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Wilson, Robert M.

Publications and source records attributed to Wilson, Robert M..

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

The maximum amplitude for the next sunspot cycle is estimated on the basis of inferred statistical trends and associations from the last 12 cycles. Specific attention is given to the extrapolation of the inferred long-term upward trend against time of the maximum amplitude RM which is the maximum value of the smoothed sunspot number for a given cycle. Also examined in depth are the apparent inherent differences found in even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles. RM is plotted vs cycle number, and RM is plotted against RM for odd-following cycle pairs. RM values are shown to be greater than 110.6 for six of the last six sunspot cycles, and the trend suggests that cycle 23 should have RM of more than 150 particularly in light of the fact that the odd-following cycle is always larger than the even cycle. Evidence is shown to predict an RM of at least 176.4, making cycle 23 one of the largest of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar rotation and the sunspot cycle

Reexamination of the published sunspot rotation rates from Mount Wilson for the period from 1921 to 1982 suggests that the sun rotates more rapidly when there are fewer sunspots. This behavior is seen over the course of each cycle with the most rapid rotation usually observed at sunspot minimum. It is also seen in hemispheric differences with the southern hemisphere, having fewer spots, rotating more rapidly than the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, the rotation rate averaged over each cycle also shows that the sun rotates more rapidly during cycles with fewer sunspots and less sunspots area. This inverse correlation between sunspot area and rotation rate suggests that during the Maunder minimum the sun may have rotated slightly faster than is observed today.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the 'average rate of growth' in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, it is inferred that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 + or - 30 or 185 + or - 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10-21 from the two fits.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the behavior of the Dst geomagnetic index in the vicinity of magnetic cloud passages at earth

The geomagnetic response to magnetic clouds is investigated for the 34 magnetic clouds observed between 1973 and 1982, according to cloud type: southward turning clouds as compared to northward turning clouds (a southward turning cloud is one whose Bz near cloud onset at earth is directed northward, while a northward turning cloud is one whose initial Bz is directed southward). While, on average, the most negative Dst value associated with interplanetary magnetic clouds is the one for northward turning clouds, the difference in the depths of decrease (onset Dst value minus the most negative Dst value during cloud passage) for the two cloud types does not appear to be statistically important; hence, northward turning and southward turning clouds have depths of decrease of comparable size, differing primarily in the time of most negative Dst occurrence. For northward turning clouds, the most negative Dst value usually occurs within 12 hours of cloud onset at earth, while for southward turning clouds it is delayed until after 12 hours from cloud onset.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the average rate of growth in sunspot number and the size of the sunspot cycle

The average rate of growth in sunspot number over selected time intervals and the maximum average value as they both relate to the size of the cycle are examined, in order to predict the size of cycle 22. The predictions are compared with those of Wilson (1990) to determine whether a consensus is apparent. The average rate of growth during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, defined as the difference in smoothed sunspot number values between elapsed time t and sunspot minimum divided by t, is shown to correlate with the size of the sunspot cycle, especially for t greater or equal to 18 months. The maximum value of the average rate of growth is also shown to highly correlate (r = 0.98) with the size of the cycle. Using 4.5 as the maximum value of the average rate of growth, a lower limit for R(M) is estimated. The results show that the findings are consistent with the previous single variate predictions for R(M) for cycle 22.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the level of skill in predicting maximum sunspot number - A comparative study of single variate and bivariate precursor techniques

The level of skill in predicting the size of the sunspot cycle is investigated for the two types of precursor techniques, single variate and bivariate fits, both applied to cycle 22. The present level of growth in solar activity is compared to the mean level of growth (cycles 10-21) and to the predictions based on the precursor techniques. It is shown that, for cycle 22, both single variate methods (based on geomagnetic data) and bivariate methods suggest a maximum amplitude smaller than that observed for cycle 19, and possibly for cycle 21. Compared to the mean cycle, cycle 22 is presently behaving as if it were a +2.6 sigma cycle (maximum amplitude of about 225), which means that either it will be the first cycle not to be reliably predicted by the combined precursor techniques or its deviation relative to the mean cycle will substantially decrease over the next 18 months.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the statistics of El Nino occurrences and the relationship of El Nino to volcanic and solar/geomagnetic activity

