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At least 181 records · Page 10

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DOE OSTI2023

Beyond Expected Values Evolving Metrics for Resource Adequacy Assessment

Resource adequacy analysis quantifies the likelihood of capacity shortfall on a power system in a probabilistic manner. Using a combination of statistical techniques and power system fundamentals, the analysis typically evaluates hundreds or thousands of stochastic random samples (replications) of varying load, generator outages, variable renewable energy availability, and other aspects of power system uncertainty. In this range of uncertainty, there are - at times - periods where the power system's available resources are insufficient to meet system demand, referred to as a shortfall event. Today's power systems' rapidly evolving generation mix is changing the types of data needed by system planners and regulators, which can often render traditional resource adequacy metrics insufficient for ensuring resource adequacy for tomorrow's grid. In this paper we provide a critical assessment of traditional measures of shortfall risk in power systems, discussing their shortcomings and how they compare to metrics used in other domains. From this analysis we propose four steps forward for improving power system resource adequacy risk metrics in the future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stability and Performance of an Undersea Kite Operating in a Turbulent Flow Field

In this paper, we examine the effects of flow disturbances resulting from turbulence on the dynamic behavior of an underwater energy-harvesting kite system that executes periodic figure-8 flight. Due to the periodic nature of the kite’s operation, we begin by assessing orbital stability using the Floquet analysis and stroboscopic intersection analysis of a Poincaré section, with the former analysis performed on a simplified “unifoil” model and the latter performed on a six-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF)/flexible tether model. With periodic stability established, a frequency-domain analysis based on a linearization about the kite’s path is used to predict the quality of flight path tracking as a function of the turbulence frequency. To validate the accuracy of these simulation-based predictions under flow disturbances, we compare the predictions of the kite’s behavior against the results of small-scale tow testing experiments performed in a controlled pool environment.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate Modeling of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems: A Comparative Study

Surrogate models play a vital role in overcoming the computational challenge in designing and analyzing nonlinear dynamic systems, especially in the presence of uncertainty. This paper presents a comparative study of different surrogate modeling techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems. Four surrogate modeling methods, namely, Gaussian process (GP) regression, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network, a convolutional neural network (CNN) with LSTM (CNN-LSTM), and a CNN with bidirectional LSTM (CNN-BLSTM), are studied and compared. All these model types can predict the future behavior of dynamic systems over long periods based on training data from relatively short periods. The multi-dimensional inputs of surrogate models are organized in a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) scheme to enable recursive prediction over long periods, where current predictions replace inputs from the previous time window. Three numerical examples, including one mathematical example and two nonlinear engineering analysis models, are used to compare the performance of the four surrogate modeling techniques. The results show that the GP-NARX surrogate model tends to have more stable performance than the other three deep learning (DL)-based methods for the three particular examples studied. The tuning effort of GP-NARX is also much lower than its deep learning-based counterparts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

How does urbanization affect CO 2 emissions of central heating systems in China? An assessment of natural gas transition policy based on nighttime light data

Understanding the different impacts of urbanization on sectorial carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at different spatial scales is of great importance for the evaluation of energy transition policies and reduction of environmental inequality. However, how urbanization affects the CO 2 emissions of central heating systems at high spatial resolution in China has not been fully studied before. Based on satellite-observed NPP-VIIRS nighttime light (NTL) data, we develop a 5 km x 5 km annual CO 2 emission inventory for coal boilers, thermal power plants (TPPs), and natural gas boilers in China's central heating systems for the period 2012-2017 by using the geographical and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. It is observed that nonurban areas generated 2-4 times the CO 2 emissions of coal boilers in urban areas. The largest increments of CO 2 emissions of gas boilers are observed in urban areas of the eastern (6.80 times) and central regions (2.86 times) in 2013-2014, due to the clean heating policy in the "2 + 26" cities in China. The effects of urbanization on CO 2 emissions from natural gas boilers are approximately 2-3 times those of coal boilers, and the differences are largest in western cities with only minor differences in northeastern cities. Overall, our results will aid in designing low-carbon development goals and provide micro-level information on central heating facilities in urbanized and less developed regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Core Spray 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure core spray (HPCS) at eight U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPCS system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

System Study: Reactor Core Isolation Cooling 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the reactor core isolation cooling (RCIC) system at 28 U.S. commercial operating boiling water reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in both the RCIC system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2024

