Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “failure prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Design Criteria for X-CRV Honeycomb Panels: A Preliminary Study

The objective of this project is to perform the first step in developing structural design criteria for composite sandwich panels that are to be used in the aeroshell of the crew return vehicle (X-CRV). The preliminary concept includes a simplified method for assessing the allowable strength in the laminate material. Ultimately, it is intended that the design criteria be extended to address the global response of the vehicle. This task will require execution of a test program as outlined in the recommendation section of this report. The aeroshell of the X-CRV is comprised of composite sandwich panels consisting of fiberite face sheets and a phenolic honeycomb core. The function of the crew return vehicle is to enable the safe return of injured or ill crewpersons from space station, the evacuation of crew in case of emergency or the return of crew if an orbiter is not available. A significant objective of the X-CRV project is to demonstrate that this vehicle can be designed, built and operated at lower cost and at a significantly faster development time. Development time can be reduced by driving out issues in both structural design and manufacturing concurrently. This means that structural design and analysis progresses in conjunction with manufacturing and testing. Preliminary tests results on laminate coupons are presented in the report. Based on these results a method for detection material failure in the material is presented. In the long term, extrapolation of coupon data to large scale structures may be inadequate. Test coupons used to develop failure criteria at the material scale are typically small when compared to the overall structure. Their inherent small size indicates that the material failure criteria can be used to predict localized failure of the structure, however, it can not be used to predict failure for all failure modes. Some failure modes occur only when the structure or one of its sub-components are studied as a whole. Conversely, localized failure may not indicate failure of the structure as a whole and the amount of reserve capacity, if any, should be assessed. To develop a complete design criteria experimental studies of the sandwich panel are needed. Only then can a conservative and accurate design criteria be developed. This criteria should include effects of flaws and defects, and environmental factors such as temperature and moisture. Preliminary results presented in this report suggest that a simplified analysis can be used to predict the strength of a laminate. Testing for environmental effects have yet to be included in this work. The so called 'rogue flaw test' appears to be a promising method for assessing the effect of a defect in a laminate. This method fits in quite well with the philosophy of achieving a damage tolerant design.

Caccese, Vincent↗
NASA NTRS1992

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with holes

This paper summarizes a study focused on understanding the failure mechanisms present in a plate with a centrally located circular hole loaded inplane into the postbuckling range of deflections. The study was numerical and experimental in nature and had as a goal the a priori prediction of failure using existing failure data from several sources, together with a stress analysis. The maximum stress failure criterion was used to predict failure and both intra- and interlaminar stresses were considered. Four laminates were considered. The phenomenon of modal interaction, or the jumping from one deformed configuration to another, is discussed. With this jumping, the plate configuration may change from one half-wave in the loading direction to two half-waves in the loading direction. The study concludes that the failure in (+/-45/0/90)2s and (+/-45/2(2))2s laminates is due to fiber compression failure and is predictable. The failure load is, for the most part, independent of response configuration. The (+/-45/0/(6))s laminate fails due to interlaminar shear along the simple support, while the response and failure of the (+/-45)4s laminate is governed to a large degree by material nonlinearities and progressive failure.

Lee, H. H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pin-pointing Node Failures in HPC Systems

Automated fault prediction and diagnosis in HPC systems needs to be efficient for better system resilience. With increasing scalability required for exascale, accurate fault prediction aiding in quick remedy is hard. With changing supercomputer architectures, distilling fault data from the noisy raw logs requires substantial efforts. Predicting node failures in such voluminous system logs is challenging. To this end, we investigate an interesting way to pin-point node failures in such supercomputing systems. Our study on Cray system data with automated machine learning tools suggests that specific patterns of event messages on node unavailability can be indicator to node failures. This data extraction coupled with system and job data correlation helps in devising a methodology to predict node failures and their location over a specific time frame. This work aims to enable broader applicability for a generic fault prediction framework.

