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Case Study for Enhanced Accident Tolerance Design Changes

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant systems, structures, and components (SSCs) needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, reliability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) micro-mechanical simulations of concrete specimens characterized by micro-X-ray fluorescence

Concrete in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) can be exposed to a wide range of degradation phenomena. In the past years, the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has investigated Radiation-Induced Volumetric Expansion (RIVE) as a potential degradation mechanism for concrete biological shields [Graves et al., 2014, Rosseel et al., 2016]. RIVE causes swelling and micro-mechanical damage in concrete due to the amorphization of mineral phases contained in the aggregates under neutron irradiation [Hilsdorf et al., 1978, Rosseel et al., 2016]. For long-term operations, it is critical to assess the durability of concrete after 60 or 80 years of exposure to NPP operating conditions against this phenomenon. RIVE is dependent on the composition of the aggregates used in concrete. Quartz-bearing aggregates are more sensitive to RIVE than calcite-bearing aggregates, for example. However, the aggregate composition of a specific plant is generally not explicitly given in the concrete formulation, which makes it nearly impossible to predict the resistance of that concrete to RIVE. Additional characterization is needed to identify the radiation-sensitive mineral phases contained in the aggregates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Executive Summary: Prototype Design, Analysis, and Results for a Liquid Radiological Waste Control Room

Under the United States Department of Energy Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is collaborating with Palo Verde Generating Station (PVGS) to support human factors engineering efforts in the modernization of PVNGS’ radiological waste system (LRS) control room. The studies proposed and/or conducted by INL are designed to address the inconsistency between different human factors standards, guidance, and conventions. Guidance such as NUREG-0700 leave much of the information open to interpretation. INL will identify whether maintaining a design that is consistent with population stereotypes actually enhances performance, or whether there are alternative designs that yield performance that is better than the designs that maintain those stereotypes. The overall design concept for the LRS workstation includes system overview displays for the Evaporator system and the Boric Acid Concentrator system. A third display contains overview information for the rest of the LRS. The forth display contains alarm information. Each display will be presented on one of four monitors in the control room. The system overview displays contain embedded controls for valves and pumps, mini-trends, and micro-trends. The mini-trends present data for the controllers and contain alarm set point information as well as trending. All other relevant system parameters are shown on micro-trends. The semi-dull screen approach utilized present dynamic data in green, active components are white (gray when closed or off). The product stream flow paths are indicated by different colors. Alarm states are presented in saturated red and selected components are indicated by bright blue. In addition to the micro task study described below, the INL researchers also conducted an evaluation of the semi-dull screen approach as well as an ergonomic evaluation of the suggested upgrades in the local control room. A detailed report of all INL’s activities related to the modernization of the LRS conducted between October 2016 and September 2017 are found in these two reports; • INL-EXT-17-43226, Prototype Design, Analysis, and Results for a Liquid Radiological Waste Control Room, and • INL-EXT-17-43250, Evaluation of Control Room Interface Designs to Support Modernization in Nuclear Power Plants.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

R&D Roadmap for Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, Metrics, Scenarios, Risk Analysis, and Modeling and Simulation

The nuclear industry and the U.S. Department of Energy are jointly developing accident tolerant fuel (ATF) which has the potential to greatly improve the safety and economic performance of the current fleet of NPPs. The combination of ATF with the optimal use of FLEX equipment (deployed as an industry response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident in 2012), enhancements on plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented cooling systems or new passive cooling systems, and improvements in fuel cycle efficiency, have the potential to render the NPPs more efficient and resilient to events (both internally and externally initiated) that have the potential to challenge the integrity of the fuel or plant containment. In this report, combinations of these plant improvements are called Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems. In order to accelerate the development and deployment of the components that comprise Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems, a well-integrated toolkit that is fuel/clad-, fuel cycle-, systems-, and scenario-centric is required to provide a ready platform for the analysis of the advanced ATF fuel and cladding materials that are being developed, as well as plant systems modifications to achieve enhanced resiliency. Since the deployment of these enhancements will comprise a risk/benefit tradeoff of their impacts on plant safety and economics, the envisioned toolkit will need to be capable to characterizing the multidimensional aspects associated with these evaluations and provide decision-makers with information that can optimize the technological, economic, and safety benefits that are to be obtained. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway of the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program initiated several research tasks to develop analytical capabilities to support the industry in the transition to the ATF and Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems. The general idea behind the initiative is the development of an integrated evaluation approach which combines the plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models with Multi-Physics Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (MP-BEPU) analyses in a seamless fashion. The integrated evaluation framework aims at enabling plant system configuration variations to be studied with speed and precision, including detailed risk and benefit assessments of introducing ATF and Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems into current LWR plants to achieve both safety and operational performance enhancements. The focus of this report is to present an integrated research and development (R&D) roadmap to identify and perform high value evaluations of proposed ATF and Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems concepts to identify both the technical (e.g. benefits to risk, safety, and operational margins) and the economic (i.e. business and cost) elements associated with industry adoption of the technology. The integrated evaluation approach will be developed to support the development, testing, qualification, licensing, and deployment of ATF and Enhanced Resilient Plant Systems technology that is capable of achieving substantial safety and economic improvements as well as timely widespread adoption by the US nuclear industry.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Expected condition of concrete exposed to radiation at age 80 years of reactor operation

