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At least 253 records · Page 14

TPSAS-NF1676L-28149-DND

An Optimal Estimation (OE) inversion method has been developed to retrieve vertical profiles of aerosol size distributions, volume/surface concentrations, complex refractive indices, and single scattering albedos using the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) and polarimeter measurements. By combining the active and passive remote sensing data, we can take advantages of the high vertical resolution of the lidar measurements and the high information content of the combined observations. There are three components to the new retrieval system: 1) simultaneous aerosol vertical profile retrieval using HSRL data, 2) standalone aerosol retrieval using Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP), and 3) combined HSRL and RSP optimal estimation retrieval. For the LIDAR retrieval, we solve for number concentrations, mode fractions, aerosol size distributions, and real and imaginary part of refractive indices simultaneously. Based on this information, other parameters such as effective particle radius, surface and volume concentration, single scattering albedo can be derived. The combined HSRL-polarimeter algorithm will provide improved single scattering albedo and refractive index retrievals. The newly developed retrieval algorithm is very fast, and it provides an optimal estimation solution with associated error estimates. By solving for the aerosol vertical profiles using HSRL extinctions and backscattering coefficients from different layers, the new OE method can effectively reduce the impact of measurement noise on the retrieved aerosol microphysical properties. It also enables us to effectively combing HSRL and RSP data in the single OE retrieval system since the passive polarimeter instruments measure path-integrated intensity and polarizations. We have performed sensitivity studies using simulated data and applied the OE algorithms to NASA airborne field data measured by the HSRL-2 and the RSP instruments.

Xu Liu↗

Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA

To date, while the use of CFD is prevalent, very few efforts have been undertaken that truly attempt to document all (or even most) of the sources of uncertainty in the simulations. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the design research and engineering community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. This is especially true for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems due to the environment, scale, and duration limitations of ground test facilities. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. Hence, a major obstacle that has prevented the adoption of UQ methods for engineering design and development work is the lack of a tool set to automate most (if not all) of the UQ workflow. Towards this end, the SANDIA package DAKOTA (which has been developed to drive both UQ and optimization processes) will be tightly wrapped around the VULCAN-CFD code to automate the uncertainty quantification process. The automated process will be applied to an isolator turbulence model validation exercise that has previously been documented using a manual approach to the UQ process. Hence, the focus of this paper will be documenting the level to which automation can hide the UQ process details from the CFD practitioner rather than the UQ method itself.

CFD↗

A Practical Approach to Uncertainty Quantification Using Probability Boxes

To date, while the use of CFD for aerospace vehicle design and development is prevalent, the documentation of uncertainties associated with the simulations are rare. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the research and engineering design community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. These factors have prevented the adoption of UQ methods in the engineering design and development cycle. This presentation will outline a credible approach to UQ using Probability Boxes that is straightforward to apply, and can readily be automated using existing UQ tool sets such as the DAKOTA packaged developed at Sandia. The added expense incurred when moving away from a deterministic CFD process to a stochastic one that captures uncertainties to enable risk-informed decision making will be discussed, as well as effective ways to reduce the computational costs.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Light-Robust Pole-from-Silhouette Algorithm and Visual-Hull Estimation for Autonomous Optical Navigation to an Unknown Small Body

We present an advanced Pole-from-Silhouette (PFS) algorithm, which is robust to illumination conditions and non-zero sun phase. PFS is an important step in the optical navigation pipeline for an autonomous small spacecraft to approach an unknown small body. The algo- rithm estimates the rotation pole and 3D shape (visual hull) of the small body using only the lit pixels within the silhouette of the small body, the body’s rotation rate, the spacecraft attitude, and the spacecraft-target relative distance, which is estimated from orbit determination. We present detailed numerical simulations and multiple sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed PFS algorithm in different scenarios and target bodies.

Nesnas, Issa A.↗

Multibody Modeling and Simulation for the Mars Phoenix Lander Entry, Descent and Landing

A multi-body flight simulation for the Phoenix Mars Lander has been developed that includes high fidelity six degree-of-freedom rigid-body models for the parachute and lander system. The simulation provides attitude and rate history predictions of all bodies throughout the flight, as well as loads on each of the connecting lines. In so doing, a realistic behavior of the descending parachute/lander system dynamics can be simulated that allows assessment of the Phoenix descent performance and identification of potential sensitivities for landing. This simulation provides a complete end-to-end capability of modeling the entire entry, descent, and landing sequence for the mission. Time histories of the parachute and lander aerodynamic angles are presented. The response of the lander system to various wind models and wind shears is shown to be acceptable. Monte Carlo simulation results are also presented.

