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At least 217 records · Page 12

Impact of Cyber Threat Awareness on Driver Response to an Unexpected Vehicle Cyberattack

Here, the integration of advanced cyber-physical systems in heavy vehicles introduces new vulnerabilities by expanding the possibility of cyberattacks. The objective of this study is to evaluate (1) how threat awareness influences driver response to an unexpected cyberattack, (2) how the provision of a basic cyberattack response protocol influences driver performance, and (3) how professionally trained versus standard drivers compare in their responses to a cyberattack. An on-road driving study (N = 50) was conducted using a medium heavy-duty vehicle. Participants were divided into three groups: Control, which remained unaware of any potential cyberattack; Aware, which was informed about the potential cyberattack; and Aware + Protocol, which received the same warning as the Aware group with the addition of a basic cyberattack response protocol. An instrument cluster cyberattack was executed at the same location for all participants. The findings highlight the essential role of awareness and response protocol in enhancing driver response to an unexpected vehicle cyberattack. The Aware + Protocol group had the highest stop rate (100%) and the shortest stopping distances (224 m for standard drivers and 254 m for professionals), compared to the Control group (828 and 520 m, respectively). Aware + Protocol also had the fastest reaction time, averaging 7.53 s, versus 16.12 s (Aware) and 30.29 s (Control). These results emphasize that awareness alone is insufficient. Providing drivers with clear, actionable protocols significantly improves their ability to react quickly and safely to cyberattacks, enhancing overall road safety.

Cybersecurity↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Agnostic capture of pathogens for the detection and diagnostics of emerging threats

The continued emergence of pathogens, whether novel, re-emerging, or engineered, poses a persistent global biosecurity and public health challenge. Recent outbreaks, including COVID-19, Lassa fever, Marburg virus, mpox, and avian influenza, underscore the urgent need for robust systems that enable rapid surveillance, early diagnosis, and timely countermeasures before widespread human transmission occurs. In this article, we focus on early detection technologies and systematically evaluate current diagnostic and sensing modalities. We highlight sequencing and spectroscopy as two complementary approaches capable of providing broad, agnostic detection and rich biological insight. Our analysis emphasizes that scientific innovation alone is insufficient: effective preparedness also requires improved data curation, integration, and sharing to build AI-ready resources that accelerate future responses. We argue for coordinated advances in both technological capabilities and supporting infrastructure to enable the rapid identification and characterization of emerging pathogens and to fully leverage modern science against evolving infectious threats.

Environmental health↗

Mapping threats to agriculture in East Africa: Performance of MODIS derived LST for frost identification in Kenya’s tea plantations

Frost is a major threat to crop productivity in the Kenyan highlands. With agriculture being central to the Kenyan economy, every effort needs to be taken to alleviate losses especially on high value crops like tea, the leading foreign exchange earner. Current frost mapping efforts by SERVIR, a joint initiative between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and its hub institution in Eastern and Southern Africa, the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD), utilizes Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) to probabilistically map areas that have been affected by frost. In this paper, we assessed the accuracy of these frost maps by testing the performance of MYD11A1 MODIS product in indicating areas affected by frost. MODIS derived LST values corresponding to frost and no frost observation locations and dates were reclassified according to 6 predetermined categories representing frost severity levels. The overall accuracy of each threshold category as LST cutoff separating frost and no frost affected areas was determined. An overall performance measure was then estimated using a Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (ROC). Overall accuracies of 67.3%–71.9% among the thresholds were obtained. An area under the ROC curve of 0.69 was obtained, indicating a poor performance of MODIS LST to distinguish frost from no frost areas. This shows that although MODIS derived LST can be used to identify frost-affected areas, it is not on its own sufficient in discriminating these areas with high levels of accuracy. Revision of temperature thresholds is recommended, in addition to improved characterization of frost occurrence in the region to include other factors that may be affecting frost occurrence. These results stand to better prepare the agricultural sector for damaging weather-related events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A data analytical approach for assessing the efficacy of Operational Technology active defenses against insider threats