This report is intended to provide access to information generated by LPI, Inc. on behalf of the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy, Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in 2013. Specifically, estimates of the fast neutron fluence at 80 years of operation on the outer surface of the concrete biological shield (CBS) of US Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) operating in 2013 and an estimate of the effects of gamma radiation on the temperature on the biological shield were determined.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Connecting LWRS Human Factor Engineering R&D to NUREG-0711 Elements and Modification Activities in Nuclear Power Plants

This Report documents the connection between DOE INL LWRS HFE R&D activities and the technical content of NUREG-0711 Results Summary Reports. Since the current and most recent LWRS HFE activities are associated with modernization and modification of nuclear power electric generating stations, this Report will limit its scope to these topics. NUREG-0711 Results Summary Reports content is shared with US nuclear generating stations by INL HFE staff through HFE Technical Reports to identify potential HEDs with planned upgrades. With such information, utilities have confidence that their upgraded HMIs, operating procedures, conduct of operations, and training with the upgraded systems will ensure their continued safe control of the nuclear plant. The utilities use the HFE Technical Reports as basis documents in their licensing processes used to modify the plant (LAR or 10CFR50.59). For plant modifications, LWRS HFE R&D activities commence as early as an agreement is reached between the utility and the LWRS Program staff. The multiple interfaces usually result in the two organizations meeting at INL, at the utility’s site, and at the vendor’s facility. Since there generally is a shortage of utility based HFE experience, INL HFE staff supports the HFE related utility modernization & modification (obsolescence) activities whenever requested.

10 CFR 50.59↗

Automated Work Packages: Radio Frequency Identification, Bluetooth Beacons, and Video Applications in the Nuclear Power Industry

The need to move conventional paper-based work packages into an electronic state motivated the development of a large span of electronic work package forms that ranged from simple Portable Document Format (PDF) files to adaptive and intelligent electronic forms. In parallel to this development, the Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program (LWRS) initiated the automated work package as a pilot project to evaluate implementing state of the art automation techniques into the work package process to improve the economic and safety of the work process. Through a multiple year’s effort, the automated work package project have developed a vision of the future work package that relies on automation in all critical and human factor challenging tasks. The vision identified gaps in the work process, the means to automate them, and evaluated the implementation, feasibility and benefits of these means. This was conducted through continues engagement with the nuclear power industry. The aim of this report is to study the potential of three automation technologies, which have been advancing in various industries, in the current work process of nuclear power plants. The study is to determine the feasibility and benefits of incorporating the technologies and determine potential gaps, if any, that need to be addressed to facilitate deployment of the studied technologies. The three automation technologies identified for this effort are ultra-high frequency (UHF) radio frequency identification (RFID), Bluetooth low energy (BLE) beacons, and video monitoring and recording. As part of this effort, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) collaborated with Xcel Energy Inc. to evaluate these technologies. During the research and development scope of the effort, INL engaged Xcel Energy Inc. periodically and exchanged valuable insight on the means to implement these technologies in a nuclear power plant. Multiple pilot prototypes were developed and tested in a user study conducted at Xcel Energy Inc. in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The outcome of this effort resulted in significant findings that included the detailed means to custom fit the technologies to fit the nuclear power industry need, and identifying and evaluating several applications of high economic or safety potential. The limitations and obstacles that could impact deployment of the technologies were also identified, and the means of how to address these limitations and obstacles were studied.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

