Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “demand modelling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

A Finite Difference informed Random Walk solver for simulating radiation defect evolution in polycrystalline structures with strongly inhomogeneous diffusivity

Diffusivity of species and defects on grain boundaries is usually several orders of magnitude larger than that inside grains. Such strongly inhomogeneous diffusivity requires prohibitively high computational demands for modeling microstructural evolution. Here, this paper presents a highly-efficient numerical solver, combining the Finite Difference method and Random Walk model, designed for accurately modeling strongly inhomogeneous diffusion within polycrystalline structures. The proposed solver, termed Finite Difference informed Random Walk (FDiRW), integrates a customized Finite Difference (cFD) scheme tailored for fast diffusion along thin grain boundaries represented by a single-layer of nodes. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the FDiRW solver achieves an impressive efficiency gain of 1560x compared to traditional Finite Difference methods while maintaining accuracy, making it feasible for personal computer machines to handle diffusional systems with strongly inhomogeneous diffusivity across static polycrystalline microstructures. The model has been successfully applied to simulate radiation defect evolution, showcasing its scalability to engineering scales in both length and time dimensions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparing Delay-, Distance-, and Cordon-Based Congestion Pricing Strategies Via Large-Scale Simulation

This study compares the impacts of delay-, distance-, and cordon-based congestion pricing strategies for Austin, Texas, using the POLARIS agent-based activity-based travel demand simulation model. This approach enables agent-level heterogeneity and realistic choice options (including destination, mode, and activity scheduling) for dynamic traffic assignment and congestion feedbacks across a major metro region, which are features lacking in past work. To ensure comparability, distance-based tolls were set to generate the same revenue as delay-based tolling of $3.5 M/day, averaging $1.17/resident/day or $0.42/vehicle-trip. Delay-based pricing delivers 44% lower network delay and 13% lower VHT compared to the no-toll baseline, levels unmatched by other pricing strategies. At the height of the AM peak, drivers pay up to $0.13/mile on average, though most links in the network remain untolled. Distance-based pricing is the most effective at reducing VMT (by 4%), but VHT reductions (of 6%) primarily stem from drivers selecting closer destinations, achieving only one-fourth the delay reduction of delay-based pricing. Across various implementations of delay- and distance-based pricing, the results suggest that spatial variations of tolls are far more important than temporal variations. Cordon tolls produce minimal impacts at the network-wide level, but offer substantial delay reductions inside the cordon. Other major findings include: 1) delay-based pricing increases trip-making during the PM peak period due to backward shifts in discretionary-activity start times by higher-income residents; and 2) tolls’ spatial impacts, including changes in network flows and tolls paid by residents, vary substantially between delay- and distance-based pricing strategies.

Agent-based modeling↗

Machine learning defect properties in Cd-based chalcogenides

Impurity energy levels in the band gap can have serious consequences for a semiconductor's performance as a photovoltaic absorber. Data-driven approaches can help accelerate the prediction of point defect properties in common semiconductors, and thus lead to the identification of potential deep lying impurity states. In this work, we use density functional theory (DFT) to compute defect formation energies and charge transition levels of hundreds of impurities in CdX chalcogenide compounds, where X = Te, Se or S. We apply machine learning techniques on the DFT data and develop on-demand predictive models for the formation energy and relevant transition levels of any impurity atom in any site. The trained ML models are general and accurate enough to predict the properties of any possible point defects in any Cd-based chalcogenide, as we prove by testing on a few selected defects in mixed chalcogen compounds CdTe 0.5 Se 0.5 and CdSe 0.5 S 0.5 . The ML framework used in this work can be extended to any class of semiconductors.

density functional theory↗

2007 Chicago Regional Household Travel Inventory

To provide data for developing and refining travel demand forecast models, the 2007 Regional Household Travel Inventory studied the demographic and travel behavior characteristics of residents in the greater Chicago area. It included households in eight counties in Illinois and three in Indiana. The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning conducted the study in coordination with the Illinois Department of Transportation, the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission, and the Indiana Department of Transportation. Travel and activity information for all household members (regardless of age) was collected during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. It relied on the willingness of households to provide detailed information about their members and vehicles, and to record all travel and associated activity during the collection period. This study also featured a subsample of households collecting data via in-vehicle and wearable global positioning system devices.