Queen, Eric M.↗

Comparative evaluation of twenty pilot workload assessment measure using a psychomotor task in a moving base aircraft simulator

A comparison of the sensitivity and intrusion of twenty pilot workload assessment techniques was conducted using a psychomotor loading task in a three degree of freedom moving base aircraft simulator. The twenty techniques included opinion measures, spare mental capacity measures, physiological measures, eye behavior measures, and primary task performance measures. The primary task was an instrument landing system (ILS) approach and landing. All measures were recorded between the outer marker and the middle marker on the approach. Three levels (low, medium, and high) of psychomotor load were obtained by the combined manipulation of windgust disturbance level and simulated aircraft pitch stability. Six instrument rated pilots participated in four seasons lasting approximately three hours each.

Connor, S. A.↗

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Evaluation of Voronoi Meshes for Large Eddy Simulations of High Lift Aerodynamics

Numerical sensitivity to 3 different Voronoi seeding methods is investigated for Large Eddy Simulations (LES). A second order accurate, non-dissipative finite volume discretization is used to systematically investigate the effects of different polyhedral Voronoi mesh types using a sequence of three canonical problems with increasing complexity. First, inviscid isentropic vortex propagation is studied to demonstrate the substantial reduction of errors for rhombic dodecahedron and truncated octahedral cell types over Cartesian hexagonal cells of identical spacing. Furthermore, the reduction of errors induced at cell-size transitions (grid-coarsening interfaces) due to Lloyd smoothing iterations is quantified. It is shown that by utilizing an appropriate viscous flux discretization, a constant coefficient subgrid scale model is sufficient for non-linear stability at the 2:1 cell-size transitions on polyhedral grids, although some further error reduction does occur when smoothing is utilized. Next, forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence at an asymptotically large Reynolds number is studied to demonstrate the non-dissipative character of the inviscid flux discretization, and the non-linear robustness and accuracy offered by the viscous flux discretization using a subgrid scale model for all three Voronoi grid types. Finally,Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) are performed to study the high-lift aerodynamics on the McDonnell Douglas 30P30N multi-element airfoil at two distinct grid levels and for two distinct Voronoi cell types. The formulation is shown to predict the aerodynamic loading with high accuracy at all angles of attack when sufficient resolution is reached, and the hexagonal prism grid topology, while computationally more expensive, has higher effective resolution compared to the Cartesian grid topology with the same spacing.

TTT↗

Evaluation of Voronoi Meshes for Large Eddy Simulations of High Lift Aerodynamics

Numerical sensitivity to 3 different Voronoi seeding methods is investigated for Large Eddy Simulations (LES). A second order accurate, non-dissipative finite volume discretization is used to systematically investigate the effects of different polyhedral Voronoi mesh types using a sequence of three canonical problems with increasing complexity. First, inviscid isentropic vortex propagation is studied to demonstrate the substantial reduction of errors for rhombic dodecahedron and truncated octahedral cell types over Cartesian hexagonal cells of identical spacing. Furthermore, the reduction of errors induced at cell-size transitions (grid-coarsening interfaces) due to Lloyd smoothing iterations is quantified. It is shown that by utilizing an appropriate viscous flux discretization, a constant coefficient subgrid scale model is sufficient for non-linear stability at the 2:1 cell-size transitions on polyhedral grids, although some further error reduction does occur when smoothing is utilized. Next, forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence at an asymptotically large Reynolds number is studied to demonstrate the non-dissipative character of the inviscid flux discretization, and the non-linear robustness and accuracy offered by the viscous flux discretization using a subgrid scale model for all three Voronoi grid types. Finally, Wall-Modeled Large Eddy Simulations (WMLES) are performed to study the high-lift aerodynamics on the McDonnell Douglas 30P30N multi-element airfoil at two distinct grid levels and for two distinct Voronoi cell types. The formulation is shown to predict the aerodynamic loading with high accuracy at all angles of attack when sufficient resolution is reached, and the hexagonal prism grid topology, while computationally more expensive, has higher effective resolution compared to the Cartesian grid topology with the same spacing.