In recent years, the need for Operational Technology (OT) defenses has been recognized, serving as an additional line of defense when Information Technology (IT) defenses are bypassed. This is no longer considered an uncommon possibility when dealing with advanced persistent threat (APT) actors expected to be state-sponsored and receiving insider assistance. In these extreme adversarial situations, OT defenses aim to provide another layer of defense for the system, introduced directly at the physical process level, as described by the sensors data, the system model, and control actions. Just like IT defenses, two schools of thought, i.e., passive and active defenses, have emerged to address this challenge. In active defenses, representing the focus of this paper, known signatures, synthesized based on the system's unique characteristics, are inserted into the system. In contradistinction, passive methods rely solely on observing system behavior in search of patterns of normal behavior with deviations thereof representing abnormal behavior. In their most sophisticated implementations, both passive and active defenses rely on the use of data analytics to identify the patterns and synthesize the observed and/or inserted signatures. Past research has shown that passive defenses may be bypassed by APT actors relying on data analytics and their intimate knowledge of the system to evade detection by respecting the patterns identified by the defenders. Here this manuscript explores the use of active defenses under the assumption that the attacker has privileged access to the system, including access to the system's model and sensors data. Specifically, this manuscript assesses the ability of active defenses to remain invisible to the attackers, and discusses the associated challenges that must be addressed to ensure their resiliency against APT actors.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Protection against Chemical Warfare Agents and Biological Threats Using Metal–Organic Frameworks as Active Layers

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic outbreak and the unfortunate misuse of toxic chemical warfare agents (CWAs) highlight the importance of developing functional materials to protect against these chemical and pathogen threats. Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs), which comprise a tunable class of crystalline porous materials built from inorganic nodes and organic linkers, have emerged as a class of heterogeneous catalysts capable of rapid detoxification of multiple classes of these harmful chemical or biological hazards. In particular, zirconium-based MOFs (Zr-MOFs) feature Lewis acidic nodes that serve as active sites for a wide range of catalytic reactions, including the hydrolysis of organophosphorus nerve agents within seconds in basic aqueous solutions. In addition, postsynthetic modification of Zr-MOFs enables the release of active species capable of reacting with and deactivating harmful pathogens. Despite this impressive performance, utilizing Zr- MOFs in powder form is not practical for application in masks or protective uniforms. To address this challenge, our team sought to develop MOF/fiber composite systems that could be adapted for use under realistic operating conditions to protect civilians, military personnel, and first responders from harmful pathogens and chemical warfare agents. Over the last several years, our group has designed and fabricated reactive and biocidal MOF/fiber composites that effectively capture and deactivate these toxic species. In this Account, we describe the evolution of these porous and reactive MOF/fiber composites and focus on key design challenges and considerations. First, we devised a scalable method for the integration of Zr-MOFs onto textile substrates using aqueous precursor solutions and without using pretreated textiles, highlighting the potential scalability of this method. Moving beyond standard textiles, we also developed a microbial synthesis strategy to prepare hierarchically porous MOF/bacterial cellulose nanofiber composite sponges that can both capture and detoxify nerve agents when exposed to contaminated gas flows. The mass loading of the MOF in the nanofibrous composite sponge is up to 90%, affording higher work capacities compared to those of textile-fiber-based composites with relatively lower MOF loadings. Next, we demonstrated that heterogeneous polymeric bases are suitable replacements for volatile liquid bases typically used in solution-phase reactions, and we showed that these composite systems are capable of effectively hydrolyzing nerve agents in the solid state by using only water that is present as humidity. Moreover, incorporating a reactive dye precursor into the composite affords a dual function sensing and detoxifying material that changes color from white to orange upon reaction with the byproduct following nerve agent hydrolysis, demonstrating the versatility of this platform for use in decontamination applications. We then created chlorine-loaded MOF/fiber composites that act as biocidal and reactive textiles that are capable of not only detoxifying sulfur-mustard-based chemical warfare agents and simulants but also deactivating both bacteria and the SARS-CoV-2 virus within minutes of exposure. Lastly, we synthesized a mixed-metal Ti/Zr-MOF coating on cotton fibers to afford a photoactive biocidal cloth that shows fast and broad-spectrum biocidal performance against viruses and Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria under visible light irradiation. Given the tunable, multifunctional nature of these MOF/fiber composites, we believe that this Account will offer new insights for the rational design and preparation of functional MOF/fiber composites and pave the way toward the development of next-generation reactive and protective textiles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mitigating the Threat of Nuclear-Weapon Proliferation via Nuclear-Submarine Programs

