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NASA NTRS2023

Impacts of Estimated Plume Rise on PM 2.5 Exceedance Prediction During Extreme Wildfire Events: A Comparison of Three Schemes (Briggs, Freitas, and Sofiev)

Plume height plays a vital role in wildfire smoke dispersion and the subsequent effects on air quality and human health. In this study, we assess the impact of different plume rise schemes on predicting the dispersion of wildfire air pollution and the exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) during the 2020 western United States wildfire season. Three widely used plume rise schemes (Briggs, 1969; Freitas et al., 2007; Sofiev et al., 2012) are compared within the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling framework. The plume heights simulated by these schemes are comparable to the aerosol height observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO). The performance of the simulations with these schemes varies by fire case and weather conditions. On average, simulations with higher plume injection heights predict lower aerosol optical depth (AOD) and surface PM 2.5 concentrations near the source region but higher AOD and PM 2.5 in downwind regions due to the faster spread of the smoke plume once ejected. The 2-month mean AOD difference caused by different plume rise schemes is approximately 20 %–30 % near the source regions and 5 %–10 % in the downwind regions. Thick smoke blocks sunlight and suppresses photochemical reactions in areas with high AOD. The surface PM 2.5 difference reaches 70 % on the West Coast of the USA, and the difference is lower than 15 % in the downwind regions. Moreover, the plume injection height affects pollution exceedance (>35 µg m−3) predictions. Higher plume heights generally produce larger downwind PM 2.5 exceedance areas. The PM 2.5 exceedance areas predicted by the three schemes largely overlap, suggesting that all schemes perform similarly during large wildfire events when the predicted concentrations are well above the exceedance threshold. At the edges of the smoke plumes, however, there are noticeable differences in the PM 2.5 concentration and predicted PM 2.5 exceedance region. For the whole period of study, the difference in the total number of exceedance days could be as large as 20 d in northern California and 4 d in the downwind regions. This disagreement among the PM 2.5 exceedance forecasts may affect key decision-making regarding early warning of extreme air pollution episodes at local levels during large wildfire events.

Yunyao Li↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing Flash Characteristics in Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events Between 1995 and 2020 Within the Contiguous United States

Twenty-six years of lightning data were paired with over 68,000 lightning-initiated wildfire (LIW) reports to understand lightning flash characteristics responsible for ignition in between 1995 and 2020. Results indicate that 92% of LIW were started by negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes and 57% were single stroke flashes. Moreover, 62% of LIW reports did not have a positive CG within 10 km of the start location, contrary to the science literature’s suggestion that positive CG flashes are a dominant fire-starting mechanism. Nearly 1/3rd of wildfire events were holdovers, meaning one or more days elapsed between lightning occurrence and fire report. However, fires that were reported less than a day after lightning occurrence statistically burned more acreage. Peak current was not found to be a statistically significant delineator between fire starters and non-fire starters for -CGs but was for positive CGs. Results highlighted the need for reassessing the role of positive CG lightning and subsequently long continuing current in wildfire ignition started by lightning. One potential outcome of this study’s results is the development of real-time tools to identify ignition potential during lightning events to aid in fire mitigation efforts.

Christopher J Schultz↗
NASA NTRS2019

Spatial, Temporal, and Electrical Characteristics of Lightning in Reported Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events

Analysis was performed to determine whether a lightning flash could be associated with every reported lightning-initiated wildfire that grew to at least 4 km(exp 2). In total, 905 lightning-initiated wildfires within the Continental United States (CONUS) between 2012 and 2015 were analyzed. Fixed and fire radius search methods showed that 81–88% of wildfires had a corresponding lightning flash within a 14 day period prior to the report date. The two methods showed that 52–60% of lightning-initiated wildfires were reported on the same day as the closest lightning flash. The fire radius method indicated the most promising spatial results, where the median distance between the closest lightning and the wildfire start location was 0.83 km, followed by a 75th percentile of 1.6 km and a 95th percentile of 5.86 km. Ninety percent of the closest lightning flashes to wildfires were negative polarity. Maximum flash densities were less than 0.41 flashes km(exp 2) for the 24 h period at the fire start location. The majority of lightning-initiated holdover events were observed in the Western CONUS, with a peak density in north-central Idaho. A twelve day holdover event in New Mexico was also discussed, outlining the opportunities and limitations of using lightning data to characterize wildfires.

