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At least 235 records · Page 13

Radius and equation of state constraints from massive neutron stars and GW190814

Motivated by the unknown nature of the 2.50–2.67M⊙ compact object in the binary merger event GW190814, we study the maximum neutron star mass based on constraints from low-energy nuclear physics, neutron star tidal deformabilities from GW170817, and simultaneous mass-radius measurements of PSR J0030+045 from NICER. Our prior distribution is based on a combination of nuclear modeling valid in the vicinity of normal nuclear densities together with the assumption of a maximally stiff equation of state at high densities, a choice that enables us to probe the connection between observed heavy neutron stars and the transition density at which conventional nuclear physics models must break down. Here we demonstrate that a modification of the highly uncertain suprasaturation density equation of state beyond 2.64 times normal nuclear density is required in order for chiral effective field theory models to be consistent with current neutron star observations and the existence of 2.6M⊙ neutron stars. We also show that the existence of very massive neutron stars strongly impacts the radii of ≈ 2.0M⊙ neutron stars (but not necessarily the radii of 1.4 M⊙ neutron stars), which further motivates future NICER radius measurements of PSR J1614 – 2230 and PSR J0740+6620.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Search for pair-produced vectorlike quarks coupling to light quarks in the lepton plus jets final state using 13 TeV p p collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for the pair production of heavy vectorlike quarks (VLQs) that each decay into a W boson and a light quark. This study focuses on events where one W boson decays into leptons and the other into hadrons. The search analyzed 140 fb -1 of pp collision data with $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, recorded by the ATLAS detector from 2015 to 2018 during run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider. The final state is characterized by a high-transverse-momentum isolated electron or muon, large missing transverse momentum, multiple small-radius jets, and a single large-radius jet identified as originating from the hadronic decay of a boosted W boson. With higher center-of-mass energy and integrated luminosity than in the run 1 search, and improved analysis tools, this analysis excludes VLQs (Q) with masses below 1530 GeV at 95% confidence level for the branching ratio $\mathscr{B}$⁡(Q →W⁢q) =1, an improvement of 840 GeV on the previous ATLAS limit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Gravitational Test beyond the First Post-Newtonian Order with the Shadow of the M87 Black Hole

In this study, the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of the central source in M87 have led to the first measurement of the size of a black-hole shadow. This observation offers a new and clean gravitational test of the black-hole metric in the strong-field regime. We show analytically that spacetimes that deviate from the Kerr metric but satisfy weak-field tests can lead to large deviations in the predicted black-hole shadows that are inconsistent with even the current EHT measurements. We use numerical calculations of regular, parametric, non-Kerr metrics to identify the common characteristic among these different parametrizations that control the predicted shadow size. We show that the shadow-size measurements place significant constraints on deviation parameters that control the second post-Newtonian and higher orders of each metric and are, therefore, inaccessible to weak-field tests. The new constraints are complementary to those imposed by observations of gravitational waves from stellar-mass sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Efficacy and Safety of Mesalamine and Probiotics in Mild‐to‐Moderate Ulcerative Colitis: A Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

Objective . To evaluate the efficacy and safety of mesalamine in conjunction with probiotics for ulcerative colitis. Methods . Random controlled trials (RCTs) were searched in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, and VIP (VIP Database for Chinese Technical Periodicals) from inception to October 2019. Methodological quality was assessed by the Cochrane Collaboration tool. The quality of evidence was rated by the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE). Data analysis was carried out in Review Manager 5.3. Results . A total of fifteen studies met the criteria for inclusion. Thirteen studies reported the clinical efficacy, three studies provided data on the clinical symptom scores, two trials reported disease activity index, four studies evaluated endoscopic score, and twelve studies reported adverse events. For ulcerative colitis (UC), mesalamine and probiotics had better clinical efficacy than mesalamine alone (≤8 weeks: RR = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07–1.18, P < 0.0001; >8 weeks: RR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.11–1.41, P = 0.0003). On the clinical symptom scores, disease activity index, and endoscopic score, UC patients receiving mesalamine and probiotics had significant difference than patients receiving mesalazine alone (MD = −2.02, 95% CI: −3.28 to −0.76, P = 0.002; MD = −1.20, 95% CI: −1.76 to −0.65, P < 0.001; and MD = −0.42, 95% CI: −0.61 to −0.23, P < 0.0001, respectively). There was no statistically significant difference in adverse events between the two groups (RR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.54 to 1.43, P = 0.60). Conclusion . Our meta‐analysis results supported that mesalamine and probiotics were effective and safe in treating ulcerative colitis.

