an adaptive linear state estimation algorithm tailored for unbalanced distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase laterals. Furthermore, a modified Optimal PMU Placement (OPP) strategy is introduced to ensure full observability in distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase buses. To maintain adaptability to topology changes, the state estimator incorporates circuit breaker status data provided by PMUs, ensuring robust performance during topology changes triggered by faults. The performance of the algorithm is verified on the IEEE 13-bus, 34-bus, and 123-bus systems.

PMUs↗

The decay of HIV under anti-retroviral therapy is biphasic even in humanized mice with just T cells

HIV-1 plasma viral load decays in a biphasic manner during antiretroviral therapy (ART). It was hypothesized that this is due to infection of different cell types, namely CD4+ T cells and macrophages. We studied this possibility directly by modeling the decay of HIV-1 in humanized mice. We utilized previously published data from humanized T-cell only mice (TOM) and myeloid-only mice (MOM) infected with HIV-1 and treated with a potent ART regimen. Viral load decay dynamics were modeled using either a single or a biexponential decay fitted using nonlinear mixed effects techniques. Fits were compared using the corrected Bayesian information criterion (BICc). In TOM, the biphasic model was significantly better than a single-phase decay model (ΔBICc ≈ 16) despite additional parameters. In MOM, the biphasic decay was statistically better, but there was substantial uncertainty because the virus goes below detection very fast. The first-phase half-life was consistent between groups (1.2 days in MOM and 1.3 days in TOM) and similar to the half-life estimated in human infection. The second-phase decay in these mice was minimal likely due to low initial viral loads. Additional analyses with mice containing both CD4+ T cells and macrophages or X4-tropic virus-infected MOM mice confirmed the biphasic pattern, demonstrating the robustness of this result. The biphasic decline in HIV-1 occurs, even with only CD4+ T cells, refuting the hypothesis that distinct cell populations (CD4+ T cells and macrophages) drive each decay phase. These findings support an alternative model in which the observed dynamics arise from intrinsic properties of the viral infection lifecycle rather than from cellular compartmentalization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

UKy-CAER Heat Integrated Transformative CO 2 Capture Process in Pulverized Coal Power Plants

The goal of this Phase II Topical Report is to summarize the work for public domain conducted on project DE-FE0031583. Building upon the Design Basis completed during Phase I and in accordance with the Statement of Project Objectives (SOPO), the University of Kentucky (UK) Center for Applied Energy Research (CAER) (Recipient) along with team members has completed the Front End Engineering Design (FEED) for its advanced, versatile post-combustion CO 2 capture system (CCS) at the 10 MWe large pilot scale to be installed at the Wyoming (WY) Integrated Test Center (ITC), using a heat integrated process with split-rich fed, two-stage stripping and any advanced solvent to enhance the CO 2 absorber performance and lower the cost of CO 2 capture. The proposed project (Phases I-III) involves the design, fabrication, installation, testing and evaluation of a large pilot scale facility that will demonstrate the UK CAER transformative CCS integrated with an operating power plant. The work performed in Phase I, detailed in the Phase I Topical Report that was submitted in March 2019, included formation of a project team, securing the host site, and completing pre-FEED design basis, a cost estimation, a preliminary techno-economic analysis (TEA) and an environmental information volume (EIV). The work performed in Phase II, detailed in this Phase II Topical Report, includes completion of FEEDs, completion of a process risk analysis (PRA), obtaining necessary permits, updating the EIV and TEA, updating the cost and schedule estimate for the Phase III scope of work (SOW) and securing the necessary cost share. Updated information is provided on the current status of the UK CAER CCS technology and the project is ready to begin immediately detailed design, construction and operation of the proposed pilot.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Enhancement of Distribution System State Estimation Using Pruned Physics-Aware Neural Networks

Realizing complete observability in the three-phase distribution system remains a challenge that hinders the implementation of classic state estimation algorithms. In this paper, a new method, called the pruned physics-aware neural network (P2N2), is developed to improve the voltage estimation accuracy in the distribution system. The method relies on the physical grid topology, which is used to design the connections between different hidden layers of a neural network model. To verify the proposed method, a numerical simulation based on one- year smart meter data of load consumptions for three-phase power flow is developed to generate the measurement and voltage state data. The IEEE 123-node system is selected as the test network to benchmark the proposed algorithm against the classic weighted least squares (WLS). Numerical results show that P2N2 outperforms WLS in terms of data redundancy and estimation accuracy.

