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NASA NTRS2012

Objective Characterization of Snow Microstructure for Microwave Emission Modeling

Passive microwave (PM) measurements are sensitive to the presence and quantity of snow, a fact that has long been used to monitor snowcover from space. In order to estimate total snow water equivalent (SWE) within PM footprints (on the order of approx 100 sq km), it is prerequisite to understand snow microwave emission at the point scale and how microwave radiation integrates spatially; the former is the topic of this paper. Snow microstructure is one of the fundamental controls on the propagation of microwave radiation through snow. Our goal in this study is to evaluate the prospects for driving the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks with objective measurements of snow specific surface area to reproduce measured brightness temperatures when forced with objective measurements of snow specific surface area (S). This eliminates the need to treat the grain size as a free-fit parameter.

Durand, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evidence of a Discontinuous Disk Structure Around the Herbig Ae Star HD 139614

The formation and evolution of a planetary system are intrinsically linked to the evolution of the primordial accretion disk and its dust and gas content. A new class of pre-main sequence objects has been recently identified as pre-transitional disks. They present near-infrared excess coupled to a flux deficit at about 10 microns and a rising mid-infrared and far-infrared spectrum. These features suggest a disk structure with inner and outer dust components, separated by a dust-depleted region (or gap). This could be the result of particular planet formation mechanisms that occur during the disk evolution. We here report on the first interferometric observations of the disk around the Herbig Ae star HD 139614. Its infrared spectrum suggests a flared disk, and presents pre-transitional features, namely a substantial near-infrared excess accompanied by a dip around 6 microns and a rising mid-infrared part. In this framework, we performed a study of the spectral energy distribution (SED) and the mid-infrared VLTI/MIDI interferometric data to constrain the spatial structure of the inner dust disk region and assess its possibly multi-component structure. We based our work on a temperature-gradient disk model that includes dust opacity.While we could not reproduce the SED and interferometric visibilities with a one-component disk, a better agreement was obtained with a two-component disk model composed of an optically thin inner disk extending from 0.22 to 2.3 AU, a gap, and an outer temperature-gradient disk starting at 5.6 AU. Therefore, our modeling favors an extended and optically thin inner dust component and in principle rules out the possibility that the near-infrared excess originates only from a spatially confined region. Moreover, the outer disk is characterized by a very steep temperature profile and a temperature higher than 300 K at its inner edge. This suggests the existence of a warm component corresponding to a scenario where the inner edge of the outer disk is directly illuminated by the central star. This is an expected consequence of the presence of a gap, thus indicative of a "pre-transitional" structure.

primordial accretion disk↗

NASA NTRS2015

Consolidating NASA's Arc Jets

The paper describes the consolidation of NASA's high powered arc-jet testing at a single location. The existing plasma arc-jet wind tunnels located at the Johnson Space Center were relocated to Ames Research Center while maintaining NASA's technical capability to ground-test thermal protection system materials under simulated atmospheric entry convective heating. The testing conditions at JSC were reproduced and successfully demonstrated at ARC through close collaboration between the two centers. New equipment was installed at Ames to provide test gases of pure nitrogen mixed with pure oxygen, and for future nitrogen-carbon dioxide mixtures. A new control system was custom designed, installed and tested. Tests demonstrated the capability of the 10 MW constricted-segmented arc heater at Ames meets the requirements of the major customer, NASA's Orion program. Solutions from an advanced computational fluid dynamics code were used to aid in characterizing the properties of the plasma stream and the surface environment on the calorimeters in the supersonic flow stream produced by the arc heater.

Consolidation↗

NASA NTRS2020

Improving Quantitative Laboratory Analysis of Phycobiliproteins to Provide High Quality Validation Data for Ocean Color Remote Sensing Algorithm

