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At least 217 records · Page 12

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Different Formation Scenarios for Counterrotating Stellar Disks in Nearby Galaxies

Using the integral field unit data from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey, we select a sample of 101 galaxies with counterrotating stellar disks and regularly rotating ionized gas disks. We classify the 101 galaxies into four types based on the features of their stellar velocity fields. The relative fractions and stellar population age radial gradients of the four types are different in the blue cloud, green valley, and red sequence populations. We suggest different formation scenarios for counterrotating stellar disks; the key factors in the formation of counterrotating stellar disks include (1) the abundance of preexisting gas in the progenitor and (2) the efficiency in angular momentum consumption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations: GCAM-Demeter-SELECT Annualized Land Use and Land Cover, Wood Harvest and Fertilization Data with Dynamic Urbanization Harmonized to CLM Land Definitions at 0.125 Degrees

Annualized land use land cover data, including wood harvest and fertilizer use data from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) downscaled to 0.125 degrees for couping with the Community Land Model (CLM). GCAM here refers to GCAM-USA v5.3.im3 which has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics. Data is also harmonized with future urbanization projections from the Spatially-Explicit, Long-term, Empirical City developmenT (SELECT) model. Projections/Data are generated using the demeter land use and land cover downscaling model. Original projections were generated at 0.05 degrees before being aggregared to 0.125 degrees. Projections are available for 8 alternative scenarios. Two versions of final data are included- one with managed forests or harvested forest area per pixel broken out and one with the same aggregated into total forests. Following folders are included: demeter_78_PFT_output:This is the final output of dynamic land use land cover change for 78 PFTs as required by CLM raw_outputs_incl_managed_forest: This is the final output but with managed forests broken out as a different PFT. Essentially a 79th PFT is added. wood_harvest_outputs: Wood harvest output per pixel in gC/m2 fertilization_outputs: Fertilizer use per pixel in gN/m2 Each NetCDF file in each folder represents a projection for a separate year, scenario. Land use outputs are organized as PFT level data saved as subdata. Link to GCAM version used- https://data.msdlive.org/records/yb23g-44274 Link to SELECT documentation -https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815219301707 Link to CLM documentation- - https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm In case of questions contact- kanishka.narayan@pnnl.gov

GCAM-USA↗

Sizing and Location Selection of Medium‐Voltage Back‐to‐Back Converters for DER‐Dominated Distribution Systems

Medium‐voltage back‐to‐back (MVB2B) converters can connect two distribution systems and quantifiably transfer power between them. This function can enable the MVB2B converter to exchange distributed energy resource (DER)‐generated power between two systems and bring significant value to enhancing distribution system DER adoption. Our previous work analysed and demonstrated the value MVB2B converter can bring to DER integration. As continuous work, this paper presents a methodology that helps address the MVB2B converter sizing and location selection problem in distribution systems with high DER penetrations. The proposed methodology aims to address three critical problems for MVB2B converter implementation in the real world: (1) which distribution systems are better to be connected, (2) what converter size is appropriate for connecting the distribution systems, and (3) where the optimal connection points are in the systems for connecting the MVB2B converter. The proposed methodology has been demonstrated by case studies that include various scenarios involving distribution systems with different dominated load types and high photovoltaic penetrations. The results demonstrate that selecting the optimal converter size based on net revenue and time of return considerations leads to a balance between maximizing energy savings and minimizing financial payback periods. Furthermore, feeder pair selection based on load profile standard deviation effectively identifies systems that derive the greatest value from MVB2B integration. Finally, an optimized connection point selection approach using a voltage load sensitivity matrix ensures minimal system impact while facilitating efficient power exchange. These findings provide practical insights for the real‐world deployment of MVB2B converters to enhance DER hosting capacity and improve grid resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal economic dispatch policy for prosumer with energy storage considering self-consumption demand

This paper analyzed the effects of self-consumption demand on the joint economic dispatch of prosumers (energy consumers who are also producers), particularly for prosumers with both energy storage and distributed energy sources (DERs). Studies in the existing literature on the economic dispatch scheduling policy of energy storage, mostly from the perspective of electricity merchants, do not address the impacts of self-consumption demand. However, due to the intermittent and high levels of uncertainty regarding DERs generation and the dynamic demand of the prosumer, production and consumption are not always simultaneous; there are two possible scenarios in each period depending on whether DERs generation can meet prosumers' self-consumption or not. Incorporating the self-consumption demand will pose modeling challenges since these two scenarios cannot occur simultaneously in each period, and different scenarios require different decisions for prosumers. Further, this paper analyzed the two scenarios separately to find the optimal storage scheduling strategy, and the results were combined to get the optimal global solution. We focused on prosumers' economic decision-making while considering self-consumption demand and the physical constraints of a battery based on dynamic programming. Our study showed that the feasible state of charge (SOC) range of storage can be segmented into several sub-ranges by SOC reference points under the above two scenarios. As a result, a prosumer's optimal scheduling can be uniquely and conveniently selected based on the sub-ranges within which the current SOC falls. The results, therefore, provided multistage decision-making guidance for prosumers with energy storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Structure of amorphous materials in the NASICON system Na 1+x Ti 2 Si x P 3−x O 12

