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Atlas, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Atlas, R..

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of ocean surface wind fields using SEASAT-A scatterometer data

In addition to the SEASAT forecast impact studies previously conducted with the GLA model, a study was also made of the global analyses of surface wind stress, wind stress curl, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, which are generated as a by-product of the assimilation process. Both instantaneous analyses of these quantities and 15-day averages of each of these fields were found to be in good qualitative agreement with published fields.

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Forecast Impact Simulation Studies

A series of simulation experiments is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. For these studies an advanced analysis/forecast simulation system was developed which provides for a more realistic assessment of the impact of proposed observing systems than was possible in earlier studies. This system consists of four elements: (1) An atmospheric model integration to provide a complete record of the true state of the atmosphere (called nature); (2) a conventional data assimilation cycle that is used as the control experiment; (3) a satellite data assimilation that differs from the control in also including fabricated satellite data incorporated in the forecast-analysis cycle; and (4) forecasts produced from both control and satellite initial conditions. Comparison of these forecasts with nature provides an assessment of the impact of satellite data.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Objective Determination of Heat Wave Patterns

A simple index was developed in order to objectively characterize a heat wave pattern in either analyses or forecasts of 500 mb height. 500 mb height was chosen because this parameter is usually among the most accurate fields predicted by numerical models. In addition, it is highly correlated with the surface air temperature on many time scales. The heat index IN is designed to be applied to any region of interest and to be used for any objectively analyzed data and specifically those of NWP models.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments on the Summer 1980 Heat Wave and Drought

During the summer of 1980, a prolonged heat wave and drought affected the United States. A preliminary set of experiments has been conducted to study the effect of varying boundary conditions on the GLA model simulation of the heat wave. Five 10-day numerical integrations with three different specifications of boundary conditions were carried out: a control experiment which utilized climatological boundary conditions, an SST experiment which utilized summer 1980 sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, but climatological values elsewhere, and a Soil Moisture experiment which utilized the values of Mintz-Serafini for the summer, 1980. The starting dates for the five forecasts were 11 June, 7 July, 21 July, 22 August, and 6 September of 1980. These dates were specifically chosen as days when a heat wave was already established in order to investigate the effect of soil moistures or North Pacific sea-surface temperatures on the model's ability to maintain the heat wave pattern. The experiments were evaluated in terms of the heat wave index for the South Plains, North Plains, Great Plains and the entire U.S. In addition a subjective comparison of map patterns has been performed.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Simulation studies of the impact of future observing systems on weather prediction

The features and preliminary results from a simulation system being implemented to develop realistic estimates of the impacts future data acquisition systems will have on large-scale numerical weather simulation are described. The new instruments may include advanced passive IR and microwave satellite sensors, as well as active scatterometer and lidar sounders. A main goal of the impact study is to identify those sensor systems which will provide the most benefit. The realism of the study is being enhanced by assimilating as much real-world data as possible and generating global weather maps for comparison with maps generated on the bases on the projected new, higher resolution data. Early results have indicated a preference for higher resolution wind data than for temperature data for making 1-5 day forecasts. The prime instrument candidate for collecting the data is lidar, provided the sensor resolution design goals are met.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A numerical investigation of the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The diagnostic framework being utilized by researchers at NASA-Goddard in a numerical analysis of the draught which occurred in the U.S. in 1980 described, along with preliminary results. Attention is focused on the wave structure at 500 mb and comparisons of this structure with NMC data from 1963-77 to define conditions during the initiation, maintenance and decay of a draught. Attempts are also being made to develop a simple index for the diagnosis of heat patterns using as input data from the 500 mb analysis. Early studies involving the examination of the effects of varying boundary conditions have revealed a positive contribution from the soil moisture fields and a negative contribution from the North Pacific sea surface temperature during the event. Studies are continuing to characterize phenomena during draught initiation and decay.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Observing system simulation experiments at NASA. Goddard Space Flight Center

A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA), to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of future observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies. Following a brief review of previous simulation studies and real data impact tests, the methodology for the current simulation system will be described. Results from an assessment of the realism of the simulation system and of the potential impact of advanced observing systems on numerical weather prediction and preliminary results utilizing this system will be presented at the conference.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Forecast Impact of Components of the FGGE Observing System

Experiments have been conducted to assess the summer and winter forecast impact of the FGGE system, and of its main observing components: temperature sounding data derived from the TIROS-N polar orbiting satellite, cloud track winds determined from geostationary satellite observations and drifting buoy data which were collected by satellite during FGGE. The Analysis/Forecast System used has a number of improvements upon the system utilized by Halen et al. (1982) for the FGGE Special Observing Period-1 (SOP-1). Several modifications were made in the analysis scheme, the most important being the interpolation of the analysis minus 6 h forecast deviations rather than of the analyzed fields themselves. The forecast model is still the 4 deg lat, 5 deg lon and 9 vertical levels GLAS Fourth Order GCM with several minor corrections implemented in the physics and numerics. The improved vertical interpolation in the analysis resulted in better assimilation of rawinsonde data, which has more vertical structure than satellite data. As a result, there was an improvement of the forecasts derived from conventional data only, and, consequently, a small reduction of the positive impact of satellite data from that obtained by Halem et al. (1982).

