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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

A Predictive Prescription Framework for Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Boosting Ensemble Learning Algorithms

To take unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain load, most existing stochastic optimization (SO) frameworks adopt a generic representation of uncertainty. While load levels that materialize on a particular day are influenced by various covariates (such as the day of the week or temperature), SO frameworks typically disregard such side observations, wasting actionable information that could significantly enhance decision quality. Here, this article proposes a contextual SO (CSO) framework for UC under uncertain load, which can effectively exploit covariate observations in conjunction with a class of machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve the out-of-sample performance of UC decisions. It shows how three ML algorithms, adaptive boosting, gradient boosted trees, and extreme gradient boosting, can be used to this end, constituting the first application of these algorithms in any CSO framework. Using real-world data harvested from the New York ISO grid, we measure the out-of-sample performance of the framework in terms of total operation cost, shed load values, locational marginal prices, and total payments by the loads, against several benchmark methods proposed in the literature. The article has an online companion (Yurdakul et al.), wherein we present additional results and lay out further mathematical formulations used in this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Development of a high capacity bubble domain memory element and related epitaxial garnet materials for application in spacecraft data recorders. Item 1: Development of a high capacity memory element

Several versions of the 100K bit chip, which is configured as a single serial loop, were designed, fabricated and evaluated. Design and process modifications were introduced into each succeeding version to increase device performance and yield. At an intrinsic field rate of 150 KHz the final design operates from -10 C to +60 C with typical bias margins of 12 and 8 percent, respectively, for continuous operation. Asynchronous operation with first bit detection on start-up produces essentially the same margins over the temperature range. Cost projections made from fabrication yield runs on the 100K bit devices indicate that the memory element cost will be less than 10 millicents/bit in volume production.

Besser, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Model for refining operations

Program predicts production volumes of petroleum refinery products, with particular emphasis on aircraft-turbine fuel blends and their key properties. It calculates capital and operating costs for refinery and its margin of profitability. Program also includes provisions for processing of synthetic crude oils from oil shale and coal liquefaction processes and contains highly-detailed blending computations for alternative jet-fuel blends of varying endpoint specifications.

Dunbar, D. N.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Computationally Efficient Algorithm for Computing Convex Hull Prices

Electricity markets worldwide allow participants to bid non-convex production offers. While non-convex offers can more accurately reflect a resource's capabilities, they create challenges for market clearing processes. For example, system operators may execute side payments when a participant’s cost is not covered through energy sale settlements from locational marginal pricing schemes, or when a participant incurs lost opportunity costs to follow the dispatch signal. Convex hull pricing minimizes these and other types of side payments while providing uniform (i.e., locationally and temporally consistent) prices. However, computing convex hull prices involves solving either a large-scale linear program - which in turn requires explicit descriptions of market participants’ convex hulls -or the Lagrangian dual of the corresponding non-convex scheduling problem. Here, we propose a computationally feasible and industrially scalable Benders decomposition approach to computing convex hull prices at least an order of magnitude faster than the current state-of-the-art while leveraging recent advances in convex hull formulations for thermal generating units.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Role of Probabilistic Design Analysis Methods in Safety and Affordability

For the last several years, NASA and its contractors have been working together to build space launch systems to commercialize space. Developing commercial affordable and safe launch systems becomes very important and requires a paradigm shift. This paradigm shift enforces the need for an integrated systems engineering environment where cost, safety, reliability, and performance need to be considered to optimize the launch system design. In such an environment, rule based and deterministic engineering design practices alone may not be sufficient to optimize margins and fault tolerance to reduce cost. As a result, introduction of Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) methods to support the current deterministic engineering design practices becomes a necessity to reduce cost without compromising reliability and safety. This paper discusses the importance of PDA methods in NASA's new commercial environment, their applications, and the key role they can play in designing reliable, safe, and affordable launch systems. More specifically, this paper discusses: 1) The involvement of NASA in PDA 2) Why PDA is needed 3) A PDA model structure 4) A PDA example application 5) PDA link to safety and affordability.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Subsidence and eustasy at the continental margin of eastern North America

