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At least 181 records · Page 10

High volume data storage architecture analysis

A High Volume Data Storage Architecture Analysis was conducted. The results, presented in this report, will be applied to problems of high volume data requirements such as those anticipated for the Space Station Control Center. High volume data storage systems at several different sites were analyzed for archive capacity, storage hierarchy and migration philosophy, and retrieval capabilities. Proposed architectures were solicited from the sites selected for in-depth analysis. Model architectures for a hypothetical data archiving system, for a high speed file server, and for high volume data storage are attached.

Malik, James M.↗

Design and performance evaluation of a dual-circuit thermal energy storage module for air conditioners

We present experimental results and a validated numerical model of a dual-circuit phase-change thermal energy storage module for air conditioners. The module incorporates a phase-change material encapsulated in compressed expanded natural graphite foam. We used n-tetradecane as the PCM with a transition temperature (~4.5 °C) suitable for air-conditioning applications. Heat exchange to and from the module is accomplished through two fluid loops operating as a heat source and sink embedded inside multiple slabs of the composite material. This dual-circuit design enables easier integration with air-conditioning equipment and provides enhanced flexibility in system operation as compared to the state-of-the-art thermal storage systems. When integrated with an air-conditioner, this design will enable peak-load shaving and enhances operational efficiency. The thermal storage device was designed for a nominal storage capacity of ~ 3.5 kWh. We evaluated the heat transfer and energy storage performance of this device using standalone heat transfer experiments to estimate key thermal resistances and identify design improvements before integration with an air conditioner. The numerical model of the heat exchanger uses a combination of discretized and lumped parameter approaches to maintain a balance between accuracy and computational expense. Our analyses show that the geometric features and integration of fluid tubes are key contributors to the thermal contact resistance between the fluid and the thermal storage material, and consequently, to the overall performance of the thermal storage module. Our standalone experiments also identified important operating scenarios in which this thermal storage module can be used for air-conditioning in buildings.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Emerging Soluble Organic Redox Materials for Next-Generation Grid Energy-Storage Applications

Soluble organic redox molecules have emerged as promising candidate active materials for multiple energy storage systems due to their structural versatility, fast redox process, high capacity storage, sustainability, and environmental friendliness. This review examines recent progress in developing such materials in green and sustainable batteries for grid applications and points out directions for future research.

Zhan, Xiaowen↗

Large-scale Hydrogen Storage – Risk Assessment Seattle City Light and Port of Seattle [Abstract]

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support Seattle City Light (SCL), and the Port of Seattle (Port) in performing a risk assessment of large-scale hydrogen storage. Risk assessment is often used to ensure that adequate measures are taken to protect workers and the public, the environment, infrastructure, and assets. A detailed risk assessment can also be used to direct funding and upgrades, to specific components and sub-systems in order to mitigate risks to the larger system. In this way risk assessments are often employed as a part of a larger risk management strategy, with the goal of minimizing the occurrence of hazards and to identify means to limit their consequences. Risk assessment is often used to engage and inform regulators, and to communicate how specific regulations are being met. However, it is important to note that the proposed work is not intended for SCL and the Port to use in order to gain regulatory acceptance for their proposed activities. The work performed as a part of this effort will be a preliminary risk assessment for early-stage component and system designs and should be considered research and development (R&D). As such, the proposed work will be performed to a quality level and design maturity consistent with R&D and is not considered appropriate for final safety analysis and regulatory compliance purposes. Previous and on-going work at SCL and the Port demonstrated the utility of deploying hydrogen systems at the Port. The deployment of hydrogen at the Port is a part of a larger vision of using hydrogen to address a range of issues for SCL and the Port. These include large-scale fueling of MD/HD vehicles, cargo-handling equipment (CHE), and harbor vessels to reduce emissions; support of adjacent LD vehicles; support of critical port operations during extreme events (i.e., resiliency); deferral of more capital- and time-intensive electrical distribution system upgrades while still supporting evolving port operations and decarbonization efforts; facilitating electrification by establishing energy storage as a grid resource, starting at strategic port locations; creation of a flexible market resource that can be used by SCL to generate revenue via arbitrage; support of planned future maritime operations that involve heavy use of hydrogen for ocean-going vessels; and future end-use applications involving natural gas pipeline hydrogen injection. Ultimately, the success of these activities is underpinned by the deployed storage capacity. Large-scale deployment of hydrogen systems will require hydrogen storage at a scale that has not been demonstrated. In addition, the ideal location for such multi-use systems is near the end user which will often necessitate deploying into urban and/or industrial areas. A detailed risk assessment using the Port as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful. Many technologies have been proposed for hydrogen storage; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for the Port will be analyzed, and a risk assessment for compressed hydrogen, liquified hydrogen, and Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier (LOHC) storage will be performed. These risk assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform in terms of facility and public safety. The operating states of the proposed hydrogen systems at the Port will be analyzed and incorporated into the storage risk assessment. Scalability will also be analyzed to understand how future port uses would affect the overall risk assessment. Finally, using the risk assessment as a tool to inform engagement and to gain stakeholder acceptance will be explored.

