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DOE OSTI2021

Hysteresis Patterns of Watershed Nitrogen Retention and Loss Over the Past 50 years in United States Hydrological Basins

Patterns of watershed nitrogen (N) retention and loss are shaped by how watershed biogeochemical processes retain, biogeochemically transform, and lose incoming atmospheric deposition of N. Loss patterns represented by concentration, discharge, and their associated stream exports are important indicators of integrated watershed N retention behaviors. We examined continental United States (CONUS) scale N deposition (e.g., wet and dry atmospheric deposition), vegetation trends, and stream trends as potential indicators of watershed N-saturation and retention conditions, and how watershed N retention and losses vary over space and time. By synthesizing changes and modalities in watershed nitrogen loss patterns based on stream data from 2200 U.S. watersheds over a 50 years record, our work revealed two patterns of watershed N-retention and loss. One was a hysteresis pattern that reflects the integrated influence of hydrology, atmospheric inputs, land-use, stream temperature, elevation, and vegetation. The other pattern was a one-way transition to a new state. We found that regions with increasing atmospheric deposition and increasing vegetation health/biomass patterns have the highest N-retention capacity, become increasingly N-saturated over time, and are associated with the strongest declines in stream N exports—a pattern, that is, consistent across all land cover categories. We provide a conceptual model, validated at an unprecedented scale across the CONUS that links instream nitrogen signals to upstream mechanistic landscape processes. Our work can aid in the future interpretation of in-stream concentrations of DOC and DIN as indicators of watershed N-retention status and integrators of watershed hydrobiogeochemical processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

GDSA - Modeling and Integration – ORNL: PFLOTRAN modeling

This report summarizes work done at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) related to post-closure criticality consequence analysis of dual-purpose canister (DPC) direct disposal in unsaturated alluvium. PFLOTRAN software was used to model the behavior of a breached DPC with low water infiltration rates and unsaturated conditions in alluvial deposits such that a low-power criticality event occurs with a focus on thermal hydrological constraints on criticality timing and power output. This summary describes initial exploration of those thermal hydrological processes and of the long-term average power output from a criticality event that could be sustained without driving water out of the DPC package and thereby terminating the criticality event. The objectives are (1) to identify, for different groundwater infiltration rates, the time at which the DPC fills with water sufficiently to potentially initiate criticality; (2) to bound the power output that could be produced by a criticality event that would thermally drive water out of the package at various percolation rates; and (3) provide an estimate of how the size of a package breach affects the water infiltration and therefore the possibility timing of criticality.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enabling FAIR data in Earth and environmental science with community-centric (meta)data reporting formats

Abstract Research can be more transparent and collaborative by using Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles to publish Earth and environmental science data. Reporting formats—instructions, templates, and tools for consistently formatting data within a discipline—can help make data more accessible and reusable. However, the immense diversity of data types across Earth science disciplines makes development and adoption challenging. Here, we describe 11 community reporting formats for a diverse set of Earth science (meta)data including cross-domain metadata (dataset metadata, location metadata, sample metadata), file-formatting guidelines (file-level metadata, CSV files, terrestrial model data archiving), and domain-specific reporting formats for some biological, geochemical, and hydrological data (amplicon abundance tables, leaf-level gas exchange, soil respiration, water and sediment chemistry, sensor-based hydrologic measurements). More broadly, we provide guidelines that communities can use to create new (meta)data formats that integrate with their scientific workflows. Such reporting formats have the potential to accelerate scientific discovery and predictions by making it easier for data contributors to provide (meta)data that are more interoperable and reusable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Techniques for Vegetation Removal from UAV-Based Photogrammetric DSM near WIPP Land Withdrawal Act Boundary, NM

