Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “extreme value”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

Typical and extreme weather datasets for studying the resilience of buildings to climate change and heatwaves

We present unprecedented datasets of current and future projected weather files for building simulations in 15 major cities distributed across 10 climate zones worldwide. The datasets include ambient air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, direct and diffuse solar irradiance, and wind speed at hourly resolution, which are essential climate elements needed to undertake building simulations. The datasets contain typical and extreme weather years in the EnergyPlus weather file (EPW) format and multiyear projections in comma-separated value (CSV) format for three periods: historical (2001–2020), future mid-term (2041–2060), and future long-term (2081–2100). The datasets were generated from projections of one regional climate model, which were bias-corrected using multiyear observational data for each city. The methodology used makes the datasets among the first to incorporate complex changes in the future climate for the frequency, duration, and magnitude of extreme temperatures. These datasets, created within the IEA EBC Annex 80 “Resilient Cooling for Buildings”, are ready to be used for different types of building adaptation and resilience studies to climate change and heatwaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Nonradiative Properties of Self–Trapped Holes in Ultra–Wide Bandgap Gallium Oxide Film

The photoluminescence (PL) of self-trapped holes (STH) in ultra-wide bandgap β-Ga 2 O 3 is commonly its most dominant light emission and is an inherent property. Thus, gaining knowledge of the crystal dynamics that impact the PL properties is vital to sensor and other technologies. The PL, Raman-phonons, and their interactions are studied at an extreme temperature range of 77–622 K. The PL is studied up to the bandgap value of ≈5 eV. It is found that the high-energy Raman modes provide a major route to the nonradiative process of the PL via STH–phonon interaction with an activation energy of 72 meV. This dynamic is modeled with the configurational coordinate scheme at the strong phonon coupling limit. The exceptionally broad Gaussian PL linewidth manifests this coupling. The weak temperature response of the PL energy peak position indicates that the STH has characteristics of a deep-level defect. This contrasts with the large redshift of ≈220 meV of the optical gap of the film, ascertained from transmission. Unlike the temperature response of the high-energy phonons, the behavior of the low-energy phonons is found to follow the Bose–Einstein population increase, indicating no strong interaction with the STH.

Raman↗

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically, along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring Fabrication of Ultra-low Absorption, Multilayer, Hafnium High Reflectors

Ultra-low absorption, high damage threshold coatings are critical for the advancement of the high power CW laser technologies, and in most cases, are a limiting factor for the output power. Since high power CW laser systems enable extremely high power irradiances, when the light is incident on an HR mirror, part of the energy is absorbed and converted into heat, which can have many detrimental side effects. The worst-case scenarios are optical distortion and laser-induced damage. These optics must operate reliably with irradiances of 100's kW/cm 2 to MW/cm 2 . The highest pulsed laser damage threshold high reflectors are consistently fabricated with hafnia material. However, hafnia is not the material of choice for high power CW laser systems because of very high absorption and scatter properties, factors of >100x higher than tantala-silica, due to its poly crystalline nature. This study focuses on CW laser use applications, where the coatings’ laser damage resistance is largely limited by the inherent absorption of the coating materials. The goal is to study the feasibility of utilizing a “composite” hafnium-silica and a “doped” hafnia-silica target materials to prohibit crystallization. The results from the study were extremely successful. Hafnia high reflectors coatings generated from this study exhibited one micron absorption values of approximately 1 ppm, which are the lowest reported values to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Initial Delayed Critical Configuration of SHEBA I and Subcritical Measurements by Californium Source-Driven Noise Analysis