Roman, E↗
NASA NTRS2005

Torsion of Noncircular Composite Cylinders

The paper presents a brief overview of the predicted deformation and failure characteristics of noncircular composite cylinders subjected to torsion. Using a numerical analysis, elliptical cylinders with a minor-to-major diameter ratio of 0.7 are considered. Counterpart circular cylinders with the same circumference as the elliptical cylinders are included for comparison. The cylinders are constructed of a medium-modulus graphite-epoxy material in a quasi-isotropic lay-up. Imperfections generated from the buckling mode shapes are included in the initial cross-sectional geometry of the cylinders. Deformations until first fiber failure, as predicted using the maximum stress failure criterion and a material degradation scheme, are presented. For increasing levels of torsion, the deformations of the elliptical cylinders, in the form of wrinkling of the cylinder wall, occur primarily in the flatter regions of the cross section. By comparison the wrinkling deformations of the circular cylinders are more uniformly distributed around the circumference. Differences in the initial failure and damage progression and the overall torque vs. twist relationship between the elliptical and circular cylinders are presented. Despite differences in the response as the cylinders are being loaded, at first fiber failure the torque and twist for the elliptical and circular cylinders nearly coincide.

Rouse, Marshall↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting cell-to-cell failure propagation and limits of propagation in lithium-ion cell stacks

Thermal runaway of lithium-ion batteries is a risk that is magnified when stacks of lithium-ion cells are used for large scale energy storage. When limits of propagation can be identified so that systems can be designed to prevent large scale cascading failure even if a failure does occur, these systems will be safer. This work addresses the prediction of cell-to-cell failure propagation and the propagation limits in lithium-ion cell stacks to better understand and identify safe designs. A thermal-runaway model is presented based on recent developments in thermochemical source terms. It is noted that propagating failure is characterized by temperatures above which calorimetry data is available. Results show high temperature propagating failure predictions are too rapid unless an intra-particle diffusion limit is included, introducing a Damköhler number limiter into the rate expression. This new model form is evaluated against cell-to-cell failure propagation where the end cell of a stack is forced into thermal runaway through a nail-induced short circuit. Limits of propagation for this configuration are identified. Results show cell-to-cell propagation predictions are consistent with measurements over a range of cell states of charge and with the introduction of metal plates between cells to add system heat capacity representative of structural members. This consistency extends from scenarios where propagation occurs through scenarios where propagation is prevented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1991

A Dynamic Failure Model for Predicting the Impact that a Program Location has on the Program

This paper presents a dynamic technique for predicting the effect that a "location" of a program will have on the program's computational behavior. The technique is based on the three necessary and sufficient conditions for software failure to occur: (1) a fault must be executed, (2) the fault must adversely affect the data state, and (3) the adverse effect in a data state must affect program output. In order to predict the effect that a location of a program will have on the program's computational behavior, the following characteristics of each program location are estimated: (1) the probability that a location of the program is executed, (2) the probability that a location of the program noticeably affects the program state created by the location, and (3) the probability that the data states created by a location affect the program's output. With estimates of these characteristics for each location in a program, we can predict those locations where a fault can more easily remain undetected during testing, as well as predict the degree of testing necessary to be convinced that a fault is not remaining undetected in a particular location.

Voas, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods and systems for diagnosis of failure mechanisms and for prediction of lifetime of metal batteries

Methods for diagnosing failure mechanisms and for predicting lifetime of metal batteries include monitoring rest voltage and Coulombic Efficiency over relatively few cycles to provide profiles that indicate, by the trends thereof, a particular failure mechanism (e.g., electrolyte depletion, loss of metal inventory, increased cell impedance). The methods also include cycling over relatively few cycles an anode-free cell, having the same cathode and electrolyte as the metal battery, but with a current collector instead of the anode. Discharge capacity is monitored and profiled, and a discharge capacity curve is fitted to the discharge capacity profile to discern a capacity retention per cycle. The lifetime of the metal battery is determined using the capacity retention per cycle discerned from the anode-free cell. Related systems include a metal-based battery and an anode-free cell or a battery cell reconfigurable between a metal-based and an anode-free cell.