FY 2017 Summary Report on Industrial and Regulatory Engagement Activities

The Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) Systems Technologies Pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program conducts a vigorous engagement strategy with the U.S. nuclear power industry, including the nuclear operating companies, major support organizations, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and suppliers. The goal of this engagement strategy is to develop a shared vision and common understanding across the nuclear industry of the need for II&C modernization, the performance improvement that can be attained, and the opportunities for collaboration to enact this vision. In FY 2017, the vision, strategy, and project work was communicated to a number of key organizations, including the major industry support organizations, and a number of important industry conferences that are attended by leaders in nuclear plant instrumentation and controls as well as human performance and process improvement. This paper presents the specific engagement activities that occurred in FY 2017 to promote awareness and participation by the nuclear power industry in the activities of the II&C Pathway.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Implementation of ANL’s Mechanics Based Evolutionary Fatigue Modeling Through ABAQUS-WARP3D Based High-Performance Computing Framework

This report presents an update on the environmental fatigue research that is being conducted at Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. Argonne is developing a fully mechanistic fatigue evaluation approach without using empirical fatigue (S~N) curves. This approach is based on the fundamental concept of the time evolution of progressive fatigue damage rather than on the conventional S~N curve approaches using end-of-life data. In FY 2017, we performed extensive validation of this approach with respect to fatigue test data for 316 stainless steel [1]. This validation was performed for different loading cases, including constant, variable, and random amplitude. In the present FY 2018 semi-annual report, we present the further advances of Argonne’s environmental fatigue research work in the context for more practical applications. In this report, we discuss a methodology for fully mechanistic (i.e., not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of reactor components subjected to realistic loading cycles, namely, design-basis loading cycles. The loading cycles include plant heat-up, full-power, and cool-down operations. As a test case, we considered a typical pressurized water reactor surge line, which is made of 316 SS. To perform the fatigue simulation for thousands of fatigue cycles in a computationally cost effective way, we modified our previous desktop-based finite element (FE) modeling approach to work in a high-performance computing (HPC) framework. For the HPC implementation, we developed a hybrid framework based on commercial FE software (ABAQUS), open-source FE software (WARP3D), and Argonne-developed evolutionary cyclic-plasticity modeling methods. We validated this HPC-based cycle-by-cycle damage model for the entire fatigue life of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) surge line (SL) pipe with respect to assumed loading cycles. The simulated fatigue life was found to be 5855 cycles, which is 85% accurate as compared to the corresponding small-specimen-based experimental fatigue life (6914 cycles). Also, the simulated stress history captures the cyclic hardening and softening behavior of the material for entire fatigue cycles. The FE simulation of the PWR SL pipe was conducted in a reasonable time of 12.5 days. These results show the promise that a fully mechanistic (not using S~N curves) fatigue life evaluation of a safety-critical nuclear reactor component (or even other safety critical components like those in aircraft, aero-engines, etc.) is possible. We anticipate that this type of methodology will drastically reduce the uncertainly associated with conventional fatigue life estimates based on empirical S~N curves. We also proposed an FE model that is based on a hybrid full-component and single-element approach and that can readily be used by industry if HPC resources are not available. In this approach, a single-cycle FE simulation has to be performed first for the required loading cycle. Then, the resulting strain/stress profile at the hotspot (highest strain/stress location) is used as input strain/stress loading to the single-element FE model. The single-element FE model is run under multiple fatigue cycles as long as the failure criteria are achieved. The cycle number at failure gives the fatigue life of the component in question. This cost-effective framework does not require expensive HPC hardware and can be performed in a reasonable time by using a desktop computer. We demonstrated this approach with respect to PWR SL fatigue evaluation under two realistic design-basis loading cycles (simple and detailed). The associated results were validated with respect to test data obtained through fatigue testing of uniaxial specimens under the in-air condition at 300 °C. The approach is in the development stage and requires further improvement and validation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Business Case for Advanced Outage Management