In September 1980, the initial delayed critical configuration of the Solution High-Energy Burst Assembly (SHEBA I) was assembled, and the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) staff performed near critical and subcritical measurements using the californium source-driven noise analysis (CSDNA) method at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Critical Experiments Facility. An unreflected 56 cm outside diameter stainless-steel cylindrical tank was partially filled with uranyl fluoride solution (235U enrichment was 4.95 wt %) until delayed criticality was achieved. Then, measurements were performed for various fuel solution heights from delayed critical to 60% of the height required for delayed criticality. The stainless-steel tank had an inside diameter of 54.6 cm and a height of 105 cm and was partially (20–36.5 cm) filled with an aqueous solution of uranyl fluoride (with a density of 2.162 g/cm 3 ). The density of the uranium in solution was 1.042 g/cm 3 , and the solution had a H/U atomic ratio of 20.43. The tank had a 6.35 mm wall thickness and an axial reentrant tube with an inside diameter of 6.02 cm and wall thickness of 0.165 cm. The tank was essentially unreflected on the top and sides because it was in a thin metal shed. The reactivity of the near–delayed critical configuration was −10.4 cents, which corresponds to a k eff value of 0.99922. In addition to the CSDNA measurements, the prompt neutron decay constants were determined from break frequency noise analysis (BNFA) measurements. The subcritical neutron multiplication factors from CSDNA and BFNA compared extremely well. These data can be used as the basis of International Nuclear Criticality Safety Evaluation benchmark for the near-critical configuration, and the k eff values at various subcritical configurations can be used as subcritical benchmarks. Furthermore, the measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as reactor physics benchmarks. This report documents the experimental information for the measurements performed so that, at a later date, researchers could perform the required uncertainty and calculational analyses and documentation to use these data for an International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) or Nuclear Energy Agency benchmarks. The measured prompt neutron decay constants can be used as the basis of a benchmark for the International Reactor Physics Evaluation Program (IRPhEP). The data from these measurements are available from the ORNL Records Management Services Department, and the logbook is available from ICSBEP at Idaho National Laboratory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Polymer Canvas with the Stiffness of the Bone Matrix to Study and Control Mesenchymal Stem Cell Response

Reproducing in vitro the complex multiscale physical features of human tissues creates novel biomedical opportunities and fundamental understanding of cell–environment interfaces and interactions. While stiffness has been recognized as a key driver of cell behavior, systematic studies on the role of stiffness have been limited to values in the KPa–MPa range, significantly below the stiffness of bone. Here, in this work, a platform enabling the tuning of the stiffness of a biocompatible polymeric interface up to values characteristic of human bone is reported, which are in the GPa range, by using extremely thin polymer films on glass and cross-linking the films using ultraviolet (UV) light irradiation. It is shown that a higher stiffness is related to better adhesion, proliferation, and osteogenic differentiation, and that it is possible to switch on/off cell attachment and growth by solely tuning the stiffness of the interface, without any surface chemistry or topography modification. Since the stiffness is tuned directly by UV irradiation, this platform is ideal for rapid and simple fabrication of stiffness patterns and gradients, thus representing an innovative tool for combinatorial studies of the synergistic effect of tissue environmental cues on cell behavior, and creates new opportunities for next-generation biosensors, single-cell patterning, and lab-on-a-chip devices.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining Clustered MCSs and Their Precipitation Significance Over Global Land MCS Hotspots

Multiple independent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can occur closely in space and time, subjecting common geographic regions to multiple precipitation events over short periods. Motivated by an earlier study highlighting significant hydrological impacts of clustered MCSs in the US, we extend the analysis to seven global continental MCS hotspots using a 20‐year global MCS data set. Our findings reveal that (a) 40%–80% of MCSs occur in clusters, depending on the region; (b) clustered MCSs exhibit larger rainfall areas and higher mean areal rainfall, with the highest values observed in Argentina and India; and (c) clustered MCSs contribute increasing fractions to more extreme 24‐ and 72‐hr precipitation events across all regions. Our results underscore the critical role of clustered MCSs in driving hydrological extremes over global land regions and highlight the need to better understand how their formation mechanisms differ from non‐clustered events across the globe.

Hu, Huancui [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Hierarchy of multipartite correlations based on concentratable entanglement

Multipartite entanglement is one of the hallmarks of quantum mechanics and is central to quantum information processing. In this work we show that concentratable entanglement (CE), an operationally motivated entanglement measure, induces a hierarchy upon pure states from which different entanglement structures can be experimentally certified. In particular, we find that nearly all genuine multipartite entangled states can be verified through the CE. Interestingly, GHZ states prove to be far from maximally entangled according to this measure. Instead we find the exact maximal value and corresponding states for up to 18 qubits and show that these correspond to extremal quantum error correcting codes. The latter allows us to unravel a deep connection between CE and coding theory. Finally, our results also offer an alternative proof, on up to 31 qubits, that absolutely maximally entangled states do not exist. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Schatzki, Louis (ORCID:0000000217129148)↗

Using Artificial Microstructures to Understand Microstructure Property Relationship-Toughening Mechanisms in Metallic Glass (Final Report)