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is located within New Mexico's karst landscape and is the United States' only deep geologic radioactive waste repository which isolates transuranic waste from defense activities underground in a bedded salt formation. Characteristic karst topography in this region is made up of material (such as limestone) that can be dissolved by water over a long period of time, and includes features such as springs, surface streams, sinking streams, caves, and sinkholes. Karst features can potentially impact the integrity of the waste repository in the future and compromise WIPP's performance, particularly when coupled with incompatible land-use activities within the Land Withdrawal Act (LWA) boundary as well as increased water withdrawals outside the LWA. In order to better capture the ground surface topography to support hydrology modeling efforts, the U.S. DOE has enlisted FIU to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In a previous field study, a high-resolution digital surface model (DSM) of an adjacent representative site, Basin 6, was developed by photogrammetry using aerial images captured with unmanned aerial vehicles. The DSM generated was based on point clouds representing the entire landscapes, including points of terrain, vegetation and infrastructure. These above-ground features need to be removed to create a DSM/DEM with good representation of the bare ground. In recent years, many techniques including both pre- and post-processing of DSMs, were developed for vegetation removal with varied success. This research focuses on applying and comparing various vegetation removal methods using point clouds generated of the Basin 6 pilot study area. The 3D RGB-based point cloud classification using Python scripts was a modification of the procedure by Themistocleous (2019). The method using Liblas classifies the point cloud three-dimensionally, whereas the method by Themistocleous (2019) is two-dimensional. The preliminary result of the method using Liblas, however, still had a large amount of vegetation remaining compared to the Pix4D Machine Learning method. The vegetation layer remains highly visible in the DEMs processed using the vegetation indices as opposed to the Pix4D Machine Learning method, which produces a DEM where mostly bare ground is seen. Further modifications to the input parameters are required to improve the vegetation vs. bare ground classification using this approach. The next step will be to improve the method using Liblas and to also test other vegetation removal methods found in the literature review to compare them against the two described here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Role of Groundwater Withdrawals on River Regulation: Example From the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) is heavily regulated by more than 250 dams on its river system while depending significantly on groundwater withdrawals in certain sub-basins. Neglecting groundwater withdrawals in hydrologic models of the basin could result in inaccurate predictions of its water budget and thus mislead water management decisions in the basin. This work aims to understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on the spatiotemporal patterns of modeling regulated streamflow in the CRB using a modified version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model integrated with a water management component that accounts for groundwater withdrawals, irrigation demands, and reservoir operation (VIC-GIRR). The VIC-GIRR simulations showed that considering additional groundwater withdrawals would alleviate the stress of irrigation water deficit in the Snake River Basin with an average reduction of 10 km 3 /year. Such a reduction in water deficit resulted in slight streamflow increase over the CRB with maximum increase up to 40% during dry period in certain locations. We also note that the implementation of groundwater withdrawal does not, however, improve the overall model performance in long-term averaged streamflow and storage predictions. Our results highlight the efforts needed to examine additional important processes in representing the interactions between water withdrawals and reservoir operations. Such efforts will aid in better simulation of multi-reservoir system and improve effectiveness for agricultural productivity, power generation, flood control, and navigation purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune Climate Forecasts

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.There are 252 mean change files represented in this dataset (12 months * 3 future time periods * 7 variables ). The mean change is calculated by taking the mean of the differences between the future projected average (e.g., 2046-2065) and the climate model baseline (e.g., 1979-1999). The differences were calculated for each downscaled GCM and then averaged across all models to obtain the mean change. This mean of the differences was calculated for each month, each future time period, and each variable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Onslow Beach Washover Fan Morphology from 2012 to 2015

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.These grid files were created from data collected using a Riegl 3-D laser scanner. Millions of x, y, and z points from the F2 Washover Fan on Onslow Beach were processed using the MARS software package to define a bare-earth model. Grid files were imported into Golden Software Surfer version 19 for editing and exported from that application as .grd files. Files can be opened in Surfer or ArcMap, but the coordinate system information will be lost if opened in ArcMap. These data were collected to quantify the morphological changes that occur on a washover fan through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2021

A HPC Theory-Guided Machine Learning Cyberinfrastructure for Communicating Hydrometeorological Data Across Scales

High-resolution predictions of hydrometeorological variables are critical for supporting hydropower generation decisions and flood control at hydroelectric power plants. Traditional climate and hydrologic models rely on the numerical simulation of detailed physical processes. Therefore, running these simulations is time-, labor-, and computation-intensive. Improving the spatial and temporal resolution in these modeling outputs could lead to cubic increases in both the simulation time and computational demands, rendering high-resolution hydrometeorological predictions expensive and impractical. Many past studies apply the super resolution (SR) technique to downscale climate models using deep learners. However, deep learners are deemed “black-boxes,” as their derivation processes from low-resolution outputs to high-resolution outputs are often hidden. Their results are difficult for domain scientists to interpret and validate. Thus, there is a need for an exploratory machine learning approach that can partially integrate domain-specific theory and knowledge into the data-driven mapping process between simulation outputs of different spatial scales. The domain-specific theory and knowledge can be incorporated into the data model through an inductive approach in which process-related environmental variables are used and analyzed as key drivers (i.e., environmental surrogates) to reflect the complex physical processes. Many of these variables, such as land use land cover, soil types, topography, digital elevation, air temperature, and various watershed characteristics, can be directly measured through sensors or remote sensing techniques. Additionally, SR applications that can downscale hydrological and hydrodynamics models to efficiently produce high-resolution (1 m) flood depth grids are still rare. Since the flood depth grid can be used to support critical decisions for flood control operation at hydroelectric power plants, it is crucial to enable an SR-based capability for interpolating high-resolution flood inundation maps.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Tide‐Driven Wetland Soil Redox and Biogeochemical Interactions Into a Land Surface Model