Identification and characterization of phytoplankton communities and their physiology is a primary aim of NASA's PACE satellite mission. The concentration and composition of phytoplankton pigments modulate the spectral distribution of light emanating from the ocean, which is measured by ocean color satellites, and thus provide critical information on phytoplankton community composition and physiological parameters. One diagnostic class of pigments not routinely well-characterized is the phycobiliproteins (PBPs), and NASA has a requirement to collect and distribute high quality in situ data in support of data product validation activities for ocean color missions. Phycobiliproteins are light-harvesting proteins that are the predominant photosynthetic pigments in some classes of phytoplankton including cyanobacteria, such as Synechococcus, Trichodesmium, and Microcystis. With the advance of hyperspectral ocean color sensors such as on PACE (expected to launch in late 2022), it is essential that we implement routine analysis of PBPs that satisfies several considerations: reproducible, high extraction efficiency for a variety of environments, and Suitable for large scale analysis. Published techniques for PBP analysis vary in recommendations for: collection, extraction, disruption mode, and analysis; evidence suggests the variation in results may depend at least in part on the species and even strain(s) of interest. Experiments that tested variations in these parameters have drawn very different conclusions regarding extraction efficiency and reproducibility. Cyanobacteria are more difficult to extract than other PBP-containing algae such as cryptophytes, but can be important primary producers. We used a cryptophyte (Rhodomonas salina) and cyanobacterium (Synechococcus sp.) to compare extraction efficiencies of water samples concentrated via centrifugation to filtered samples using two different extraction buffers (phosphate and asolectin-CHAPS). Samples were analyzed on a fluorometer configured for PC and PE detection. The results have important implications for collection and storage of samples for routine analysis; some previous studies (although not all) have suggested that filtered samples have a much lower extraction efficiency than whole water samples.

Kenemer, Christopher↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System: Implementation and Basic Experiments

A three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), named ROMS3DVAR, has been described in the work of Li et al. (2008). In this paper, ROMS3DVAR is applied to the central California coastal region, an area characterized by inhomogeneity and anisotropy, as well as by dynamically unbalanced flows. A method for estimating the model error variances from limited observations is presented, and the construction of the inhomogeneous and anisotropic error correlations based on the Kronecker product is demonstrated. A set of single observation experiments illustrates the inhomogeneous and anisotropic error correlations and weak dynamic constraints used. Results are presented from the assimilation of data gathered during the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN) experiment during August 2003. The results show that ROMS3DVAR is capable of reproducing complex flows associated with upwelling and relaxation, as well as the rapid transitions between them. Some difficulties encountered during the experiment are also discussed.

California coastal ocean↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Scanning Electron Microscope Experiments for Microscale Mechanical Testing and Validated Modeling of Fiber Reinforced Thermoplastics

A novel, in-situ, scanning electron microscope (SEM) mechanical testing capability for materials at the microscale which provides experimental validation to a machine learning (ML) toolset for full-field validation of physics-based micromechanics models is being developed by researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center. These are enabling technologies for the integration of multiscale digital twins for materials into system level models which will result in the improved performance, material discovery, reduced production cost and time, rapid characterization, and prognostic structural health monitoring (SHM) for materials and structures for extreme environments in support of NASA space exploration missions. In order to bridge the material structure-to-system gap for digital twins, physics-based models must be experimentally validated at multiple length scales. Seminal microscale experiments, conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), were limited to transverse compression of single-layer, unidirectional thermoset polymer matrix composite (PMC) micropillar specimens [1]. The early phases of the current project followed those initial results and setup to reproduce the compression testing of PMC material on the custom-built piezoelectric actuated micromechanical testing rig built by MicroTesting Solutions LLC. In this work, samples of thermoplastic PMC material were first machined into 3 mm cubes, and then further machining and final milling was done using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB). The initial experiment was done on a pillar roughly 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall. Additional pillars were milled with final sizes ranging from 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall to 40 µm x 40 µm x 65 µm tall. A speckle pattern for in-situ full-field measurements using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was applied with platinum, which was coated on the surface, and then the FIB was used to mill away some of the coating to produce an irregular pattern of Pt on the pillar surface. The samples were loaded into the custom testing rig and placed into the SEM and loaded under compression until failure. Images were collected in the SEM during testing. Post-processing of the images was conducted using DIC to obtain full-field displacement and strain measurements elucidating the role of the matrix as well as fiber-fiber interaction at the microscale within the composite subjected to compression loading well into the non-linear regime of the material. Moreover, the evolution of fiber-matrix debonding and matrix cracking is observed in-situ at the microscale. This data, along with images segmented with a newly developed ML toolset [2], was used to create and validate physics-based micromechanics models. An image of the failed micropillar is shown in Figure 1. The techniques developed in the initial compression experiment was tailored to the validation needs of the models and expanded to include different sized samples as well as possibly tension and fatigue.