Biostratigraphic data from the COST B-2 well off New York and four deep commercial wells off Nova Scotia have been used to remove the effect of sediment loading at the Atlantic-type continental margin off the East Coast of North America. The resulting subsidence contains terms due to both 'tectonic' and 'eustatic' effects. By assuming the tectonic subsidence is thermal in origin these effects can be separated. The 'eustatic' effects have been isolated by least squares fitting an exponential curve to the subsidence data. The resulting sea-level curve shows a maximum rise in sea level during the Late Cretaceous era which probably does not exceed 150 m. The tectonic subsidence has been interpreted in terms of a simple thermal model for the cooling lithosphere. Based on this model the thermal thickness of the lithosphere and the total amount of crustal thinning are estimated. These estimates which are consistent with surface ship gravity and GEOS-3 altimeter measurements are used to define the structural elements which control the tectonic evolution of the margin.

Watts, A. B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Supporting Resource Adequacy via the ReEDS-India Model [Slides]

ReEDS-India is an open-access tool for mid- and long-term capacity expansion modeling that finds the mix of generation, transmission, and storage technologies that meet the anticipated requirements of the electric sector at least cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Remote Sensing-Based Estimation of Advanced Perennial Grass Biomass Yields for Bioenergy

A sustainable bioeconomy would require growing high-yielding bioenergy crops on marginal agricultural areas with minimal inputs. To determine the cost competitiveness and environmental sustainability of such production systems, reliably estimating biomass yield is critical. However, because marginal areas are often small and spread across the landscape, yield estimation using traditional approaches is costly and time-consuming. This paper demonstrates the (1) initial investigation of optical remote sensing for predicting perennial bioenergy grass yields at harvest using a linear regression model with the green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) derived from Sentinel-2 imagery and (2) evaluation of the model’s performance using data from five U.S. Midwest field sites. The linear regression model using midsummer GNDVI predicted yields at harvest with R2 as high as 0.879 and a mean absolute error and root mean squared error as low as 0.539 Mg/ha and 0.616 Mg/ha, respectively, except for the establishment year. Perennial bioenergy grass yields may be predicted 152 days before the harvest date on average, except for the establishment year. The green spectral band showed a greater contribution for predicting yields than the red band, which is indicative of increased chlorophyll content during the early growing season. Although additional testing is warranted, this study showed a great promise for a remote sensing approach for forecasting perennial bioenergy grass yields to support critical economic and logistical decisions of bioeconomy stakeholders.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities and challenges for the expansion of LFP battery supply chains

Global markets for energy storage are growing rapidly, with some applications transitioning from traditional LiNi x Mn y Co 1−x−y O 2 (NMC) toward LiFePO 4 (LFP) due to cost, safety, and performance advantages. Battery growth has seeded interest in critical material supplies such as high-purity lithium precursors. In contrast, challenges in securing high-purity iron and phosphorus, historically not considered critical materials, are often overlooked. Precursors must remain inexpensive to maintain LFP's current cost advantage, which leverages the low-cost (∼$\$100$ per t) FeSO 4 byproduct from titanium dioxide manufacturing and will not be available as LFP manufacturing expands. As an alternative, iron is mined primarily for steel manufacturing, for which the existing supply chain and beneficiation process is optimized. LFP batteries require small iron volumes compared to steel (0.11%), but profit margins associated with existing low-cost iron ores and high costs (∼$27 000 per t) associated with low volume high-purity iron oxides may limit interest in manufacturing small volumes of high-purity, specialized iron battery precursors. The complementary LFP precursor, phosphoric acid (H 3 PO 4 ), is primarily utilized in fertilizers. Of the current phosphate ore demand for fertilizers, 4–22.8% would be required to meet projected 2045 LFP H 3 PO 4 demand, suggesting significant supply chain planning is needed to achieve projected demand. If only higher-grade material is considered, demand jumps to 15–77% of current world production. While lithium precursor purity requirements have been evaluated (Li 2 CO 3 is commonly defined as ≥99.5%), “battery grade” iron and phosphorus precursors remain poorly defined, with no internationally accessible and widely adopted standard, further challenging expanding industry by creating manufacturing uncertainty and increasing potential costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2012