Abstract Redox processes, aqueous and solid‐phase chemistry, and pH dynamics are key drivers of subsurface biogeochemical cycling and methanogenesis in terrestrial and wetland ecosystems but are typically not included in terrestrial carbon cycle models. These omissions may introduce errors when simulating systems where redox interactions and pH fluctuations are important, such as wetlands where saturation of soils can produce anoxic conditions and coastal systems where sulfate inputs from seawater can influence biogeochemistry. Integrating cycling of redox‐sensitive elements could therefore allow models to better represent key elements of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas production. We describe a model framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) with PFLOTRAN biogeochemistry, allowing geochemical processes and redox interactions to be integrated with land surface model simulations. We implemented a reaction network including aerobic decomposition, fermentation, sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy as well as pH dynamics along with iron oxide and iron sulfide mineral precipitation and dissolution. We simulated biogeochemical cycling in tidal wetlands subject to either saltwater or freshwater inputs driven by tidal hydrological dynamics. In simulations with saltwater tidal inputs, sulfate reduction led to accumulation of sulfide, higher dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations, lower dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and lower methane emissions than simulations with freshwater tidal inputs. Model simulations compared well with measured porewater concentrations and surface gas emissions from coastal wetlands in the Northeastern United States. These results demonstrate how simulating geochemical reaction networks can improve land surface model simulations of subsurface biogeochemistry and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating simplifications of subsurface process representations for field-scale permafrost hydrology models

Abstract. Permafrost degradation within a warming climate poses a significant environmental threat through both the permafrost carbon feedback and damage to human communities and infrastructure. Understanding this threat relies on better understanding and numerical representation of thermo-hydrological permafrost processes and the subsequent accurate prediction of permafrost dynamics. All models include simplified assumptions, implying a tradeoff between model complexity and prediction accuracy. The main purpose of this work is to investigate this tradeoff when applying the following commonly made assumptions: (1) assuming equal density of ice and liquid water in frozen soil, (2) neglecting the effect of cryosuction in unsaturated freezing soil, and (3) neglecting advective heat transport during soil freezing and thaw. This study designed a set of 62 numerical experiments using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS v1.2) to evaluate the effects of these choices on permafrost hydrological outputs, including both integrated and pointwise quantities. Simulations were conducted under different climate conditions and soil properties from three different sites in both column- and hillslope-scale configurations. Results showed that amongst the three physical assumptions, soil cryosuction is the most crucial yet commonly ignored process. Neglecting cryosuction, on average, can cause 10 %–20 % error in predicting evaporation, 50 %–60 % error in discharge, 10 %–30 % error in thaw depth, and 10 %–30 % error in soil temperature at 1 m beneath the surface. The prediction error for subsurface temperature and water saturation is more obvious at hillslope scales due to the presence of lateral flux. By comparison, using equal ice–liquid density has a minor impact on most hydrological metrics of interest but significantly affects soil water saturation with an averaged 5 %–15 % error. Neglecting advective heat transport presents the least error, 5 % or even much lower, in most metrics of interest for a large-scale Arctic tundra system without apparent influence caused by localized groundwater flow, and it can decrease the simulation time at hillslope scales by 40 %–80 %. By challenging these commonly made assumptions, this work provides permafrost hydrology scientists an important context for understanding the underlying physical processes, including allowing modelers to better choose the appropriate process representation for a given modeling experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Baltimore MD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Heterogeneity in Permeability and Particulate Organic Carbon Content Controls the Redox Condition of Riverbed Sediments at Different Timescales

Abstract The hydrological and biogeochemical properties of the hyporheic zone in stream and riverine ecosystems have been extensively studied over the past two decades. Although it is widely acknowledged that sediment heterogeneity can influence biogeochemical reactions, little effort has been made to understand the role of heterogeneity on the spatiotemporal variability of riverbed redox conditions under changing flow dynamics at different timescales. Here we integrate a mechanistic model and field data to demonstrate that heterogeneity in permeability plays a vital role in modulating sediment redox conditions at both seasonal (annual) and event (daily‐to‐weekly) timescales, whereas heterogeneity in particulate organic carbon (POC) content only has a comparable influence on redox conditions at the seasonal timescale. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing sediment heterogeneity, in terms of permeability and POC content, in quantifying biogeochemical dynamics in the riverbed and hyporheic zones of riverine ecosystems.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Science Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but rather modeling complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple sources of data and domains. For instance, Evapotranspiration (ET) and Leaf Area Indexes (LAI) are two critical components in DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, current ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFT), which fail to capture the fine-scale variations due to change in vegetation type across the globe. Within this context and in light of the data-model integration challenges highlighted in the EESSD Strategic Plan, the new era of AI model development for geosciences calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with estimations of parameters such as PFT and LAI in an efficient, interpretable, and easy-to-operate manner.

Ambrozio Dias, Philipe↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases

Abstract Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