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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Parametric Cost Models for Space Telescopes

Multivariable parametric cost models for space telescopes provide several benefits to designers and space system project managers. They identify major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades. They enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment. And, they provide a basis for estimating total project cost. A survey of historical models found that there is no definitive space telescope cost model. In fact, published models vary greatly [1]. Thus, there is a need for parametric space telescopes cost models. An effort is underway to develop single variable [2] and multi-variable [3] parametric space telescope cost models based on the latest available data and applying rigorous analytical techniques. Specific cost estimating relationships (CERs) have been developed which show that aperture diameter is the primary cost driver for large space telescopes; technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and increasing mass reduces cost.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
NASA NTRS2009

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn, provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

dynamic fault trees↗
NASA NTRS1978

Low energy stage study. Volume 4: Cost benefits analysis and recommendations

The costs and benefits of existing/planned systems, new propulsion concepts, and adaptations of existing/planned systems (as supported by Orbiter interface requirements and operations requirements) were quantified. Scenarios of these propulsion approaches were established which accommodate the low energy regime as defined by the new low energy payload mission model. These scenarios were screened on a cost and then a benefits basis. A propulsion approach comprising existing/planned systems and a new propulsion concept were selected as the most cost effective approach to accommodate the model payloads and the low energy regime they represent. Key cost drivers and sensitivity trends were identified. All costs were derived in 1977 dollars.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1982

Manned geosynchronous mission requirements and systems analysis study add-on

An MOTV mission model was constructed in order to establish the baseline condition for SOC basing. A mission model to reflect satellite servicing was extended. Yearly traffic was projected. Driver missions were categorized. Cost trades and sensitivity to traffic rates were performed and service equipment needs were identified.

Sherman, S. W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Are Fibre Channel SANs a Commodity?

The goal of this work is to evaluate the feasibility of putting together a Fibre Channel Storage Area Network with heterogeneous hardware running both open-source and commercial operating systems. Adherence to the Fibre Channel Specification is supposed to guarantee interoperability in such an environment. We also want to evaluate how difficult it might be to put together a SAN using open-source components. While all the commercial vendors provide Fibre Channel support, this comes at a cost, e.g., not only O/S and drivers, but usually an expensive support contract. The open-source model could lower the cost of building and maintaining a SAN. Of course, for this to be the case, the open-source platforms would have to provide the functionality to construct a SAN. We are assembling a Fibre Channel SAN from heterogeneous hardware (i386, alpha, sparc) running *BSD, Linux, Tru64, NT and Solaris operating systems. We are running several tests to investigate the level of Fibre Channel support provided by each OS. Our current testbed is specified in the table below. Currently, it only contains open-source platforms. We plan to add a PC running OpenBSD, as well as the following commercial systems: Sun Ultra 1/Solaris, DEC AlphaServer 4000/Tru64 Unix, Pentium Pro PC/Windows NT.

Becker, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) Iteration 3.2

The Shuttle is a very reliable vehicle in comparison with other launch systems. Much of the risk posed by Shuttle operations is related to fundamental aspects of the spacecraft design and the environments in which it operates. It is unlikely that significant design improvements can be implemented to address these risks prior to the end of the Shuttle program. The model will continue to be used to identify possible emerging risk drivers and allow management to make risk-informed decisions on future missions. Potential uses of the SPRA in the future include: - Calculate risk impact of various mission contingencies (e.g. late inspection, crew rescue, etc.). - Assessing the risk impact of various trade studies (e.g. flow control valves). - Support risk analysis on mission specific events, such as in flight anomalies. - Serve as a guiding star and data source for future NASA programs.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Report on the 2011 and 2012 NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) / Alaska State Cargo Airship Workshops

This presentation will summarize the Cargo Airships for Northern Operations workshop that was held August 24-25, 2011. This workshop co-sponsored by NASA ARC and the Alaska State Department of Transportation was initiated by interest from Alaska Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell for assistance in investigating the potential benefits of proposed cargo airships for the Alaskan economy and societal needs. The workshop provided a brief background on the technology and operational aspects of conventional airships and hybrids followed by presentations on issues affecting cargo airship operations such as weather management, insurance, regulations, crew duty/rest rules, and available support infrastructures. Speakers representing potential cargo airship users from Alaskan State and commercial organizations presented the needs they felt could be met by cargo airship services. Presenters from Canadian private and military interests also detailed applications and missions that cargo airships could provide to remote regions of Canada. Cost drivers of cargo airship operations were also addressed and tools for modeling and analyzing operational factors and costs affecting cargo airship operations were discussed. Four breakout sessions were held which allowed workshop participants to contribute inputs to four topic areas: Business Approaches and Strategies (financing incentives public/private partnerships etc) for Airship Development and Operation, Design, Development, Production Challenges, and Possible Solutions, Regulatory, Certification, Legal, and Insurance Issues, and Operational Issues, Customer Requirements, and Airship Requirements. A follow on to the 2011 cargo airship workshop is being planned for July 31 August 2, 2012. A status update on this second workshop will also be presented.