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hour, and failure data from calendar years 1998 to 2024 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period and yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Statistically significant decreasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 24-hour mission unreliability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Systems, methods, and computer media for battery system management and non-linear estimation of battery state of charge are provided herein. Battery data is received for a time period over which a battery system has operated. The battery data represents the actual performance of the battery system over the time period. Sub-periods of charging or discharging can be identified in the time period. For the sub-periods of time, a curve can be fit to the battery data. Using the curves for the battery data for the sub-periods of time, an expected performance of the battery system, over a range of states-of-charge, can be determined. Operating instructions for the battery system can be provided based on the expected performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Battery system management through non-linear estimation of battery state of charge

Crawford, Alasdair James↗

DOE OSTI2023

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2022

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 62 U.S. commercial operating nuclear reactors. New Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models with the most recent SPAR parameter update results were used in this report. Demand, run hours, and failure data from calendar years 1998–2022 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations Industry Reporting and Information System. The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10-year period while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. Highly statistically significant increasing trends were identified in both the HPSI system start-only unreliability and 8-hour mission unreliability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Evaluation of Cyber-Attacks on Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are not only exposed to passive threats (e.g., physical faults) but also active threats such as cyber-attacks launched on the network-based control systems. The impact of cyber-attacks on GEB operation are not yet fully understood, especially as regards the performance of grid services. To quantify the consequences of cyber-attacks on GEBs, this paper proposes a modeling and simulation framework that includes different cyber-attack models and key performance indexes to quantify the performance of GEB operation under cyber-attacks. The framework is numerically demonstrated to model and evaluate cyber-attacks such as data intrusion attacks and Denial-of-Service attacks on a typical medium-sized office building that uses the BACnet/IP protocol for communication networks. Simulation results show that, while different types of attacks could compromise the building systems to different extents, attacks via the remote control of a chiller yield the most significant consequences on a building system’s operation, including both the building service and the grid service. It is also noted that a cyber-attack impacts the building systems during the attack period as well as the post-attack period, which suggests that both periods should be considered to fully evaluate the consequences of a cyber-attack.

Fu, Yanyang↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vibrational Spectroscopy of Hexahalo Complexes

Halogenated inorganic complexes A x [MHal y ] (A = alkali metal or alkaline earth, M = transition or main group metal, x = 1–3, and y = 2–9) are an archetypal class of compounds that provide entry points to large areas of inorganic and physical chemistry. All of the hexahalo complexes adopt an octahedral, O h , symmetry (or nearly so). Consequently, one of the bending modes is forbidden in both the infrared and Raman spectra. In the solid state, many of the complexes crystallize in the cubic space group Fm3̅m, which preserves the octahedral symmetry. Even for those that are not cubic, the octahedral symmetry of the [MHal 6 ] n- ion is largely retained and, to a good approximation, so are the selection rules. In the present work, we show that by using the additional information provided by neutron vibrational spectroscopy, in combination with conventional optical spectroscopies, we can generate complete and unambiguous assignments for all the modes. Comparison of the experimental and calculated transition energies for the systems where periodic-density functional theory was possible (i.e., those for which the crystal structure is known) shows that the agreement is almost quantitative. We also provide a linear relationship that enables the prediction of the forbidden mode.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Learning in continuous action space for developing high dimensional potential energy models

Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches that combine a tree search with deep learning have found remarkable success in searching exorbitantly large, albeit discrete action spaces, as in chess, Shogi and Go. Many real-world materials discovery and design applications, however, involve multi-dimensional search problems and learning domains that have continuous action spaces. Exploring high-dimensional potential energy models of materials is an example. Traditionally, these searches are time consuming (often several years for a single bulk system) and driven by human intuition and/or expertise and more recently by global/local optimization searches that have issues with convergence and/or do not scale well with the search dimensionality. Here, in a departure from discrete action and other gradient-based approaches, we introduce a RL strategy based on decision trees that incorporates modified rewards for improved exploration, efficient sampling during playouts and a “window scaling scheme" for enhanced exploitation, to enable efficient and scalable search for continuous action space problems. Using high-dimensional artificial landscapes and control RL problems, we successfully benchmark our approach against popular global optimization schemes and state of the art policy gradient methods, respectively. We demonstrate its efficacy to parameterize potential models (physics based and high-dimensional neural networks) for 54 different elemental systems across the periodic table as well as alloys. We analyze error trends across different elements in the latent space and trace their origin to elemental structural diversity and the smoothness of the element energy surface. Broadly, our RL strategy will be applicable to many other physical science problems involving search over continuous action spaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Positional ordering induced by dynamic steric interactions in superparamagnetic rods