Laura Wilson↗

NASA NTRS1986

Magsat equivalent source anomalies over the southeastern United States - Implications for crustal magnetization

The Magsat crustal anomaly field depicts a previously-unidentified long-wavelength negative anomaly centered over southeastern Georgia. Examination of Magsat ascending and descending passes clearly identifies the anomalous region, despite the high-frequency noise present in the data. Using ancillary seismic, electrical conductivity, Bouguer gravity, and aeromagnetic data, a preliminary model of crustal magnetization for the southern Appalachian region is presented. A lower crust characterized by a pervasive negative magnetization contrast extends from the New York-Alabama lineament southeast to the Fall Line. In southern Georgia and eastern Alabama (coincident with the Brunswick Terrane), the model calls for lower crustal magnetization contrast of -2.4 A/m; northern Georgia and the Carolinas are modeled with contrasts of -1.5 A/m. Large-scale blocks in the upper crust which correspond to the Blue Ridge, Charlotte belt, and Carolina Slate belt, are modeled with magnetization contrasts of -1.2 A/m, 1.2 A/m, and 1.2 A/m respectively. The model accurately reproduces the amplitude of the observed low in the equivalent source Magsat anomaly field calculated at 325 km altitude and is spatially consistent with the 400 km lowpass-filtered aeromagnetic map of the region.

Ruder, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Pulse Detonation Engine Test Bed Developed

A detonation is a supersonic combustion wave. A Pulse Detonation Engine (PDE) repetitively creates a series of detonation waves to take advantage of rapid burning and high peak pressures to efficiently produce thrust. NASA Glenn Research Center's Combustion Branch has developed a PDE test bed that can reproduce the operating conditions that might be encountered in an actual engine. It allows the rapid and cost-efficient evaluation of the technical issues and technologies associated with these engines. The test bed is modular in design. It consists of various length sections of both 2- and 2.6- in. internal-diameter combustor tubes. These tubes can be bolted together to create a variety of combustor configurations. A series of bosses allow instrumentation to be inserted on the tubes. Dynamic pressure sensors and heat flux gauges have been used to characterize the performance of the test bed. The PDE test bed is designed to utilize an existing calorimeter (for heat load measurement) and windowed (for optical access) combustor sections. It uses hydrogen as the fuel, and oxygen and nitrogen are mixed to simulate air. An electronic controller is used to open the hydrogen and air valves (or a continuous flow of air is used) and to fire the spark at the appropriate times. Scheduled tests on the test bed include an evaluation of the pumping ability of the train of detonation waves for use in an ejector and an evaluation of the pollutants formed in a PDE combustor. Glenn's Combustion Branch uses the National Combustor Code (NCC) to perform numerical analyses of PDE's as well as to evaluate alternative detonative combustion devices. Pulse Detonation Engine testbed.

Breisacher, Kevin J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Broad-Band Continuum and Line Emission of the gamma-Ray Blazar PKS 0537-441

PKS 0537-441, a bright gamma ray emitting blazar was observed at radio, optical, UV and X-ray frequencies during various EGRET paintings, often quasi-simultaneously. In 1995 the object was found in an intense emission state at all wavelengths. BeppoSAX observations made in 1998, non-simultaneously with exposures at other frequencies, allow us to characterize precisely the spectral shape of the high energy blazer component, which we attribute to inverse Compton scatter in The optical-to-gamma-ray spectral energy distributions at the different epochs show that the gamma-ray luminosity dominates the barometric output. This, together with the presence of optical and UV line emission, suggests that, besides the synchrotron self-Compton mechanism, the Compton upscattering of photons external to the jet (e.g., in the broad line region) may have a significant role for high energy radiation. The multiwavelength variability can be reproduced by changes of the plasma bulk Lorentz factor. The spectrum secured by ICE in 1995 appears to be partially absorbed shortward of approximately 1700 Angstroms. However, this signature is not detected in the HST spectrum taker during a lower state of the source. The presence of intervening absorbers is not supported by optical imaging and spectroscopy of the field.

Pian, E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Integrated Performance Modeling in the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment Project

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Human Research Program’s Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) was a significant step forward in efforts to robustly quantify the risk to crew health for exploration missions. However, there remains a significant gap in the ability to comprehensively assess and characterize risk across the disparate functionalities and capabilities which comprise the Crew Health and Performance (CHP) system. The Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) project seeks to characterize CHP risks by expanding beyond the foundation established by its PRA predecessors like IMM and MEDPRAT, that simulate medical risk metrics like loss of crew life and evacuations. One of the new risk measures in the CHP-PRA system is embodied in our Performance Risk Model (PRisM). PRisM provides a novel way of assessing crew performance on mission tasks, using a generalized framework which relates back to NASA-STD-3001. This approach allows PRisM to capture and integrate data from a variety of different domains into a single, unified, reproducible representation of astronaut performance. In this presentation, we discuss the motivation for the CHP-PRA work and give a high level overview of the goals of the project, outline the forward work for PRisM, and discuss collaboration opportunities for the community who might explore if their domain knowledge and data could be represented, integrated, and quantified with these tools, whose outcomes are metrics useful for supporting operational mission planning and decision making.

