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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Major Revisions in Arthropod Phylogeny Through Improved Supermatrix, With Support for Two Possible Waves of Land Invasion by Chelicerates

Deep phylogeny involving arthropod lineages is difficult to recover because the erosion of phylogenetic signals over time leads to unreliable multiple sequence alignment (MSA) and subsequent phylogenetic reconstruction. One way to alleviate the problem is to assemble a large number of gene sequences to compensate for the weakness in each individual gene. Such an approach has led to many robustly supported but contradictory phylogenies. A close examination shows that the supermatrix approach often suffers from two shortcomings. The first is that MSA is rarely checked for reliability and, as will be illustrated, can be poor. The second is that, to alleviate the problem of homoplasy at the third codon position of protein-coding genes due to convergent evolution of nucleotide frequencies, phylogeneticists may remove or degenerate the third codon position but may do it improperly and introduce new biases. We performed extensive reanalysis of one of such “big data” sets to highlight these two problems, and demonstrated the power and benefits of correcting or alleviating these problems. Our results support a new group with Xiphosura and Arachnopulmonata (Tetrapulmonata + Scorpiones) as sister taxa. This favors a new hypothesis in which the ancestor of Xiphosura and the extinct Eurypterida (sea scorpions, of which many later forms lived in brackish or freshwater) returned to the sea after the initial chelicerate invasion of land. Our phylogeny is supported even with the original data but processed with a new “principled” codon degeneration. We also show that removing the 1673 codon sites with both AGN and UCN codons (encoding serine) in our alignment can partially reconcile discrepancies between nucleotide-based and AA-based tree, partly because two sequences, one with AGN and the other with UCN, would be identical at the amino acid level but quite different at the nucleotide level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Compensating attenuation effects in full-waveform inversion with dissipation-dispersion decoupling

Seismic attenuation poses challenges to velocity model building from acoustic/elastic full-waveform inversion (FWI). In particular, when constructing the FWI gradient for velocity inversion, recent studies have indicated that the high-attenuation structure could distort the gradient by damping the amplitudes and shifting the kinematic phases, resulting in an imbalanced update and thus unreliable velocity model. These Q effects are particularly significant in the reflection acquisition geometry due to the “double-damping” issue. Here, we develop a Q-compensated FWI algorithm for constructing a Q-free FWI gradient. By using a recently developed viscoacoustic wave propagator, this compensation can be done conveniently by keeping the dispersion term and flipping the dissipation term in the wave equation when we simulate the forward and time-reversed adjoint wavefields. The resultant gradient obtained by interacting these two wavefields has correct kinematics and Q-free amplitudes. This Q-compensated FWI can balance the update between Q- and no- Q-areas, which we determine using synthetic examples. In addition, we illustrate how to take advantage of the dissipation-dispersion decoupling to determine the anomalous Q value in the Q model building workflow via Q-compensated reverse time migration.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing 3D surface imaging: single-axis structured light illumination plenoptic camera with machine learning integration

Structured light illumination (SLI) is a configurable 3D surface imaging modality that can function largely independently of surface texture. At the same time, machine learning (ML) approaches are providing new ways to capture relevant information from SLI patterns, avoiding the need to develop advanced computer vision algorithms. By projecting an optical pattern onto a surface and measuring the apparent distortion of that pattern, one can determine surface topography from a single image. Common realizations of SLI 3D imaging use off-axis SLI to allow for parallax-based determination of depth; however, in constrained geometries, the ability to make single-axis measurements can be of major benefit. While plenoptic imaging (PI) cameras have long been developed for the purpose of single-axis 3D imaging, they are generally reliant on the surface texture of the measured object, thus making them unreliable in certain experimental conditions. Therefore, we present a single-axis 3D SLI plenoptic camera, which combines the single-axis benefits of PI technology while using coaxial SLI to maintain indifference to surface conditions. We also present a study of the camera capabilities paired with the development of several algorithms, including traditional feature tracking methods as well as ML methods, which are found to enhance resolution and range. We report depth sensitivity down to 0.2% $\frac{dz}{z_0}$. The single-axis SLI 3D plenoptic camera demonstrates potential applicability for in-situ topographical measurements under a wide range of conditions including, but not limited to, objects without trackable surface texture, high temperatures, and constrained geometry environments.

