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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

First Constraints on the Epoch of Reionization Using the Non-Gaussianity of the Kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich Effect from the South Pole Telescope and Herschel-SPIRE Observations

We report results from an analysis aimed at detecting the trispectrum of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect by combining data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Herschel-SPIRE experiments over a 100 deg 2 field. The SPT observations combine data from the previous and current surveys, namely SPTpol and SPT-3G, to achieve depths of 4.5, 3, and 16 μ K - arcmin in bands centered at 95, 150, and 220 GHz. For SPIRE, we include data from the 600 and 857 GHz bands. We reconstruct the velocity-induced large-scale correlation of the small-scale kSZ signal with a quadratic estimator that uses two cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature maps, constructed by optimally combining data from all the frequency bands. We reject the null hypothesis of a zero trispectrum at 10.3 σ level. However, the measured trispectrum contains contributions from both the kSZ and other undesired components, such as CMB lensing and astrophysical foregrounds, with kSZ being sub-dominant. We use the agora simulations to estimate the expected signal from CMB lensing and astrophysical foregrounds. After accounting for the contributions from CMB lensing and foreground signals, we do not detect an excess kSZ-only trispectrum and use this nondetection to set constraints on reionization. By applying a prior based on observations of the Gunn-Peterson trough, we obtain an upper limit on the duration of reionization of Δ z re , 50 < 4.5 (95% confidence level). We find these constraints are fairly robust to foregrounds assumptions. This trispectrum measurement is independent of, but consistent with, Planck’s optical depth measurement. This result is the first constraint on the epoch of reionization using the non-Gaussian nature of the kSZ signal.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on Local Primordial Non-Gaussianity with 3D Velocity Reconstruction from the Kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich Effect

The cosmic velocity field is an unbiased probe of the total matter distribution but is challenging to measure directly at intermediate and high redshifts. The large-scale velocity field imprints a signal in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) through the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect. We perform the first 3D reconstruction of the large-scale velocity field from the kSZ effect by applying a quadratic estimator to CMB temperature maps and the 3D positions of galaxies. We do so by combining CMB data from the fifth data release of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (in combination with Planck) and a spectroscopic galaxy sample from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We then measure the galaxy-velocity cross-power spectrum and detect the presence of the kSZ signal at a signal-to-noise ratio of 7.2⁢𝜎. Using this galaxy-velocity cross-correlation alone, we constrain the amplitude of local primordial non-Gaussianity finding 𝑓 NL =−9⁢0$^{+210}_{−350}$. In conclusion, this pathfinder measurement sets the stage for joint galaxy-CMB kSZ constraints to significantly enhance the 𝑓 NL information obtained from galaxy surveys through sample variance cancellation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Average Rényi entanglement entropy in Gaussian boson sampling

Recently, many experiments have been conducted with the goal of demonstrating a quantum advantage over classical computation. One popular framework for these experiments is Gaussian boson sampling, where quadratic photonic input states are interfered via a linear optical unitary and subsequently measured in the Fock basis. In this paper, we study the modal entanglement of the output states in this framework just before the measurement stage. Specifically, we compute Page curves as measured by various Rényi- α entropies, where the Page curve describes the entanglement between two partitioned groups of output modes averaged over all linear optical unitaries. We derive these formulas for α = 1 (i.e., the von Neumann entropy) and, more generally, for all positive integer α , in the asymptotic limit of infinite number of modes and for input states that are composed of single-mode-squeezed-vacuum state with equal squeezing strength. We then analyze the limiting behaviors when the squeezing is small and large. Having determined the averages, we then explicitly calculate the Rényi- α variance for integers α > 1 and are able to show that these entropies are weakly typical. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Youm, Jason (ORCID:0009000057597782)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement Structure of Non-Gaussian States and How to Measure It

Rapidly growing capabilities of quantum simulators to probe quantum many-body phenomena require new methods to characterize increasingly complex states. Here, we present a protocol that constrains quantum states using experimentally measured correlation functions. This method enables measurement of a quantum state’s entanglement structure, opening a new route to study entanglement-related phenomena. Our approach extends Gaussian state parameterizations by systematically incorporating higher-order correlations. We show the protocol’s usefulness in conjunction with current and forthcoming experimental capabilities, focusing on weakly interacting fermions as a proof of concept. Here, the lowest nontrivial expansion quantitatively predicts early time thermalization dynamics, including signaling the onset of quantum chaos indicated by the entanglement Hamiltonian.