Abstract The structure of glasses in the sodium (Na) super-ionic conductor (NASICON) system Na 1 + x Ti 2 Si x P 3 − x O 12 with x = 0.8 and x = 1.0 was explored by combining neutron and high-energy x-ray diffraction with 29 Si, 31 P and 23 Na solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. The 29 Si magic angle spinning (MAS) NMR spectra reveal that the silica component remains fully polymerized in the form of Si 4 units, i.e. the silicon atoms are bound to four bridging oxygen atoms. The 31 P{ 23 Na} rotational echo adiabatic passage double resonance (REAPDOR) NMR data suggest that the 31 P MAS NMR line shape originates from four-coordinated P n units, where n = 1, 2 or 3 is the number of bridging oxygen atoms per phosphorus atom. These sites differ in their 31 P- 23 Na dipolar coupling strengths. The results support an intermediate range order scenario of a phosphosilicate mixed network-former glass in which the phosphate groups selectively attract the Na + modifier ions. Titanium takes a sub-octahedral coordination environment with a mean Ti–O coordination number of 5.17(4) for x = 0.8 and 4.86(4) for x = 1.0. A mismatch between the P–O and Si–O bond lengths of 8% is likely to inhibit the incorporation of silicon into the phosphorus sites of the NASICON crystal structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Pursuing sources of heterogeneity in modeling clustered population

Abstract Researchers often have to deal with heterogeneous population with mixed regression relationships, increasingly so in the era of data explosion. In such problems, when there are many candidate predictors, it is not only of interest to identify the predictors that are associated with the outcome, but also to distinguish the true sources of heterogeneity , that is, to identify the predictors that have different effects among the clusters and thus are the true contributors to the formation of the clusters. We clarify the concepts of the source of heterogeneity that account for potential scale differences of the clusters and propose a regularized finite mixture effects regression to achieve heterogeneity pursuit and feature selection simultaneously. We develop an efficient algorithm and show that our approach can achieve both estimation and selection consistency. Simulation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of our method under various practical scenarios. Three applications are presented, namely, an imaging genetics study for linking genetic factors and brain neuroimaging traits in Alzheimer's disease, a public health study for exploring the association between suicide risk among adolescents and their school district characteristics, and a sport analytics study for understanding how the salary levels of baseball players are associated with their performance and contractual status.

Li, Yan↗

A Comprehensive Review of Working Fluids for High-Temperature Heat Pumps: History, Selection, and Evaluation

High-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) are essential for enhancing energy efficiency across various industrial applications, especially in terms of integrating with renewable energy sources and recovering waste heat. This article thoroughly investigates suitable working fluids for HTHPs, highlighting the evolution from traditional refrigerants to contemporary alternatives with low global warming potential (GWP). It proposes comprehensive selection criteria for these working fluids, pre-selects low-GWP working fluids, and outlines a screening methodology. The pre-selected low-GWP working fluids are evaluated for applications in three typical industrial scenarios involving HTHPs. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that regulatory compliance and environmental impacts significantly influence the development of next-generation refrigerants. The choice of working fluids is closely linked to the types of vapor compression cycles, tailored to the specific industrial applications for HTHPs. This study emphasizes areas for future research, including the development of innovative working fluids; integrated strategies that account for performance, safety, and regulatory standards; alignment of HTHP components; exploration of natural working fluids; and broadening the applications of existing working fluids.

Compression↗

Soot Predictions with a Laminar Flamelet Combustion Model in SIERRA/Fuego on a Coflow Scenario

