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The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology

Effects of Adverse Weather on Aerodynamics [Les Effets des Conditions Météorologiques Adverses sur I'Aérodynamique]

The 19 technical papers developed for the AGARD Fluid Dynamics Panel (FDP) Specialists' Meeting on "Effects of Adverse Weather on Aerodynamics" held from 28th April—i May 1991 in Toulouse, France are documented in this Conference Proceedings. In addition, introductory material from the Program Chairman and the results of the Round Table Discussion held after the meeting are also included. The FDP organized this meeting to provide a timely review of the progress being made in advancing the state-of-the-art of predicting, simulating, and measuring the effects of icing, anti-icing fluids, and various forms of precipitation on the aerodynamic characteristics of flight vehicles. Topics included results from both theoretical and experimental programs and material related to procedures and regulations for certification and operation. International participation for the meeting included authors from eight nations and representatives from most of the 16 NATO nations.

Precipitation - meteorology

Measure sea level air pressure from space to improve knowledge and forecasting of the atmospheric state

Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) and analysis models require globally-observed meteorological data including sea-level pressure (SLP) for accurate operations. Up until now, SLP has only been measured by in situ instruments from ships, buoys, and ocean platforms. These measurements are sparse with large gaps, leaving models starved of this critical information to constrain the atmospheric state. Recent advancements in differential absorption radar (DAR) provide a path to close this critical observation gap through spaceborne observations in the coming decade, improving the analysis models relied upon for atmospheric research and the weather forecasts depended upon daily for public safety and commerce.

Matthew L Walker McLinden

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning

NASA Weather Balloon Demonstration of an Additively Manufactured Antenna

Additive manufacturing (AM) enables low-cost, lightweight, and geometrically flexible antennas for rapid deployment missions. This work reports a left-hand circularly polarized magneto-electric dipole printed on a Radix dielectric with inkjet silver metallization and demonstrated as a process replacement for NASA weather-balloon RF hardware. By combining substrate fabrication and metallization, AM provides value for unrecoverable or field-replaceable systems. A physics based verification workflow links AM-specific material behavior to electromagnetic performance and yields bounded total, radiation, and mismatch efficiencies. Standard surface-impedance and roughness models failed to reproduce the frequency-dependent radiation loss observed in printed inks, underscoring the need for AM-specific conductor parameterization. Mission testing confirmed TDRSS link closure from NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility and validated a repeatable print–measure–fly workflow for bounding RF performance and qualifying AM antennas for field use.

Peter Moschetti

NASA Weather Balloon Demonstration of an Additively Manufactured Antenna

Additive manufacturing (AM) enables low-cost, lightweight, and geometrically flexible antennas for rapid deployment missions. This work reports a left-hand circularly polarized magneto-electric dipole printed on a Radix dielectric with inkjet silver metallization and demonstrated as a process replacement for NASA weather-balloon RF hardware. By combining substrate fabrication and metallization, AM provides value for unrecoverable or field-replaceable systems. A physics based verification workflow links AM-specific material behavior to electromagnetic performance and yields bounded total, radiation, and mismatch efficiencies. Standard surface-impedance and roughness models failed to reproduce the frequency-dependent radiation loss observed in printed inks, underscoring the need for AM-specific conductor parameterization. Mission testing confirmed TDRSS link closure from NASA’s Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility and validated a repeatable print–measure–fly workflow for bounding RF performance and qualifying AM antennas for field use.

Peter Moschetti

GeoStorm Beacon Design Reference Mission (DRM) and Technology Drivers

A Design Reference Mission (DRM) for a NOAA Space Weather monitoring platform that provides warning times greater than 20 minutes with a 10-year operational timeline is presented. The summary of the DRM includes technology drivers for a subscale flight demonstration to reduce risk for the operational mission.

Solar Sails

GOPEX at the Starfire Optical Range

The Starfire Optical Range successfully conducted laser upink experiments to the Galileo spacecraft during the early morning hours of December 9, 10, 11, and 12, 1992, when the spacecraft was at ranges between 700,000 and 3 million km from Earth. Analysts at JPL have reported as many as 79 pulse detections by the spacecraft. The best weather conditions occurred on the second night when 37 pulses were detected with as many as five on one frame. Signal levels at the spacecraft generally agree with predictions.

