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Toon, O. B.

Publications and source records attributed to Toon, O. B..

At least 73 records · Page 4

Further Discussion: Parametric Study of Wind Generated Supermicron Particle Effects in Large Fires

In their reply (Porch et al., 1987) to our comments (Turco et al., 1987) on their smoke-scavenging-by-dust paper, Porch et al. attempt to justify a number of parameter assumptions in their original article, again revealing the extreme nature of those assumptions, particularly in the situation where all are taken simultaneously. In critiquing Porch et al.'s calculations, have not applied "opinion", but rather physical reality and common sense expressed through basic experimental results and logical physical bounds. A few examples of the unrealistic conditions required by the Porch et al. scavenging scheme, as described in their paper and comments, should suffice here. ) Porch et al. have fabricated a "fetch" region for dust particles in large fire plumes that logically must extend over an area up to 50 times greater than the fire area itself. Alternatively, they have invoked significant "necking down' of the fire plume, so that its cross-sectional area is at most a few percent of the fire area. Such severe constriction is seen only in very small fires with strong, organized vorticity, and then only over a limited plume rise region. No "fetch" has ever been noted in any large-scale fires we have observed, or for which accounts are available. Indeed, as we deduced in our original comments, complete dust scavenging even within the fire zone would probably occur less than 10% of the time for large urban fires.

Toon, O. B.↗

Characteristics of polar stratospheric clouds during the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole

Measured properties of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds are described, and the possible relationship between the clouds and the formation of the ozone hole is considered. It is shown that the ozone hole develops and the clouds dissipate in the same place and at the same time. There may be a causal relationship between cloud particle evaporation and ozone depletion. A heterogeneous mechanism involving chemical reactions in the cloud droplets is suggested.

Hamill, Patrick↗

A hybrid model of the CO2 geochemical cycle and its application to large impact events

The effects of a large asteriod or comet impact on modern and ancient marine biospheres are analyzed. A hybrid model of the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle, which is capable of calculating the concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, ocean, and sedimentary rocks, is described. The differences between the Keir and Berger (1983) model and the hybrid model are discussed. Equilibrium solutions are derived for the preindustrial atmosphere/ocean system and for a system similar to that of the late Cretaceous Period. The model data reveal that globl darkening caused by a stratospheric dust veil could destroy the existing phytoplankton within a period of several weeks or months, nd the dissolution of atmospheric NO(x) compounds would lower the pH of ocean surface waters and release CO2 into the atmosphere. It is noted that the surface temperatures could be increased by several degrees and surface oceans would be uninhabitable for calcaerous organisms for approximately 20 years.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Nuclear winter - Three-dimensional simulations including interactive transport, scavenging, and solar heating of smoke

A reexamination is conducted of the 'nuclear winter' hypothesis with a three-dimensional global model modified to allow for localized injection of smoke, its transport by the simulated winds, its absorption of sunlight, and its removal by model-simulated precipitation. Smoke injected into the troposphere is driven upward by solar heating. The tropopause, initially above the smoke, reforms below the heat smoke layer and separates it from precipitation below. Although much smoke is scavenged while the thermal structure is being altered, the residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased. Particularly for July conditions, a longer-lasting 'nuclear winter' effect is observed than was found in earlier modeling studies in which normal tropospheric residence times were assumed. In January the smaller solar flux in the northern hemisphere allows faster removal of smoke than in July. Significant cooling of the northern hemisphere continents is predicted; its dependence on season and injected smoke mass is described.

Malone, R. C.↗

Climate changes associated with nuclear war

Nuclear war, featuring explosion of half the world arsenal of nuclear weapons, would cause urban and forest fires that would inject 20-650 megatons of smoke into the atmosphere. The Northern Hemisphere optical depth would increase to between 0.5-14. All models indicate an increase in optical depths, a large net radiation gain in the smoke layer, and an antigreenhouse effect at the surface. Significant global cooling would proceed, transforming the global climate to a large degree toward that of an airless world. Persisting deficiencies in the models are identified, noting research areas which would improve the accuracies of the predictions.