Brazil is building a nuclear-powered attack submarine, South Korea has in the past asserted its need for nuclear-powered attack submarines to deal with the threat of North Korean nuclear-armed submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and Iran has asserted more vaguely its need for naval nuclear propulsion. All three countries are non-weapon-state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Their interest in naval reactors brings with it two challenges to the NPT: 1) The safeguards “loophole” under which a country can withdraw nuclear materials from IAEA safeguards indefinitely for allowed “non-peaceful activities;” and 2) A justification for the acquisition of national uranium-enrichment facilities because the international suppliers of enrichment services have peaceful-use requirements. In fact, Brazil’s acquisition of enrichment was driven by its navy. It is argued, however, that nuclear-powered attack submarines have advantages over modern conventional attack submarines primarily in their ability to transit great distances at high speed whereas only a few countries have foreign military commitments requiring such capabilities. For defense of nearby waters against foreign navies, attack submarines are merely one component of a complex system of anti-submarine aircraft and surface vessels and underwater sensor networks. Conventional attack submarines are no less effective and much less costly than nuclear-powered attack submarines in this role.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Conceptual Architecture for National Biosurveillance: Moving Beyond Situational Awareness to Enable Digital Detection of Emerging Threats

Despite numerous calls for improvement, the U.S. biosurveillance enterprise remains a patchwork of uncoordinated systems that fail to take advantage of the rapid progress in information processing, communication, and analytics made in the past decade. By synthesizing components from the extensive biosurveillance literature, we propose a conceptual framework for a national biosurveillance architecture and provide suggestions for implementation. The framework differs from the current federal biosurveillance development pathway in that it is not focused on systems useful for “situational awareness,” but is instead focused on the long-term goal of having true warning capabilities. Therefore, a guiding design objective is the ability to digitally detect emerging threats that span jurisdictional boundaries, because attempting to solve the most challenging biosurveillance problem first provides the strongest foundation to meet simpler surveillance objectives. Core components of the vision are: (1) a whole-of-government approach to support currently disparate federal surveillance efforts that have a common data need, including those for food safety, vaccine and medical product safety, and infectious disease surveillance; (2) an information architecture that enables secure, national access to electronic health records, yet does not require that data be sent to a centralized location for surveillance analysis; (3) an inference architecture that leverages advances in ‘big data’ analytics and learning inference engines—a significant departure from the statistical process control paradigm that underpins nearly all current syndromic surveillance systems; and, (4) an organizational architecture with a governance model aimed at establishing national biosurveillance as a critical part of the U.S. national infrastructure. Although it will take many years to implement, and a national campaign of education and debate to acquire public buy-in for such a comprehensive system, the potential benefits warrant increased consideration within the U.S. government.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

SeqMask: Behavior Extraction Over Cyber Threat Intelligence Via Multi-Instance Learning