El Nino is conventionally defined as an anomalous and persistent warming of the waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific, having onset usually in Southern Hemispheric summer/fall. Some of the statistical aspects of El Nino occurrences are examined, especially as they relate to the normal distribution and to possible associations with volcanic, solar, and geomagnetic activity. With regard to the very strong El Nino of 1982 to 1983, it is noted that, although it may very well be related to the 1982 eruptions of El Chichon, the event occurred essentially on time (with respect to the past behavior of elapsed times between successive El Nino events; a moderate-to-stronger El Nino was expected during the interval 1978 to 1982, assuming that El Nino occurrences are normally distributed, having a mean elapsed time between successive onsets of 4 years and a standard deviation of 2 years and a last known occurrence in 1976). Also, although not widely recognized, the whole of 1982 was a record year for geomagnetic activity (based on the aa geomagnetic index, with the aa index registering an all time high in February 1982), perhaps, important for determining a possible trigger for this and other El Nino events. A major feature is an extensive bibliography (325 entries) on El Nino and volcanic-solar-geomagnetic effects on climate. Also, included is a tabular listing of the 94 major volcanic eruptions of 1835 to 1986.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A prediction for the maximum phase and duration of sunspot cycle 22

A projected value of the maximum amplitude of sunspot cycle 22 is used to predict the ascent, maximum phase, and length of the cycle. It is suggested that cycle 22 will have a lower maximum amplitude than cycle 21. This would make cycle 22 a 'negative-valued' maximum amplitude first-difference cycle with an ascent with a median value of 4 years. Cycle 22 is predicted to be a long-period cycle with a length in the range of 138 + or - 8 months. It is concluded that cycle 22 will probably peak sometime in the latter half of 1990 or the first half of 1991 and that it will not end until early to mid 1998.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

A prediction for the size of sunspot cycle 22

Based on 'annual' averages, a bivariate analysis of the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle against its minimum amplitude and the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index (in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum) results in a fit that closely matches the observable record. The bilinear fit has a high coefficient of correlation (r = 0.982) and a small standard deviation (s = 9.5), suggesting that it may be useful for predicting the size of a sunspot cycle 3 to 4 years before maximum amplitude occurrence. Applying the fit to cycle 22, the annual average of maximum amplitude is found to be 92 + or - 19 (equivalent to 96 + or - 20 in terms of the 13-month running mean or smoothed sunspot number).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

On the long-term secular increase in sunspot number

A two-parameter secular fit is extended to the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers over the entire cycle, R(sum), and the mean sunspot number for the cycle, R(mean). Both R(sum) and R(mean) are shown to be highly correlated with the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle, R(max). Application of the theory to cycle 22 indicates that the present cycle will have an R(max) of 74 + or - 49.0.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

The paper examines the relationship between the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle and the rate of rise during the ascending phase. It is found that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the second half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a correlation coefficient of r = 0.9 and a standard error Syx less than about 20.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Bimodality and the Hale cycle

Evidence is provided of a modulation of between 20 and 24 yr for the Hale cycle, and comparison of consecutive pairs of cycles strongly suggests that even-numbered cycles are preferentially paired with odd-numbered following cycles. The results indicate that cycles 22 and 23 form a new cyle pair. The sum of monthly mean sunspot numbers over consecutively paired sunspot cycles for Hale cycle 12 is found to be about 19,100 + or - 3000.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Solar activity, magnetic clouds, and geomagnetic storms

Associational aspects of magnetic clouds and solar activity, and of magnetic clouds and geomagentic storms are described. For example, recent research has shown associations to exist between the launch of magnetic clouds directed Earthward from the Sun and, in particular, two forms of solar activity: flare-related, type II metric radio bursts and disappearing filaments (prominences). Furthermore, recent research has shown an association to exist between the onset of magnetic clouds on Earth and the initiation of geomagnetic storms. Based on these findings, STIP Intervals XV-XIX are examined for possible occurrences of Earthward-directed magnetic clouds.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the distribution of sunspot cycle periods

A comparison is made between the observed distribution of sunspot cycle periods and distributions based on uniform, normal, and bimodal distributions. The bimodal distribution, composed of short-period and long-period cycles, is found to best describe the observed distribution. Compared to the normal distribution for the most reliably determined cycles (cycles 8-20), the bimodal distribution has a residual (sum of squares of differences) that is about 86 percent smaller. Means for short-period and long-period cycles are estimated to be 122 + or - 4 months and 140 + or - 5 months, respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Statistical aspects of solar flares