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program develops and validates technologies that will make the U.S. operating nuclear fleet more efficient and competitive. The program has developed a standard methodology for determining the impact of new technologies in order to assist nuclear power plant (NPP) operators in building sound business cases. This paper presents a generic business case for implementation of technology that supports Advanced Outage Management (AOM). The analysis presented demonstrates that advanced communication and networking and analytical technologies will allow NPP to conduct outages with fewer people in management roles and the remaining people can be more effective and more productive. The benefits are quantified with a rough order of magnitude that provides directional guidance to NPPs that are interested in developing a similar business case. Advanced Outage Management is enabled by a suite of technologies, which are described in further detail in the body of this report. They include: • Mobile Work Packages (MWP) • Computer Based Procedures (CBP) • Personal Digital Assistants (PDA) also referred to as smart devices • Barcode readers • High bandwidth wireless networks • Collaboration software (i.e., OneNote) • Advanced digital displays • Advanced data analytics All the hardware necessary to implement AOM as envisioned in this report is readily available today. Configuration to perform within the plant systems and regulatory boundaries would need to be developed by the NPP. 1. The resulting business case demonstrates benefits in two major categories: 2. Reduction in resources required to manage the outage, a. Increased productivity in outage work that reduces the likelihood of schedule overruns: b. reduce likelihood of bulk work resulting in outage delays c. improved management of critical path single issues, d. improved management of emergent work (improve time to collect data and prepare response) It is important to note that in order to realize these benefits at the scale described in this report requires the plant to rethink how technologies can disrupt current processes; how data might be captured, processed, analyzed and presented with little or no human intervention. In many cases, technology be fully utilized in a way that not only aides productivity, but is utilized towards “work destruction” – elimination of work that is currently performed through a human interface.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FY 2018 Summary Report on Industrial and Regulatory Engagement Activities

The Plant Modernization Pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program conducts a vigorous engagement strategy with the U.S. nuclear power industry, including the nuclear operating companies, major support organizations, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and suppliers. The goal of this engagement strategy is to develop a shared vision and common understanding across the nuclear industry of the need for plant modernization, the performance improvement that can be attained, and the opportunities for collaboration to enact this vision. In FY 2018, the vision, strategy, and project work was communicated to a number of key organizations, including the major industry support organizations, and a number of important industry conferences that are attended by leaders in nuclear plant modernization. This report presents the specific engagement activities that occurred in FY 2018 to promote awareness and participation by the nuclear power industry in the activities of the Plant Modernization Pathway.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Developing a Roadmap for Total Nuclear Plant Transformation

Commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) provide emission free, always-on electricity that must be part of the energy mix if U.S. industry and business are to remain competitive while enjoying the benefits of a clean environment. Most U.S. NPPs in operation today were licensed using state-of-the-art analog technology of the 1970’s. While these systems are well proven and designed with multiple redundant channels, they required extensive manual surveillance and testing procedures to demonstrate their continued functioning. All of this adds up to increasing labor costs as the only means to increase plant availability. The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is performing a study to determine how an NPP can fully modernize, improve safety, and improve efficiency enough to make nuclear power competitive with current and future market conditions. The study is a process improvement analysis whereby current operational processes are evaluated to identify where efficiencies and cost-savings can be realized. This report will describe a process that will provide each utility with the tools to evaluate their present state, set goals for where they want to be regarding Operation and Maintenance (O&M) costs, while offering transformative pathways to achieve these improvements. The transformative changes will be divided into 1) work process improvements, 2) technology solutions, and 3) regulatory reform. By applying these pathways in combination, NPPs can achieve the dramatic O&M savings needed to sustain safe and economic operation into the future.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A Deterministic and Probabilistic Framework for Forecasting of Time-Series Damage States and Associated End-of-lIfe of a Pressurizer Water Reactor Surge Line under Design-Basis and Grid-Load-Following Loading Conditions