This report describes an assessment of flamelet based soot models in a laminar ethylene coflow flame with a good selection of measurements suitable for model validation. Overall flow field and temperature predictions were in good agreement with available measurements. Soot profiles were in good agreement within the flame except for near the centerline where imperfections with the acetylene-based soot-production model are expected to be greatest. The model was challenged to predict the transition between non-sooting and sooting conditions with non-negligible soot emissions predicted even down to small flow rates or flame sizes. This suggests some possible deficiency in the soot oxidation models that might alter the amount of smoke emissions from flames, though this study cannot quantify the magnitude of the effect for large fires.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures: Guidance Designed for Federal Agencies (hereafter referred to as “this report”) provides a technical framework for federal agencies to conduct a life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for water efficiency projects in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 8253. This report leverages insights from the 2023 report, PNNL-34006, Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition (Unger et al. 2023). The primary objective of this report is to provide a framework to assist federal agencies with evaluating the full economic impact of water efficiency projects by assessing both initial investments and long-term operational benefits. An LCCA can provide a comprehensive view of all costs associated with a water efficiency project, including initial investment, ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M), and eventual disposal or replacement, ensuring the most cost-effective solution is selected. The LCCA methodology outlined in this report enables users to compare base case scenarios with potential alternatives using a standardized present value approach. It incorporates key cost components such as energy, water and wastewater, installation, O&M, and equipment replacement. Additionally, the framework introduces relevant evaluation metrics, such as the net savings and the savings-to-investment ratio, to ensure that water efficiency measures are economically justified over the lifespan of the project. To support practical application, this report also describes various water efficiency strategies that may be analyzed using an LCCA, including plumbing retrofits, irrigation upgrades, alternative water use, and cooling system improvements. By applying this framework, federal agencies can ensure compliance with regulatory mandates while maximizing the return on investment and contributing to resilient water management practices. The information provided in this report is aligned with the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) life-cycle cost (LCC) methodology, as conveyed in National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Handbook 135 (Kneifel and Webb 2022). This report is intended to provide relatively high-level guidance, acting as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, that resource.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of modeled time horizon on quantifying the need for long-duration storage

Long-Duration Energy Storage (LDES) has gained interest due to its key role in attaining a decarbonized, low-cost, and stable grid driven by variable renewable electricity (VRE). Currently, there is a wide range of LDES technologies being developed to provide electricity with 8+ hours of consecutive discharge. However, current capacity expansion models used in long-term planning processes rarely consider low cost LDES as a candidate technology. If they do, the storage balancing horizon (SBH) of the model usually only considers non-consecutive 1-day periods that do not capture the potential of LDES to shift energy across multiple days or even seasons. Addressing these limitations in existing models, this work explores the ways in which the optimal energy storage changes when increasing the number of consecutive days in the SBH and how these changes will impact planners who are determining the future roles of energy storage. Our analysis uses SWITCH, an open-source capacity expansion model with a high spatial resolution for the entire Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) in a zero-carbon scenario in 2050. We find that the number of consecutive days in the SBH changes both the total selected power and energy capacity of LDES when storage energy and power capacity overnight costs are $\$$13 USD/kWh (or less) and $113 USD/kW, respectively. We also find that the amount of required energy in storage to drive a future VRE-driven WECC grid ranges from 2.5 TWh to 16.0 TWh depending on the length of the SBH. The optimal storage duration (energy to power ratio) we obtain ranges from 10 h to 620 h among all the scenarios. Furthermore, depending on the storage cost assumption, we observe different charge/discharge patterns when varying the length of the SBH. Given our results, we anticipate that as more LDES technologies become commercially available, it will be critical to increase the length of the SBH to fully capture the benefits of LDES assets in long-term planning processes of high VRE-driven grids.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Analysis and Overview of Hybrid Wired and Wireless Bi-Directional EV Charger Systems

Here, this paper analyzes and overviews hybrid wired and wireless bi-directional Electric Vehicle (EV) charging systems with a primary focus on resonant compensation methods that enable a unified power conversion architecture. Four compensation configurations based on series–series and LCC–LCC resonant networks are systematically evaluated for both wired transformer-based and wireless coupler-based operation. The analysis examines how coupling conditions, resonant component selection, and auxiliary compensation tuning influence voltage gain characteristics, resonant tank current magnitude and phase, and operating frequency requirements. Normalized frequency-domain results are presented to directly compare reactive current behavior and voltage regulation capability under wired and wireless operating conditions. A 60 kW bi-directional charger case study is used to demonstrate the feasibility of retaining a common hardware platform while accommodating distinct coupling scenarios through compensation tuning rather than structural modification. The presented results provide design-oriented insights into resonant network selection and compensation strategies for scalable and flexible hybrid EV charging systems.