Flash density↗
NASA NTRS2023

Three-Wavelength Approach for Aerosol-Cloud Discrimination in the Sage III/ISS Aerosol Extinction Dataset

The tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is dominated by aerosols and clouds affecting Earth’s radiation budget and climate. Thus, satellites’ continuous monitoring and identification of these layers is crucial for quantifying their radiative impact. However, distinguishing between aerosols and clouds is challenging, especially under the perturbed UTLS conditions during post-volcanic eruptions and wildfire events. Aerosol-cloud discrimination is primarily based on their disparate wavelength-dependent scattering and absorption properties. In this study, we use aerosol extinction observations in the tropical (15°N-15°S) UTLS from June 2017 to February 2021, available from the latest generation of the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instrument-SAGE III onboard the International Space Station (ISS) to study aerosols and clouds. During this period, the SAGE III/ISS provided better coverage over the tropics at additional wavelength channels (relative to previous SAGE missions) and witnessed several volcanic and wildfire events that perturbed the tropical UTLS. We explore the advantage of having an extinction coefficient at an additional wavelength channel (1550 nm) from the SAGE III/ISS in aerosol-cloud discrimination using a method based on thresholds of two extinction coefficient ratios, R1R1 (520 nm/1020 nm) and R2R2 (1020 nm/1550 nm). This method was proposed earlier by Kent et al. [Appl. Opt. 36, 8639 (1997) [CrossRef] ] for the SAGE III-Meteor-3M but was never tested for the tropical region under volcanically perturbed conditions. We call this method the Extinction Color Ratio (ECR) method. The ECR method is applied to the SAGE III/ISS aerosol extinction data to obtain cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients, cloud-top altitude, and seasonal cloud occurrence frequency during the entire study period. Cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficient obtained using the ECR method revealed the presence of enhanced aerosols in the UTLS following volcanic eruptions and wildfire events consistent with the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and space-borne lidar-Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). The cloud-top altitude obtained from the SAGE III/ISS is within 1 km of the nearly co-located observations from OMPS and CALIOP. In general, the seasonal mean cloud-top altitude from the SAGE III/ISS events peaks during the December, January, and February months, with sunset events showing higher cloud tops than the sunrise events, indicating the seasonal and diurnal variation of the tropical convection. The seasonal altitude distribution of cloud occurrence frequency obtained from the SAGE III/ISS also agrees well with CALIOP observations within 10%. We show that the ECR method is a simple approach that relies on thresholds independent of the sampling period, providing cloud-filtered aerosol extinction coefficients uniformly for climate studies irrespective of the UTLS conditions. However, since the predecessor of SAGE III did not include a 1550 nm channel, the usefulness of this approach is limited to short-term climate studies after 2017.

Clouds Aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2019

Four Years of Airborne Measurements of Wildfire Emissions in California, with a Focus on the Evolution of Emissions During the Soberanes Megafire

Biomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles which can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, characterizing wildfire emissions and their evolution is vital. In this work we report in situ airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) from nine wildfire events in California between 2013 and 2016, which were sampled as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) based at NASA Ames Research Center. One of those fires, the Soberanes Megafire, began on 22 July 2016 and burned for three months. During that time, five flights were executed to sample emissions near and downwind of the Soberanes wildfire. In situ data are used to determine enhancement ratios (ERs), or excess mixing ratio relative to CO2, as well as assess O3 production from the fire. Changes in the emissions as a function of fire evolution are explored. Air quality impacts downwind of the fire are addressed using ground-based monitoring site data, satellite smoke products, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model.