Imaging systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distinguishing under- and over-coupled resonances without prior knowledge

We show that it is unreliable to determine the coupling condition of optical resonances by analyzing the extinction ratio change with wavelengths. We propose and demonstrate the unambiguous discrimination between under- and over-coupled resonances using binary phase modulation in power transmission measurement.

Cui, Chaohan (ORCID:0000000345178980)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Les Houches study on inclusive jet production at NNLO+NNLL

Jet production at the LHC is a powerful probe of QCD, making it ideal for precision tests and determinations of QCD parameters such as parton distribution functions and the strong coupling constant. To make the most of the abundant jet production data collected at the LHC, precise calculations are required. While state-of-the-art calculations reach next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD accuracy, a critical assessment of the remaining uncertainties arising from non-perturbative effects and missing higher orders remains crucial for correctly interpreting comparisons between theory and data. Scale variation is nearly always used to determine effects from missing higher orders. In this article, we reassess this method in the context of inclusive jet production by performing NNLO QCD calculations supplemented by small-jet-radius resummation through next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy (NNLL). We find that NNLL resummation can have an appreciable impact on the scale uncertainty for inclusive jet cross sections, and, for some scale choices, can lead to sizeable shifts of the central cross section. We conclude that scale variations in fixed-order and resummed calculations can drastically underestimate the impact of higher orders for commonly used jet radius parameters, and that missing higher-order estimates obtained via scale variations should be considered unreliable. Our findings add further evidence to the importance of going beyond scale variations in jet and jet substructure calculations.

Lee, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification of the DIF3D Software to Support Fast Reactor Analysis

Ongoing design activities at Argonne National Laboratory are requiring a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. DIF3D is central to this system. The driver for this effort requires the 3D Cartesian, triangular-Z, and hexagonal-Z core geometry options of DIF3D be verified. Previous work identified the DIF3D features required to be verified to support current design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying DIF3D’s ability to correctly translate the user’s model in to DIF3D’s preferred format, verifying that options planned for use have the desired effect, and verifying the correctness of the eigenvalue, fixed-source, forward, and adjoint solvers in DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-VARIANT. This manuscript provides the verification tasks and their results with respect to the features needed for current design activities. Since analytic solutions of the neutron diffusion and transport equations are either limited in scope or not possible, multiple tiers of problems unique to each solver and geometry type were implemented. Each of these tiers tests features independent and complementary arguments for why the separate testing of functionalities is acceptable. Finally, this separate testing was also supplemented with a high-level integral check of each the diffusion and transport capabilities and applicable geometries. To accommodate cases which an analytic solution is not feasible, MCNP6.2 was relied upon to provide a higher-order reference solution. This therefore required that the capabilities within MCNP6.2 which were relied upon for this work are also verified in this work. No MCNP discrepancies were noted in this effort. Note that the MCNP6.2 verification included in this work does not stand as a full verification of MCNP6.2, but merely verifies the features used in verifying DIF3D. The verification effort identified no issues that are debilitating or otherwise impactful to design usage of DIF3D, and thus DIF3D version 11.0, release 3012 is considered verified. The types of issues that were identified were predominantly in the areas of: unclear documentation, software bugs which were inconsequential to final results, editing options which were ignored in favor of printing more information than requested, bugs in the outputs of intermediate results, or secondary output binary file information which was not present. While not a bug, this verification report also identified that the algorithm used to evaluate the peak fast flux in a nodal transport solution can be quite unreliable due to the polynomial order used and the location of the peak within the mesh. The authors of the report therefore recommend the usage of the EvaluateFlux software (distributed with ARC) as a more robust alternative.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Virtual Metering for Monitoring Building Energy Consumption