R Q Fugate

Hardware Design for the Autonomous Visibility Monitoring (AVM) Observatory

The hardware for the three Autonomous Visibility Monitoring (AVM) observatories was redesigned. Changes in hardware design include electronics components, weather sensors, and the telescope drive system. Operation of the new hardware is discussed, as well as some of its features. The redesign will allow reliable automated operation.

K Cowles

Chapter 17 - Airframe Tests

This Section outlines the flight testing required to demonstrate that each of the systems installed in an aircraft is suitable for its operational role(s). It is primarily written from the perspective of a military Flight Test Engineer (FTE) but most of the contents are applicable to civil aircraft. Reflecting the introductory nature of this Volume, its scope is limited to systems normally found in all aircraft, e.g., fuel, hydraulic, electrical, etc., systems. The tests described below are usually made under the prevailing ambient conditions and, to assess behaviour under climatic extremes and in all weathers, further testing is conducted as described in Section 18. Tests of the propulsion system are covered separately in Section 23, but for systems associated with specific roles the reader should consult appropriate specialized sources.

J K Appleford

Sample Return Science by Hayabusa Near-Earth Asteroid Mission

Assigning the material species to each asteroid spectral type and finding out the corresponding meteorite category is crucial to make the global material map in the whole asteroid belt and to understand the evolution of the asteroid belt. Recent direct observations by spacecrafts are revealing new intriguing aspects of asteroids which cannot be obtained solely from ground-based observations or meteorite studies. However identification of the real material species constituting asteroids and their corresponding meteorite analogs are still ambiguous. Space weathering makes difficult to identify the true material, and there is still a great gap between the remote sensing data on the global surface and the local microscopic data from meteorites. Sample return from asteroids are inevitable to solve these problems. For this purpose sample return missions to asteroids belonging to various spectral classes are required. The HAYABUSA spacecraft (prelaunch name is MUSESC) launched last year is the first attempt on this concept. This report presents outline of the mission with special stress on its science.

A Fujiwara

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries.

Water Resources

Chapter 19A – Radar Cross Section

The material in this Section will provide the novice Flight Test Engineer (FTE) with a brief overview of the radar cross section (RCS) concept. Brief details of radar range descriptions, operations, target calibrations, and data reduction are included. It is noted that these range operations concentrate on the "static" test range rather than the much more sophisticated "dynamic" test range. The dynamic test range is what the FTE will probably work with. Radar reflectivity measurement has developed over the last two decades from a relatively simple endeavor involving the measurement of target RCS amplitude statistics to involving wide band, coherent systems that can measure high resolution images of targets as well as, in many cases, the polarization and phasing properties. This rapid growth in RCS technology has occurred because of the increased use of radar in today's commercial and military systems. In general, the goal for commercial systems is to enhance radar reflectivity, whereas the military goal is to reduce radar reflectivity. Also, classification and identification are important for military purposes because in adverse weather radar may be the only system that may be capable of separating enemy targets from friendly ones. This Section will discuss the fundamentals of RCS. Since the flight test techniques associated with RCS measurements are very similar to those of antenna pattern measurements, both will be presented at the same time in Section 19B Antenna Radiation Pattern Measurements.

Robert W Borek

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction

GOES-R Lithium-Ion Battery Life Test & Workhorse Battery Performance

The GOES R series lithium-ion battery life test results are presented for the next-generation GOES R series weather satellites. Lockheed Martin is under contract to NASA Goddard to build and deliver four GOES-R series satellites which are operated by NOAA. In addition, Lockheed Martin is required to build a GOES R series flight battery to flight drawings and processes and perform an accelerated geosynchronous earth-orbiting (GEO) life test consisting of 30 real-time eclipse seasons and 30 accelerated solstice seasons. The GOES R series batteries are designed and built by Saft America, Inc. Space and Defense Division in Cockeysville, MD with Saft VL48E cells. The GOES R series life test battery which has been built to flight drawings and processes has undergone 21 seasons of accelerated GEO testing (which is equivalent to over 10 years on-orbit). This presentation includes a description of the life test and latest test results through season 20. The life test battery capacity measurements prior to cycling and after seasons 4, 10, and 20 which have shown little or no change are summarized. In addition, the performance of the GOES R series workhorse batteries performance are presented. These GOES R series workhorse batteries are used during spacecraft testing and have shown no discernable capacity loss after 7 years of mostly ambient operation and cold storage since activation. An overview of the electrical power subsystem and battery charge is, also, addressed.

Tucker, Jon