Abstract Identification and extraction of Tactics, Techniques and Procedures (TTPs) for Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) restore the full picture of cyber attacks and guide the analysts to assess the system risk. Existing frameworks can hardly provide uniform and complete processing mechanisms for TTPs information extraction without adequate knowledge background. A multi-instance learning approach named SeqMask is proposed in this paper as a solution. SeqMask extracts behavior keywords from CTI evaluated by the semantic impact, and predicts TTPs labels by conditional probabilities. Still, the framework has two mechanisms to determine the validity of keywords. One using expert experience verification. The other verifies the distortion of the classification effect by blocking existing keywords. In the experiments, SeqMask reached 86.07% and 73.99% in F1 scores for TTPs classifications. For the top 20% of keywords, the expert approval rating is 92.20%, where the average repetition of keywords whose scores between 100% and 90% is 60.02%. Particularly, when the top 65% of the keywords were blocked, the F1 decreased to about 50%; when removing the top 50%, the F1 was under 31%. Further, we also validate the possibility of extracting TTPs from full-size CTI and malware whose F1 are improved by 2.16% and 0.81%.

Ge, Wenhan↗

The increasing threat of Rift Valley fever virus globalization: strategic guidance for protection and preparation

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) (Bunyavirales: Phlebovirus) is a prominent vector-borne zoonotic disease threat to global agriculture and public health. Risks of introduction into nonendemic regions are tied to changing climate regimes and other dynamic environmental factors that are becoming more prevalent, as well as virus evolutionary factors and human/animal movement. Endemic to the African continent, RVFV has caused large epizootics at the decadal scale since the early 20th century but has spread to the Arabian Peninsula and shows increasing patterns of interepizootic transmission on the annual scale. This virus can be transmitted by mosquitoes as well as through direct contact with infected tissues and can cause sporadic to widespread morbidity and mortality in domestic ungulate livestock as well as humans. High viremias in infected livestock moved for legal and illegal trade as well as in infected mosquitoes or human travelers can spread this virus worldwide. With increasing global commerce, it is likely RVFV will be introduced to new areas with suitable hosts, mosquito vector species, and environments. However, the strong mosquito component of RVFV epidemiology combined with advancements in vaccines, diagnostics, and virus evolutionary factors create opportunities for strategies to leverage models of connectivity among potential source and emerging regions to target surveillance and mitigation activities to reduce the risk of RVFV introduction, or contain the virus should it be introduced, into new regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Aviation Transportation, Cyber Threats, and Network-of-Networks: Modeling Perspectives for Translating Theory to Practice

Understanding aviation transportation infrastructure system behavior and coupling with communication networks is essential for securing and restoring functionality against cyber-enabled threats. While significant progress has been made in the past decade on developing infrastructure resilience theories based on network structure and operations, translating and generalizing them to real-world practice has often been challenging due to imperfect data and inapplicability of modeling assumptions. These typically include: 1) stylized network structures without uncertainty, 2) node homogeneity, 3) static criticality measures, and 4) unrealistic cascade models originating from single points of failure. This paper presents modeling perspectives that aim to address these theory-to-practice challenges using a well-grounded network-of-networks (NoN) construct. Real-world modeling challenges are identified and a network theory-guided conceptual NoN model is developed that may be operationalized with the U.S. national airspace system airport network (NASAN) and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) communication network as application domain. Improving accuracy in loss of functionality estimates due to cyber events in communication networks and cascading air travel delay impacts is key for informing consequence-based decision support and risk/contingency analyses.

Bhatia, Udit↗

Resilience Analysis of DC Microgrids under Denial of Service Threats

This paper develops a resilience analysis framework to study the fault ride-through capability of direct current (DC) microgrids in unknown denial of service (DoS) cyber incidents. DoS can be a frequent threat to DC microgrids with advanced controllers that hinge on active information exchanges: it can paralyze data communications and cause control ineptness or even system instability. Furthermore, we show that temporal DoS incidents render the DC microgrid cyber-physical topology and parameters time-varying and cause them to jump between faulty conditions. As existing DC microgrid stability analysis results are primarily developed from time-invariant systems, they might not be valid for the DoS interrupted systems. In this paper, we seek to study whether a DC microgrid is resilient against time-varying unknown DoS incidents. The problem is formulated as a stability analysis problem for a system with randomly switching dynamics. Scalable conditions are developed to provide provable resilience guarantees. In addition, we exploit the special structure of the conditions to yield quantified resilience measure by convex optimization techniques. As a result, the measure can be used for the evaluation of the resilience of different DC microgrid design against DoS incidents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed work using simulation case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Optical constants measurements of liquids for modeling aerosolized threats