1Hz data↗

2008 NIRPC Household Travel Inventory

The Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC) Household Travel Inventory, also sponsored by the Indiana Department of Transportation, is a comprehensive study of the demographic and travel of residents of Lake, Porter, and La Porte counties in northwest Indiana. The primary objective of the study was to provide data for the continued development and refinement of the Indiana regional travel demand forecast models. 3,838 households from northwest Indiana participated in the survey, which entailed the collection of activity and travel information for all household members regardless of age during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. NIRPC travel survey data provided the information required on base-year daily trips made by study area residents to the Chicago CBD. This travel market is treated separately because of the importance of transit for its travelers.

1Hz data↗

1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey

The 1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey was conducted between July and November. NuStats Research and Consulting conducted the survey on behalf of the Puget Sound Regional Council. The purpose of the study was to provide data to continue developing and refining the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the Puget Sound region. The study area consists of King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. The resultant dataset will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. The study had household members 16 years old or older keep track of travel for a 48-hour period. A total of 9,028 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 6,000 households (66.5%) completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from all household members regardless of age. An “attitude” survey about transportation and land use issues was also mailed to household members 16 years old or older.

1Hz data↗

1994 Household Travel Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (COG/TPB) periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1994 Household Travel Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. In two waves during the spring and fall of 1994, consultants for COG/TPB conducted a survey of daily travel by persons living in area households. The survey file contains travel information associated with 4,863 households residing in 13 jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C., region (approximately a 1-in-300 sample). The survey file contains 39,800 internal trip records with respect to the expanded cordon.

1Hz data↗

1998/99 Thurston County Household Travel Study

The survey was conducted under the auspices of the Thurston Regional Planning Council, and it was funded through a state grant awarded to Intercity Transit of Olympia, Washington. Data collection was from September 1998 through March 1999. The purpose of the study was to provide data for the continuing development and refinement of the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the southern Puget Sound region of Washington. The resultant data set will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. Participating households were assigned specific “travel days” to record their travel over a 48-hour period. A total of 2,465 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 1,537 households completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from 3,653 household members regardless of age. Households member made 25,278 total trips during their 48-hour diary period.

1Hz data↗

1968 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1968 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 26,000 households residing in six jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-20 sample).

1Hz data↗

1987/88 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1987/88 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 8,000 households residing in eight jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-166 sample).

1Hz data↗

Valuation and cost reduction of behind-the-meter hydrogen production in Hawaii

A 250kW hydrogen electrolysis facility was recently installed at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority's (NELHA's) campus. This facility that will begin operation in 2020 to produce hydrogen for fuel cell buses on the island to demonstrate of the application of hydrogen to decarbonize transportation. Given the size of the electrolysis station, it has the potential to significantly increase electricity costs for the campus, which is subject to energy and peak demand charges from the local utility. In this paper, we analyze the cost of hydrogen production at NELHA given the rate structure options available from the utility. Production costs are estimated using optimal versus constant scheduling of the facility to meet the buses’ demand. A model of the electrolysis station is used to capture changes in production efficiency over the power range in the optimization routine. The effects of combining the station and campus load versus standalone operation and increasing solar generation are also explored. The analyses surrounding this scenario show the importance of multiple factors on the potential profitability of hydrogen production in behind-the-meter applications and show trends that could have implications for other similar installations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Pulse Strengthened and Laser Edge Sealed Vacuum Insulation Glazing

A scalable, low-cost processing strategy for glass strengthening and sealing is proposed to improve the thermal performance of insulating glass units and develop innovative window technologies. In this project, a combination of large area photonic processing, additive manufacturing, and laser encapsulation techniques is reported to realize a vacuum glazing technology to meet the cost, performance, reliability, and throughput demands. A modeling framework for evaluating the mechanical and thermal response was established to verify the structural deformation and thermal conductance. Micro-size glass frits in printing ink and a continuous-wave laser curing were employed to allow the formation of a hermetic bonding layer and led to improvement of glass edge sealing. Various sealing parameters, including laser traveling speed, spot diameter, and laser power were optimized. The water seepage and mechanical strength of the resulting glass-to-glass bonding were examined as well. These results showcase the development of a practical vacuum insulating glazing with several unique features through a combination of photonic processing, laser encapsulation, and additive manufacturing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Catalytically Active Site Mapping Realized through Energy Transfer Modeling

