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Jordan, Dirk

Publications and source records attributed to Jordan, Dirk.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Solar System Modeling at NREL

This workshop walked through a description and demonstration of solar modeling data and tools available from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The topics included: The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) - updates and ways to access this sub-hourly gridded resource data; PVWatts - recent updates to include the NSRDB - opening up much of North and South America for analysis; System Advisor Model (SAM) - SAM is now open source, includes PV + batteries, bifacial panels, and much more; REOpt Lite - an online tool for quick PV and battery sizing for commercial buildings; PV Component LCOE Calculator - Allows for module costing based on components; A detailed demonstration of the SAM model for modeling a PV system with a battery and some of the questions that can be answered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Proceedings of the 2018 PV Reliability Workshop, 27 February - 1 March 2018, Lakewood, Colorado

NREL hosts an annual Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop (PVRW) so solar technology experts can share information leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace. This document collects the presentations and posters from the 2018 PV Reliability Workshop, which was hosted by NREL from Tuesday, February 27, to Thursday, March 1, 2018.

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Correlation of Qualification and Accelerated Testing with Field Degradation

Qualification testing of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules per IEC 61215 standard encompasses a set of well-defined accelerated stress tests (irradiation, environmental, mechanical and electrical) with strict pass/fail criteria based on functionality/performance, electrical and mechanical safety, and visual requirements. The qualification testing does not identify all the possible reliability failures or durability issues witnessed in the actual field. However, it does identify the major/catastrophic design quality issues (infant mortality), which could occur early in a module’s field life. Unfortunately, in the industry, there is no consensus-based standard or protocol available to validate manufacturers’ warranty period claims based on the end-of-life wear-out failure mechanisms. Being able to predict the field degradation rates and lifetime using mode-specific accelerated tests on moderately field-aged modules, for example 10 years, for certain commonly occurring degradation modes would be a powerful contribution to all the stakeholders of the PV industry. There is a need to formulate guidelines to find the correlation of accelerated testing with field degradation for individual degradation modes observed in the field. Potential approaches to fulfill this need were experimented in this project and are presented in this report. Two of the most commonly seen degradation modes – encapsulant browning and solder bond thermomechanical fatigue – are addressed in this report through presenting the accelerated testing methods and physical modelling approaches. Two accelerated test methods (UV and thermal cycling) were designed to induce the wear-out mechanisms in the modules and not infant mortality failures. To focus on the wear-out failure modes, the tests were performed on field-aged modules, instead of fresh modules, with known degradation rates and degradation modes. The degradation rates were measured based on the degradation rates of individual cell parameters (short-circuit current, I sc and series resistance, R s ) instead of the degradation rate of maximum power (P max ) which cannot be used to study any specific/limited degradation mode as the P max degradation could be caused by many different degradation modes. The key characteristic parameter considered for encapsulant discoloration and solder bond degradation is I sc and R s , respectively. The developed physical models/equations relating the testing degradation data and field weather data were utilized to determine the acceleration factor (AF) and to predict the degradation rate for a specific degradation mode of PV modules installed in two different climates, Arizona (hot) and New York (cold). The predicted degradation rates for encapsulant browning and solder bond degradation have also been validated against the actual measured field degradation rates. UV testing cost reduction: To determine acceleration factor, single UV chamber was used for accelerated UV testing at three different temperatures simultaneously, instead of three chambers for three temperatures (or one chamber sequentially which is an extremely time-consuming approach). A passive heating approach was successfully used to achieve and maintain multiple temperatures in the accelerated UV chamber. Foam insulation boards of varying thicknesses were utilized to obtain three different temperatures for UV testing. However, these foam materials tend to disintegrate in the presence of moisture. To alleviate this problem, silicone heating blankets with temperature controls and humidifier can be used if the UV testing is to be performed under hot-humid conditions instead of conventional hot-dry conditions. Thermal cycling testing cost reduction: Single thermal cycling chamber was used for accelerated thermal cycling testing at three different upper temperatures simultaneously, instead of three chambers for three upper temperatures (or one chamber sequentially which is an extremely time-consuming approach). An active heating approach based on silicone heating blankets was successfully used to achieve and maintain multiple upper temperatures in the accelerated thermal cycling chamber. Such blankets provide stable temperature control and thereby more reliable and repeatable for replicate experiments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

