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At least 217 records · Page 12

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗

Task 28: Web Accessible APIs in the Cloud Trade Study

This study explored three candidate architectures for serving NASA Earth Science Hierarchical Data Format Version 5 (HDF5) data via Hyrax running on Amazon Web Services (AWS). We studied the cost and performance for each architecture using several representative Use-Cases. The objectives of the project are: Conduct a trade study to identify one or more high performance integrated solutions for storing and retrieving NASA HDF5 and Network Common Data Format Version 4 (netCDF4) data in a cloud (web object store) environment. The target environment is Amazon Web Services (AWS) Simple Storage Service (S3).Conduct needed level of software development to properly evaluate solutions in the trade study and to obtain required benchmarking metrics for input into government decision of potential follow-on prototyping. Develop a cloud cost model for the preferred data storage solution (or solutions) that accounts for different granulation and aggregation schemes as well as cost and performance trades.

cost model↗

Estimating Airline Operating Costs

The factors affecting commercial aircraft operating and delay costs were used to develop an airline operating cost model which includes a method for estimating the labor and material costs of individual airframe maintenance systems. The model permits estimates of aircraft related costs, i.e., aircraft service, landing fees, flight attendants, and control fees. A method for estimating the costs of certain types of airline delay is also described.

Maddalon, D. V.↗

Mental Models of Software Forecasting

The majority of software engineers resist the use of the currently available cost models. One problem is that the mathematical and statistical models that are currently available do not correspond with the mental models of the software engineers. In an earlier JPL funded study (Hihn and Habib-agahi, 1991) it was found that software engineers prefer to use analogical or analogy-like techniques to derive size and cost estimates, whereas curren CER's hide any analogy in the regression equations. In addition, the currently available models depend upon information which is not available during early planning when the most important forecasts must be made.

Cost Models↗

Technical assistance for law-enforcement communications: Case study report two

Two case histories are presented. In one study the feasibility of consolidating dispatch center operations for small agencies is considered. System load measurements were taken and queueing analysis applied to determine numbers of personnel required for each separate agency and for a consolidated dispatch center. Functional requirements were developed and a cost model was designed to compare relative costs of various alternatives including continuation of the present system, consolidation of a manual system, and consolidated computer-aided dispatching. The second case history deals with the consideration of a multi-regional, intrastate radio frequency for improved interregional communications. Sample standards and specifications for radio equipment are provided.

Reilly, N. B.↗

Optimizing costs of VLSI circuits

Report analyzes costs of developing and producing low-production-volume, customized VLSI (very large-scale, integrated) circuits. Relationship is developed between IC cost and electronic system cost using IC cost models based on design/fabrication approach. Emphasis is on development of understanding between cost and volume for custom circuits to be used by NASA. Reliability is major cost component in models. Report is divided into five sections and includes four appendices with useful reference literature.

Cook, K. B., Jr.↗

Liquid rocket booster integration study. Volume 4: Reviews and presentation material

Liquid rocket booster integration study is presented. Volume 4 contains materials presented at the MSFC/JSC/KSC Integrated Reviews and Working Group Sessions, and the Progress Reviews presented to the KSC Study Manager. The following subject areas are covered: initial impact assessment; conflicts with the on-going STS mission; access to the LRB at the PAD; the activation schedule; transition requirements; cost methodology; cost modelling approach; and initial life cycle cost.

Source record↗

Advanced Technology Composite Fuselage: Program Overview

The Advanced Technology Composite Aircraft Structures (ATCAS) program has studied transport fuselage structure with a large potential reduction in the total direct operating costs for wide-body commercial transports. The baseline fuselage section was divided into four 'quadrants', crown, keel, and sides, gaining the manufacturing cost advantage possible with larger panels. Key processes found to have savings potential include (1) skins laminated by automatic fiber placement, (2) braided frames using resin transfer molding, and (3) panel bond technology that minimized mechanical fastening. The cost and weight of the baseline fuselage barrel was updated to complete Phase B of the program. An assessment of the former, which included labor, material, and tooling costs, was performed with the help of design cost models. Crown, keel, and side quadrant cost distributions illustrate the importance of panel design configuration, area, and other structural details. Composite sandwich panel designs were found to have the greatest cost savings potential for most quadrants. Key technical findings are summarized as an introduction to the other contractor reports documenting Phase A and B work completed in functional areas. The current program status in resolving critical technical issues is also highlighted.

Ilcewicz, L. B.↗

Cost analysis of advanced turbine blade manufacturing processes

A rigorous analysis was conducted to estimate relative manufacturing costs for high technology gas turbine blades prepared by three candidate materials process systems. The manufacturing costs for the same turbine blade configuration of directionally solidified eutectic alloy, an oxide dispersion strengthened superalloy, and a fiber reinforced superalloy were compared on a relative basis to the costs of the same blade currently in production utilizing the directional solidification process. An analytical process cost model was developed to quantitatively perform the cost comparisons. The impact of individual process yield factors on costs was also assessed as well as effects of process parameters, raw materials, labor rates and consumable items.