Fermi gases↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlation-aware binning for small-angle neutron scattering via Gaussian-process inference

Binning in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) is typically performed empirically, with fixed parameters chosen for convenience rather than statistical optimality. Such practices often fail to balance statistical precision and spatial resolution, leading to inconsistencies across instruments and datasets. Here we establish a correlation-aware framework that determines the optimal bin width from first principles by extending the classical Freedman–Diaconis (FD) rule to account for inter-bin correlations with a Gaussian process. In this formulation, the scattering intensity is treated as a smooth stochastic field whose statistical coherence is described by a covariance matrix. Analytical expressions of errors derived from this model yield closed-form criteria that separate the total deviation into contributions from counting noise, aliasing distortion and curvature-dependent correlation effects. Expressed in reduced variables, the resulting dimensionless error surface reveals a continuous transition from the uncorrelated FD regime to the correlation-dominated limit, providing a unified description of noise suppression and resolution control. Because the formulation depends only on the profile characteristics of scattering intensity I(Q), specifically its average intensity and first- and second-order derivatives, it applies generally to any SANS measurement regardless of sample, instrument or geometry. Experimental validation using small- and ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data confirms the predicted scaling behavior, demonstrating that correlation-aware inference systematically reduces mean-squared error and enables information-efficient reproducible data reduction across materials and instruments.

Tung, Chi-Huan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000221972074)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient Probabilistic Visualization of Local Divergence of 2D Vector Fields with Independent Gaussian Uncertainty

This work focuses on visualizing uncertainty of local divergence of two-dimensional vector fields. Divergence is one of the fundamental attributes of fluid flows, as it can help domain scientists analyze potential positions of sources (positive divergence) and sinks (negative divergence) in the flow. However, uncertainty inherent in vector field data can lead to erroneous divergence computations, adversely impacting downstream analysis. While Monte Carlo (MC) sampling is a classical approach for estimating divergence uncertainty, it suffers from slow convergence and poor scalability with increasing data size and sample counts. Thus, we present a two-fold contribution that tackles the challenges of slow convergence and limited scalability of the MC approach. (1) We derive a closed-form approach for highly efficient and accurate uncertainty visualization of local divergence, assuming independently Gaussian-distributed vector uncertainties. (2) We further integrate our approach into Viskores, a platform-portable parallel library, to accelerate uncertainty visualization. In our results, we demonstrate significantly enhanced efficiency and accuracy of our serial analytical (speed-up up to 1946×) and parallel Viskores (speed-up up to 19698×) algorithms over the classical serial MC approach. We also demonstrate qualitative improvements of our probabilistic divergence visualizations over traditional mean-field visualization, which disregards uncertainty. We validate the accuracy and efficiency of our methods on wind forecast and ocean simulation datasets.

Ouermi, Timbwaoga [University of Utah]↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-throughput homogenization of a quasi-Gaussian ultrafast laser beam using a combined refractive beam shaper and spatial light modulator

Efficiently shaping femtosecond, transverse Gaussian laser beams to flat-top beams with flat wavefronts is critical for large-scale material processing and manufacturing. Existing beam shaping devices fall short either in final beam homogeneity or efficiency. Here, we present an approach that uses refractive optics to perform the majority of the beam shaping and then uses a fine-tune device (spatial light modulator) to refine the intensity profile. For the beam that we selected, circularly asymmetric with intensity fluctuations, our method achieved a uniformity of 0.055 within 90% of the beam area at 92% efficiency. The optimization involved an iterative beam shaping process that converged to optimum within 10 iterations.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

3D Gaussian Splatting for Volume Compression

This codebase uses machine learning to train a collection of 3D Gaussian distributions to approximate scientific volume data. Because this collection uses less memory than the original dataset, it can be used as a compressed model of the original data for applications such as visualization.