Hybrid↗

Computational Thermal Hydraulics of a High-Performance Low-Enriched-Uranium Annular Target for HFIR Irradiation

Molybdenum-99 has historically been generated via isolation from fissioned highly enriched uranium (HEU) targets. Here, this isotope is in high demand due to its daily use across the world in radiopharmaceutical medical procedures. The primary objective of this work was to design and analyze an experimental target assembly containing one low-enriched-uranium (LEU) annular target for irradiation at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). Efforts included incorporating spatially dependent energy sources from neutron and gamma interactions, quantifying thermal contact conductance at material interfaces, performing grid-independent studies, comparing turbulence models, and simulating various steady-state and transient scenarios relevant for irradiation qualification and eventual insertion. These models provide velocity, pressure, and temperature distributions in both space and time. Such results enable the selection of an appropriate irradiation location, fission rate density, and flow-limiting orifice size and demonstrate compliance with HFIR safety requirements such that insertion into the reactor can be approved. This analysis shows that across all scenarios, wetted surface temperatures remain below the coolant saturation temperature with no net vapor formation in the coolant. In every scenario, all components stay below 30% of the aluminum 6061 melting temperature. Computational fluid dynamics and system-level models predict peak target temperatures that agree within 4%, though the predicted axial location of the peak differs by about 10% of the heated length due to differences in flow development length. These results de-risk the irradiation of LEU (annular targets) and strengthen a domestic, HEU-independent 99 Mo supply by providing important fuel performance data to form the foundation for a robust licensing basis.

Molybdenum-99↗

Total cost of ownership of vehicle electrification and fuel switching options for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles

Projecting the transition from combustion engines to battery-based powertrains is complex becuase it involves numerous interdependent decisions. This study estimates total cost of ownership (TCO) to assess the economic viability of powertrain electrification, focusing exclusively on advances in vehicle and fuel technologies. Under two bounding technology-progress scenarios, we develop vehicle designs and fuel cost trajectories, which serve as inputs to TCO projections for selected classes from 2021 to 2050. We analyzed a small sport utility vehicle (SUV) to represent the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, and four medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) classes: Class 6 box delivery, Class 8 drayage, Class 8 long-haul, and Class 8 transit bus. For each class, we compared the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) against conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The results show that modern ICEVs generally have lower TCO; however, BEVs and FCHEVs could match or have lower TCOs than ICEVs over time, depending on technological progress. In LDVs, BEV300 is projected to deliver the lowest TCO by 2050, particularly under the high-progress scenario. In MHDVs, both BEVs and FCHEVs could become more cost-competitive than ICEVs by 2050 in the high-progress case. Beyond these results, the findings suggest further investigation is warranted for BEV charging infrastructure, FCHEV hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and MHDV charging strategies. In conclusion, these factors could reduce the fuel-cost share of TCO and enhance the competitiveness of BEVs and FCHEVs relative to ICEVs.

Battery electric vehicle↗

Effects of grain size and porosity on cladding failure in high-burnup UO 2 : A sensitivity and uncertainty study

Isotopic taggants are being studied to aid in the provenance assessment of nuclear materials. However, these taggants must be selected such that they do not adversely affect fuel performance during normal operation or accident scenarios. Taggants are known to affect the fuel’s grain size and porosity. In the work described in this paper, the BISON fuel performance code was used to assess the potential effects of taggants (i.e., grain size and porosity) on fuel rod behavior and cladding failure during a high-burnup, large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Here, 281 individual fuel rods from the same reactor core were modeled for a sensitivity study, a parametric study, and uncertainty quantification. The cladding failure predictions often exhibited stochastic behavior. After additional study, it was found that the cladding failure model is highly sensitive to residual error inherent to numerical approximation solvers. Some strategies to mitigate this sensitivity are discussed. The study found no relationship between known taggant effects and cladding failure status. However, taggants were found to affect the time and location of failure in certain rods. In conclusion, future work to continue investigating and validating these findings is briefly discussed.

Doped UO 2↗

Rapid Oxidation of Uranium Steel Alloys: Combustion Synthesis

This project explored the use of combustion synthesis as a rapid, high-temperature method for oxidizing uranium-bearing steel alloys. Traditional laboratory-scale synthesis methods often fail to replicate the thermal and kinetic conditions experienced by real-world particulates, particularly those formed under rapid quenching or high-temperature scenarios. Combustion synthesis offers a promising alternative by enabling fast, localized heating and flexible precursor selection. A series of targeted experiments were conducted using a U 2 NiCrFe 4 alloy as the precursor. The alloy was oxidized using combustion synthesis reactions fueled by uranyl nitrate and glycine, achieving peak temperatures exceeding 1,200 °C. Postreaction analysis using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), elemental mapping, and Raman spectroscopy revealed the formation of iron-based oxides, with limited but detectable evidence of uranium oxide phases such as UO 2 . The results indicate that under the rapid reaction and cooling conditions of combustion synthesis, iron oxides form preferentially, but uranium oxide formation is kinetically limited. These findings validate combustion synthesis as a viable method for simulating the oxidation behavior of uranium steels in extreme environments and lay the groundwork for future studies aimed at enhancing uranium oxide formation through higher temperatures or modified precursor compositions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