Tian, Chunying↗

Characterizing Thunderstorm Gust Fronts near Complex Terrain

Fire safety, aviation, wind energy, and structural-engineering operations are impacted by thunderstorm outflow boundaries or gust fronts (GFs) particularly when they occur in mountainous terrain. For example, during the 2013 Arizona Yarnell Hill Fire, 19 firefighters were killed as a result of sudden changes in fire behavior triggered by a passing GF. Knowledge of GF behavior in complex terrain also determines departure and landing operations at nearby airports, and GFs can induce exceptional structural loads on wind turbines. Furthermore, while most examinations of GF characteristics focus on well-organized convection in areas such as the Great Plains, here the investigation is broadened to explore GF characteristics that evolve near the complex terrain of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Using in situ observations from meteorological towers, as well as data from wind-profiling lidars and a microwave radiometer, 24 GF events are assessed to quantify changes in wind, temperature, humidity, and turbulence in the lowest 300 m AGL as these GFs passed over the instruments. The changes in magnitude for all variables are on average weaker in the Colorado Front Range than those typically observed from organized, severe storms in flatter regions. Most events from this study experience an increase in wind speed from 1 to 8 m s -1 , relative humidity from 1% to 8%, and weak vertical motion from 0.3 to 3.6 m s -1 during GF passage while temperature drops by 0.2°–3°C and turbulent kinetic energy peaks at >4 m2 s -2 . Vertical profiles reveal that these changes vary little with height in the lowest 300 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Keystone Solar Future Project (KSFP)

The Keystone Solar Future Project (KSFP, also referred to as “Keystone Project” in the report) implements a cost-effective, secure, reliable, and safe technology platform that paves the way for future interconnected distributed energy resources (DER), creates a framework that enables high penetration of DER, and transforms the DER interconnection process. The project is important and necessary in a few aspects. First, the industry definition of Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS) is not yet validated against field deployments and mostly implemented in small pilots relying on third party integration. Keystone project implements a direct plug and play communication to inverter based DER systems. Secondly, most interconnection application portal is not yet fully integrated with back-end system, thus lacks the capability to drive a complete and accurate modeling of DER assets into the planning and operational systems. Keystone project rolled out a fully integrated modeling process of DERs from interconnection to operational management. Lastly, customers were given an opportunity to learn about the advanced functions of the inverters and take full advantages of their benefits through participation in the pilot program. During the project, the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of DER management were investigated and demonstrated in real life events and simulation studies. The project highlighted the importance of coordinated DER interconnection, installation and management with the rest of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Gap Flows Along the Columbia River Observed During the WFIP2 Field Campaign

Data collected in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin Area during the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) was used to study gap flow events in the region. In particular, the relationship between 200 m zonal wind speed and the zonal mesoscale pressure gradient at Troutdale (West of the gorge), Wasco (east of the gorge), and Boardman (farther east of the gorge) sites was examined. An objective criterion was used to identify 169 (Troutdale), 161 (Wasco), and 113 (Boardman) gap flow days that had weak synoptic forcing. The 200 m zonal wind speed exhibited a linear relationship with the zonal pressure gradient at Wasco during both easterly and westerly gap flow days at daily timescales. Such a relationship was only observed during easterly gap flow days at Troutdale and was not observed at Boardman. The zonal wind speed exhibited a diurnal cycle at Wasco and Boardman, with greater changes in the nighttime winds than the daytime winds due to changes in pressure gradient. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) between the observed pressure gradient at Wasco and that simulated by the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model in 3 km (HRRR-3km) and 750 m (HRRR-750m) horizontal resolution were 3.14 hPa and 0.57 hPa, respectively. However, the RMSDs for the 200 m zonal wind speed were 1.40 m s -1 for HRRR-3km and 1.20 m s -1 for HRRR- 750m. Improvement in simulating the zonal pressure gradient accompanied by negligible changes in simulating zonal wind speed due to higher horizontal resolution points to a complex interplay between different components of the model physics when simulating the meteorology. The HRRR-750m resolution model accurately mimicked the observed covariability (phase diagram) between the zonal pressure gradient and the 200 m zonal wind speed during the nighttime, but not during the daytime, suggesting model errors might be related to the representation of boundary layer processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Membrane Platforms to Interrogate Host-Pathogen Interactions

Membrane fusion is a critical step in enveloped virus entry and infection; however, molecular understanding of enveloped virus entry and treatment options remain limited. In recent decades, advances in imaging have facilitated the development of methods to study single virus events and membrane organization providing insight towards entry mechanisms. Through these advances, membrane composition and organization have been shown to play a critical role in the entry process. This LDRD uses model membrane platforms and basic biophysics to investigate entry mechanisms of enveloped viruses and understand membrane-based delivery technologies. This team has established foundations for using membrane-based platforms and biophysical techniques at Sandia to characterize membrane fusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Grand Scan of the pMSSM Parameter Space for Snowmass 2021