distribution system state estimation↗

The pantropical response of soil moisture to El Niño

Abstract. The 2015–2016 El Niño event ranks as one of the most severe on record in terms of the magnitude and extent of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies generated in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Corresponding global impacts on the climate were expected to rival, or even surpass, those of the 1997–1998 severe El Niño event, which had SST anomalies that were similar in size. However, the 2015–2016 event failed to meet expectations for hydrologic change in many areas, including those expected to receive well above normal precipitation. To better understand how climate anomalies during an El Niño event impact soil moisture, we investigate changes in soil moisture in the humid tropics (between ±25∘) during the three most recent super El Niño events of 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015–2016, using data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). First, we use in situ soil moisture observations obtained from 16 sites across five continents to validate and bias-correct estimates from GLDAS (r2=0.54). Next, we apply a k-means cluster analysis to the soil moisture estimates during the El Niño mature phase, resulting in four groups of clustered data. The strongest and most consistent decreases in soil moisture occur in the Amazon basin and maritime southeastern Asia, while the most consistent increases occur over eastern Africa. In addition, we compare changes in soil moisture to both precipitation and evapotranspiration, which showed a lack of agreement in the direction of change between these variables and soil moisture most prominently in the southern Amazon basin, the Sahel and mainland southeastern Asia. Our results can be used to improve estimates of spatiotemporal differences in El Niño impacts on soil moisture in tropical hydrology and ecosystem models at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diffusion-Limited Kinetics in Reactive Systems

A proper representation of chemical kinetics is vital to understanding, modeling, and optimizing many important chemical processes. In liquid and surface phases, where diffusion is slow, the rate at which the reactants diffuse together limits the overall rate of many elementary reactions. Commonly, the textbook Smoluchowski theory is utilized to estimate effective rate coefficients in the liquid phase. On surfaces, modelers commonly resort to much more complex and expensive Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. Here, in this study, we extend the Smoluchowski model to allow the diffusing species to undergo chemical reactions and derive analytical formulas for the diffusion-limited rate coefficients for 3D, 2D, and 2D/3D interface cases. With these equations, we are able to demonstrate that when species react faster than they diffuse they can react orders of magnitude faster than predicted by Smoluchowski theory, through what we term “the reactive transport effect”. We validate the derived steady-state equations against particle Monte Carlo (PMC) simulations, KMC simulations, and non-steady-state solutions. Furthermore, using PMC and KMC simulations, we propose corrections that agree with all limits and the computed data for the 2D and 2D/3D interface steady-state equations, accounting for unique limitations in the associated derived equations. Additionally, we derive equations to handle couplings between diffusion-limited rate coefficients in reaction networks. We believe these equations should make it possible to run much more accurate mean-field simulations of liquids, surfaces, and liquid–surface interfaces accounting for diffusion limitations and the reactive transport effect.

Johnson, Matthew Sean↗

Temporal Ni K-Edge X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Study Reveals the Kinetics of the Ni Redox Behavior of the Iron-Nickel Oxide Bimetallic OER Catalyst

Operando X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) can be utilized to probe the phase and structural changes of FeNiOx and similar transition metal oxide electrocatalysts during electrocatalytic reactions. However, capturing the temporal changes occurring in the operando chemistry of electrocatalysts has been little studied. Here, in this work, we successfully capture the time-resolved changes at the Ni K-edge for both the X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) regions of an aqueous phase synthesized FeNiO x bimetallic nanoparticle electrocatalyst. During a stepped voltage experiment, the temporal change in the Ni K-edge was observed as the applied voltage was stepped from 0.7 to 0.8 V versus the silver/silver chloride reference electrode, and the change observed is associated with the Ni redox transition from the 2+ to 3+/4+ oxidation state. Individual XAS spectra were obtained in 90 s, and a total of 9 scans post voltage step showed a unique transition from a hydroxide to an oxyhydroxide phase. The shift in absorption edge energy position and the changes in spectral shape for individual scans explain the typically observed broadening of the Ni K-edge XANES spectrum during time-averaged operando XAS, and a kinetic analysis revealed a first-order observed rate constant, |k obs |, of 0.00426 s –1 and a half-life (t 1/2 ) of 163 s. Multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares analysis followed by linear combination fitting analysis for time-averaged versus time-resolved Ni K-edge changes upon voltage step show distinct differences in estimated contributions from Ni 2+ oxide/hydroxide phases. Detailed EXAFS modeling shows the phase transition from hydroxide to oxyhydroxide on top of the unchanged metallic core.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Estimating total attenuation using Rayleigh targets at cloud top: applications in multilayer and mixed-phase clouds observed by ground-based multifrequency radars