Barth, C. F.↗

Developing the concept of a geostationary platform

A geostationary platform concept with a proliferation of low-cost earth stations is discussed. Candidate platform concepts, servicing, life, and Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) options are considered. A Life Cycle Costing model is used to select the minimum cost concept meeting program criteria. It is concluded that the geostationary platform concept is a practical and economical approach to providing expanding communication services within the limitations imposed by the available frequency spectrum and orbital arc.

Carey, W. T.↗

Space Station viewing requirements

Concern based on historical precedent led to early investment of resources to identify Space Station viewing requirements in order that they could be transferred to module window designs, cupolas, indirect viewing methods (e.g., closed circuit television), and implemented in cost models tracking overall station configuration weight and cost. Previous space history and earth based analogs were used to identify needs and requirements relevant to long term missions.

Mount, Frances E.↗

Lessons learned - MO&DA at JPL

The issues of how to avoid future surprise growth in Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO&DA) costs and how to minimize total MO&DA costs for planetary missions are discussed within the context of JPL mission operations support. It is argued that there is no simple, single solution: the entire Project life-cycle must be addressed. It is concluded that cost models that can predict both MO&DA cost as well as Ground System development costs are needed. The first year MO&DA budget plotted against the total of ground and flight systems developments is shown. In order to better recognize changes and control costs in general, a modified funding line item breakdown is recommended to distinguish between development costs (prelaunch and postlaunch) and MO&DA costs.

Handley, Thomas H., Jr.↗

Improving Space Project Cost Estimating with Engineering Management Variables

Current space project cost models attempt to predict space flight project cost via regression equations, which relate the cost of projects to technical performance metrics (e.g. weight, thrust, power, pointing accuracy, etc.). This paper examines the introduction of engineering management parameters to the set of explanatory variables. A number of specific engineering management variables are considered and exploratory regression analysis is performed to determine if there is statistical evidence for cost effects apart from technical aspects of the projects. It is concluded that there are other non-technical effects at work and that further research is warranted to determine if it can be shown that these cost effects are definitely related to engineering management.

Hamaker, Joseph W.↗

Evaluation of solar electric propulsion technologies for discovery class missions

A detailed study examines the potential benefits that advanced electric propulsion (EP) technologies offer to the cost-capped missions in NASA's Discovery program. The study looks at potential cost and performance benefits provided by three EP technologies that are currently in development: NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), an Enhanced NSTAR system, and a Low Power Hall effect thruster. These systems are analyzed on three straw man Discovery class missions and their performance is compared to a state of the art system using the NSTAR ion thruster. An electric propulsion subsystem cost model is used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each option. The results show that each proposed technology offers a different degree of performance and/or cost benefit for Discovery class missions.

discovery↗

Xenia Spacecraft Study Addendum: Spacecraft Cost Estimate

This slide presentation reviews the Xenia spacecraft cost estimates as an addendum for the Xenia Spacecraft study. The NASA/Air Force Cost model (NAFCPOM) was used to derive the cost estimates that are expressed in 2009 dollars.

Hill, Spencer↗

The Potential for Helicopter Passenger Service in Major Urban Areas

An interurban helicopter cost model having the capability of selecting an efficient helicopter network for a given city in terms of service and total operating costs was developed. This model which is based upon the relationship between total and direct operating costs and the number of block hours of helicopter operation is compiled in terms of a computer program which simulates the operation of an intracity helicopter fleet over a given network. When applied to specific urban areas, the model produces results in terms of a break-even air passenger market penetration rate, which is the percent of the air travelers in each of those areas that must patronize the helicopter network to make it break even commercially. A total of twenty major metropolitan areas are analyzed and are ranked initially according to cost per seat mile and then according to break-even penetration rate.

Dajani, J. S.↗

Design, processing and testing of LSI arrays: Hybrid microelectronics task

Mathematical cost factors were generated for both hybrid microcircuit and printed wiring board packaging methods. A mathematical cost model was created for analysis of microcircuit fabrication costs. The costing factors were refined and reduced to formulae for computerization. Efficient methods were investigated for low cost packaging of LSI devices as a function of density and reliability. Technical problem areas such as wafer bumping, inner/outer leading bonding, testing on tape, and tape processing, were investigated.

Himmel, R. P.↗

Strawman Optical Reception Development Antenna (SORDA)

A strawman design of a ground-based station for receiving optical communications from deep space is presented. This strawman will serve as a basis for further study and design refinement. The recommendation to build rather than to use an existing facility is explained. Parameters of the design were selected to postulate a workable system, starting with a 10 m diameter, hexagonally segmented, f/0.5 primary mirror. The effects of variations of design parameters on performance and cost are discussed. Some design formulas are included. An electro-optical functional block diagram is presented and discussed. Cost calculations are based on a previous cost model for the hardware or on typical construction costs per unit area for several types of facilities. Other cost factors are included in the usual way for Construction of Facilities. The ratio of high and low reasonable values was less than a factor of 2, with a best estimate of under $16,000,000.

Kerr, E. L.↗