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Constraints and Potentials of Future Irrigation Water Availability on Agricultural Production Under Climate Change

Freshwater availability is relevant to almost all socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate and demographic change and their implications for sustainability. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections driven by ensemble output from five global climate models. Our results suggest reasons for concern. Direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–2,600 Pcal (8–43% of present-day total). Freshwater limitations in some heavily irrigated regions could necessitate reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal. Freshwater abundance in other regions could help ameliorate these losses, but substantial investment in infrastructure would be required. We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400–1,400 Pcal (8–24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400–2,600 Pcal (24–43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20–60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600–2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.

agriculture↗

Trash-to-Gas: Converting Space Trash into Useful Products

NASA's Logistical Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project is a collaborative effort in which NASA is determined to reduce total logistical mass through reduction, reuse and recycling of various wastes and components of long duration space missions and habitats. LRR is focusing on four distinct advanced areas of study: Advanced Clothing System, Logistics-to-Living, Heat Melt Compactor and Trash to Supply Gas (TtSG). The objective of TtSG is to develop technologies that convert material waste, human waste and food waste into high-value products. High-value products include life support oxygen and water, rocket fuels, raw material production feedstocks, and other energy sources. There are multiple pathways for converting waste to products involving single or multi-step processes. This paper discusses thermal oxidation methods of converting waste to methane. Different wastes, including food, food packaging, Maximum Absorbent Garments (MAGs), human waste simulants, and cotton washcloths have been evaluated in a thermal degradation reactor under conditions promoting pyrolysis, gasification or incineration. The goal was to evaluate the degradation processes at varying temperatures and ramp cycles and to maximize production of desirable products and minimize high molecular weight hydrocarbon (tar) production. Catalytic cracking was also evaluated to minimize tar production. The quantities of CO2, CO, CH4, and H2O were measured under the different thermal degradation conditions. The conversion efficiencies of these products were used to determine the best methods for producing desired products.

Caraccio, Anne J.↗

Trash to Gas: Converting Space Trash into Useful Products

NASA's Logistical Reduction and Repurposing (LRR) project is a collaborative effort in which NASA is determined to reduce total logistical mass through reduction, reuse and recycling of various wastes and components of long duration space missions and habitats. LRR is focusing on four distinct advanced areas of study: Advanced Clothing System, Logistics-to-Living, Heat Melt Compactor and Trash to Supply Gas (TtSG). The objective of TtSG is to develop technologies that convert material waste, human waste and food waste into high-value products. High-value products include life support oxygen and water, rocket fuels, raw material production feedstocks, and other energy sources. There are multiple pathways for converting waste to products involving single or multi-step processes. This paper discusses thermal oxidation methods of converting waste to methane. Different wastes, including food, food packaging, Maximum Absorbent Garments (MAGs), human waste simulants, and cotton washcloths have been evaluated in a thermal degradation reactor under conditions promoting pyrolysis, gasification or incineration. The goal was to evaluate the degradation processes at varying temperatures and ramp cycles and to maximize production of desirable products and minimize high molecular weight hydrocarbon (tar) production. Catalytic cracking was also evaluated to minimize tar production. The quantities of C02, CO, CH4, and H20 were measured under the different thermal degradation conditions. The conversion efficiencies of these products were used to determine the best methods for producing desired products.

Trash-to-Gas↗

rHealth One Demonstration Aboard ISS: A Microfluidic Bioanalyzer Based on Sheath/Hydrodynamic Focusing Flow Cytometry