At millimeter wavelengths, attenuation by hydrometeors, such as liquid droplets or large snowflakes, is generally not negligible. When using multifrequency ground-based radar measurements, it is common practice to use the Rayleigh targets at cloud top as a reference in order to derive attenuation-corrected reflectivities and meaningful dual-frequency ratios (DFRs). By capitalizing on this idea, this study describes a new quality-controlled approach that aims at identifying regions of cloud where particle growth is negligible. The core of the method is the identification of a “Rayleigh plateau”, i.e., a large enough region near cloud top where the vertical gradient of DFR remains small. By analyzing co-located Ka–W band radar and microwave radiometer (MWR) observations taken at two European sites under various meteorological conditions, it is shown how the resulting estimates of differential path-integrated attenuation (ΔPIA) can be used to characterize hydrometeor properties. When the ΔPIA is predominantly produced by cloud liquid droplets, this technique alone can provide accurate estimates of the liquid water path. When combined with MWR observations, this methodology paves the way towards profiling the cloud liquid water, quality-flagging the MWR retrieval for rain and drizzle contamination, and/or estimating the snow differential attenuation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benefits and Limits of Phasing Alleles for Network Inference of Allopolyploid Complexes

Abstract Accurately reconstructing the reticulate histories of polyploids remains a central challenge for understanding plant evolution. Although phylogenetic networks can provide insights into relationships among polyploid lineages, inferring networks may be hindered by the complexities of homology determination in polyploid taxa. We use simulations to show that phasing alleles from allopolyploid individuals can improve phylogenetic network inference under the multispecies coalescent by obtaining the true network with fewer loci compared with haplotype consensus sequences or sequences with heterozygous bases represented as ambiguity codes. Phased allelic data can also improve divergence time estimates for networks, which is helpful for evaluating allopolyploid speciation hypotheses and proposing mechanisms of speciation. To achieve these outcomes in empirical data, we present a novel pipeline that leverages a recently developed phasing algorithm to reliably phase alleles from polyploids. This pipeline is especially appropriate for target enrichment data, where the depth of coverage is typically high enough to phase entire loci. We provide an empirical example in the North American Dryopteris fern complex that demonstrates insights from phased data as well as the challenges of network inference. We establish that our pipeline (PATÉ: Phased Alleles from Target Enrichment data) is capable of recovering a high proportion of phased loci from both diploids and polyploids. These data may improve network estimates compared with using haplotype consensus assemblies by accurately inferring the direction of gene flow, but statistical nonidentifiability of phylogenetic networks poses a barrier to inferring the evolutionary history of reticulate complexes.

Evolutionary Biology↗

Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought

Abstract. Snow droughts are commonly defined as below-average snowpack at a point in time, typically 1 April in the western United States (wUS). This definition is valuable for interpreting the state of the snowpack but obscures the temporal evolution of snow drought. Borrowing from dynamical systems theory, we applied phase diagrams to visually examine the daily evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) and accumulated precipitation conditions in maritime, intermountain, and continental snow climates in the wUS using station observations as well as spatially distributed estimates of SWE and precipitation. Using a percentile-based drought definition, phase diagrams of SWE and precipitation highlighted decision-relevant aspects of snow drought such as onset, evolution, and termination. The phase diagram approach can be used in tandem with spatially distributed estimates of daily SWE and precipitation to reveal variability in snow drought type and extent. When combined with streamflow or other environmental data, phase diagrams and spatial estimates of snow drought conditions can help inform drought monitoring and early warning systems and help link snow drought type and evolution to impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and recreation. A web tool is introduced allowing users to create real-time or historic snow drought phase diagrams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of the spray-induced wall stress acting on the ignition assistance device

This research introduces a novel wall-stress model called the Spray-Induced Wall Stress (SIWS) model, which considers the effects of spray-wall impingement and the resulting formation of wall stress within the Lagrangian spray modeling framework. The primary objective of this paper is to provide a mathematical description of the fundamental physics underlying the model. Subsequently, the proposed model is validated using existing experimental data. Here, the remainder of the study focuses on the practical application of the model to an ignition assistance device. Specifically, this device is installed in a compression ignition engine and designed to enhance ignition in aviation-fueled high-altitude aircraft propulsion systems. The research sheds light on the mechanical impulse caused by the high-speed impact of the spray jet, leading to the accumulation of mechanical stress on the rigid body of the ignition assistance device. Previous studies on fluid-structure interaction have only considered the interaction between the gas phase and the solid wall. However, the SIWS model incorporates the additional impact of the impinging liquid spray jet. Consequently, the simulated stress distribution on the ignition assistance device can be estimated by considering both the gas-phase-induced term and the spray-induced term simultaneously.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Observation-constrained kinetic modeling of isoprene SOA formation in the atmosphere