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

ECMWF/NMC/GLAS Joint Simulation Study

Simulation experiments to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observing systems on large scale numerical weather prediction are conducted. Instruments to be simulated include current conventional and satellite observing systems, advanced passive sounders such as the AMTS and AMSU, and active LIDAR systems for the measurement of wind, temperature and humidity profiles. The potential impact of individual observing systems, the effect of coverage, resolution, accuracy and assimilation methodology are studied.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Prediction of the President's Day Cyclone

Numerical-diagnostic studies of major anomalous weather events are being conducted in order to investigate the relevant physical processes associated with the events and the role of satellite observing systems in the analysis and prediction of these phenomena. One component of this study is concerned with the numerical prediction of intense coastal and oceanic cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this research are: (1) to assess the accuracy of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences model predictions of cyclogenesis, (2) to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the prediction, and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the initial conditions. It was shown that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short-wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection, upper level divergence, and upward vertical motion in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large-scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of Seasat scatterometer winds on the Navy's operational model

The question of whether Seasat scatterometer wind data can have a positive impact on an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is examined. Comparisons are made between assimilations and forecasts made with the Navy's operational forecast and analysis system (NOGAPS) when Seasat data are included or excluded. S1 scores and rms differences show that Seasat data had a negligible effect on NWP forecasts made from the Navy's model in both the northern and the southern hemisphere. A global subjective analysis of all of the forecasts shows similar results.

Duffy, D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale analysis and forecast experiments with wind data from the Seasat A scatterometer

A series of data assimilation experiments is performed to assess the impact of Seasat A satellite scatterometer (SASS) wind data on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) model forecasts. The SASS data are dealiased as part of an objective analysis system utilizing a three-pass procedure. The impact of the SASS data is evaluated with and without temperature soundings from the NOAA 4 Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer (VTPR) instrument in order to study possible redundancy between surface wind data and upper air temperature data. In the northern hemisphere the SASS data are generally found to have a negligible effect on the forecasts. In the southern hemisphere the forecast impact from SASS data is somewhat larger and primarily beneficial in the absence of VTPR data. However, the inclusion of VTPR data effectively eliminates the positive impact over Australia and South America. This indicates that SASS data can be beneficial for numerical weather prediction in regions with large data gaps, but in the presence of satellite soundings the usefulness of SASS data is significantly reduced.

Baker, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

First global analysis of SEASAT scatterometer winds and potential for meteorological research

The first global wind fields from SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) data were produced. Fifteen days of record are available on tape, with unique wind directions indicated for each observation. The methodology of the production of this data set is described, as well as the testing of its validity. A number of displays of the data, on large and small scales, analyzed and gridded, are provided.

Peteherych, S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

A quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic case study of the effect of satellite sounding data assimilation on model cyclone prediction

A quasi-Lagrangian diagnostic study was performed to compare weather forecast accuracy with and without use of satellite data. Attention was focused on the mass and angular momentum budgets of the cyclone. The diagnostic study isolated the effects of physical processes within a cyclone and the effects of transport processes moving with the cyclone. Satellite data furnished different initialization values for horizontal mass and eddy angular momentum. Colder temperatures and weaker stabilities in the NW quadrant lower layers in the budget volume and increased stability in the middle and lower layers of another quadrant were obtained when the satellite data were considered. The addition of satellite data was concluded to have enhanced the accuracy of the forecast.

Vergin, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Simulation studies of proposed observing systems and their impact on numerical weather prediction

A series of realistic simulation studies is being conducted as a cooperative effort between the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) to provide a quantitative assessment of the potential impact of proposed observation systems on large scale numerical weather prediction. A special objective of this project is to avoid the unrealistic character of earlier simulation studies.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Evaluation of glass model precipitation forecasts for North America during SOP-1

A study has been made of the accuracy of the GLAS fourth order forecast model's precipitation forecasts over North America during the first Special Observing Period (SOP-1) of FGGE and of the impact of the FGGE special observing systems on these forecasts. Fourteen 120 h predictions were generated using the coarse 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude version of the GLAS model from both the FGGE and NOSAT assimilation cycles. These forecasts were then verified against a detailed set of precipitation observations. Separate verifications were performed for precipitation accumulations or = .01 in., or = .1 in., and or = 1 in. occuring in 6, 12 and 24 time periods. In addition, three different methods of verification were applied. In the first method, model precipitation forecasts are verified against the greatest precipitation amount observed within a 4 deg latitude by 5 deg longitude gridbox centered on each gridpoint. For the prediction at a gridpoint to be verified only one observation within the gridbox is required. In the second method, a weighted mean of the closest observations to the gridpoint is used, provided that at least two observations on opposite sides of a gridpoint are available. For the third method, the model precipitation forecasts were interpolated to the observation locations.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

FGGE data impact studies in the Southern Hemisphere

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of the FGGE SOS on the GLAS analyses and forecasts in the Southern Hemisphere, and to evaluate the relative importance of its components, and in particular, the impact of the loss of surface buoys. This discussion is limited to the forecast impact of the FGGE system upon a region between 28 deg S and 56 deg S, 50 deg W-80 W which includes essentially the southern cone of South America. Although forecast skill is verified against the NMC analysis, which used only VTPR but no TIROS-N data in the Southern Hemisphere, enough conventional data exists over this region to avoid biased verifications.

Kalnay, E.↗