Metallic glasses are a new class of structural materials which exhibit exciting mechanical properties including high strength and elasticity. In terms of fracture toughness, the material class of metallic glasses spans a wide range; Some metallic glasses are extremely brittle and exhibit near ideal brittle behavior whereas others can be exceptional tough with values comparable to the toughest metals out there. Such large range of observed fracture toughness within the material class of metallic glasses is surprising as they have seemingly a very similar atomic structure. Therefore, we developed “artificial microstructures” which allows to decouple the various contribution of sample geometry, imperfection and structure. Specifically, we decouple variations in the alloys’ chemical composition and the atomic structure and quantified the resulting fracture toughness. Atomic structure of a metallic glass can be modified by the fictive temperature. The fictive temperature of a glass is the temperature at which the liquid metallic glass falls out of equilibrium upon colling and forms a glass. Upon further cooling the structure is maintained only thermal oscillations decrease due to a lower absolute temperature. We found that the effect of fictive temperature (same chemistry, different structural stages of the glass) is comparable to the variations of fracture toughness when the chemistry is varied. Hence, it appears that the subtle differences in the glass structure are responsible for the large range of fracture toughness’s observed. Our results reveal that fracture toughness within the material class of metallic glasses varies significantly and we found some example alloys with exceptional high resistance to fracture and others that are almost ideally brittle. Significant influences on the fracture toughness have the structure of the glass, its chemistry, and some imperfections in the structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Extremely Metal-poor Galaxies in DESI DR1: Connections to Galaxies in the Early Universe

Extremely metal-poor galaxies (XMPGs), defined as having metallicities below 10% of the solar value, are considered possible local analogs to primordial systems and offer a unique window into early galaxy evolution. This study presents a large-scale search for XMPGs using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1, systematically evaluating their resemblance to high-redshift galaxies. From a parent sample of more than 14 million galaxies, we identify 662 (556 new) confirmed XMPGs and 763 (666 new) high-quality candidates via the direct T$_{e}$ method. Our results reveal that XMPGs follow a distinct star-forming main sequence (SFMS) that is elevated and shallower than that of the comparing star-forming galaxies. Notably, at higher stellar masses (M$_{⋆}$ > 10$^{7.5}$M$_{⊙}$), the XMPG SFMS converges with the sequence observed in high-redshift galaxies by the James Webb Space Telescope, indicating that mature XMPGs sustain star formation rates comparable to their primordial counterparts. Furthermore, XMPGs consistently deviate below the local fundamental metallicity relation, mirroring high-redshift galaxy behavior. These findings demonstrate that XMPGs not only exhibit low metallicities but also preserve scaling relations characteristic of the early Universe, confirming their potential value as local laboratories for studying early galaxy formation processes.

Sui, Jipeng [Beijing Observ.; Beijing, GUCAS] (ORC↗

The CO Emission in the Taffy Galaxies (UGC 12914/15) at 60 pc Resolution. I. The Battle for Star Formation in the Turbulent Taffy Bridge

We present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array observations at a spatial resolution of $0^{"}_{.}2$ (60 pc) of CO emission from the Taffy galaxies (UGC 12914/5). The observations are compared with narrowband Paα, mid-IR, radio continuum and X-ray imaging, plus optical spectroscopy. The galaxies have undergone a recent head-on collision, creating a massive gaseous bridge that is known to be highly turbulent. The bridge contains a complex web of narrow molecular filaments and clumps. The majority of the filaments are devoid of star formation, and fall significantly below the Kennicutt–Schmidt relationship for normal galaxies, especially for the numerous regions undetected in Paα emission. Within the loosely connected filaments and clumps of gas we find regions of high velocity dispersion that appear gravitationally unbound for a wide range of likely values of X CO . Like the "Firecracker" region in the Antennae system, they would require extremely high external dynamical or thermal pressure to stop them dissipating rapidly on short crossing timescales of 2–5 Myr. We suggest that the clouds may be transient structures within a highly turbulent multiphase medium that is strongly suppressing star formation. Despite the overall turbulence in the system, stars seem to have formed in compact hotspots within a kiloparsec-sized extragalactic H ii region, where the molecular gas has a lower velocity dispersion than elsewhere, and shows evidence for a collision with an ionized gas cloud. Like the shocked gas in the Stephan's Quintet group, the conditions in the Taffy bridge shows how difficult it is to form stars within a turbulent, multiphase, gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of precipitation across the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico in multi-decadal convection-permitting simulations