The dynamic motion produced by precessing magnetic fields can drive matter into far-from-equilibrium states. We predict 1D periodic ordering in systems of precessing rods when magnetic interactions between rods remain insignificant. The precession angle of the rods is completely determined by the field's precession angle and the ratio of the field's precession frequency and the characteristic response frequency of the rods. Here, we develop a molecular dynamics model that explicitly calculates magnetic interactions between particles, and we also simulate rods in the limit of a strong and fast precessing magnetic field where inter-rod magnetic interactions are negligible, using a purely steric model. Our simulations show how steric interactions drive the rods from a positionally disordered phase (nematic) to a layered (smectic) phase. As the rod precession angle increases, the nematic–smectic transition density significantly decreases. The minimization of unfavorable steric interactions also induces phase separation in binary mixtures of rods of different lengths. This effect is general to any force that produces precession in elongated particles. This work will advance the understanding and control of out-of-equilibrium soft matter systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deconstructing dynamics of symmetry breaking

The Kibble–Zurek mechanism (KZM) successfully predicts the density of topological defects deposited by the phase transitions, but it is not clear why. Its key conjecture is that, near the critical point of the second-order phase transition, critical slowing down will result in a period when the system is too sluggish to follow the potential that is changing faster than its reaction time. The correlation length at the freeze-out instant $\hat{t}$ when the order parameter catches up with the posttransition broken symmetry configuration is then decisive, determining when the mosaic of broken symmetry domains locks in topological defects. To understand why the KZM works so well, we analyze the Landau–Ginzburg model and show why temporal evolution of the order parameter plays such a key role. In conclusion, the analytical solutions we obtain suggest experimentally accessible observables that can shed light on symmetry-breaking dynamics while testing the conjecture on which the KZM is based.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning enabled discovery of application dependent design principles for two-dimensional materials

Abstract The unique electronic and mechanical properties of two-dimensional (2D) materials make them promising next-generation candidates for a variety of applications. Large-scale searches for high-performing 2D materials are limited to calculating descriptors with computationally demanding first-principles density functional theory. In this work, we alleviate this issue by extending and generalizing crystal graph convolutional neural networks to systems with planar periodicity and train an ensemble of models to predict thermodynamic, mechanical and electronic properties. We carry out a screening of nearly 45,000 structures for two separate applications: mechanical strength and photovoltaics. By collecting statistics of the screened candidates, we investigate structural and compositional design principles that impact the properties of the structures surveyed. Our approach recovers some well-accepted design rules: hybrid organic-inorganic perovskites with lead and tin tend to be good candidates for solar cell applications and titanium based MXenes usually have high stiffness coefficients. Interestingly, other members of the group 4 elements also contribute to increasing the mechanical strength of MXenes. For all-inorganic perovskites, we discover some compositions that have not been deeply studied in the field of photovoltaics and thus open up paths for further investigation. We open-source the code-base to spur further development in this space.

Venturi, Victor (ORCID:0000000156727549)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Floquet Insulators and Lattice Fermions

Floquet insulators are periodically driven quantum systems that can host novel topological phases as a function of the drive parameters. These new phases exhibit features reminiscent of fermion doubling in discrete-time lattice fermion theories. We make this suggestion concrete by mapping the spectrum of a noninteracting (1+1)D Floquet insulator for certain drive parameters onto that of a discrete-time lattice fermion theory with a time-independent Hamiltonian. The resulting Hamiltonian is distinct from the Floquet Hamiltonian that generates stroboscopic dynamics. Finally, it can take the form of a discrete-time Su-Schrieffer-Heeger model with half the number of spatial sites of the original model, or of a (1+1)D Wilson-Dirac theory with one quarter of the spatial sites.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Temperature-dependent lattice dynamics in iridium

The characterization of simple elemental systems is key to benchmarking first-principles modeling of electronic and vibrational behaviors of materials. A large body of literature has been built for most elemental systems in the periodic table. However, surprisingly little neutron work has been performed to probe the vibrational properties of iridium, likely due to its large neutron absorption cross section. Nonetheless, iridium is of significant scientific and technological interest due to large relativistic electron effects and electron-phonon coupling, particularly in strongly correlated iridate compounds. In this paper, we report temperature-dependent inelastic neutron scattering measurements of the vibrational properties of iridium, from which we extract key thermodynamic properties. To overcome the challenge of the large neutron absorption of iridium, we developed a simple post-processing correction procedure. The measured densities of phonon states compare well with quasiharmonic density functional theory calculations, although the obtained experimental phonon Grüneisen parameters are much larger than expected, reaching as high as γ=4.5, indicating substantial anharmonicity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