Dyken, Landon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging Gaussian Mixture Models for Detecting Anomalies in Time-Series Data

Test systems must be capable of classifying measured data as expected or anomalous in real time. Anomalous results may portend system failure, and, if undetected, may result in damage to the unit, test equipment, or potential harm to personnel. This report investigates the use of Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) as a clustering tool in classifying time-series data.

Wilke, Rudeger H.T. [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search: an efficient and versatile quantum phase estimation method

Quantum phase estimation is one of the most powerful quantum primitives. This work proposes a new approach for the problem of multiple eigenvalue estimation: Quantum Multiple Eigenvalue Gaussian filtered Search (QMEGS). QMEGS leverages the Hadamard test circuit structure and only requires simple classical postprocessing. QMEGS is the first algorithm to simultaneously satisfy the following two properties: (1) It can achieve the Heisenberg-limited scaling without relying on any spectral gap assumption. (2) With a positive energy gap and additional assumptions on the initial state, QMEGS can estimate all dominant eigenvalues to ϵ accuracy utilizing a significantly reduced circuit depth compared to the standard quantum phase estimation algorithm. In the most favorable scenario, the maximal runtime can be reduced to as low as log(1/ϵ). This implies that QMEGS serves as an efficient and versatile approach, achieving the best-known results for both gapped and gapless systems. Numerical results validate the efficiency of our proposed algorithm in various regimes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Gaussian Process Approach to Shear Mapping with MuyGPs

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate shear maps from which we can infer the matter distribution in the universe. Current methods (e.g., Kaiser–Squires inversion) for generating these maps, however, are tricky to implement and can introduce bias. Recent alternatives construct a spatial process prior for the lensing potential, which allows for inference of the convergence and shear parameters given lensing shear measurements. Realizing these spatial processes, however, scales cubically in the number of observations—an unacceptable expense as near-term surveys expect billions of correlated measurements. Therefore, we present a linearly scaling shear map construction alternative using a scalable Gaussian process prior called MuyGPs. MuyGPs avoids cubic scaling by conditioning interpolation on only nearest neighbors and fits hyperparameters using batched leave-one-out cross-validation. This work is the first step toward a full, scalable mass mapping method. We work in a simplified regime where we validate our method by interpolating and analyzing maps given noisy point-estimate data from all three shear fields, taken from a suite of N -body ray-tracing simulations. We also show that we can perform these operations at the scale of billions of galaxies on high-performance computing platforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2024

A robust approach to Gaussian process implementation

Abstract. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible modeling technique used to predict outputs and to capture uncertainty in the predictions. However, the GP regression process becomes computationally intensive when the training spatial dataset has a large number of observations. To address this challenge, we introduce a scalable GP algorithm, termed MuyGPs, which incorporates nearest-neighbor and leave-one-out cross-validation during training. This approach enables the evaluation of large spatial datasets with state-of-the-art accuracy and speed in certain spatial problems. Despite these advantages, conventional quadratic loss functions used in the MuyGPs optimization, such as root mean squared error (RMSE), are highly influenced by outliers. We explore the behavior of MuyGPs in cases involving outlying observations and, subsequently, develop a robust approach to handle and mitigate their impact. Specifically, we introduce a novel leave-one-out loss function based on the pseudo-Huber function (LOOPH) that effectively accounts for outliers in large spatial datasets within the MuyGPs framework. Our simulation study shows that the LOOPH loss method maintains accuracy despite outlying observations, establishing MuyGPs as a powerful tool for mitigating unusual observation impacts in the large data regime. In the analysis of US ozone data, MuyGPs provides accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification, demonstrating its utility in managing data anomalies. Through these efforts, we advance the understanding of GP regression in spatial contexts.

Mukangango, Juliette↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