We present a flexible framework for interpretation of SUSY sensitivity studies for future colliders in terms of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM). We perform a grand scan of the pMSSM 19-dimensional parameter space that covers the accessible ranges of many collider scenarios, including electron, muon, and hadron colliders at a variety of center of mass energies. This enables comparisons of sensitivity and complementarity across different future experiments, including both colliders and precision measurements in the Cosmological and Rare Frontiers. The details of the scan framework are discussed, and the impact of future precision measurements on Higgs couplings, the anomalous muon magnetic moment, and dark matter quantities is presented. The next steps for this ongoing effort include performing studies with simulated events in order to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of selected future colliders in the context of the pMSSM.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of Differential Neutral Current Elastic $ν_μ$-Argon Scattering Cross Sections with MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85 ton active mass liquid-argon time projection chamber located in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beamline. MicroBooNE’s ability to detect low-energy protons allows us to study single proton events with momenta as low as 300 MeV/c. We present a measurement of the flux-averaged neutral-current elastic differential cross section for neutrinos scattering on argon as functions of four-momentum transfer squared, Q 2 , proton kinetic energy, momentum and angle with respect to the beam direction. Our measured cross section as a function of Q 2 goes as low Q 2 = 0.10 GeV2 . This is our first step towards extracting the strange quark contribution to the axial form factor, which is not only the least-constrained contribution to the neutral-current elastic scattering cross section but is also crucial for understanding the strange quark contribution to the proton spin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Measurement of Neutral Current Elastic Cross Section in MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE experiment is an 85 ton active volume liquid-argon time projection chamber located in the Fermilab Booster Neutrino Beamline. MicroBooNE’s ability to detect low-energy protons allows us to study single proton events with a four-momentum transfer squared, Q$^2$, as low as 0.10 GeV$^2$. We present a measurement of the flux-averaged neutral-current elastic differential cross sections for neutrinos scattering on argon as a function of Q$^2$, proton momentum and proton angle with respect to the direction of the neutrino beam. This is our first step towards extracting the strange quark contribution to the axial form factor, which is not only the least-constrained contribution to the neutral-current elastic scattering cross section but is also crucial for understanding the strange quark contribution to the proton spin.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Benchmarking numerical methods for impact and cratering applications

Large scale computational models are important for studying impact cratering events that are prevalent both on Earth and, more broadly, in this solar system. To address these problems, models must reliably account for both large length scales (e.g., kilometers) and relatively long time scales (hundreds of seconds). This work benchmarks two such approaches, a more traditional hydrodynamics approach and a finite-discrete element method (FDEM), for impact cratering applications. Both 2D and 3D results are discussed for two different impact velocities, 5 km/s and 20 km/s, striking normal to the target and, for 3D simulations, 45° from vertical. In addition, comparisons to previously published data are presented. Finally, differences in how these methods model damage are discussed. Ultimately, both approaches show successful modeling of several different impact scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling Electron Acceleration and Transport in the Early Impulsive Phase of the 2017 September 10th Solar Flare

The X8.2-class limb flare on 2017 September 10 is among the best studied solar flare events owing to its great similarity to the standard flare model and the broad coverage by multiple spacecraft and ground-based observations. These multiwavelength observations indicate that electron acceleration and transport are efficient in the reconnection and flare looptop regions. However, there lacks a comprehensive model for explaining and interpreting the multi-faceted observations. In this work, we model the electron acceleration and transport in the early impulsive phase of this flare. We solve the Parker transport equation that includes the primary acceleration mechanism during magnetic reconnection in the large-scale flare region modeled by MHD simulations. We find that electrons are accelerated up to several MeV and fill a large volume of the reconnection region, similar to the observations shown in microwaves. The electron spatial distribution and spectral shape in the looptop region agree well with those derived from the microwave and hard X-ray emissions before magnetic islands grow large and dominate the acceleration. Future emission modelings using the electron maps will enable direct comparison with microwave and hard X-ray observations. These results shed new light on the electron acceleration and transport in a broad region of solar flares within a data-constrained realistic flare geometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remote-sensing detectability of airborne Arctic dust