Affordability Approaches for Human Space Exploration

The design and development of historical NASA Programs (Apollo, Shuttle and International Space Station), have been based on pre-agreed missions which included specific pre-defined destinations (e.g., the Moon and low Earth orbit). Due to more constrained budget profiles, and the desire to have a more flexible architecture for Mission capture as it is affordable, NASA is working toward a set of Programs that are capability based, rather than mission and/or destination specific. This means designing for a performance capability that can be applied to a specific human exploration mission/destination later (sometime years later). This approach does support developing systems to flatter budgets over time, however, it also poses the challenge of how to accomplish this effectively while maintaining a trained workforce, extensive manufacturing, test and launch facilities, and ensuring mission success ranging from Low Earth Orbit to asteroid destinations. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in support of Exploration Systems Directorate (ESD) in Washington, DC has been developing approaches to track affordability across multiple Programs. The first step is to ensure a common definition of affordability: the discipline to bear cost in meeting a budget with margin over the life of the program. The second step is to infuse responsibility and accountability for affordability into all levels of the implementing organization since affordability is no single person s job; it is everyone s job. The third step is to use existing data to identify common affordability elements organized by configuration (vehicle/facility), cost, schedule, and risk. The fourth step is to analyze and trend this affordability data using an affordability dashboard to provide status, measures, and trends for ESD and Program level of affordability tracking. This paper will provide examples of how regular application of this approach supports affordable and therefore sustainable human space exploration architecture.

Holladay, Jon↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Considerations For Aerospace Vehicle Design: Systems, Structures And Materials

The speaker will provide an overview and some perspective on the systems engineering and conceptual design of launch vehicles and other aerospace systems. The strong interactions and relationships between systems requirements, cost, schedule, performance, risk, reliability and margins are explored in the context of vehicle design. Systems-level considerations for selection of structures and materials are also presented and discussed. Relevant examples from aerospace history are used to illustrate key concepts.

systems engineering↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Lynx: Digital Engineering Integration Hub

The construction of megaprojects has consistently demonstrated challenges for project managers in regard to meeting cost, schedule, and performance requirements. Megaproject construction challenges are common place within megaprojects with many active projects in the United States failing to meet cost and schedule efforts by significant margins. Currently, engineering teams operate in siloed tools and disparate teams where connections across design, procurement, and construction systems are translated manually or over brittle point-to-point integrations. The manual nature of data exchange increases the risk of silent errors in the reactor design, with each silent error cascading across the design. These cascading errors lead to uncontrollable risk during construction, resulting in significant delays and cost overruns. Deep Lynx allows for an integrated platform during design and operations of mega projects.

Darrington, JohnW↗

NASA NTRS1988

Active control law synthesis for flexible aircraft

An application of an active control law synthesis procedure is presented, to meet multiple design requirements for a flexible aircraft modeled by a large order state space system. In this synthesis procedure, a linear quadratic Gaussian type cost function is minimized by updating the free parameters of the control law, while satisfying a set of constraints on the design loads, responses and stability margins. Analytical expressions for gradients of the cost function and the constraints, with respect to the control law design variables are used to facilitate rapid numerical convergence. These gradients can also be used for sensitivity study. A stable classical control law as well as an estimator-based full or reduced order control law can be modified, in order to meet individual root-mean-square response limitations as well as minimum singular value restrictions. Both analog and digital control laws can be optimized. Low order, robust control laws were synthesized for flutter suppression of a flexible aircraft.