RdTools: An Open Source Python Library for PV Degradation Analysis

RdTools is a set of Python tools for analysis of photovoltaic data. In particular, PV production data is evaluated over several years to obtain rates of performance degradation over time. Rdtools can handle both high frequency (hourly or better) or low frequency (daily, weekly, etc.) datasets. Best results are obtained with higher frequency data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Robust PV Degradation Methodology and Application

The degradation rate plays an important role in predicting and assessing the long-term energy generation of PV systems. Many methods have been proposed for extracting the degradation rate from operational data of PV systems, but most of the published approaches are susceptible to bias due to inverter clipping, module soiling, temporary outages, seasonality, and sensor degradation. In this manuscript, we propose a methodology for determining PV degradation leveraging available modeled clear-sky irradiance data rather than site sensor data, and a robust year-over-year (YOY) rate calculation. We show the method to provide reliable degradation rate estimates even in the case of sensor drift, data shifts, and soiling. Compared with alternate methods, we demonstrate that the proposed method delivers the lowest uncertainty in degradation rate estimates for a fleet of 486 PV systems.

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Qualification Testing Versus Quantitative Reliability Testing of PV - Gaining Confidence in a Rapidly Changing Technology: Preprint

Continued growth of PV system deployment would be enhanced by quantitative, low-uncertainty predictions of the degradation and failure rates of PV modules and systems. The intended product lifetime (decades) far exceeds the product development cycle (months), limiting our ability to reduce the uncertainty of the predictions for this rapidly changing technology. Yet, business decisions (setting insurance rates, analyzing return on investment, etc.) require quantitative risk assessment. Moving toward more quantitative assessments requires consideration of many factors, including the intended application, consequence of a possible failure, variability in the manufacturing, installation, and operation, as well as uncertainty in the measured acceleration factors, which provide the basis for predictions based on accelerated tests. As the industry matures, it is useful to periodically assess the overall strategy for standards development and prioritization of research to provide a technical basis both for the standards and the analysis related to the application of those. To this end, this paper suggests a tiered approach to creating risk assessments. Recent and planned potential improvements in international standards are also summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

RdTools™ [SWR-17-40]

RdTools™ provides a set of tools for quantifying the degradation of photovoltaic systems and modules.

Deceglie, Michael↗

Chapter 3: Photovoltaic Module Stability and Reliability

Profits realized from investment in photovoltaic will benefit from decades of reliable operation. Service life prediction through accelerated tests is only possible if indoor tests duplicate power loss and failure modes observed in fielded systems. Therefore, detailing and quantifying power loss and failure modes is imperative. In the first section, we examine recent trends in degradation rates, the gradual power loss observed for different technologies, climates and other significant factors. In the second section, we provide a summary of the most commonly observed failure modes in fielded systems.

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Modeling Current Transfer from PV Modules Based on Meteorological Data

Current transferred from the active cell circuit to ground in modules undergoing potential-induced degradation (PID) stress is analyzed with respect to meteorological data. Duration and coulombs transferred as a function of whether the module is wet (from dew or rain) or the extent of uncondensed surface humidity are quantified based on meteorological indicators. With this, functions predicting the mode and rate of coulomb transfer are developed for use in estimating the relative PID stress associated with temperature, moisture, and system voltage in any climate. Current transfer in a framed crystalline silicon module is relatively high when there is no condensed water on the module, whereas current transfer in a thin-film module held by edge clips is not, and displays a greater fraction of coulombs transferred when wet compared to the framed module in the natural environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Progress & Frontiers in PV Performance

PowerPoint slides for a presentation given at Solar Power International 2016. Presentation includes System Advisor Model (SAM) introduction and battery modeling, bifacial PV modules and modeling, shade modeling and module level power electronics (MLPE), degradation rates, and PVWatts updates and validation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Special Testing for Modules Deployed in Hot Use Environments - Are We Doing This in a Low-Cost Way?