08 HYDROGEN↗

High-Density Capacitive Energy Storage in Low-Dielectric-Constant Polymer PMMA/2D Mica Nanofillers Heterostructure Composite

The ubiquitous, rising demand for energy storage devices with ultra-high storage capacity and efficiency has drawn tremendous research interest in developing energy storage devices. Dielectric polymers are one of the most suitable materials used to fabricate electrostatic capacitive energy storage devices with thin-film geometry with high power density. In this work, we studied the dielectric properties, electric polarization, and energy density of PMMA/2D Mica nanocomposite capacitors where stratified 2D nanofillers are interfaced between the multiple layers of PMMA thin films using two heterostructure designs of the capacitors, PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA (PMP) and PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA/2D Mica/PMMA (PMPMP). The incorporation of a 2D Mica nanofiller in the low-dielectric-constant PMMA leads to an enhancement in the dielectric constant, with ∆ε ~ 15% and 53% for PMP and PMPMP heterostructures at room temperature. Additionally, a significant improvement in discharged energy density was measured for the PMPMP capacitor (Ud ~ 38 J/cm3 at 825 MV/m) compared to the pristine PMMA (Ud ~ 9.5 J/cm3 at 522 MV/m) and PMP capacitors (Ud ~ 19 J/cm3 at 740 MV/m). This excellent capacitive and energy storage performance of the PMMA/2D Mica heterostructure nanocomposite may inform the fabrication of thin-film, high-density energy storage capacitor devices for potential applications in various platforms.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Improving Flood and Drought Management in Agricultural River Basins: An Application to the Mun River Basin in Thailand

Agriculture productivity is regularly affected by floods and droughts, and the severity is likely to increase in the future. Even if significant efforts are spent on water development projects, ineffective project planning often means that they continue to occur or are only partly mitigated, for example, in the Mun River Basin, Thailand, where 1000s of water projects have been implemented. Despite this, the basin regularly experiences floods and droughts. In this study, an analysis of the adverse impacts of basin-scale floods and droughts on rice cultivation in the Mun River Basin is conducted, and an estimation of the coping capacity of existing measures. The results demonstrate that while the total storage capacity of in-situ and ongoing projects would be sufficient to tackle both hazards, it can only be achieved if the projects are effectively utilised. Based on this, proposed solutions for the region include small farm ponds, a subsurface floodwater harvesting system, and oxbow lake reconnections. The suggested measures are practicable, economical, environmentally low-impact, and their implementation (if executed with appropriate care) would reduce flood and drought problems in the basin. Notably, the measures and calculation methods proposed for this basin can also be applied to other crops and regions.