Mukhopadhyay, V.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Experimental investigation of a solid rocket combustion simulator

The response of solid rocket motor materials to high-temperature corrosive gases is usually accomplished by testing the materials in a subscale solid rocket motor. While this imposes the proper thermal and chemical environment, a solid rocket motor does not provide practical features that would enhance systematic evaluations such as: the ability to throttle for margin testing, on/off capability, low test cost, and a low-hazards test article. Solid Rocket Combustion Simulators (SRCS) are being evaluated by NASA to test solid rocket nozzle materials and incorporate these essential practical features into the testing of rocket materials. The SRCS is designed to generate the thermochemical environment of a solid rocket. It uses hybrid rocket motor technology in which gaseous oxygen (Gox) is injected into a chamber containing a solid fuel grain. Specific chemicals are injected in the aft mixing chamber so that the gases entering the test section match the temperature and a non-dimensional erosion factor B' to insure similarity with a solid motor. Because the oxygen flow can be controlled, this approach allows margin testing, the ability to throttle, and an on/off capability. The fuel grains are inert which makes the test article very safe to handle. The objective of this work was to establish the baseline operating characteristics of a Labscale Solid Rocket Combustion Simulator (LSRCS). This included establishing the baseline burning rates of plexiglass fuels and the evaluation of a combustion instability for hydroxy-terminated polybutadyene (HTPB) propellants. The scope of the project included: (1) activation of MSFC Labscale Hybrid Combustion Simulator; (2) testing of plexiglass fuel at Gox ranges from 0.025 to 0.200 lb/s; (3) burning HTPB fuels at a Gox rate of 0.200 lb/s using four different mixing chamber configurations; and (4) evaluating the fuel regression and chamber pressure responses of each firing.

Frederick, Robert A., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design and Operability of a Pressurized Oxy Combustion System

Fossil fuel powers more than two-thirds of the world’s electricity, a significant share of which is derived from coal power plants. Despite coal being an abundant and energy-rich fuel, the major halt to its progress is greenhouse gas emissions. Pressurized oxy-combustion cycles can achieve theoretically high thermal efficiencies along with a 90% carbon capture rate. Additionally, the high energy density allows smaller turbomachinery and save capital cost. Thus, the primary objective of this dissertation is to present the design and operability of a pressurized oxy-combustor system. The initial part of the dissertation investigates different thermodynamic cycles and presents a model that can be adapted for existing power plants. The thermodynamic model will be used in the later part to design the proposed combustor. The two cycles analyzed are ENEL and TIPS. This study focuses on qualitative analyses of the cycles using a commercially available software called Aspen Plus®. A detailed benchmark study has been performed to validate the modeling process. ENEL and TIPS cycles are designed in the software, adopting the same principles. Recirculation ratio and pressures are varied to find the efficiency range of the cycles. Power calculations are done to find overall and net efficiency for a fixed recirculation ratio. The efficiencies of the cycles are compared to select an optimum cycle. A recirculation ratio of 50% is selected for implementation. The comparison shows that ENEL is marginally efficient over TIPS, at the cost of a pressure difference of about 70bars. Technology Readiness Level analysis is performed to present the availability of the specialized equipment for the cycles. From the TRL analysis, it is seen that the cost and availability of high viii pressure equipment surmount the edge of TIPS over ENEL. Thus, ENEL is chosen as the better cycle for investigating a scaled experiment considering efficiency and viability. The later part of the dissertation focuses on developing the combustor's design for a pressurized oxy-combustion cycle. The proposed combustor is a powerhead-mounted design aimed to produce 1MW of thermal outputThe different aspects of the design of a down-fired pressurized swirl combustor are presented in this dissertation.

Chowdhury, Mehrin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Electric Propulsion System Selection Process for Interplanetary Missions

The disparate design problems of selecting an electric propulsion system, launch vehicle, and flight time all have a significant impact on the cost and robustness of a mission. The effects of these system choices combine into a single optimization of the total mission cost, where the design constraint is a required spacecraft neutral (non-electric propulsion) mass. Cost-optimal systems are designed for a range of mass margins to examine how the optimal design varies with mass growth. The resulting cost-optimal designs are compared with results generated via mass optimization methods. Additional optimizations with continuous system parameters address the impact on mission cost due to discrete sets of launch vehicle, power, and specific impulse. The examined mission set comprises a near-Earth asteroid sample return, multiple main belt asteroid rendezvous, comet rendezvous, comet sample return, and a mission to Saturn.

Landau, Damon↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