Isoprene has the largest global non-methane hydrocarbon emission, and the oxidation of isoprene plays a crucial role in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Two primary processes are known to contribute to SOA formation from isoprene oxidation: (1) the reactive uptake of isoprene-derived epoxides on acidic or aqueous particle surfaces and (2) the absorptive gas–particle partitioning of low-volatility oxidation products. In this study, we developed a new multiphase condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism that includes these processes with key molecular intermediates and products. The new mechanism was applied to simulate isoprene gas-phase oxidation products and SOA formation from previously published chamber experiments under a variety of conditions and atmospheric observations during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Studies (SOAS) field campaign. Our results show that SOA formation from most of the chamber experiments is reasonably reproduced using our mechanism, except when the concentration ratios of initial nitric oxide to isoprene exceed ~ 2, the formed SOA is significantly underpredicted. The SOAS simulations also reasonably agree with the measurements regarding the diurnal pattern and concentrations of different product categories, while the total isoprene SOA remains underestimated. The molecular compositions of the modeled SOA indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute to isoprene SOA more significantly than previously thought, with a median mass contribution of ~ 57 % to the total modeled isoprene SOA. However, this contribution is intricately intertwined with IEPOX-derived SOA (IEPOX: isoprene-derived epoxydiols), posing challenges for their differentiation using bulk aerosol composition analysis (e.g., the aerosol mass spectrometer with positive matrix factorization). Furthermore, the SOA from these pathways may vary greatly, mainly dependent on the volatility estimation and treatment of particle-phase processes (i.e., photolysis and hydrolysis). Our findings emphasize that the various pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models to more accurately predict isoprene SOA formation. The new condensed isoprene chemical mechanism can be further incorporated into regional-scale air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System (CMAQ), to assess isoprene SOA formation on a larger scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous Wireless Technology Detection in Seamless IoT Applications

The ever-increasing use of Internet of Things (IoT) devices results in the implementation of multiple wireless technologies that would not only cater their data rate requirements but also support various applications. To optimize the energy efficiency and security of the wireless transmission, it is imperative to identify the wireless technologies in various IoT implementations. Many of the existing approaches are based on measuring only the receiving signal strength indicator (RSSI). However, such approaches may not work well because of transmit power control and complex channel variations among different wireless technologies. In this article, we propose an autonomous wireless detection scheme that considers multiple distinguishable physical (PHY)-layer settings for real-time identification of wireless technologies for real-time applications. Specifically, the proposed scheme relies on the PHY-layer measurements of the targeted spectrum. Transmission settings, such as bandwidth, carrier frequency, and RSSI are estimated from the raw in-phase and quadrature-phase (I/Q) measurements. In addition, a symbol-level extraction scheme is implemented to extract unique features of modulation settings. These aforementioned features are applied to a machine learning process to identify the received wireless technologies. Compared with raw I/Q measurements, the extracted features are much simplified and, thus, the machine learning classifier can be designed with a simple structure for fast processing on IoT nodes. Finally, the proposed schemes are primarily evaluated theoretically, followed by implementing them on a USRP software-defined radio (SDR)-based hardware testbed. The evaluation results demonstrate high accuracy in the real-time detection of different wireless technologies for seamless IoT applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The effect of interfacial phenomena on gas solubility measurements in molten salts

The behavior of fission gases in molten fuel salt reactors governs activity transport from the reactor and can also affect the performance of the reactor itself. The gas solubility can be described thermodynamically by Henry’s law. However, the coupling of the condensed and gas phases depends on the interfacial area, which is difficult to measure or even to estimate. Surfaces of materials in the reactor will include disperse phases in the salt and porosity within the structural materials, covering a range of compositions and sizes. These attributes can affect measurements of fundamental properties such as gas solubility. Methods to obtain gas solubility, surface tension, interfacial energies, and bubble gas transport are reviewed. Recent data from manometric experiments are interpreted based on xenon sorption onto salt-wetted quartz.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