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) has standard metering requirements of commercial buildings for optimizing energy performance. The guiding principles are to continuously track and optimize energy performance and install building-level meters for electricity, natural gas, and steam. Some buildings at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) have physical submeters monitoring their energy consumption, but these meters have proven to be unreliable. And, in most cases, replacing them has proven to be a slow process. Installing new submeters also requires a temporary lockout of the circuit on which they are being installed. Many buildings at LANL contain laboratories with ongoing experiments or data centers, which makes an equipment power outage nearly impossible to plan. This inability to plan power outages results in long-term submeter failures. Although most submeters are eventually replaced, failures lead to missing consumption data for some unpredictable, extended time. A building automation system (BAS) is a system that provides control and monitoring on a building to maintain the operational performance of the building and occupancy comfort. Many buildings at LANL currently have a BAS, and all new renovations and installs will include installing a BAS if one does not already exist. The intended purpose for a BAS is primarily to monitor the health and efficiency of a building; however, it is also possible to calculate equipment power and energy consumption using BAS information. This project aims to use virtual meters to monitor building energy consumption as a cost-effective and minimally labor-intensive alternative to installing physical submeters. The fault detection and diagnostics tool, SkySpark, provides a centralized database for all the data from the various BAS that are active at LANL. This data includes the information that is needed to create virtual meters for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in most buildings, including heating and cooling loads. 9 This report begins with a detailed summary of the project, including the reasoning, procedure, and results. The specific processes of creating the various virtual meters are then identified. Then the limitations are discussed. And, lastly, the results and future potential are presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progression to Compatibility Evaluations in Flowing Molten Salts

Molten salt compatibility with structural alloys has been identified as a key issue for the development of Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) systems with thermal storage. To accelerate this evaluation to pumped systems, the goal of this project was to conduct thermal convection loop (TCL) experiments with a peak temperature of ≥700°C and a typical temperature gradient of ~100°C. The experiments indicated that conventional ~16wt.%Cr Ni-based alloys are compatible up to 700°C with purified (i.e. low O) or dried (low H₂O) industrial-sourced Mg-K-Na chloride salt with <10 μm/yr loss. This two-year project was conducted based on the experimental and mechanistic understanding developed more than 60 years ago at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The first TCL experiment met the <15 μm/yr corrosion metric for this project with specimens of Ni-based alloy 600 exposed at 580°-700°C for 1000 h and post-exposure room temperature tensile tests showed minimal degradation. The second TCL experiment successfully deployed an electrochemical sensor from Argonne National Laboratory and had a peak temperature of 750°C but only ran for ~110 h due to a furnace failure. Both experiments used highly purified industrial-sourced salt with an O content of ~3 μg O/g salt and a Mg addition of 0.04 wt.%. In the second year, the Chloride Collective developed a more economical drying procedure such that the O content was much higher (>20,000 μg O/g salt). A third TCL experiment was conducted with a sensor and a peak temperature of 700°C using dried salt from the same industrial source and increased NaCl content (~20 wt.%). In addition to a 0.05% Mg addition to the salt, a Mg coupon was added in the coldest part of the loop which dissolved during the experiment. Again, small mass changes were noted for specimens of alloys 600 and C276 but the values were slightly higher than those measured in purified salt with Mg. A thin non-continuous and non-adherent oxide layer was deposited on most specimens containing Mg, Si and Al but Cr depletion also was observed. Both years included facilities qualification crucible experiments and then capsule experiments to confirm a baseline isothermal reaction rate. The first year capsule experiment led to the conclusion that the two-stage ORNL purification process using NH₄Cl and CCl₄ left the salt with a high Cl potential and a Mg addition (~0.05wt.%) was needed to lower the potential. The second year capsule experiments at 600° and 700°C found little difference in depth of attack for 0-0.25%Mg additions. In general, the complex reactions where salt can be trapped in the porous surface layer of metal indicated that mass change is an unreliable metric and average depth of Cr depletion is a better metric for assessing the extent of attack. These results have created a new baseline that is contrary to the recent published literature for chloride salts where mass losses have been reported that can be extrapolated to very significant annual metal loss rates. Chloride salt corrosion can be controlled and the results also indicate that salt purification to low O levels may not be necessary. However, additional TCL experiments are needed at different times and temperatures to generate important engineering information such as temperature dependent corrosion rates and reaction rate laws for extrapolation to long-term behavior and isolate the effect of salt additives and impurities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resiliency of Degraded Built Infrastructure