Lauren McIntyre↗

NASA NTRS2011

Impact of Conifer Forest Litter on Microwave Emission at L-Band

This study reports on the utilization of microwave modeling, together with ground truth, and L-band (1.4-GHz) brightness temperatures to investigate the passive microwave characteristics of a conifer forest floor. The microwave data were acquired over a natural Virginia Pine forest in Maryland by a ground-based microwave active/passive instrument system in 2008/2009. Ground measurements of the tree biophysical parameters and forest floor characteristics were obtained during the field campaign. The test site consisted of medium-sized evergreen conifers with an average height of 12 m and average diameters at breast height of 12.6 cm. The site is a typical pine forest site in that there is a surface layer of loose debris/needles and an organic transition layer above the mineral soil. In an effort to characterize and model the impact of the surface litter layer, an experiment was conducted on a day with wet soil conditions, which involved removal of the surface litter layer from one half of the test site while keeping the other half undisturbed. The observations showed detectable decrease in emissivity for both polarizations after the surface litter layer was removed. A first-order radiative transfer model of the forest stands including the multilayer nature of the forest floor in conjunction with the ground truth data are used to compute forest emission. The model calculations reproduced the major features of the experimental data over the entire duration, which included the effects of surface litter and ground moisture content on overall emission. Both theory and experimental results confirm that the litter layer increases the observed canopy brightness temperature and obscure the soil emission.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

NASA NTRS2012

Blocking Losses With a Photon Counter

It was not known how to assess accurately losses in a communications link due to photodetector blocking, a phenomenon wherein a detector is rendered inactive for a short time after the detection of a photon. When used to detect a communications signal, blocking leads to losses relative to an ideal detector, which may be measured as a reduction in the communications rate for a given received signal power, or an increase in the signal power required to support the same communications rate. This work involved characterizing blocking losses for single detectors and arrays of detectors. Blocking may be mitigated by spreading the signal intensity over an array of detectors, reducing the count rate on any one detector. A simple approximation was made to the blocking loss as a function of the probability that a detector is unblocked at a given time, essentially treating the blocking probability as a scaling of the detection efficiency. An exact statistical characterization was derived for a single detector, and an approximation for multiple detectors. This allowed derivation of several accurate approximations to the loss. Methods were also derived to account for a rise time in recovery, and non-uniform illumination due to diffraction and atmospheric distortion of the phase front. It was assumed that the communications signal is intensity modulated and received by an array of photon-counting photodetectors. For the purpose of this analysis, it was assumed that the detectors are ideal, in that they produce a signal that allows one to reproduce the arrival times of electrons, produced either as photoelectrons or from dark noise, exactly. For single detectors, the performance of the maximum-likelihood (ML) receiver in blocking is illustrated, as well as a maximum-count (MC) receiver, that, when receiving a pulse-position-modulated (PPM) signal, selects the symbol corresponding to the slot with the largest electron count. Whereas the MC receiver saturates at high count rates, the ML receiver may not. The loss in capacity, symbol-error-rate (SER), and count-rate were numerically computed. It was shown that the capacity and symbol-error-rate losses track, whereas the count-rate loss does not generally reflect the SER or capacity loss, as the slot-statistics at the detector output are no longer Poisson. It is also shown that the MC receiver loss may be accurately predicted for dead times on the order of a slot.

Moision, Burce E.↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRS2026

Controlled Parametric Forcing During Directional Solidification of a Bulk Organic Alloy Under Microgravity

The response of dendritic microstructures to step-like pulling velocity conditions is investigated using microgravity directional solidification experiments conducted on DECLIC-DSI combined with phase-field simulations. Under a constant pulling velocity of 1.5 µm/s, the evolution toward steady-state growth is characterized in terms of primary spacing, dendrite drift, and tip dynamics. For the first time, side-view observations enabled direct measurement of tip radius and sidebranching frequency. When step-like oscillations of the pulling velocity are imposed, the dendritic array exhibits a strongly period-dependent response: short periods lead to rapid tip adaptation, whereas longer periods induce a phase lag between tip position and morphology, resulting in progressive tip flattening and, above a critical period, interface destabilization and dendrite splitting. Quantitative phase-field simulations, including a realistic thermal field and stochastic noise, reproduce the experimental observations and provide insight into the governing mechanisms, highlighting the role of characteristic relaxation times, sequence-dependent effects, and the irreversible reorganization of the microstructure following splitting.