Argonne National Laboratory in support of the Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. The present semi-annual report covers the period between May 2018 and September 2018. In this report, we present the work performed to further improve the capability for structural integrity prediction. Part of this work focused on validating a computational fluid dynamics model for modeling thermal stratification. We also present finite element (FE) model based thermal-mechanical stress analysis of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line under grid-load-following loading condition. In addition, we present work related to end-of-life prediction of a PWR surge line based on ASME code and NUREG-6909 deterministic approaches under design-basis and grid-load-following conditions. Our research in this report period also majorly involved with the development of a strategy for probabilistic fatigue life estimation. First, we applied a Weibull probabilistic modeling approach based on end-of-life fatigue data (traditional S~N data under in-air and PWR water conditions) to estimate the probabilistic life for a given strain amplitude. Second, we developed a data analytics based Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo (MCMC) model for probabilistic modeling of time-series fatigue damage states and the associated probabilistic end-of-life of a component. Unlike the Weibull type approach, the MCMC type may not require a large number of fatigue tests for estimating the end-of-life for given loading and environmental conditions. We demonstrated the use of this framework through symmetric fatigue tests (stress- or strain-ontrolled tests either under in-air or PWR-water conditions) obtained from our earlier experiments. The MCMC model can use base time-series data either obtained from a model or fatigue experiment. Since experimental data are typically more accurate than model-calculated data, we used experiment-based time-series data to demonstrate the MCMC framework. However, when performing a complex experiment is not possible (due to time and costs involved), a model-based approach can be used to generate the time-series data. Similar model-based data are presented in our earlier report (e.g. for cyclic hardening damage states of a PWR surge line under constant amplitude and design-basis loading [1]). However, for the MCMC work in this report, we used experiment-based time-series damage states obtained from fatigue experiments under design-basis and grid-load-following loading conditions. The experimental loading inputs were based on thermal-mechanical FE model results of a typical PWR surge line. Then, we used the experimental time-series damage state data for forecasting the probabilistic time-series damage states and end-of-life of the PWR surge line. Based on this MCMC modeling strategy, and with the assumed loading, environment and thermal-mechanical boundary conditions, we have estimated that a 316SS-pure base metal PWR surge line would survive at least 159 years with zero failure probability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Risk-Informed Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient PWR with ATF, FLEX, and Passive Cooling

This report documents the activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during the fiscal year (FY) 2019 for the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF), optimal use of Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. The FY 2019 efforts documented in this report is an extension of those conducted in FY 2018. The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in FY 2018 are used for near-term ATF cladding [i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum (FeCrAl) cladding and Chromium (Cr) coated cladding] designs under the postulated loss of feedwater (LOFW) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident scenarios. In addition, FLEX analysis was presented for an overview of FLEX equipment and strategies implemented in nuclear industry after Fukushima accident. A FLEX model was developed and incorporated into the generic SAPHIRE model to assess the risk impact from FLEX. FLEX HRA analysis was performed which suggested an approach to HRA with FLEX strategies. Passive cooling system analysis includes an overview of the DNC system, the RELAP5-3D simulations of the DNC system in selected SBO scenarios, and the evaluation of the DNC system risk impact using the generic PRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Risk-Informed ATF and FLEX Analysis for an Enhanced Resilient BWR Under Design-Basis and Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents

This report documents the activities performed by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2020 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk-Informed System Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) Systems research. The purpose of the RISA Pathway research and development is to support plant owner-operator decisions with the aim to improve the economics, reliability, and maintain the high levels of safety of current nuclear power plants over periods of extended plant operations. The concept of ERP refers to the combinations of accident-tolerant fuel (ATF), optimal use of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, and the incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, as well as improved fuel cycle efficiency. The objective of the ERP research effort is to use the RISA methods and toolkit in industry applications, including methods development and early demonstration of technologies, in order to enhance existing reactors’ safety features (both active and passive) and to substantially reduce operating costs through risk-informed approaches to plant design modifications to the plant and their characterization. One main focus of the FY 2020 efforts documented in this report was to extend the analyses conducted in FYs 2018 and 2019 for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to a boiling water reactor (BWR). The same analysis process, risk analysis approaches, and analysis tools as in the previous work for PWR were used for a generic BWR with near-term ATF cladding (i.e., Iron-Chromium-Aluminum [FeCrAl] cladding and Chromium [Cr]-coated cladding) designs under the postulated station blackout (SBO) and medium loss-of-coolant (MLOCA) accident scenarios. In addition, a FLEX model was developed and incorporated into a generic BWR probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model using the INL-developed software tool, Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), to assess the risk impact from FLEX. The other main focus of the FY 2020 efforts was to advance analysis methods, including developing dynamic approach for FLEX human reliability analysis (HRA) using the INL-developed software tool, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD), as well as developing a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) method for evaluating costs and benefits of safety enhancements in nuclear power plants (NPPs). As a case study, the MCBE method was applied to evaluate the costs and benefits brought by FLEX implementation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Long-Term Thermal Aging Effect Evaluation for Grade 92 and 316L at The LWR Relevant Temperature

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer periods of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) initiated a collaboration with the Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program on the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, focused on developing and test degradation resistant alloys for light water reactor (LWR)- relevant environments. Based on a comprehensive microstructure and property screening, the ARRM program selected a total of five alloys (i.e., Grade 92, 310, 690, 718A, and 725), together with 316L and X-750 as references, for further investigations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