Hochstettler, Ronald↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA Astronaut Urinary Conditions Associated with Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION: Spaceflight is associated with many factors which may promote kidney stone formation, urinary retention, and/or Urinary Tract Infection (UTI). According to ISS mission predictions supplied by NASA's Integrated Medical Model, kidney stone is the second and sepsis (urosepsis as primary driver) the third most likely reason for emergent medical evacuation from the International Space Station (ISS). METHODS: Inflight and postflight medical records of NASA astronauts were reviewed for urinary retention, UTI and kidney stones during Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Mir, Shuttle, and ISS expeditions 1-38. RESULTS: NASA astronauts have had 7 cases of kidney stones in the 12 months after flight. Three of these cases occurred within 90 to 180 days after landing and one of the seven cases occurred in the first 90 days after flight. There have been a total of 16 cases (0.018 events per person-flights) of urinary retention during flight. The event rates per mission are nearly identical between Shuttle and ISS flights (0.019 vs 0.021 events per person-flights). In 12 of the 16 cases, astronauts had taken at least one space motion sickness medication. Upon further analysis, it was determined that the odds of developing urinary retention in spaceflight is 3 times higher among astronauts who took promethazine. The female to male odds ratio for inflight urinary retention is 11:14. An astronaut with urinary retention is 25 times more likely to have a UTI with a 17% infection rate per mission. There have been 9 reported UTIs during spaceflight. DISCUSSION: It is unclear if spaceflight carries an increased post-flight risk of kidney stones. Regarding urinary retention, the female to male odds ratio is higher during flight compared to the general population where older males comprise almost all cases due to prostatic hypertrophy. This female prevalence in spaceflight is even more concerning given the fact that there have been many more males in space than females. Terrestrial medications with a known side effect of urinary retention are also associated with urinary retention during flight. However, not all cases of urinary retention surrounded medication use inflight. It is also known that UTI is a terrestrial cause of urinary retention. Furthermore, the treatment of urinary retention with a urinary catheter may be more likely to initiate a UTI in space than on the ground, as aseptic techniques can be particularly challenging with an inexperienced provider in a free-floating environment. Inflight urinary retention and UTI have proven to be highly associated and urinary risks should be considered collectively when planning for space flight.

Law, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2019

Five Decades of Northern Land Carbon Uptake Revealed by the Interhemispheric CO2 Gradient

The global land and ocean carbon sinks have increased proportionally with increasing carbon dioxide emissions during the past decades. It is thought that Northern Hemisphere lands make a dominant contribution to the global land carbon sink; however, the long-term trend of the northern land sink remains uncertain. Here, using measurements of the interhemispheric gradient of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 1958 to 2016, we show that the northern land sink remained stable between the 1960s and the late 1980s, then increased by 0.5 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year during the 1990s and by 0.6 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon per year during the 2000s. The increase of the northern land sink in the 1990s accounts for 65% of the increase in the global land carbon flux during that period. The subsequent increase in the 2000s is larger than the increase in the global land carbon flux, suggesting a coincident decrease of carbon uptake in the Southern Hemisphere. Comparison of our findings with the simulations of an ensemble of terrestrial carbon models over the same period suggests that the decadal change in the northern land sink between the 1960s and the 1990s can be explained by a combination of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate variability and changes in land cover. However, the increase during the 2000s is underestimated by all models, which suggests the need for improved consideration of changes in drivers such as nitrogen deposition, diffuse light and land-use change. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of Northern Hemispheric land as a carbon sink.

Carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS2007

Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

McKinley, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling of Transient Flow Mixing of Streams Injected into a Mixing Chamber

Ignition is recognized as one the critical drivers in the reliability of multiple-start rocket engines. Residual combustion products from previous engine operation can condense on valves and related structures thereby creating difficulties for subsequent starting procedures. Alternative ignition methods that require fewer valves can mitigate the valve reliability problem, but require improved understanding of the spatial and temporal propellant distribution in the pre-ignition chamber. Current design tools based mainly on one-dimensional analysis and empirical models cannot predict local details of the injection and ignition processes. The goal of this work is to evaluate the capability of the modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools in predicting the transient flow mixing in pre-ignition environment by comparing the results with the experimental data. This study is a part of a program to improve analytical methods and methodologies to analyze reliability and durability of combustion devices. In the present paper we describe a series of detailed computational simulations of the unsteady mixing events as the cold propellants are first introduced into the chamber as a first step in providing this necessary environmental description. The present computational modeling represents a complement to parallel experimental simulations' and includes comparisons with experimental results from that effort. A large number of rocket engine ignition studies has been previously reported. Here we limit our discussion to the work discussed in Refs. 2, 3 and 4 which is both similar to and different from the present approach. The similarities arise from the fact that both efforts involve detailed experimental/computational simulations of the ignition problem. The differences arise from the underlying philosophy of the two endeavors. The approach in Refs. 2 to 4 is a classical ignition study in which the focus is on the response of a propellant mixture to an ignition source, with emphasis on the level of energy needed for ignition and the ensuing flame propagation issues. Our focus in the present paper is on identifying the unsteady mixing processes that provide the propellant mixture in which the ignition source is to be placed. In particular, we wish to characterize the spatial and temporal mixture distribution with a view toward identifying preferred spatial and temporal locations for the ignition source. As such, the present work is limited to cold flow (pre-ignition) conditions

Voytovych, Dmytro M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗
NASA NTRS2004

Assimilative modeling of low latitude ionosphere

In this paper we present an observation system simulation experiment for modeling low-latitude ionosphere using a 3-dimensional (3-D) global assimilative ionospheric model (GAIM). The experiment is conducted to test the effectiveness of GAIM with a 4-D variational approach (4DVAR) in estimation of the ExB drift and thermospheric wind in the magnetic meridional planes simultaneously for all longitude or local time sectors. The operational Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and the ground-based global GPS receiver network of the International GPS Service are used in the experiment as the data assimilation source. 'The optimization of the ionospheric state (electron density) modeling is performed through a nonlinear least-squares minimization process that adjusts the dynamical forces to reduce the difference between the modeled and observed slant total electron content in the entire modeled region. The present experiment for multiple force estimations reinforces our previous assessment made through single driver estimations conducted for the ExB drift only.

data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Optical Telescope Assembly Cost Estimating Model

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to compare cost between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. The NASA Marshall Space Flight Center has developed a 5- parameter cost model that explains 93% (Adjusted R2) of the cost variation in a database of 46 total ground and space telescope assemblies. This model can be used to estimate the most probably cost for the Habitable Exoplanet Telescope Assembly.

Stahl, H Philip↗
NASA NTRS1990

Are earthquakes an example of deterministic chaos?

A simple mass-spring model is used to systematically examine the dynamical behavior introduced by fault zone heterogeneities. The model consists of two sliding blocks coupled to each other and to a constant velocity driver by elastic springs. The state of this system can be characterized by the positions of the two blocks relative to the driver. A simple static/dynamic friction law is used. When the system is symmetric, cyclic behavior is observed. For an asymmetric system, where the frictional forces for the two blocks are not equal, the solutions exhibit deterministic chaos. Chaotic windows occur repeatedly between regions of limit cycles on bifurcation diagrams. The model behavior is similar to that of the one-dimensional logistic map. The results provide substantial evidence that earthquakes are an example of deterministic chaos.

Huang, Jie↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monochromatic Measurements of the JPSS-1 VIIRS Polarization Sensitivity

Polarization sensitivity is a critical property that must be characterized for spaceborne remote sensing instruments designed to measure reflected solar radiation. Broadband testing of the first Joint Polar-orbiting Satellite System (JPSS-1) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) showed unexpectedly large polarization sensitivities for the bluest bands on VIIRS (centered between 400 and 600 nm). Subsequent ray trace modeling indicated that large diattenuation on the edges of the bandpass for these spectral bands was the driver behind these large sensitivities. Additional testing using the National Institute of Standards and Technologies Traveling Spectral Irradiance and Radiance Responsivity Calibrations Using Uniform Sources was added to the test program to verify and enhance the model. The testing was limited in scope to two spectral bands at two scan angles; nonetheless, this additional testing provided valuable insight into the polarization sensitivity. Analysis has shown that the derived diattenuation agreed with the broadband measurements to within an absolute difference of about0.4 and that the ray trace model reproduced the general features of the measured data. Additionally, by deriving the spectral responsivity, the linear diattenuation is shown to be explicitly dependent on the changes in bandwidth with polarization state.

Monochromatic↗