Li, Bin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predicting EBW detonator failure using DSC data

Exploding bridgewire detonators (EBWs) containing pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) exposed to high temperatures may not function following discharge of the design electrical firing signal from a charged capacitor. Knowing functionality of these arbitrarily facing EBWs is crucial when making safety assessments of detonators in accidental fires. Orientation effects are only significant when the PETN is partially melted. Here, the melting temperature can be measured with a differential scanning calorimeter. Nonmelting EBWs will be fully functional provided the detonator never exceeds 406 K (133 °C) for at least 1 h. Conversely, EBWs will not be functional once the average input pellet temperature exceeds 414 K (141 °C) for a least 1 min which is long enough to cause the PETN input pellet to completely melt. Functionality of the EBWs at temperatures between 406 and 414 K will depend on orientation and can be predicted using a stratification model for downward facing detonators but is more complex for arbitrary orientations. A conservative rule of thumb would be to assume that the EBWs are fully functional unless the PETN input pellet has completely melted.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1995

Static stability of the Space Station solar array FASTMast structure

The combined loads test of the 3-Bay FASTMast marks the end of the Lewis Research Center (LeRC) effort to characterize the behavior of the principal Space Station solar array support structure. The primary objective of this test and analysis effort was to develop a method to predict structural stability failure modes under flight-like applied loads. Included at the beginning of this report is a brief historical perspective of the hardware design development and FASTMast structural stability problem evolution. Once an understanding of the solution process has been established, test and analysis details are presented and related to the postulated failure theories. The combined load test series subjected the structure to a combination of transverse, moment, and torsion loads similar to that expected in the service environment. Nonlinear finite element (FE) models were developed and large displacement analyses were performed to support the test effort and failure mode predictions. Details of the test configuration as well as test and analysis results are presented. The results were then critiqued to establish valid and successful support of the failure mode assessments. Finally, study conclusions are drawn and recommendations for safe operation of the FASTMast structure are presented for consideration.

Shaker, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling The Effects of Loading Scenario and Thermal Expansion Coefficient on Potential Failure of Cryo-compressed Hydrogen Vessels

A multiscale thermomechanical model for a simplified Type-3 cryogenic compressed hydrogen (H2) storage vessel is developed in this paper. The model accounts for the temperature-dependent elastic-plastic behavior of the vessel carbon/epoxy composite overwrap and aluminum alloy liner. The homogenized thermo-elastic-plastic behavior for the individual laminas of the vessel layup is obtained by an incremental Eshelby-Mori-Tanka approach associated with a micromechanical failure criterion to predict lamina failure while a standard elastic-plastic constitutive model is used to describe the behavior of a typical aluminum alloy assumed for the liner. The vessel response to external loadings is achieved by a finite element method. Four loading scenarios representing four thermomechanical cycles applied to the vessel are analyzed to evaluate constituent and lamina stresses as well as the associate failure criterion during the cycle according to these scenarios. The model can provide helpful guidance to mitigate thermal stresses by an adequate selection of loading scenario, optimizing the layup and by tailoring thermomechanical properties of the resin matrix.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

A methodology for probabilistic prediction of structural failures of launch vehicle propulsion systems

A quantitative methodology for estimating the probability of occurrence of critical structural failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems during mission operation is presented. In this approach, engineering analysis models that characterize specific failure modes based on the physics and mechanics of the failure phenomenon are used in a prescribed probabalistic structure in which quantified uncertainty in the information used in the analysis and quantified uncertainty of the engineering analysis models themselves are both considered in estimating failure risk. The methodology is applicable to high cycle fatigue, low cycle fatigue, flaw propagation stress rupture, and other failure modes of launch vehicle propulsion systems and other space-flight systems. The probabalistic failure assessment presented provides the capability of performing quantitative analyses to rank options to improve reliability, thereby enabling limited financial resources of development and improvement programs to be more effectively allocated.

Moore, N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Linear and non-linear failure analysis of composite laminates with transverse shear

A finite element computational procedure has been developed to find linear and nonlinear (von Karman) first-ply failure loads of composite laminates subjected to in-plane and transverse loads. The FEM is based on first-order shear deformation theory and several phenomenological failure criteria. It is found that the failure loads predicted by various failure criteria differ from one another by a maximum of 35 percent in the case of linear loads and 50 percent in the case of nonlinear loads; the failure locations differ from each other in a random way. It is demonstrated that the difference between the linear and nonlinear failure loads is large in the case of transversely loaded simply supported laminates and thin plates. The difference is found to be quite small in the case of in-plane (tensile) loading and thick laminates.