Infrastructure resiliency depends on the ability of infrastructure systems to withstand, adapt, and recover from chronic and extreme stresses. In this white paper, we address the resiliency of infrastructure assets and discuss improving infrastructure stability through development of our understanding of cement and concrete degradation. The resiliency of infrastructure during extreme events relies on the condition, adaptability, and recoverability of built infrastructure (roads, bridges, dams), which serves as the backbone of existing infrastructure systems. Much of the built infrastructure in the US has consistently been rated D+ by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE). Aged infrastructure introduces risk to the system, since unreliable infrastructure increases the likelihood of failures under chronic and extreme stress and are particularly concerning when extreme events occur. To understand and account for this added risk from poor infrastructure quality, more research is needed on (i) how the changing environment alters the aging of new and existing built infrastructure and (ii) how degradation causes unique failure mechanisms. The aging of built infrastructure is based on degradation of the structural materials, such as concrete and steel supports, which causes failure. Current work in cement/concrete degradation is based on (i) the development of high strength and degradation resistance concrete mixtures, (ii) methods of assessing the age and reliability of existing structures, and (3) modeling of structural stability and the microstructural evolution of concrete/cement from degradation mechanisms (sulfide attack, carbonation, decalcification). Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has made several investments in studying the durability and degradation of cement based materials, including using SNL-developed codes and methodologies (peridynamics, PFLOTRAN) to focus on chemo-mechanical fracture of cement for energy applications. Additionally, a recent collaboration with the University of Colorado Boulder has included fracture of concrete gravity dams, scaling the existing work to applications in full sized infrastructure problems. Ultimately, SNL has the experience in degradation of cementitious materials to extend the current research portfolio and answer concerns about the resilience of aging built infrastructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

CIS Project 22359, Final Technical Report. Discretized Posterior Approximation in High Dimensions

Our primary aim in this work is to understand how to efficiently obtain reliable uncertainty quantification in automatic learning algorithms with limited training datasets. Standard approaches rely on cross-validation to tune hyper parameters. Unfortunately, when our datasets are too small, holdout datasets become unreliable—albeit unbiased—measures of prediction quality due to the lack of adequate sample size. We should not place confidence in holdout estimators under conditions wherein the sample variance is both large and unknown. More poigniantly, our training experiments on limited data (Duersch and Catanach, 2021) show that even if we could improve estimator quality under these conditions, the typical training trajectory may never even encounter generalizable models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Pilot Jobs and CernVM File System for Simplified Use of Containers and Software Distribution

High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments entail an abundance of computing resources, i.e. sites, to run simulations and analyses by processing data. This requirement is fulfilled by local batch farms, grid sites, private/commercial clouds, and supercomputing centers via High Throughput Computing (HTC). The growing needs of such experiments and resources being prone to trends of heterogeneity make it difficult for physicists to handle these resources directly. Additionally, HEP collaborations heavily rely on data and software releases, typically in the order of tens of gigabytes, while conducting simulations and analyses. Hence, aspects of scalability, reliability, and maintenance become crucial with regards to the distribution of the necessary data and software stack. The GlideinWMS [4] framework helps with the resource management problem by using pilot jobs, aka Glideins, to provision reliable elastic virtual clusters. Glideins are submitted to unreliable heterogeneous resources which are validated and customized by the Glideins to make the worker nodes available for end-user job execution. On the other hand, the CernVM File System (CernVM-FS or CVMFS) [1] helps with data distribution. It is a write-once, read-everywhere filesystem used to deploy scientific software to thousands of nodes on a worldwide distributed computing infrastructure. CVMFS is based on the Hyper Text Transfer Protocol and has been widely used within the particle physics community for (1) distributing experiment software and data such as calibrations, and (2) facilitating containerization by efficiently hosting container images along with providing containerization software, especially Singularity [3] GlideinWMS relies on CVMFS installed locally on the computing resources to satisfy the experiments' software needs. This requires system administrators' effort to install and maintain CVMFS at the sites and limits the use of sites, especially HPC resources, that do not have CVMFS installed. This poster presents a solution, taking advantage of Glideins to provide CVMFS at most sites without the need for a local installation. Doing so expands the pool of resources available for HEP experiments and reduces the effort of system administrators for current resources. Additionally, the proposed solution allows GlideinWMS to also start Singularity [3], a containerization software that can run unprivileged, on sites where neither CVMFS nor Singularity are available, including HPC sites. The benefits provided by this solution are: (1) lower overhead for site administrators in that they have less software to install, (2) an expanded pool of resources that run user jobs with easy access to software and data provided by CVMFS, thus making life easier for the scientists, and (3) improved flexibility to use HPC resources by enabling GlideinWMS pilot jobs to support HPC sites.