Microgravity↗

NASA NTRS1989

Sequentially evaporated thin Y-Ba-Co-O superconducting films on microwave substrates

The development of high T sub c superconducting thin films on various microwave substrates is of major interest in space electronic systems. Thin films of YBa2Cu3O(7-Delta) were formed on SrTiO3, MgO, ZrO2 coated Al2O3, and LaAlO3 substrates by multi-layer sequential evaporation and subsequent annealing in oxygen. The technique allows controlled deposition of Cu, BaF2 and Y layers, as well as the ZrO buffer layers, to achieve reproducibility for microwave circuit fabrication. The three layer structure of Cu/BaF2/Y is repeated a minimum of four times. The films were annealed in an ambient of oxygen bubbled through water at temperatures between 850 C and 900 C followed by slow cooling (-2 C/minute) to 450 C, a low temperature anneal, and slow cooling to room temperature. Annealing times ranged from 15 minutes to 5 hrs. at high temperature and 0 to 6 hr. at 450 C. Silver contacts for four probe electrical measurements were formed by evaporation followed with an anneal at 500 C. The films were characterized by resistance-temperature measurements, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction, and scanning electron microscopy. Critical transition temperatures ranged from 30 K to 87 K as a function of the substrate, composition of the film, thicknesses of the layers, and annealing conditions. Microwave ring resonator circuits were also patterned on these MgO and LaAlO3 substrates.

Valco, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Multi-Scale Analysis of an Ilmenite Microcrater in Lunar Sample 71055

Micrometeorite impacts are a key space weathering process on the lunar surface, generating a variety of physical and chemical changes in the lunar regolith. Several experiments using nanosecond pulsed lasers to simulate micrometeorite impact have been published in the past two decades, providing a wealth of knowledge, including how minerals vary in their response to laser irradiation. Although these experiments have produced many features analogous to those observed in natural samples, none could be attributed to the passage of a shock wave, resulting instead from hot ablation. Recent femtosecond laser irradiation of olivine and enstatite have more accurately reproduced the shock textures observed in lunar samples, improving our ability to coordinate experimental and lunar sample data. Both pulsed laser experiments and studies of lunar impact craters have focused on silicates, as they comprise the bulk of the regolith. Ilmenite (FeTiO 3 ) is the most abundant opaque mineral in lunar rocks and an important sink of solar wind implanted helium. Ilmenite is known to vary in its response to radiation processing relative to the silicates, but its response to micrometeorite impact has not yet been studied in natural samples nor in the laboratory. In this investigation, we characterize an ilmenite microcrater using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) to learn how ilmenite responds to impact and if there are implications for helium cycling in the regolith.

B A Cymes↗

NASA NTRS2010

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons

Carbonaceous materials play an important role in space. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a ubiquitous component of the carbonaceous materials. PAHs are the best-known candidates to account for the IR emission bands. They are also thought to be among the carriers of the diffuse interstellar absorption bands (DIBs). PAH ionization states reflect the ionization balance of the medium while PAH size, composition, and structure reflect the energetic and chemical history of the medium. A major challenge is to reproduce in the laboratory the physical conditions that exist in the emission and absorption interstellar zones. The harsh physical conditions of the ISM -low temperature, collisionless, strong UV radiation fields- are simulated in the laboratory by associating a molecular beam with an ionizing discharge to generate a cold plasma expansion. PAH ions and radicals are formed from the neutral precursors in an isolated environment at low temperature and probed with high-sensitivity cavity ringdown spectroscopy in the NUV-NIR range. Carbon nanoparticles are also formed during the short residence time of the precursors in the plasma and are characterized with time-offlight mass spectrometry. These experiments provide unique information on the spectra of large carbonaceous molecules and ions in the gas phase that can now be directly compared to interstellar and circumstellar observations (IR emission bands, DIBs, extinction curve). These findings also hold great potential for understanding the formation process of interstellar carbonaceous grains. We will review recent progress in the experimental and theoretical studies of PAHs, compare the laboratory data with astronomical observations and discuss the global implications.

Salama, Farid↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding.

Schubert, S.↗