TTT↗

Sensitivity of Spruce/Moss Boreal Forest Net Ecosystem Productivity to Seasonal Anomalies in Weather

Abstract. A process-oriented, daily time step model of a spruce/moss boreal ecosystem simulated 1994 and 1995 productivity for a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study site near Thompson, Manitoba. Simulated black spruce net primary productivity (NPP) was 139 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 112 in 1995; feathermoss NPP was 13.0 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 9.7 in 1995; decomposition was 126 g C m(exp -2) in 1994 and 130 in 1995; net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was an uptake of 26.3 g C m(exp -2)in 1994 and 2.5 in 1995. A very dry period for the first half of the 1995 summer was the major cause of that year's lower productivity. Sensitivity simulations explored the impact of 2-month long warmer, cooler, wetter, and drier spells on ecosystem productivity. Warmer summers decreased spruce NPP, moss NPP, and NEP; cooler summers had the opposite effect. Earlier snowmelt (due to either warmer spring temperatures or reduced winter precipitation) increased moss and spruce NPP; later snowmelt had the opposite effect. The largest effect on decomposition was a 5% reduction due to a drier summer. One-month droughts (April through October) were also imposed on 1975 base year weather. Early summer droughts reduced moss annual NPP by -30-40%; summer droughts reduced spruce annual NPP by 10%; late summer droughts increased moss NPP by about 20% due to reduced respiration; May to September monthly droughts reduced heterotrophic respiration by about 10%. Variability in NEP was up to roughly +/- 35%. Finally, 1975 growing season precipitation was redistributed into frequent, small rainstorms and infrequent, large rainstorms. These changes had no effect on spruce NPP. Frequent rainstorms increased decomposition by a few percent, moss NPP by 50%, and NEP by 20%. Infrequent rainstorms decreased decomposition by 5%, moss NPP by 50% and NEP by 15%. The impact of anomalous weather patterns on productivity of this ecosystem depended on their timing during the year. Multiyear data sets are necessary to understand this behavior and test these types of models.

Frolking, Steve↗

Sensitivity of bone cell populations to weightlessness and simulated weightlessness

A rat suspension model for simulating certain aspects of weightlessness is discussed. Perturbations in physiological systems induced by this head down suspension model are verified by flight data. Findings of a suppression of osteoblast differentiation help explain the inhibition of bone formation inflight and during Earth-bound simulations. Since the anatomical site for these studies was in the maxilla, which is gravity loaded but non weightbearing in ground-based simulations, the similarity of bone cell kinetic changes, both inflight and in the ground-based model, suggest that fluid shifts rather than unloading may play an important role in bone alterations, at least at this sampling site.

Roberts, W. E.↗

The GEWEX Process Evaluation Study: GEWEX-PROES

Progress in realistically simulating the energy and water cycles in weather and climate models has been slower than desirable. Climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5), while more comprehensive than their predecessors, have shown little to no improvement in their biases in simulating key features of the climate system. As a result, uncertainties in global climate and hydrological sensitivities, and in the simulation of regional climate change, have not been reduced significantly. It is time to make use of these opportunities to significantly advance our understanding of key energy and water cycle processes at a wide range of space and time scales, and to provide a more insightful evaluation of the representation of these processes within models. This will require new ways of both analyzing the observations and diagnosing model behavior. The keys to success will be in skillfully combining different data sets and exploring relationships between them, as well as in the ability of models to reproduce those relationships correctly. In response to this challenge, a new GEWEX-wide activity, the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study, will take advantage of the opportunities that the combination of many of the existing data sets provide.

climate models↗

Satellite remote sensing of H2SO4 aerosol using the 8- to 12-microns window region: Application to Mount Pinatubo

Monitoring stratospheric aerosols containing H2SO4 using the brightness temperature (BT) difference between 11 and 8.3 microns (BT(sub 8)-BT(sub 11)) spectral channels is demonstrated using theoretical calculations and satellite observations. Assuming an aqueous solution of 50% and 75% sulfuric acid, radiative transfer calculations indicate that over oceans an increase in the optical depth of the stratospheric aerosol results in an increase in BT(sub 8)-BT(sub 11). Theoretical simulations suggest that the technique is sensitive to visible optical depths greater than approximately 0.15. The simulations also demonstrate a lack of sensitivity to the particle size distribution. Changes in pre- and post-Pinatubo observations by the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder 2 (HIRS2) on board the NOAA 10 are consistent with observed optical depth measurements and confirm the sensitivity of these channels to the presence of the aerosol. The technique is also applied to cold tropical convective clouds and desert regions where the signal, though evident, is less conclusive. Time series analysis is applied to the NOAA 10 and NOAA 12 combined BT(sub 8-BT(sub 11) observations to detect the periodicity of the spread of the volcanic aerosol. Over a region of the southern Pacific a 18- to 26-day period is present. Model simulations were conducted to demonstrate a trispectral with observations near 8, 11, and 12 microns. The trispectral approach has high potential in that the spectral signature of cirrus, water vapor, and H2SO4 aerosols are different. Observations from NOAA 10 and NOAA 11 are combined to demonstrate the capabilities of these infrared wavelengths of detecting the aerosol. The signal is clearly evident when a region of the South Atlantic is compared for pre- and post-Pinatubo conditions.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗

Blurring the Inputs: A Natural Language Approach to Sensitivity Analysis

To document model parameter uncertainties and to automate sensitivity analyses for numerical simulation codes, a natural-language-based method to specify tolerances has been developed. With this new method, uncertainties are expressed in a natural manner, i.e., as one would on an engineering drawing, namely, 5.25 +/- 0.01. This approach is robust and readily adapted to various application domains because it does not rely on parsing the particular structure of input file formats. Instead, tolerances of a standard format are added to existing fields within an input file. As a demonstration of the power of this simple, natural language approach, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis is performed for three disparate simulation codes: fluid dynamics (LAURA), radiation (HARA), and ablation (FIAT). Effort required to harness each code for sensitivity analysis was recorded to demonstrate the generality and flexibility of this new approach.

Kleb, William L.↗

The Role of Sea Ice in 2 x CO2 Climate Model Sensitivity: Hemispheric Dependencies - Part 2

How sensitive are doubled CO2 simulations to GCM control-run sea ice thickness and extent? This issue is examined in a series of 10 control-run simulations with different sea ice and corresponding doubled CO2 simulations. Results show that with increased control-run sea ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere, temperature sensitivity with climate change is enhanced, while there is little effect on temperature sensitivity of (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice thickness. In the Northern Hemisphere the situation is reversed: sea ice thickness is the key parameter, while (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice coverage are of less importance. In both cases, the quantity of sea ice that can be removed in the warmer climate is the determining factor. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage change had a larger impact on global temperature, because Northern Hemisphere sea ice was sufficiently thick to limit its response to doubled CO2, and sea ice changes generally occurred at higher latitudes, reducing the sea ice-albedo feedback. In both these experiments and earlier ones in which sea ice was not allowed to change, the model displayed a sensitivity of -0.02 C global warming per percent change in Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage.

Rind, D.↗

Thermochemical Ablation Analysis of the Orion Heatshield

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle will one day carry astronauts to the Moon and beyond, and Orion's heatshield is a critical component in ensuring their safe return to Earth. The Orion heatshield is the structural component responsible for absorbing the intense heating environment caused by re-entry to Earth's atmosphere. The heatshield is primarily composed of Avcoat, an ablative material that is consumed during the re-entry process. Ablation is primarily characterized by two processes: pyrolysis and recession. The decomposition of in-depth virgin material is known as pyrolysis. Recession occurs when the exposed surface of the heatshield reacts with the surrounding flow. The Orion heatshield design was changed from an individually filled Avcoat honeycomb to a molded block Avcoat design. The molded block Avcoat heatshield relies on an adhesive bond to keep it attached to the capsule. In some locations on the heatshield, the integrity of the adhesive bond cannot be verified. For these locations, a mechanical retention device was proposed. Avcoat ablation was modelled in CHAR and the in-depth virgin material temperatures were used in a Thermal Desktop model of the mechanical retention device. The retention device was analyzed and shown to cause a large increase in the maximum bondline temperature. In order to study the impact of individual ablation modelling parameters on the heatshield sizing process, a Monte Carlo simulation of the sizing process was proposed. The simulation will give the sensitivity of the ablation model to each of its input parameters. As part of the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on material properties were required for Avcoat. Several properties were difficult to acquire uncertainties for: the pyrolysis gas enthalpy, non-dimensional mass loss rate (B´c), and Arrhenius equation parameters. Variability in the elemental composition of Avcoat was used as the basis for determining the statistical uncertainty in pyrolysis gas enthalpy and B´c. A MATLAB program was developed to allow for faster, more accurate and automated computation of Arrhenius reaction parameters. These parameters are required for a material model to be used in the CHAR ablation analysis program. This MATLAB program, along with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data, was used to generate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for Avcoat. In addition, the TGA fitting program was developed to provide Arrhenius parameters for the ablation model of the gap filler material, RTV silicone.

Sixel, William↗