A survey of the statistical properties of 850 H alpha solar flares during 1975 is presented. Comparison of the results found here with those reported elsewhere for different epochs is accomplished. Distributions of rise time, decay time, and duration are given, as are the mean, mode, median, and 90th percentile values. Proportions by selected groupings are also determined. For flares in general, mean values for rise time, decay time, and duration are 5.2 + or - 0.4 min, and 18.1 + or 1.1 min, respectively. Subflares, accounting for nearly 90 percent of the flares, had mean values lower than those found for flares of H alpha importance greater than 1, and the differences are statistically significant. Likewise, flares of bright and normal relative brightness have mean values of decay time and duration that are significantly longer than those computed for faint flares, and mass-motion related flares are significantly longer than non-mass-motion related flares. Seventy-three percent of the mass-motion related flares are categorized as being a two-ribbon flare and/or being accompanied by a high-speed dark filament. Slow rise time flares (rise time greater than 5 min) have a mean value for duration that is significantly longer than that computed for fast rise time flares, and long-lived duration flares (duration greater than 18 min) have a mean value for rise time that is significantly longer than that computed for short-lived duration flares, suggesting a positive linear relationship between rise time and duration for flares. Monthly occurrence rates for flares in general and by group are found to be linearly related in a positive sense to monthly sunspot number. Statistical testing reveals the association between sunspot number and numbers of flares to be significant at the 95 percent level of confidence, and the t statistic for slope is significant at greater than 99 percent level of confidence. Dependent upon the specific fit, between 58 percent and 94 percent of the variation can be accounted for with the linear fits. A statistically significant Northern Hemisphere flare excess (P less than 1 percent) was found, as was a Western Hemisphere excess (P approx 3 percent). Subflares were more prolific within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent), while flares of H alpha importance or = 1 were more prolific near the limbs greater than 45 deg from central meridian; P approx 2 percent). Two-ribbon flares were more frequent within 45 deg of central meridian (P less than 1 percent). Slow rise time flares occurred more frequently in the western hemisphere (P approx 2 percent), as did short-lived duration flares (P approx 9 percent), but fast rise time flares were not preferentially distributed (in terms of east-west or limb-disk). Long-lived duration flares occurred more often within 45 deg 0 central meridian (P approx 7 percent). Mean durations for subflares and flares of H alpha importance or + 1, found within 45 deg of central meridian, are 14 percent and 70 percent, respectively, longer than those found for flares closer to the limb. As compared to flares occurring near cycle maximum, the flares of 1975 (near solar minimum) have mean values of rise time, decay time, and duration that are significantly shorter. A flare near solar maximum, on average, is about 1.6 times longer than one occurring near solar minimum.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Geomagnetic response to magnetic clouds

Results of superimposed epoch analyses of hourly values of the equatorial Dst geomagnetic index and the B(x) component of the interplanetary magnetic field are given for 19 magnetic clouds. Results show statistical associations between magnetic clouds and geomagnetic storms, and between clouds without preceding shocks and gradual commencements. It was found that 75 percent of the clouds had a maximum Dst of less than -30 gammas, and that 95 percent of the clouds had a maximum Dst of less than about -16 gammas. In the main phase and recovery phase of geomagnetic storms, the Dst index simultaneously decreases to a large negative value at the onset of a large sustained southward magnetic field, and recovery starts when the magnetic field becomes northward.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

On 'Bimodality of the solar cycle' and the duration of cycle 21

Data from the well-observed cycles 8-20 are used to study the duration of cycle 21 and the bimodality of the solar cycle which is clearly seen in the scatter diagrams of descent versus ascent durations. A linear fit for long-period cycles suggests that cycle 21 will have a 141-month cycle duration. Like cycle 11, cycle 21 is found to occur on the downward envelope of the sunspot number curve, yet to be associated with an upward first difference in amplitude. Similarities between the two cycles suggest that cycle 21 may also have an extended tail of sustained, low smoothed sunspot number, with the cycle 22 minimum occurring either in late 1987 or early 1988.

Wilson, Robert M.↗