Abstract The demands of a sustainable chemical industry are a driving force for the development of heterogeneous catalytic platforms exhibiting facile catalyst recovery, recycling, and resilience to diverse reaction conditions. Homogeneous‐to‐heterogeneous catalyst transitions can be realized through the integration of efficient homogeneous catalysts within porous matrices. Herein, we offer a versatile approach to understanding how guest distribution and evolution impact the catalytic performance of heterogeneous host–guest catalytic platforms by implementing the resonance energy transfer (RET) concept using fluorescent model systems mimicking the steric constraints of targeted catalysts. Using the RET‐based methodology, we mapped condition‐dependent guest (re)distribution within a porous support on the example of modular matrices such as metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Furthermore, we correlate RET results performed on the model systems with the catalytic performance of two MOF‐encapsulated catalysts used to promote CO 2 hydrogenation and ring‐closing metathesis. Guests are incorporated using aperture‐opening encapsulation, and catalyst redistribution is not observed under practical reaction conditions, showcasing a pathway to advance catalyst recyclability in the case of host–guest platforms. These studies represent the first generalizable approach for mapping the guest distribution in heterogeneous host–guest catalytic systems, providing a foundation for predicting and tailoring the performance of catalysts integrated into various porous supports.

Thompson, William J.↗

Catalytically Active Site Mapping Realized through Energy Transfer Modeling

Abstract The demands of a sustainable chemical industry are a driving force for the development of heterogeneous catalytic platforms exhibiting facile catalyst recovery, recycling, and resilience to diverse reaction conditions. Homogeneous‐to‐heterogeneous catalyst transitions can be realized through the integration of efficient homogeneous catalysts within porous matrices. Herein, we offer a versatile approach to understanding how guest distribution and evolution impact the catalytic performance of heterogeneous host–guest catalytic platforms by implementing the resonance energy transfer (RET) concept using fluorescent model systems mimicking the steric constraints of targeted catalysts. Using the RET‐based methodology, we mapped condition‐dependent guest (re)distribution within a porous support on the example of modular matrices such as metal–organic frameworks (MOFs). Furthermore, we correlate RET results performed on the model systems with the catalytic performance of two MOF‐encapsulated catalysts used to promote CO 2 hydrogenation and ring‐closing metathesis. Guests are incorporated using aperture‐opening encapsulation, and catalyst redistribution is not observed under practical reaction conditions, showcasing a pathway to advance catalyst recyclability in the case of host–guest platforms. These studies represent the first generalizable approach for mapping the guest distribution in heterogeneous host–guest catalytic systems, providing a foundation for predicting and tailoring the performance of catalysts integrated into various porous supports.

Thompson, William J.↗

A robust offering strategy for wind producers considering uncertainties of demand response and wind power

This paper proposes a risk-constrained decision-making approach for a wind power producer participating in the day-ahead market. In the developed model, a flexible demand response trading scheme between the wind power producer and different customers is employed. Through the proposed demand response mechanism, the wind power producer is able to trade demand response resource internally with different customers, and then trade energy externally with the market to increase the expected profit and the wind energy utilization. The uncertainties in the wind power and demand response are modeled by using the information gap decision theory approach from risk averse (robust) and risk-seeking (opportunistic) perspectives. The objective of the robust model is to maximize the robust level while satisfying the desired profit, whereas the opportunistic model aims to evaluate the possibility of achieving windfall profits with favorable uncertainties. The overall offering strategy problem is modeled as a bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming, which is linearized by proper techniques and solved efficiently by using the normal boundary intersection technique. In this work, simulation results show that utilizing demand response resource to mitigate wind power deviations can increase a wind power producer's profit and reduce potential risks. In addition, the results demonstrate that the proposed bi-objective optimization approach enables the wind power producer to select appropriate offering decisions with respect to uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