Remote-sensing (RS)-based estimates of Arctic dust are oftentimes overestimated due to a failure in separating out the dust contribution from that of spatially homogeneous clouds or low-altitude cloud-like plumes. A variety of illustrations are given with a particular emphasis on questionable claims of using brightness temperature differences (BTDs) as a signature indicator of Arctic dust transported from mid-latitude deserts or generated by local Arctic sources. While there is little dispute about the presence of both Asian and local dust across the Arctic, the direct RS detectability of airborne dust, as ascribed to satellite (MODIS and AVHRR) measurements of significantly negative brightness temperature differences at 11 and 12 µm (BTD 11–12 ), has been misrepresented in certain cases. While it is difficult to account for all examples of strongly negative BTD 11–12 values in the Arctic, it is unlikely that airborne dust plays a significant role. One much more likely contributor would be water clouds in the Arctic inversion layer. The RS detectability of the impact of Arctic dust (notably due to Arctic dust from local sources) can, however, be of significance. Sustained dust deposition can substantially decrease (visible to shortwave IR) snow and ice reflectance albedo (pan-chromatic reflectance) and the signal measured by satellite sensors. Significantly negative BTD 11–12 values would, however, only represent a limited area near the drainage basin sources according to our event-level case studies. The enhanced ice-nucleating particle (INP) role of local Arctic dust can, for example, induce significant changes in the properties of low-level mixed-phase clouds (cloud optical depth changes <~ 1) that can readily be detected by active and passive RS instruments. It is critical that the distinction between the RS detectability of airborne Arctic dust versus the RS detectability of the impacts of that dust be understood if we are to appropriately parameterize, for example, the radiative forcing influence of dust in this climate-sensitive region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inclusion of a cold hardening scheme to represent frost tolerance is essential to model realistic plant hydraulics in the Arctic–boreal zone in CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro

As temperatures decrease in autumn, vegetation of temperate and boreal ecosystems increases its tolerance to freezing. This process, known as hardening, results in a set of physiological changes at the molecular level that initiate modifications of cell membrane composition and the synthesis of anti-freeze proteins. Together with the freezing of extracellular water, anti-freeze proteins reduce plant water potentials and xylem conductivity. To represent the responses of vegetation to climate change, land surface schemes increasingly employ “hydrodynamic” models that represent the explicit fluxes of water from soil and through plants. The functioning of such schemes under frozen soil conditions, however, is poorly understood. Nonetheless, hydraulic processes are of major importance in the dynamics of these systems, which can suffer from, e.g., winter “frost drought” events. In this study, we implement a scheme that represents hardening into CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro. FATES-Hydro is a plant hydrodynamics module in FATES, a cohort model of vegetation physiology, growth, and dynamics hosted in CLM5.0. We find that, in frozen systems, it is necessary to introduce reductions in plant water loss associated with hardening to prevent winter desiccation. This work makes it possible to use CLM5.0-FATES-Hydro to model realistic impacts from frost droughts on vegetation growth and photosynthesis, leading to more reliable projections of how northern ecosystems respond to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Overview of Wind Energy Production Prediction Bias, Losses, and Uncertainties

The financing of a wind farm directly relates to the preconstruction energy yield assessments which estimate the annual energy production for the farm. The accuracy and the precision of the preconstruction energy estimates can dictate the profitability of the wind project. Historically, the wind industry tended to overpredict the annual energy production of wind farms. Experts have been dedicated to eliminating such prediction errors in the past decade, and recently the industry is recording near-zero average energy prediction bias. Herein, we present an overview of the energy yield assessment errors across the global wind energy industry. We identify a long-term trend of reduction in the overprediction bias, whereas the uncertainty associated with the prediction error is prominent. We also summarize the recent advancements of the wind resource assessment process that justify the bias reduction, including the improvements in modeling and measurement techniques. Additionally, because the energy losses and uncertainties substantially influence the prediction error, we document and examine the estimated and observed loss and uncertainty values from the literature, according to the proposed framework in the International Electrotechnical Commission 61400-15 wind resource assessment standard. From our findings, we highlight the opportunities for the industry to move forward, such as the validation and reduction of prediction uncertainty, and the prevention of energy losses caused by wake effect and environmental events. Overall, this study provides a summary on how the wind energy industry has been quantifying and reducing prediction errors, energy losses, and production uncertainties. Finally, for this work to be as reproducible as possible, we include all of the data used in the analysis in appendices to the manuscript.

literature review↗

Understanding Low Level Jets in the US Atlantic Offshore

Low level jets (LLJs) in the atmosphere exhibit a local windspeed maximum in the boundary layer, with positive shear beneath the jet and negative shear above the jet. Wind turbines tend to experience increased loads with varying wake recovery characteristics in the presence of an LLJ, therefore understanding the mechanism and impact of LLJs is crucial to wind energy development. The US Mid-Atlantic offshore region is a huge potential wind energy resource, yet LLJs in this area are poorly understood. In particular, the coastal offshore environment does not exhibit the same diurnal cycle that leads to strong LLJs in the well-characterized Great Plains region. In this study, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) plus lidar buoy data to identify case studies for LLJ events in 2020 in the New York Bight. A reduced order model is presented to explain the onset of these events based on the competing effects of baroclinicity and eddy diffusivity. Finally, using the macro-scale WRF, we drive a micro-scale large eddy simulation (LES) to generate a more detailed characterization of the Marine Boundary Layer during an LLJ. Gaining a better understanding of LLJs and their impacts on offshore wind in the mid-Atlantic is crucial for a transition toward renewable energy.

atmospheric boundary layer↗