Iraci, Laura T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of Wildfire Emissions in California: Analysis of Airborne Measurements of Trace Gases from 2013 to 2016

Biomass burning, which includes wildfires, prescribed, and agricultural fires, is an important source of trace gases and particles, and can influence air quality on a local, regional, and global scale. Biomass burning emissions are an important source of several key trace gases including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). With the threat of wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, the importance of characterizing wildfire emissions is vital. In this work we characterize trace gas emissions from 9 wildfire events in California between 2013 – 2016, in some cases with multiple measurements performed during different burn periods of a specific wildfire. During this period airborne measurements of CO2, CH4, water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX). Located in the Bay Area of California, AJAX is a joint effort between NASA Ames Research Center and H211, LLC. AJAX makes in-situ airborne measurements of trace gases 2-4 times per month, resulting in 229 flights to date since 2011. Results presented include emission ratios (ER) of trace gases measured by AJAX during fire flights, and comparisons of ERs are made for each fire, which differ in time, location, burning intensity, and fuel type. We also use our airborne measurements to compare with photochemical grid model results to assess model approximations of plume transport and chemical evolution from select wildfires.

Parworth, Caroline L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.

Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila National Forest (Gila NF), wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances, such as the historic Whitewater Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013), have raised concerns over post-fire flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding connections between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure conservation of the watershed. The Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project provided insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and determined if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial impact on vegetation regeneration. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000-2019, this project used Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM precipitation, along with ancillary data from USGS stream gauges and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3. Based on these data, the team identified burn areas that received restorative treatments and compared Normalized Burn Ratio for different land cover types to better inform land management decisions. Additionally, the team analyzed the relationship between precipitation and streamflow from stream gauges to investigate the impact wildfires have on hydrology within the watershed.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS2020

Gila Water Resources II: Using Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires have the potential to cause devastating and long-lasting impacts on ecological systems. In the Gila NF, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years. These disturbances such as the historic Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013) have raised concerns over post-fire soil erosion, flooding, debris flows, and vegetation recovery. Understanding the connection between burn events and ecological functions is crucial for developing effective land management practices within the Gila NF that ensure the conservation of the watershed. Our Gila Water Resources II team worked in partnership with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) US Forest Service’s (USFS) Gila National Forest and Region 3. This project was designed to provide insight into the influence of wildfires on increased flooding events and to determine if restoration efforts in the Gila NF are having a beneficial and noticeable impact on recovery. The goals of this project included generating data-supported end products to inform land management decisions, including the prioritization of specific regions and time scales for post-fire restoration efforts. To understand recovery trends and hydrologic impact in the Gila NF between 2000 and 2020, this project used NASA EO and ancillary data, including, but not limited to, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), USGS stream gauge data, and data provided by USDA USFS’s Gila National Forest and Region 3.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Role of Antecedent Soil Moisture and Vegetation Stress in Lightning-Initiated Wildfires

Lightning-caused wildfires are a small percentage of all wildfire events within the Conterminous U.S. (CONUS), but they account for over 56% of the acreage burned. The atmospheric conditions favoring wildfire and rapid growth are well understood: large dewpoint depressions, unstable planetary boundary layer, strong winds, etc. However, antecedent land surface conditions affecting dead and live fuel moisture is more difficult to quantify. This study examines over 20 years of antecedent land surface, vegetation stress, and wildfire characteristic data associated with nearly 77,000 lightning-initiated wildfires from the U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Database. We will invoke two in-house databases generated by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center: an observations-driven, climatological run of the Noah land surface model within the NASA Land Information System (i.e., SPoRT-LIS) to depict soil moisture deficits / anomalies, and a satellite-constrained Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) product to denote areas of stressed vegetation. We will mine these datasets associated with lightning-caused (and null) events to determine important relationships, distributions, and delineators that correspond to elevated threat areas for lightning-initiated wildfires.