Farm pond↗

Fostering a Guiding Multiscale Model for the Development of Advanced MgB 2 Hydrogen Storage Materials (Final Technical Report)

Project Goal and Objective. The demand for energy and for an upgraded energy infrastructure has steadily grown, as have the needs for energy independence and alternatives to our reliance on petroleum. Hydrogen is considered the most viable fuels for wide-scale implementation in the near future as it is less-polluting, non-toxic, and has more stored energy than petroleum. It is envisioned that hydrogen can eventually become the prime energy carrier, integrating the transportation, grid, and chemical sectors in a way that improves resiliency, diversifies feedstocks, and affords new economic opportunities. A key remaining challenge is the development materials with enhanced gravimetric and volumetric hydrogen storage capacities that offer a higher performance than compressed gas. These materials would eliminate the need for large-scale compression, thereby dramatically reducing the footprint and cost of gas storage. The high gravimetric and volumetric hydrogen capacities of complex hydrides has prompted an intensive investigation of the potential of this class of materials as hydrogen storage media over the past 25 years. Among the many complex hydrides that have been explored, magnesium borohydride, Mg(BH 4 ) 2 , has been found to possess the best combination of practical thermodynamic properties. These include a gravimetric H 2 density of 14.9 wt% H 2 and thermodynamics for the dehydrogenation of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 to MgB 2 (equation 1) (ΔH° = 39 kJ/mol H 2 , ΔS = 112 J/K mol H 2 ) which lie in the narrow window required Mg(BH 4 ) 2 $\Leftrightarrow$ MgB 2 + 4 H 2 (1) for reversibility under moderate pressure and temperature. However, overcoming the extremely slow kinetics of the reversible release of hydrogen by this material in the solid state is a daunting challenge. At temperatures greater than 400 °C, the borohydride releases up to 14 wt% hydrogen giving MgB 2 . We discovered that the direct re-hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 can be accomplished under 950 bar H 2 at 400 °C. While this demonstrated that complete reversibility can be achieved, the conditions employed are far too extreme for commercial hydrogen storage applications. More recently, we found through US DOE funded research projects (EERE HyMARC and HySCOR), that hydrogen cycling, can be accomplish at much milder conditions upon modification of the borohydride or boride. Guided by these discoveries these discoveries, the objective of this research project was to obtain key information that will enable the development of a model of reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 . The ultimate goal of our efforts is to attain a model of this transformation that can be utilized to accelerate development further advanced materials. This project directly follows on discoveries that were made over the course of a US DOE, EERE HyMARC project that was focused on improvement of the hydrogen cycling kinetics of modified MgB 2 . We found that that mechanical milling with graphene results the desired, pronounced kinetic enhancement. The dramatic lowering of the conditions required for the hydrogenation of MgB 2 is a significant step towards overcoming its chemical inertness allowing its development as a practical onboard hydrogen storage material. However, the exact nature of the modification(s) of MgB 2 that is responsible for its activation towards hydrogenation is completely unknown. This situation is not unique, as efforts to develop hydrogen storage materials typically have a narrow focus rather than a comprehensive approach that takes atomic level bonding and structure; molecular dynamics; long range, nano- and mesoscale-structure and their interconnection all into account. The goal of this project was the development of a comprehensive, multi-scale computational model of reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 that can be utilized for development of higher performance versions of the modified material. Development of the model requires determination of: 1) the bulk, nano-scale, and meso-scale structural changes occurring at elevated pressure following mechano-chemical modification of MgB 2 ; 2) the reaction pathway of the reversible hydrogenation of MgB 2 to Mg(BH 4 ) 2 ; 3) the effect of elevated pressure and mechano-chemical modification on the chemical reaction pathways; 4) the interactions at solid-gas interfaces; and particle surfaces; and 5) the kinetics and thermodynamic parameters associated with each step of the hydrogenation reaction pathway. This investigation required advanced techniques as preliminary, standard XRD, 11 B NMR, and FTIR analysis showed no signs of material modification. In order to gain this level of understanding of modified MgB 2 , required the teaming of a diverse group of experts and state-of-the art experimental capabilities at the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM) and collaborating National Laboratories: Craig Jensen , Department of Chemistry (PI and Project Director), solid state, solution, and high pressure NMR spectroscopy; solid-state synthesis; and high pressure hydrogenation (collaboration with SNL); Godwin Severa , Hawaii Natural Energy Institute (co-PI) calorimetry; infrared and Raman spectroscopy (collaboration with NREL); Dera , high pressure X-ray diffraction including in situ experiments (collaboration with ANL); Hope Ishii , Hawaii Institute of Geophysics electron microscopy investigations (collaboration with LBNL); and Joe Brown , Mechanical Engineering , material electronic structure and electric field effects.