The proposed new IEC standard will address the test temperature requirements in IEC 61215 (module design), IEC 61730 (module safety), IEC 62790 (junction box safety) and IEC 62852 (connectors), and will provide guidelines to modify temperature limits in four existing standards to better describe module performance in hotter climates. This workshop includes four presentations: Special Testing for Modules Deployed in Hot Use Environments - Are We Doing This in a Low-Cost Way?, Experimental Evidence, Why the highest temperatures are the most stressful to PV modules during thermal cycling, and Safety Aspects for Modules Deployed in Hot Use Environments.

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On the Path to SunShot. The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

This report examines the remaining challenges to achieving the competitive photovoltaic (PV) costs and large-scale deployment envisioned under the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot Initiative. Solar-energy cost reductions can be realized through lower PV module and balance-of-system (BOS) costs as well as improved system efficiency and reliability. Numerous combinations of PV improvements could help achieve the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) goals because of the tradeoffs among key metrics like module price, efficiency, and degradation rate as well as system price and lifetime. Using LCOE modeling based on bottom-up cost analysis, two specific pathways are mapped to exemplify the many possible approaches to module cost reductions of 29%-38% between 2015 and 2020. BOS hardware and soft cost reductions, ranging from 54%-77% of total cost reductions, are also modeled. The residential sector's high supply-chain costs, labor requirements, and customer-acquisition costs give it the greatest BOS cost-reduction opportunities, followed by the commercial sector, although opportunities are available to the utility-scale sector as well. Finally, a future scenario is considered in which very high PV penetration requires additional costs to facilitate grid integration and increased power-system flexibility--which might necessitate even lower solar LCOEs. The analysis of a pathway to 3-5 cents/kWh PV systems underscores the importance of combining robust improvements in PV module and BOS costs as well as PV system efficiency and reliability if such aggressive long-term targets are to be achieved.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On the Path to SunShot - The Role of Advancements in Solar Photovoltaic Efficiency, Reliability, and Costs

Although tremendous progress has been made in reducing the cost of PV systems, additional LCOE reductions of 40%–50% between 2015 and 2020 will be required to reach the SunShot Initiative’s targets (see Woodhouse et al. 2016). Understanding the tradeoffs between installed prices and other PV system characteristics—such as module efficiency, module degradation rate, and system lifetime—are vital. For example, with 29%-efficient modules and high reliability (a 50-year lifetime and a 0.2%/year module degradation rate), a residential PV system could achieve the SunShot LCOE goal with modules priced at almost $1.20/W. But change the lifetime to 10 years and the degradation rate to 2%/year, and the system would need those very high-efficiency modules at zero cost to achieve the same LCOE. Although these examples are extreme, they serve to illustrate the wide range of technological combinations that could help drive PV toward the LCOE goals. SunShot’s PV roadmaps illustrate specific potential pathways to the target cost reductions.

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Overview of Field Experience - Degradation Rates & Lifetimes

The way a PV module fails may depend not only on its design and the materials used in its construction, but also on the weather it experiences, the way it is mounted, and the quality control during its manufacture. This presentation gives an overview of Field Experience - what degradation rates and what lifetimes are being observed in various regions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Reliability and Geographic Trends of 50,000 Photovoltaic Systems in the USA

This paper presents performance and reliability data from nearly 50,000 photovoltaic (PV) systems totaling 1.7 gigawatts installed capacity in the USA from 2009 to 2012 and their geographic trends. About 90% of the normal systems and about 85% of all systems, including systems with known issues, performed to within 10% or better of expected performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Photovoltaic Module Qualification Plus Testing

This report summarizes a set of test methods that are in the midst of being incorporated into IEC 61215 for certification of a module design or other tests that go beyond certification to establish bankability.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.

We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