Wildfire↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-CF Model Assessment of PM2.5 During Wildfires: Inferring the Impact of PM2.5 Exposure on Adverse Respiratory & Cardiovascular Conditions

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) can aggravate pre-existing respiratory and cardiovascular conditions. When PM2.5 is inhaled it can cause damage to the lungs such as reduced lung function and shortness of breath. After being inhaled PM2.5 can enter the bloodstream and cause harm to the heart. One major natural source of PM2.5 exposure is from wildfire smoke. The particulates within the smoke from the wildfires can spread from the initial source region, potentially impacting communities both near and far. During and after wildfire events, PM2.5 levels can exceed the WHO air quality guidelines (10 gm^3 annual mean; 25 gm^3 daily mean), becoming hazardous to an individual's health. Global models can be used to simulate the emission and transport of these particulates and subsequently they can be valuable to air quality forecasting in highly polluted areas. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) version 5 Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) system has been used to produce near-real time air quality forecasts of atmospheric composition at a high global resolution of 25 km. The GEOS-CF system utilizes the GEOS weather forecast model coupled with GEOS-Chem (version 11) chemistry module to provide analyses and forecasts of various toxic air pollutants, including PM2.5. The GEOS-CF simulated high levels of PM2.5 (40 gm^3 to 250 gm^3 ), exceeding the WHO guidelines, during multiple recent regional and global wildfire seasons, including the 2017 Seattle, WA and Los Angeles, CA wildfire seasons, and biomass burning events in India. Furthermore, the GEOS-CF simulated PM2.5 applied to a human health assessment model, BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, version 1.3), estimates the impact on adverse respiratory health conditions due to PM2.5 exposure from wildfires. The GEOS-CF predicted PM2.5 during the wildfire season with the corresponding BenMAP results provides an assessment of the human health impact of PM2.5 exposure.

Saunders, Emily↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing Wildfires in Western US.: A Cloud-based Case Study for Interdisciplinary Research using NASA Resources

This presentation will demonstrate a case study of interdisciplinary research done in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform, in addition to in the local machine. We conduct data analysis next to data by leveraging various cloud-based data in NASA Earthdata Cloud, which are distributed by different missions/NASA Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), and cloud computing resources at NASA. For instance, we directly access multiple datasets stored in the AWS Simple Storage Service (S3) buckets using a Python Jupyter notebook through a JupyterHub interface hosted in AWS (without having to download data), and conduct data analysis next to data in the cloud. We will also show how to share the research results following Open Source policy. This case study characterizes the change in wildfire events in the western United States during the past 20 years. In particular, we focus on the wildfires in California in 2021, one of the most severe wildfire years occurring in the most recent 20 years in California. We will analyze the possible causes of wildfires, such as drought conditions and climate variability, and examine the impacts of wildfires on air quality and atmospheric composition, and on land cover. We will examine the data distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), including aerosols and meteorological data from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), precipitation from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP), and aerosol index from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). We also utilize the data distributed by the Physical Oceanography (PO) DAAC, such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data from the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST), and the data distributed by Land Processes (LP) DAAC, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRS2024

Multi-Agency Ensemble Forecast of Wildfire Air Quality in the United States: Toward Community Consensus of Early Warning

Wildfires pose increasing risks to human health and properties in North America. Due to large uncertainties in fire emission, transport, and chemical transformation, it remains challenging to accurately predict air quality during wildfire events, hindering our collective capability to issue effective early warnings to protect public health and welfare. Here we present a new real-time Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES) by leveraging various wildfire smoke forecasts from three U.S. federal agencies (NOAA, NASA, and Navy). Compared to individual models, the HAQES ensemble forecast significantly enhances forecast accuracy. To further enhance forecasting performance, a weighted ensemble forecast approach was introduced and tested. Compared to the unweighted ensemble mean, the multilinear regression weighted ensemble reduced fractional bias by 34% in the major fire regions, false alarm rate by 72%, and increased hit rate by 17%. Finally, we improved the weighted ensemble using quantile regression and weighted regression methods to enhance the forecast of extreme air quality events. The advanced weighted ensemble increased the PM2.5 exceedance hit rate by 55% compared to the ensemble mean. Our findings provide insights into the development of advanced ensemble forecast methods for wildfire air quality, offering a practical way to enhance decision-making support to protect public health.

Yunyao Li↗