08 HYDROGEN↗

3D Quantification of Pore Networks and Anthropogenic Carbon Mineralization in Stacked Basalt Reservoirs

Basalt formations are promising candidates for the geologic storage of anthropogenic CO 2 due to their storage capacity, porosity, permeability, and reactive geochemical trapping ability. The Wallula Basalt Carbon Storage Pilot Project demonstrated that supercritical CO 2 injected into >800 m deep Columbia River Basalt Group stacked reservoir flow tops mineralizes to ankerite-siderite-aragonite on month-year timescales, with 60% of the 977 metric tonnes of CO 2 converted within two years. The potential impacts of mineral precipitation and consequent changes on rock porosity, pore structure, pore size, and pore size distributions have likely been underestimated hitherto. Herein, we address these knowledge gaps using X-ray Micro Computed Tomography (XMT) to evaluate the pore network architecture of sidewall cores recovered two years after CO 2 injection. In the present study, we performed a detailed quantitative analysis of the CO 2 -reacted basalt cores by XMT imaging. Reconstructed 3D images were analyzed to study the distribution and volumetric details of porosity and carbonate nodules in the cores along with the various other phases, providing insight into paragenesis and carbonate growth mechanisms, including mineralogic/chemical zonation. Finally, these findings are being used to parametrize multiphase reactive transport models to predict the fate and transport of subsurface CO 2 , enabling scale-up to commercial-scale geologic carbon storage in basalts and other reactive mafic-ultramafic formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Materials-Based Options for On-Board Hydrogen Storage for Rail Applications

The objective of this project was to evaluate material- and chemical-based solutions for hydrogen storage in rail applications as an alternative to high-pressure hydrogen gas and liquid hydrogen. Three use cases were assessed: yard switchers, long-haul locomotives, and tenders. Four storage options were considered: metal hydrides, nanoporous sorbents, liquid organic hydrogen carriers, and ammonia, using 700 bar compressed hydrogen as a benchmark. The results suggest that metal hydrides, currently the most mature of these options, have the highest potential. Storage in tenders is the most likely use case to be successful, with long-haul locomotives the least likely due to the required storage capacities and weight and volume constraints. Overall, the results are relevant for high-impact regions, such as the South Coast Air Quality Management District, for which an economical vehicular hydrogen storage system with minimal impact on cargo capacity could accelerate adoption of fuel cell electric locomotives. The results obtained here will contribute to the development of technical storage targets for rail applications that can guide future research. Moreover, the knowledge generated by this project will assist in development of material-based storage for stationary applications such as microgrids and backup power for data centers.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Superstoichiometric Alloying of H and Close‐Packed Fe‐Ni Metal Under High Pressures: Implications for Hydrogen Storage in Planetary Core

Although high pressure enables alloying between hydrogen and iron, hydrogen-to-iron molar ratio (H/Fe) so far found in experiments is mostly limited to 1 in the close-packed iron metal under high pressure. We report a H/(Fe + Ni) ratio of 1.8 ± 0.1 from (Fe,Ni)H x (or x ≥ 1.8) quenched from liquid, exceeding the amounts so far reported for densely packed Fe alloys. From the metastable behavior of the frozen (Fe,Ni)Hx liquid during decompression, we infer that the amount is a lower bound and therefore even a greater amount of H can be dissolved in the liquid part of Fe-rich cores of planets. The significant H storage capacity of liquid Fe-Ni alloy is important to consider for potential storage of H in the interiors of low-density planets as well as rocky planets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fracture-matrix fluid exchange in oil-bearing unconventional mudstones