Urs, Namratha↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Secure MultiParty Computation to Support Machine Learning in Radio Frequency Sensor Networks

In this project we developed and validated algorithms for privacy-preserving linear regression using a new variant of Secure Multiparty Computation (MPC) we call "Hybrid MPC" (hMPC). Our variant is intended to support low-power, unreliable networks of sensors with low-communication, fault-tolerant algorithms. In hMPC we do not share training data, even via secret sharing. Thus, agents are responsible for protecting their own local data. Only the machine learning (ML) model is protected with information-theoretic security guarantees against honest-but-curious agents. There are three primary advantages to this approach: (1) after setup, hMPC supports a communication-efficient matrix multiplication primitive, (2) organizations prevented by policy or technology from sharing any of their data can participate as agents in hMPC, and (3) large numbers of low-power agents can participate in hMPC. We have also created an open-source software library named "Cicada" to support hMPC applications with fault-tolerance. The fault-tolerance is important in our applications because the agents are vulnerable to failure or capture. We have demonstrated this capability at Sandia's Autonomy New Mexico laboratory through a simple machine-learning exercise with Raspberry Pi devices capturing and classifying images while flying on four drones.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) - Beta Version [Slides]

Due to high fossil fuel imports, high electricity rates, an unreliable electricity grid, and 100% renewable electricity goals, demand response can play a crucial role for the Puerto Rico electricity grid. The Puerto Rico Demand Response Impact and Forecast Tool (PR-DRIFT) is a spreadsheet-based tool in which users can estimate the potential impacts of demand response, energy efficiency, and VRE and storage adoption in Puerto Rico from 2021 through 2040. The tool includes projections for solar, wind, and battery adoption based on released RFPs and energy targets (including Act-17 2019) to generate a projected net load profile for each hour through 2040. Based on user inputs and default assumptions, the tool also projects load profile impacts of demand response and energy efficiency, and is specifically focused on highlighting projected demand response technical potential. This demand response technical potential can be used by local utilities, regulators, program administrators, or researchers to help design demand response programs for larger impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of the DIF3D Software to Support Fast Reactor Analysis

Ongoing design activities at Argonne National Laboratory are requiring a thorough verification of the Argonne Reactor Computation codes be performed. DIF3D is central to this system. The driver for this effort requires the 3D Cartesian, triangular-Z, and hexagonal-Z core geometry options of DIF3D be verified. Previous work identified the DIF3D features required to be verified to support current design activities, features of which are generally applicable to hexagonal-Z fast reactor designs. The scope of this verification effort includes verifying DIF3D’s ability to correctly translate the user’s model in to DIF3D’s preferred format, verifying that options planned for use have the desired effect, and verifying the correctness of the eigenvalue, fixed-source, forward, and adjoint solvers in DIF3D-FD and DIF3D-VARIANT. This manuscript provides the verification tasks and their results with respect to the features needed for current design activities. Since analytic solutions of the neutron diffusion and transport equations are either limited in scope or not possible, multiple tiers of problems unique to each solver and geometry type were implemented. Each of these tiers tests features independent and complementary arguments for why the separate testing of functionalities is acceptable. Finally, this separate testing was also supplemented with a high-level integral check of each the diffusion and transport capabilities and applicable geometries. To accommodate cases which an analytic solution is not feasible, MCNP6.2 was relied upon to provide a higher-order reference solution. This therefore required that the capabilities within MCNP6.2 which were relied upon for this work are also verified in this work. No MCNP discrepancies were noted in this effort. Note that the MCNP6.2 verification included in this work does not stand as a full verification of MCNP6.2, but merely verifies the features used in verifying DIF3D. The verification effort identified no issues that are debilitating or otherwise impactful to design usage of DIF3D, and thus DIF3D version 11.0, release 3012 is considered verified. As some additional changes have been made to the ARC software since this point all versions between release 3012 and 3266 can be considered verified as version 3253 was used for all updates in this revision. The types of issues that were identified were predominantly in the areas of: unclear documentation, software bugs which were inconsequential to final results, editing options which were ignored in favor of printing more information than requested, bugs in the outputs of intermediate results, or secondary output binary file information which was not present. While not a bug, this verification report also identified that the algorithm used to evaluate the peak fast flux in a nodal transport solution can be quite unreliable due to the methodology used and the location of the peak within the mesh. The authors of the report therefore recommend the usage of the EvaluateFlux software (distributed with ARC) as a more robust alternative noting that DIF3D will properly notify the user when the peaking values it is providing are potentially incorrect.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Report on Data Quality Required for Modeling an MSR