Spectroscopic identification of aerosolized chemical threats is challenging due to the complex nature of the photon/particle interaction, as well as the diversity of possible particle sizes, morphologies, and compositions. Constructing a database of laboratory - measured transmittance spectra that covers each permutation is not practical. However, calculation of the spectra using the measured optical constants as a function of wavenumber, n(?) and k(?), for each of the liquids and/or solids composing the aerosol particles provides a viable alternative. These synthetic spectra (vis-à-vis laboratory-measured spectra) can be used to identify chemicals of interest and subtract out background interferents in field measurements. Using a well-established multiple pathlength approach, we measure the optical constants n/k for liquids that may be found as chemical species of interest or common background interferents aerosolized in plumes. These measurements are also used to generate several test case aerosol synthetic spectra.

Lockwood, Schuyler↗

A global perspective on wetland salinization: ecological consequences of a growing threat to freshwater wetlands

Salinization, a widespread threat to the structure and ecological functioning of inland and coastal wetlands, is currently occurring at an unprecedented rate and geographic scale. The causes of salinization are diverse and include alterations to freshwater flows, land-clearance, irrigation, disposal of wastewater effluent, sea level rise, storm surges, and applications of de-icing salts. Climate change and anthropogenic modifications to the hydrologic cycle are expected to further increase the extent and severity of wetland salinization. Salinization alters the fundamental physicochemical nature of the soil-water environment, increasing ionic concentrations and altering chemical equilibria and mineral solubility. Increased concentrations of solutes, especially sulfate, alter the biogeochemical cycling of major elements including carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, iron, and silica. The effects of salinization on wetland biogeochemistry typically include decreased inorganic nitrogen removal (with implications for water quality and climate regulation), decreased carbon storage (with implications for climate regulation and wetland accretion), and increased generation of toxic sulfides (with implications for nutrient cycling and the health/functioning of wetland biota). Indeed, increased salt and sulfide concentrations induce physiological stress in wetland biota and ultimately can result in large shifts in wetland communities and their associated ecosystem functions. The productivity and composition of freshwater species assemblages will be highly altered, and there is a high potential for the disruption of existing interspecific interactions. Although there is a wealth of information on how salinization impacts individual ecosystem components, relatively few studies have addressed the complex and often non-linear feedbacks that determine ecosystem-scale responses or considered how wetland salinization will affect landscape-level processes. Although the salinization of wetlands may be unavoidable in many cases, these systems may also prove to be a fertile testing ground for broader ecological theories including (but not limited to): investigations into alternative stable states and tipping points, trophic cascades, disturbance-recovery processes, and the role of historical events and landscape context in driving community response to disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Threat Reduction Initiative Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project: Sample Management Plan

This sample management plan provides guidelines for sectioning, preparation, acceptance criteria, analytical path, and end-of-life disposal for the fuel element segments utilized in the Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI), Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project. The Fuel Thermo-Physical Characterization Project is tasked with analysis of irradiated Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) Molybdenum (U-Mo) fuel element samples to support the GTRI conversion program. Sample analysis may include optical microscopy (OM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fuel-surface interface analysis, gas pycnometry (density) measurements, laser flash analysis (LFA), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis with mass spectroscopy (TG /DTA-MS), Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectrophotometry (ICP), alpha spectroscopy, and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS). The project will utilize existing Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL) operating, technical, and administrative procedures for sample receipt, processing, and analyses. Test instructions (TIs), which are documents used to provide specific details regarding the implementation of an existing RPL approved technical or operational procedure, will also be used to communicate to staff project specific parameters requested by the Principal Investigator (PI). TIs will be developed, reviewed, and issued in accordance with the latest revision of the RPL-PLN-700, RPL Operations Plan. Additionally, the PI must approve all project test instructions and red-line changes to test instructions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