The poromechanical properties of unconventional reservoir materials are in large part dictated by their mineralogy. Since these properties govern the response to stress experienced during hydraulic fracturing, fluid production, and fluid injection, they play a central role in the formation of microcracks or bedding delaminations which ultimately dominate mass transport. In this work we study access to the porosity of end member unconventional reservoir materials, where the end members are predominantly dictated by carbonate content. Access to the porosity is quantified using state of the art 3D x-ray computed tomography coupled with physics informed data analytics. Xenon gas, which attenuates x-rays, provides a spatiotemporal map of access to the porosity. The accessible porosity is quantified over a range of net confining stress relevant to the manmade disturbances listed above. These experiments demonstrate that heavily carbonated mudstones are nearly impermeable at the core (~ cm) scale, while carbonate free analogues afford better access to the microstructure. Consistent with previous qualitative 2D radiographs, access to the interior of the clastic mudstones is first observed along planar microcracks, followed by slow penetration into the surrounding matrix. Physics informed data analytics of the 3D tomography measurements presented here show that these microcracks do not permit uniform access to the adjacent rock matrix. In addition, variation of the effective pressure elucidates the mechanisms that govern fracture/matrix fluid exchange. Under conditions consistent with hydrocarbon production fluid accumulates in the immediate vicinity of the nearest microcrack. While there is clear evidence that, as intended, part of this accumulation is from the more distant matrix, fluid is also squeezed out of the microcrack. The fluid build-up at the microcrack indicates that migration out of the rock is hindered by the coupled poroelastic response of the microcrack and adjacent rock matrix. We show that these mechanisms ultimately account for the meager oil recovery factors realized in practice. These insights have implications for making reservoir scale predictions based on core scale observations, and provide a basis for devising new asset development techniques to access more porosity, and enhance fluid extraction. Finally, these findings shed light on key features and mechanisms that govern shale storage capacity, with relevance to other important industrial processes, such as geologic CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydroelectric Power and Hydrogen Production Integration

Hydropower-based hydrogen production could introduce opportunities for new revenue streams for hydropower plants, including from energy storage and regeneration as well as from sale of the hydrogen product to external markets. Hydrogen-based energy storage and regeneration could also help support Idaho Power’s decarbonization goals by decreasing dependence on fossil-based peaking power plants. Additionally, integration of hydrogen production with hydropower generation could help address the issue of low dissolved oxygen river water conditions that commonly accompany hydropower plant operations by utilizing the oxygen byproduct from an electrolytic hydrogen production process as a resource for mitigation of low dissolved oxygen water conditions. Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of the hybrid hydroelectric and hydrogen energy storage system has revealed critical insights into the pathways and considerations for optimizing the economic value and environmental benefits of such systems. Among the three identified pathways of natural gas blending, regeneration, and direct sale of hydrogen, the direct sale of hydrogen emerges as the most profitable, particularly given the current pricing dynamics of hydrogen and electricity. However, as we anticipate a future grid characterized by higher renewable energy penetration, the landscape may evolve, featuring lower average electricity prices, heightened fluctuations, and more significant seasonal variations. Consequently, the attractiveness of electricity regeneration through hydrogen and the benefits of long-duration hydrogen storage are expected to increase substantially in such a dynamic energy scenario. The careful selection of component sizes within the hybrid system proves to be paramount for ensuring cost-effectiveness. Notably, the size of the hydrogen market has emerged as a critical determinant for the optimal size of the electrolyzer. Hydrogen storage should be sized to meet energy shifting requirements. The appropriate size of the fuel cell/microturbine generator hinges on the shape of electricity prices and the available revenue streams derived from participating in grid services. Striking the right balance among these components is essential for maximizing the overall efficiency and profitability of the hydrogen facility. Furthermore, the by-product of electrolysis, namely oxygen, introduces an additional dimension to the system's functionality. The oxygen generated can be effectively utilized for dissolved oxygen (DO) mitigation, particularly with larger electrolyzer sizes capable of satisfying the complete oxygen demand for this purpose. While the economic benefits derived from saved oxygen purchase costs may be relatively modest compared to other revenue streams, the environmental advantages of repurposing oxygen for DO mitigation could help Idaho Power meet their environmental obligations. In addition to the identified factors shaping the viability of hybrid hydrogen production and hydroelectric generation, it is noteworthy that the integration of hydrogen energy storage offers a unique advantage during unusually wet years. In such periods of increased water inflow, the hydrogen storage capacity serves as a valuable supplement to the reservoir. By utilizing hydrogen energy storage as a complementary reservoir, the system gains flexibility in reservoir management when dealing with fluctuations in water availability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Review of CCUS in the Context of Foams, Regulatory Frameworks and Monitoring

Greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere is considered the main reason for the rise in Earth’s mean surface temperature. According to the Paris Agreement, to prevent the rise of the global average surface temperature beyond two degrees Celsius, global CO2 emissions must be cut substantially. While a transition to a net-zero emission scenario is envisioned by mid-century, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) will play a crucial role in mitigating ongoing greenhouse gas emissions. Injection of CO2 into geological formations is a major pathway to enable large-scale storage. Despite significant recent technological advancements, mass deployment of these technologies still faces several technical and non-technical difficulties. This paper provides an overview of technical milestones reached thus far in CO2 capture, utilization, geological storage, monitoring technologies, and non-technical aspects such as regulatory frameworks and related policies in the US and the rest of the world. This paper describes different injection methods to store CO2 in various subsurface formations, the use of foams and the resulting potential gains in CO2 storage capacity, the role of nanoparticles for foam stabilization, and ensuring long-term storage safety. This work also addresses several safety-related aspects of geological storage and subsurface monitoring technologies that may mitigate risks associated with long-term storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Storage system software solutions for high-end user needs

Today's high-end storage user is one that requires rapid access to a reliable terabyte-capacity storage system running in a distributed environment. This paper discusses conventional storage system software and concludes that this software, designed for other purposes, cannot meet high-end storage requirements. The paper also reviews the philosophy and design of evolving storage system software. It concludes that this new software, designed with high-end requirements in mind, provides the potential for solving not only the storage needs of today but those of the foreseeable future as well.

Hogan, Carole B.↗

SODR Memory Control Buffer Control ASIC

The Spacecraft Optical Disk Recorder (SODR) is a state of the art mass storage system for future NASA missions requiring high transmission rates and a large capacity storage system. This report covers the design and development of an SODR memory buffer control applications specific integrated circuit (ASIC). The memory buffer control ASIC has two primary functions: (1) buffering data to prevent loss of data during disk access times, (2) converting data formats from a high performance parallel interface format to a small computer systems interface format. Ten 144 p in, 50 MHz CMOS ASIC's were designed, fabricated and tested to implement the memory buffer control function.

Hodson, Robert F.↗

Density Functionals for Hydrogen Storage: Defining the H2Bind275 Test Set with Ab Initio Benchmarks and Assessment of 55 Functionals

Efficient and high-capacity storage materials are indispensable for a hydrogen-based economy. In silico tools can accelerate the process of discovery of new adsorbent materials with optimal hydrogen adsorption enthalpies. Density functional theory is well-poised to become a very useful tool for enabling high-throughput screening of potential materials. In this work, we have identified density functional approximations that provide good performance for hydrogen binding applications following a two-pronged approach. First, we have compiled a data set (H2Bind275) that comprehensively represents the hydrogen binding problem capturing the chemical and mechanistic diversity in the binding sites encountered in hydrogen storage materials. We have also computed reference interaction energies for this data set using coupled-cluster theory. Second, we have assessed the performance of 55 density functional approximations for predicting H 2 interaction energies and have identified two hybrid density functionals (ωB97X-V and ωB97M-V), two double hybrid density functionals (DSD-PBEPBE-D3(BJ) and PBE0-DH), and one semilocal density functional (B97M-V) as the best performing ones. We have recommended the addition of empirical dispersion corrections to systematically underbinding density functionals such as revPBE, BLYP, and B3LYP for improvements in performance at negligible additional cost. We have also recommended the usage of the def2-TZVPP basis set as it represents a good compromise between accuracy and cost, limiting the finite basis set errors to less than 1 kJ/mol.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