Reddy, Y. S. N.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Micromechanics and Piezo Enhancements of HyperSizer

The commercial HyperSizer aerospace-composite-material-structure-sizing software has been enhanced by incorporating capabilities for representing coupled thermal, piezoelectric, and piezomagnetic effects on the levels of plies, laminates, and stiffened panels. This enhancement is based on a formulation similar to that of the pre-existing HyperSizer capability for representing thermal effects. As a result of this enhancement, the electric and/or magnetic response of a material or structure to a mechanical or thermal load, or its mechanical response to an applied electric or magnetic field can be predicted. In another major enhancement, a capability for representing micromechanical effects has been added by establishment of a linkage between HyperSizer and Glenn Research Center s Micromechanics Analysis Code With Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) computer program, which was described in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles. The linkage enables Hyper- Sizer to localize to the fiber and matrix level rather than only to the ply level, making it possible to predict local failures and to predict properties of plies from those of the component fiber and matrix materials. Advanced graphical user interfaces and database structures have been developed to support the new HyperSizer micromechanics capabilities.

Arnold, Steven M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Generalized Method of Cells↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗
NASA NTRS2019

Test and Analysis Correlation for Sandwich Composite Longitudinal Joint Specimens

The NASA Composite Technology for Exploration (CTE) project is tasked with evaluating methods to analyze and manufacture composite joints for potential use in block upgrades to the Space Launch System (SLS) launch-vehicle structures such as the Payload Attach Fitting (PAF). To perform this task, the CTE project has initiated test and analysis correlation studies for composite joints under various loading conditions. Herein, NASA-developed numerical models are correlated with the experimental results from a series of tension tests. Pretest strain results matched the far-field test data well, but did not capture the nonlinear response in the vicinity of the joint. A refined pretest analytical model was modified to represent progressive failure of the specimens at failure locations observed during the experimental tests. The nonlinear strain response from this progressive failure model predicted the delamination failure load within 15% of the test data, but underpredicted the nonlinearity of the strain response. Further study of composite material models that account for the nonlinear shear response of fabric composites is recommended for the composite joint structures considered in this paper.

Mason, Brian H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation As Run Predictions Using PARFUME

The PARticle FUel ModEl (PARFUME), a fuel performance modeling code used for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, was used to model the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 irradiation test using as-run physics and thermal data. The AGR-5/6/7 irradiation test consists of the combined fifth, sixth, and seventh planned irradiations of the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The AGR-5/6/7 test train is a multi-capsule, instrumented experiment that is designed for irradiation in the 133.4-mm diameter northeast flux trap position of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory. Each capsule contains compacts filled with uranium oxycarbide unaltered fuel particles. This report documents the calculations performed to predict the failure probability of tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated fuel particles during the AGR-5/6/7 experiment. In addition, this report documents the calculated fission product release fraction from the fuel. The calculations include modeling of the AGR 5/6/7 irradiation that occurred from February 2018 to July 2020 over nine ATR cycles, including six normal cycles and three power axial locator mechanism cycles, for a total of approximately 376 effective full power days (EFPD). The irradiation conditions and material properties of the AGR-5/6/7 test predicted zero fuel particle failures in Capsules 1, 3, and 4. Fuel particle failures were predicted in two of the compacts in Capsule 2 and one particle failure is predicted in each one of the compacts in Capsule 5. All compacts that exhibited fuel particle failures predicted by PARFUME were caused by localized stress concentrations in the silicon carbide (SiC) layer caused by cracking in the inner pyrolytic (IPyC) layer. In addition, shrinkage of the buffer and IPyC layer during irradiation resulted in formation of a buffer-IPyC gap. Compacts with a lower irradiation temperature and fluence experienced the smallest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Conversely, higher irradiated temperature compacts with a high fluence experienced the largest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Compact 3-6-3 experienced the largest buffer IPyC gap formation of just under 21.7 µm. The release fraction of fission products silver (Ag), cesium (Cs), and strontium (Sr) vary depending on capsule location and irradiation temperature. The maximum release fraction of Ag occurs in Capsule 3, reaching up to 59.5% for the TRISO fuel particles (compact 3-6-3). The release fraction of the other two fission products, Cs and Sr, are much smaller. A maximum Cs release fraction of 1.1% occurred in compact 3-4-3 and 4.4% for Sr in compact 3-6-3.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