Toon, O. B.↗

Influence of solar heating and precipitation scavenging on the simulated lifetime of post-nuclear war smoke

The behavior of smoke injected into the atmosphere by massive fires that might follow a nuclear war was simulated. Studies with a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model showed that heating of the smoke by sunlight would be important and might produce several effects that would decrease the efficiency with which precipitation removes smoke from the atmosphere. The heating gives rise to vertical motions that carry smoke well above the original injection height. Heating of the smoke also causes the tropopause, which is initially above the smoke, to reform below the heated smoke layer. Smoke above the tropopause is physically isolated from precipitation below. Consequently, the atmospheric residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased over the prescribed residence times used in previous models of nuclear winter.

Malone, R. C.↗

Ozone, dust, smoke and humidity in nuclear winter

Recent correspondence on nuclear winter is commented on. Reasons are given for why the Tunguska meteor explosion may not be useful in calibrating the effects of a major nuclear exchange. The relationship between the optical depth of an aerosol cloud, the composition of the cloud, and its effect on sunlight intensity and climate are clarified. The significance of the Tambora eruption of 1815 and of historical fires for the nuclear winter theory are briefly discussed. The dispersion of smoke plumes from large fires is addressed, and water condensation and smoke scavenging are considered.

Turco, R. P.↗

Global transport of atmospheric smoke following a major nuclear exchange

A fully interactive zonally symmetric general circulation model is used to simulate the transport and evolution of a massive smoke cloud that is likely to form in the atmosphere following a major nuclear war. The presence of such a cloud significantly alters the simulated circulation and the subsequent transport of the smoke particles themselves. While the model indicates a tendency for interhemispheric exchange, the most immediate effect is that the radiatively active particles are carried into the stratosphere by the generation of strong vertical motions and intense convection regardless of their initial injection altitudes.

Haberle, R. M.↗

The climatic effects of nuclear war

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Turco, R. P.↗

Large, solid particles in the clouds of Venus - Do they exist?

The evidence for solid mode 3 particles in the clouds of Venus is reexamined. The sampling characteristics of the cloud particle size spectrometer (LCPS) are reviewed, and reasons are pointed out for believing that relatively small differences in interpreting the measurements of this instrument could produce systematic errors. It is shown that all of the Pioneer Venus and Venera measurements can be understood if it is assumed that the large particles observed by the LCPS form the tail of the mode 2, H2SO4 size distribution.

Toon, O. B.↗

Nuclear winter - Global consequences of multiple nuclear explosions

The results of a computerized simulation of the potential global environmental effects of dust and smoke clouds that would be generated by a nuclear war are presented. Short term effects of blast, fire, and radiation are neglected in the series of physical models that include a nuclear war scenario, a particle microphysics model, and a radiative convective model. Account is taken of the altitude-dependent dust, smoke, radioactivity, and NO(x) injections, the temporal evolution of dust and smoke clouds, land and ocean environments, and temperature contrasts. A nuclear exchange would produce thousands of individual smoke and dust clouds rising up to 30 km altitude in the midlatitudes. The smoke, dust, and radioactive debris would cover the entire midlatitudes within 1-2 weeks. The smoke would arise from conflagrations of forests, suburbs, and urban areas. Obscuration of sunlight would induce subfreezing temperatures for several months, disruption of the global circulation patterns, and the arrival of a nuclear winter, followed and accompanied by radioactive fallout, pyrogenic air pollution, and UV-B flux enhancements. It is estimated that a total of only 100 Mtons would be sufficient to plunge the Northern Hemisphere summer to subfreezing temperatures lasting months. Since the probable exchange in a nuclear war would exceed 5000 Mtons, it is expected that many species, including humans, may not survive the war.

Turco, R. P.↗

The El Chichon volcanic cloud - An introduction

Background information on the El Chichon volcanic cloud is provided, and coordinated observational campaigns designed to investigate the El Chichon cloud are described. An introduction is then given to the set of papers about the El Chichon cloud in Geophysical Research Letters, volume 10, number 11. Topics discussed include in situ measurements of the size distribution of the volcanic aerosols, high resolution size measurements, the spatial and temporal evolution of the cloud, and the optical properties of the cloud.