The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element aims to provide astronauts with the means for their own health monitoring, diagnosis, and treatment during exploration missions. As space flight ventures further from earth, the need for autonomous medical care increases under greater constraints on size, mass, and resources. One pillar for diagnosis that crew would be separated from is laboratory analysis. Even now on ISS, blood samples must be collected and returned to earth for testing. In response, ExMC is assessing how assays for hematology, bone health, radiation exposure etc. could be addressed through commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) and Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) funded bioanalyzers that are miniaturizing lab technology. Since missions will reach distances where there are no timely replacements, validation on the International Space Station (ISS) is a necessary part of that assessment. In partnership with NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Immunology Lab and the Research Operations and Integration (ROI) element, ExMC conducted a technology demonstration on ISS of the rHEALTH ONE, a flow cytometry based bioanalyzer, to assess future devices based on this design. In flow cytometry, there are predominantly three ways to focus the cells (or particles) into a single file stream: hydrodynamic focusing, microcapillary, and acoustic focusing. The rHEALTH ONE utilizes the commercial standard, sheath-based hydrodynamic focusing. rHEALTH itself represents both a company and a suite of medical tools NASA has funded through SBIR grants towards the development of a promising diagnosis instrument for exploration missions. rHEALTH ONE is the interim version of the technology, functional as a benchtop analyzer and test bed for the next generation of rHEALTH in development. Several modifications were made to the rHEALTH ONE analyzer for operation in microgravity. For function, fluid management was key. A sheath-based analyzer uses sheath fluid to flow the sample, cleaning fluid to prevent biological contamination, and a reservoir to collect the liquid waste. The rHEALTH ONE analyzer uses bottles dependent on gravity to separate the air and liquid pathways and keep the liquids contained. It uses only 1 psig of air pressure to directly push the liquid through the device, requiring little-to-no resistance at inlet and outlet. A microtubing assembly with self-sealing luer connectors was designed – featuring 0.014 mm thick durable medical balloons to hold water inside the supply bottles – to create safe containment and easy access for the crew while maintaining the analyzer’s function. For safety, copper tape was added to the interior of the plastic housing to reduce electromagnetic interference, fluid and electrical connections were secured against vibration and leaks, and gaps were further sealed to ensure containment of the optical block and lasers. Water as the sheath and cleaning fluid and TOX 0 samples were used to reduce the biohazard risk to the crew. In May 2022, European Space Agency astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti demonstrated the rHEALTH ONE aboard ISS for its sample loading, flow cytometry, and data collection capability in microgravity. The JSC Immunology Lab provided flow cytometry expertise, designed the sample test protocol, and manufactured and benchmarked the flight samples on a ‘gold-standard’ flow cytometer. The analyzer was primed with water, purged of air, and four calibration solutions of polystyrene microparticles were tested to characterize its performance. Tightly controlled procedures and excellent execution prevented air bubble interference during air/water separation, fluid transfer, sample mixing and loading. Data showed a slight increase in signal noise on 3 of 5 channels and an anomaly of fluorophores migrating in one sample (confirmed by JSC post-flight). Flight results correctly detected the change in sample, matched the analyzer’s ground performance, and were consistent with the gold-standard’s ground results. Although areas were noted for improvement, these outcomes signified complete mission success.

R. S. Miller↗

Hydrazines and carbohydrazides produced from oxidized carbon in earth's primitive environment

Whether abiological organic compounds can be formed from the interactions of energy sources with nitrogen, oxidized carbon and water is held to be of importance in geochemical models of the primordial earth atmosphere. It is reported that experiments using quenched spark discharges through molecular nitrogen on aqueous suspensions of CaCO3 and other reactants to simulate the hydrosphere/atmosphere interface yield hydrazine and carbohydrazine in significant but low yields. Such reactions in primitive aquatic environments may have supplied a pathway for chemical evolution and the origin of life, on a primitive earth in which fully oxidized states of carbon were available for the primary synthesis of organic matter.

Folsome, C. E.↗

Wall relaxation and the driving forces for cell expansive growth

When water uptake by growing cells is prevented, the turgor pressure and the tensile stress in the cell wall are reduced by continued wall loosening. This process, termed in vivo stress relaxation, provides a new way to study the dynamics of wall loosening and to measure the wall yield threshold and the physiological wall extensibility. Stress relaxation experiments indicate that wall stress supplies the mechanical driving force for wall yielding. Cell expansion also requires water absorption. The driving force for water uptake during growth is created by wall relaxation, which lowers the water potential of the expanding cells. New techniques for measuring this driving force show that it is smaller than believed previously; in elongating stems it is only 0.3 to 0.5 bar. This means that the hydraulic resistance of the water transport pathway is small and that rate of cell expansion is controlled primarily by wall loosening and yielding.

NASA Program Space Biology↗

Limitations in Representation of Physical Processes Prevents Successful Simulation of PM2.5 During KORUS-AQ

High levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in East Asia often exceed local air quality standards. Observations from the Korea United States-Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign in May and June 2016 showed that development of extreme pollution (haze) occurred through a combination of long-range transport and favorable meteorological conditions that enhanced local production of PM2.5. Atmospheric models often have difficulty simulating PM2.5 chemical composition during haze, which is of concern for the development of successful control measures. We use observations from KORUS-AQ to examine the ability of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to simulate PM2.5 composition throughout the campaign and identify the mechanisms driving the pollution event. At the surface, the model underestimates sulfate by -64% but overestimates nitrate by +36%. The largest underestimate in sulfate occurs during the pollution event, where models typically struggle to generate elevated sulfate concentrations due to missing heterogeneous chemistry in aerosol liquid water in the polluted boundary layer. Hourly surface observations show that the model nitrate bias is driven by an overestimation of the nighttime peak. In the model, nitrate formation is limited by the supply of nitric acid, which is biased by +100% against aircraft observations. We hypothesize that this is due to a large missing sink, which we implement here as a factor of five increase in dry deposition. We show that the resulting increased deposition velocity is consistent with observations of total nitrate as a function of photochemical age. The model does not account for factors such as the urban heat island effect or the heterogeneity of the built-up urban landscape resulting in insufficient model turbulence and surface area over the study area that likely results in insufficient dry deposition. Other species such as NH3 could be similarly affected but were not measured during the campaign. Nighttime production of nitrate is driven by NO2 hydrolysis in the model, while observations show that unexpectedly elevated nighttime ozone (not present in the model) should result in N2O5 hydrolysis as the primary pathway. The model is unable to represent nighttime ozone due to an overly rapid collapse of the afternoon mixed layer and excessive titration by NO. We attribute this to missing nighttime heating driving deeper nocturnal mixing that would be expected to occur in a city like Seoul. This urban heating is not considered in air quality models run at large enough scales to treat both local chemistry and long-range transport. Key model failures in simulating nitrate, mainly overestimated daytime nitric acid, incorrect representation of nighttime chemistry, and an overly shallow and insufficiently turbulent nighttime mixed layer, exacerbate the model’s inability to simulate the buildup of PM2.5 during haze pollution. To address the underestimate in sulfate most evident during the haze event, heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 is added to the model which previously only considered aqueous production of sulfate from SO2 in cloud water. Implementing a simple parameterization of this chemistry improves the model abundance of sulfate but degrades the SO2 simulation implying that emissions are underestimated. We find that improving model simulations of sulfate has direct relevance to determining local vs. transboundary contributions to PM2.5. During the haze pollution event, the inclusion of heterogeneous aerosol uptake of SO2 decreases the fraction of PM2.5 attributable to long-range transport from 66% to 54%. Locally-produced sulfate increased from 1% to 25% of locally-produced PM2.5, implying that local emissions controls would have a larger effect than previously thought. However, this additional uptake of SO2 is coupled to the model nitrate prediction which affects the aerosol liquid water abundance and chemistry driving sulfate-nitrate-ammonium partitioning. An additional simulation of the haze pollution with heterogeneous uptake of SO2 to aerosol and simple improvements to the model nitrate simulation results in 30% less sulfate due to 40% less nitrate and aerosol water, and results in an underestimate of sulfate during the haze event. Future studies need to better consider the impact of model physical processes such as dry deposition and nighttime boundary layer mixing on the simulation of nitrate and the effect of improved nitrate simulations on the overall simulation of secondary inorganic aerosol (sulfate+nitrate+ammonium) in East Asia. Foreign emissions are rapidly changing, increasing the need to understand the impact of local emissions on PM2.5 in South Korea to ensure continued air quality improvements.

Katherine R. Travis↗

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗

VEG-01: Veggie Hardware Verification Testing

The Veggie plant/vegetable production system is scheduled to fly on ISS at the end of2013. Since much of the technology associated with Veggie has not been previously tested in microgravity, a hardware validation flight was initiated. This test will allow data to be collected about Veggie hardware functionality on ISS, allow crew interactions to be vetted for future improvements, validate the ability of the hardware to grow and sustain plants, and collect data that will be helpful to future Veggie investigators as they develop their payloads. Additionally, food safety data on the lettuce plants grown will be collected to help support the development of a pathway for the crew to safely consume produce grown on orbit. Significant background research has been performed on the Veggie plant growth system, with early tests focusing on the development of the rooting pillow concept, and the selection of fertilizer, rooting medium and plant species. More recent testing has been conducted to integrate the pillow concept into the Veggie hardware and to ensure that adequate water is provided throughout the growth cycle. Seed sanitation protocols have been established for flight, and hardware sanitation between experiments has been studied. Methods for shipping and storage of rooting pillows and the development of crew procedures and crew training videos for plant activities on-orbit have been established. Science verification testing was conducted and lettuce plants were successfully grown in prototype Veggie hardware, microbial samples were taken, plant were harvested, frozen, stored and later analyzed for microbial growth, nutrients, and A TP levels. An additional verification test, prior to the final payload verification testing, is desired to demonstrate similar growth in the flight hardware and also to test a second set of pillows containing zinnia seeds. Issues with root mat water supply are being resolved, with final testing and flight scheduled for later in 2013.