Abstract This study is an early effort to generate a multi-decadal convection-permitting regional climate dataset that covers nearly the entire North American continent. We assessed a 20 year dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation at a 4 km spatial resolution with explicit convection across the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we evaluated the model’s performance in representing mean, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation across regions. Our findings indicate that when compared with ERA5 reanalysis, the forcing data, convection-permitting simulation improves representations of seasonal, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation over a large portion of the CONUS, Alaska, and Puerto Rico, particularly in areas where precipitation is heaviest. The simulation adds value over its forcing data (ERA5) in up to 53% of all grid cells in the CONUS, 68.8% in Alaska, and 84.0% in Puerto Rico. It is important to note that, however, despite improvements, model errors in Puerto Rico remain large. Similar improvements are observed in extreme indices, including consecutive dry days, maximum 5 days precipitation, and extreme precipitation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of mean hourly precipitation suggests that representations of convective processes—including onset, dissipation, suppression, downstream propagation, and local circulation—improved overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Defining a compact dry cooler design to reduce LCOE contribution in a CSP facility

Concentrating solar power (CSP), when coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle and sensible heat storage, presents a renewable and clean alternative for utility-scale power generation. However, in order to be competitive in the current and future markets, CSP facilities must limit their levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by minimizing capital costs and reducing operating costs over the lifetime of the plant. Targeting this goal, this study investigates the LCOE impact of the power cycle pre-cooler. This study considers a compact dry cooler with micro-channel technology on the CO 2 side and formed fin geometry on the air side, using directly-coupled centrifugal fans and a transition duct to improve air distribution across the fins as well as protect the fins from contaminants which may cause blockage, soiling, fouling, and damage. In an effort to better understand the dry cooler impact on LCOE, a sensitivity study was conducted using various combinations of end-to-end approach temperatures, air-side pressure drop values, CO 2 -side pressure drop values, fan types, cooler turndown control schemes, cooler module sizes, and design-point ambient temperatures. Furthemore, off-design cycle performance data was calculated for each dry cooler design using NPSS simulation software; cycle performance data were then input to System Advisor Model (SAM) along with the associated capital costs for LCOE prediction of a 100 MW system over a 30 year plant lifetime. Results of this study show the LCOE is most sensitive to air-side performance, followed by heat transfer effectiveness and capital cost. It was found that a power cycle with a mid- to high-performance dry cooler will produce the most competitive power-production costs. Designing at the extreme ends for approach temperature (or effectiveness), design-point ambient temperature, and compactness (footprint) produce higher LCOE values; mid-range values for these parameters balance performance, operating costs, and associated capital cost to optimize LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High purity 47 Sc production using high-energy photons and natural vanadium targets

We report Scandium-47 ( 47 Sc) is of high value for targeted radiotherapy and theranostics; we report a novel, cost-effective approach to produce extremely high-purity 47 Sc via photonuclear irradiation of natural vanadium. Irradiations at bremsstrahlung end-point energies below 26 and at 38 MeV produce > 99.99% and 98.8 ± 3.1% pure 47 Sc (respectively). Linear scaling of experimental data suggests producing 100+ mCi quantities of 47 Sc may be feasible via this approach. Future research into refinement and scale-up to support pre-clinical and clinical research with this production pathway is recommended.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Numerical Simulations of the Geospace Response to the Arrival of an Idealized Perfect Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection

Abstract Previously, Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ) created estimates for a “perfect” interplanetary coronal mass ejection and performed simple calculations for the response of geospace, including . In this study, these estimates are used to drive a coupled magnetohydrodynamic‐ring current‐ionosphere model of geospace to obtain more physically accurate estimates of the geospace response to such an event. The sudden impulse phase is examined and compared to the estimations of Tsurutani and Lakhina (2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058825 ). The physics‐based simulation yields similar estimates for Dst rise, magnetopause compression, and equatorial values as the previous study. However, results diverge away from the equator. values in excess of 30 nT/s are found as low as magnetic latitude. Under southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions, magnetopause erosion combines with strong region one Birkeland currents to intensify the response. Values obtained here surpass those found in historically recorded events and set the upper threshold of extreme geomagnetically induced current activity at Earth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