Calculations were performed to assess how uncertainties in molten salt property values impact the results of behavior models of molten salt reactor systems under steady-state conditions. The thermophysical and thermochemical properties of salt mixtures being considered for use in molten salt reactors are not yet well characterized and methods used to measure property values to molten salts are not yet well established. The limited property data for salts of interest that are available in the literature are inconsistent and unreliable. Many methods used to measure property values remain developmental in the sense that not all variables affecting measured values have been identified or controlled during the measurement and not all aspects of the measurements affecting data quality are calibrated. A prior report described the repeatability of measurements made at Argonne and the reproducibility of measurements made with the same salts at several institutions is being evaluated. There is significant uncertainty in measured property values due to instrumental limitations and the effects of contaminants in the salts used to make the measurements that impacts predictions of salt behavior in a reactor. Most salts of interest are multicomponent eutectic or near-eutectic mixtures and both uncertainty in the salt composition and uncertainty in measured values. Furthermore, the salt composition evolves over time due to the uptake of impurities from the atmosphere and corrosion of containment vessels. More significantly, fission products will accumulate during operation that change the salt compositions and property values. MSR developers need to understand how this uncertainty in the basic property data of the fuel will impact modeling predictions for normal reactor operation as well was in transient scenarios that will impact the safety basis. The calculations and analyses in this report address the impact of uncertainty in measured property values under steady-state conditions through a generalized parametric study. The pooled uncertainty from contributions by a number of factors were considered and quantified, including varying composition due to impurities and fission products, imprecision in the measured values, and uncontrolled aspects of the measurement. In this way, we can begin to gain an understanding of the magnitude of the impact uncertainty will have in modeling MSR systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drought Impacts on Hydroelectric Power Generation in the Western United States

The Western United States experiences large fluctuations in rain and snowfall from year to year, affecting river flows and reservoir levels throughout the region. This interannual variability in water resources leaves a strong signature on total annual energy generated by the region’s fleet of hydroelectric dams. In a wet year, like 2011, hydroelectric power can meet 30 percent of annual western electricity demand. That contribution can drop below 20 percent during severe drought years. Characterizing the contribution of hydroelectric power to the western generation portfolio during drought is crucial to understanding the resilience of the hydropower sector to climate-related risk, both now and in the future. This report analyzes the impacts of historical western droughts on hydroelectric power production by combining two decades’ worth of annual generation—recorded at more than 600 hydroelectric power plants—with historical climate data developed for distinct hydropower subregions of the West. The most extreme impacts of drought on hydroelectric power are found at individual dams where reservoir levels are so low that released water and thus generation becomes severely restricted. These isolated cases often receive widespread media attention, leading to a common misconception that hydroelectric power is an unreliable technology whose role will diminish over time as the western climate produces longer and more severe droughts. Yet, when aggregated to the scale of the West, the observational records of hydropower generation reveal a different story. Even during the most severe droughts experienced since the turn of the century, the western hydropower fleet sustained more than 80% of its typical annual generation. Observational data indicate that drought in 2021 led to the worst year for hydropower generation in the West since 2001, with total generation approximately 16 percent below the 21st century two-decade average. The year 2021 was particularly severe in California (second worst hydro year of last two decades, ~48 percent below average) and Oregon (worst hydro year of last two decades), while generation in Washington and Idaho was affected to a lesser degree (~12 percent below average for combined region). The year 2001 remains the year of lowest western hydropower generation of the twenty-first century so far, owing to extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest, where about two-thirds of western hydropower capacity is located. The primary reason for this relative stability is the diversity of weather across the West; drought rarely impairs hydroelectric power across all river basins at the same time.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unleashing the Frequency: Multi-Megawatt Demonstration of 100% Renewable Power Systems with Decentralized Communication-Less Control Scheme

Power systems, which range in size from small microgrids to island systems to large regional grids, are typically managed by a central controller that requires complex communication methods and can be unreliable and pose cyber security risks in certain applications, especially when controlling a larger number of nodes. We propose an inherently robust, scalable method of integration using multiple energy storage systems and distributed energy resources, which does not require any means of dedicated communication. This method moves beyond the paradigm of controlling grid frequency at a fixed value (e.g., 60 Hz), instead allowing the frequency to fluctuate within certain limits (e.g., 59.6-60.4 Hz). With a greater operating range, the frequency can carry necessary information from energy storage systems to highly variable distributed energy resources like photovoltaics, wind, hydro, etc.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