Danielsen, E. F.↗

A two-dimensional model simulation of the EL Chichon volcanic eruption cloud

Using a two-dimensional model of sulfate photochemistry, transport, and aerosol microphysics, a 2-year period following the eruptions of El Chichon have been simulated. Present calculations suggest that the residence time of the cloud in the stratosphere exceeds 2 years. The model reproduces the observed optical depth, lidar backscatter, and infrared extinction coefficients, if about 10 megatonnes of SO2 are injected. The major deficiency of the model is a somewhat too rapid transport.

Capone, L. A.↗

Lightning generation in planetary atmospheres

The possibilities of lightning generation on other planets are considered, and the basic conditions that exist in terrestrial clouds during lightning discharges and the various theories of charge separation are reviewed. The properties of terrestrial clouds that produce lightning, the properties of lightning itself, and the fairweather field are first reviewed. The general requirements and the different proposed charging mechanisms for electrification of terrestrial clouds are discussed. The mechanisms of electrical breakdown and whistler production are considered, and recent observations of extraterrestrial lightning and of clouds on other planetary bodies are summarized. Circumstances likely to account for lightning activity on Jupiter and Venus and for electrical activity on Mars and in the rings of Saturn are discussed.

Borucki, W. J.↗

The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens - Physical and chemical processes in the stratospheric clouds

The large and diverse set of observational data collected in the high-altitude plumes of the May 18, May 25, and June 13, 1980 eruptions is organized and analyzed with a view to discerning the processes at work. The data serve to guide and constrain detailed model simulations of the volcanic clouds. For this purpose, use is made of a comprehensive one-dimensional model of stratospheric sulfate aerosols, sulfur precursor gases, and volcanic ash and dust. The model takes into account gas-phase and condensed-phase (heterogeneous) chemistry in the clouds, aerosol nucleation and growth, and cloud expansion. Computational results are presented for the time histories of the gaseous species concentrations, aerosol size distributions, and ash burdens of the eruption clouds. Also investigated are the long-term buildup of stratospheric aerosols in the Northern Hemisphere and the persistent effects of injected chlorine and water vapor on stratospheric ozone. It is concluded that SO2, water vapor, and ash were probably the most important substances injected into the stratosphere by the Mount St. Helens volcano, both with respect to their widespread effects on composition and their effect on climate.

Turco, R. P.↗

Environmental effects of an impact-generated dust cloud - Implications for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinctions

A model of the evolution and radiative effects of a debris cloud from a hypothesized impact event at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary suggests that the cloud could have reduced the amount of light at the earth's surface below that required for photosynthesis for several months and, for a somewhat shorter interval, even below that needed for many animals to see. For 6 months to 1 year, the surface would cool; the oceans could cool only a few degrees Celsius at most, but the continents might cool a maximum of 40 Kelvin. Extinctions in the ocean may have been caused primarily by the temporary cessation of photosynthesis, but those on land may have been primarily induced by a combination of lowered temperatures and reduced light.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Venus -Mesospheric hazes of ice, dust, and acid aerosols

Four distinct types of particles are suggested to be present in the upper atmosphere of Venus. The lowest and densest haze may consist of a submicron sulfuric acid aerosol which extends above the cloud tops, up to about 80 km, representing an extension of the upper cloud deck. Temperature structure measurements in the 70-120 km altitude range indicate the occasional appearance of two independent water ice layers, of which the lower may form between 80 and 100 km and is probably the detached haze layer noted in high contrast limb photography. A nucleation of this ice layer on sulfuric acid aerosols is hypothesized. Temperatures of the Venus mesopause, near 120 km altitude, are frequently cold enough to allow ice nucleation on meteoric dust or ambient ions, yielding a haze (analogous to noctilucent clouds on earth) which is expected to be tenuous to the point of optical invisibility.

Turco, R. P.↗

The clouds are hazes of Venus

Pioneer Venus and Venera probe data for the clouds of Venus are considered. These clouds consist of a main cloud deck at 45-70 km altitude, with thinner hazes above and below, although the microphysical properties of the main cloud are further subdivided into upper, middle and lower cloud levels. Much of the cloud exhibits a multimodal particle size distribution, with the mode most visible from the earth being H2SO4 droplets having 2-3 micron diameters. Despite variations, the vertical structure of the clouds indicates persistent features at sites separated by years and by great distances. The clouds are more strongly affected by radiation than by latent heat release, and the small particle size and weak convective activity observed are incompatible with lightning of cloud origin.

Esposito, L. W.↗