Massa, Gioia↗

Restoring the Dunes: Using Satellite Imagery to Help Restore Turtle Nesting Grounds In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria

The North coast of Puerto Rico sustained heavy damage from Hurricane Maria and other subsequent tropical storms. This damage included erosion of beaches and foredunes. The foredunes are a delicate ecological environment, which provides important nesting grounds for endangered turtles. Local ecologists have been working to restore these dunes with mixed results. Presented here is an evaluation of dune restoration sites, and strategies to improve the success of subsequent restoration efforts. This involves both historical satellite image analysis and field work to evaluate sediment migration pathways. Local ecologists use a technique called Biomimicry to restore dunes. This involves inserting sticks or plants into the ground, simulating the effects of natural vegetation to slow wind speeds and deposit wind-blown sand. Manually planted vegetation can follow to stabilize the trapped sand. While often successful, this technique occasionally fails to accumulate significant amounts of sand. Satellite imagery shows that one of the controlling factors is the orientation of the dune and beach to the prevailing wind. Dunes that are oriented parallel to the prevailing wind are relatively slower-growing due to sediment bypass. Satellite imagery also indicates that the fastest growing dunes are in close proximity to major sediment sources. This is complicated by large dams, which limit the amount of sediment delivered to the coast. Field observation shows that biomimicry matrices are occasionally located too close to the swash zone, where storms over-top the dunes, poisoning stabilizing vegetation with salt water. Another common observation was that many dunes were starting to form behind fallen trees, suggesting that a different type of biomimicry might be successful. Satellite and field observation suggest that strategies to protect nearshore environments and improve dune restoration biomimicry efforts include: 1) orient biomimicry matrices at a higher angle to prevailing winds. 2) Prioritize sites near river mouths, particularly those without upstream dams. 3) Test other orientations of biomimicry, such as horizontal boards to mimic fallen trees. 4) Improve sediment supply by preventing further dam development, and releasing trapped sediment.

Paul Bremner↗

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

Carbonate petrography, kerogen distribution, and carbon and oxygen isotope variations in an early Proterozoic transition from limestone to iron-formation deposition, Transvaal Supergroup, South Africa

The transition zone comprises Campbellrand microbialaminated (replacing "cryptalgalaminate") limestone and shale, with minor dolomite, conformably overlain by the Kuruman Iron Formation of which the basal part is characterized by siderite-rich microbanded iron-formation with minor magnetite and some hematite-containing units. The iron-formation contains subordinate intraclastic and microbialaminated siderite mesobands and was deposited in deeper water than the limestones. The sequence is virtually unaltered with diagenetic mineral assemblages reflecting a temperature interval of about 110 degrees to 170 degrees C and pressures of 2 kbars. Carbonate minerals in the different rock types are represented by primary micritic precipitates (now recrystallized to microsparite), early precompactional sparry cements and concretions, deep burial limpid euhedral sparites, and spar cements precipitated from metamorphic fluids in close contact with diabase sills. Paragenetic pathways of the carbonate minerals are broadly similar in all lithofacies with kerogen intimately associated with them. Kerogen occurs as pigmentation in carbonate crystals, as reworked organic detritus in clastic-textured carbonate units, and as segregations of kerogen pigment around late diagenetic carbonate crystals. Locally kerogen may also be replaced by carbonate spar. Carbon isotope compositions of the carbonate minerals and kerogen are dependent on their mode of occurrence and on the composition of the dominant carbonate species in a specific lithofacies. Integration of sedimentary, petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic results makes it possible to distinguish between depositional, early diagenetic, deep burial, and metamorphic effects on the isotopic compositions of the carbonate minerals and the kerogen in the sequence. Major conclusions are that deep burial thermal decarboxylation led to 13C depletion in euhedral ferroan sparites and 13C enrichment in kerogen (organic carbon). Metamorphic sparites are most depleted in 13C. Carbonates in oxide-rich iron-formations are more depleted in 13C than those in siderite-rich iron-formation whereas the kerogens in oxide banded iron-formations (BIF) are more enriched. This implies that the siderite-rich iron-formations were not derived from oxide-rich iron-formation through reduction of ferric iron by organic matter. Organic matter oxidation by ferric iron did, however, decrease the abundance of kerogen in oxide-rich iron-formation and led to the formation of isotopically very light sparry carbonates. Siderite and calcmicrosparite both represent recrystallized primary micritic precipitates but differ in their 13C composition, with the siderites depleted in 13C by 4.6 per mil on average relative to calcmicrosparite. This means that the siderites were precipitated from water with dissolved inorganic carbon depleted in 13C by about 9 per mil relative to that from which the limestones precipitated. This implies an ocean system stratified with regard to total carbonate, with the deeper water, from which siderite-rich iron-formation formed, depleted in 13C. Iron-formations were deposited in areas of very low organic matter supply. Depletion of 13C may, therefore, derive not from degradation of organic matter but from hydrothermal activity, a conclusion which is supported by 18O composition of the carbonate minerals and trace element and rare earth element (REE) compositions of the iron-formations.

NASA Discipline Number 52-30↗