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At least 19 records

Processing Tomato Production Is Expected to Decrease By 2050 Due to the Projected Increase in Temperature

The global processing tomato production is concentrated in a small number of regions where climate change will have a significant impact on the future supply. Process-based tomato models project that the production in the three main producing countries (the United States, Italy, and China, representing 65% of global production) will decrease 6% by 2050, compared to the baseline period of 1980-2009. The predicted reduction in processing tomato production is due to a simulated increase in air temperature. Under an ensemble of projected climate scenarios, California and Italy might not be able to sustain the current levels of processing tomato production due to water resources constraints. Cooler producing regions, such as China and the northern parts of California, stand to improve their competitive advantage. The projected environmental changes indicate that the main growing regions of processing tomatoes might change in the coming decades.

Tomato production

Transboundary sky waters in the Middle East: definition, challenges, and opportunities

Transboundary water disputes in the Middle East have increased in recent years due to growing constraints on water resources. Efforts to harvest more water from the atmosphere through weather intervention projects have exacerbated existing conflicts. Here, we propose that atmospheric water vapor should be recognized as a transboundary resource that involves substantial uncertainty. As such, this note serves as a starting point for characterizing various components of this concept, the knowledge gaps, and a roadmap to address those gaps. These efforts would reduce uncertainties and help integrate the sky water into transboundary water negotiations and collaborative understanding.

Amin Dezfuli

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River

Mass Reduction: The Weighty Challenge for Exploration Space Flight

Meeting nutritional and acceptability requirements is critical for the food system for an exploration class space mission. However, this must be achieved within the constraints of available resources such as water, crew time, stowage volume, launch mass and power availability.  Due to resource constraints, exploration class missions are not expected to have refrigerators or freezers for food storage, and current per person food mass must be reduced to improve mission feasibility.  The Packaged Food Mass Reduction Trade Study (Stoklosa, 2009) concluded that the mass of the current space food system can be effectively reduced by decreasing water content of certain foods and offering nutrient dense substitutes, such as meal replacement bars and beverages. Target nutrient ranges were established based on the nutritional content of the current breakfast and lunch meals in the ISS standard menu. A market survey of available commercial products produced no viable options for meal replacement bar or beverage products. New prototypes for both categories were formulated to meet target nutrient ranges. Samples of prototype products were packaged in high barrier packaging currently used for ISS and underwent an accelerated shelf life study at 31 degC and 41 degC (50% RH) for 24 weeks. Samples were assessed at the following time points: Initial, 6 weeks, 12 weeks, and 24 weeks. Testing at each time point included the following: color, texture, water activity, acceptability, and hexanal analysis (for food bars only). Proof of concept prototypes demonstrated that meal replacement food bars and beverages can deliver a comparable macronutrient profile while reducing the overall mass when compared to the ISS Standard Menu. Future work suggestions for meal replacement bars: Reformulation to include ingredients that reduce hardness and reduce browning to increase shelf life. Micronutrient analysis and potential fortification. Sensory evaluation studies including satiety tests and menu fatigue. Water Intake Analysis: The water in thermostabilized foods is considered as part of a crewmember's daily water intake. Extensive meal replacement would require further analyses to determine if additional water provisioning would be required per crewmember negating some of the mass savings.

Kloeris, Vickie L.

The use of Earth Resources Technology Satellite for relaying hydrologic data in the Delaware River basin

The earth resources data acquisition systems on ERTS are providing data from the earth's surface that have great potential for resources management. The Data Collection System is providing water resources data several times a day from widely scattered locations in the Delaware River Basin. Within the constraints of an experimental test, the data are being processed and released to water resources agencies in near-real time. The results of ERTS investigations have shown that there is a potential application for satellite-borne systems for earth resources data acquisition. It is becoming clear that the solutions to many natural resource problems can be found faster and more efficiently with the help of data acquisition systems such as those on the ERTS observatory. Under operational conditions, low cost battery-operated DCP's could provide the Geological Survey with data from a large number of field instruments. These data could be used by the Geological Survey to monitor the operational status of field instrumentation and could be used by cooperating agencies to monitor a wide range of earth resources conditions. Under operational conditions, the data flow could be in real time. The delay from time of data acquisition by ERTS to the time of data availability to data users could be reduced to seconds, rather than the present lag time of a few hours.

Paulson, R. W.

Impact of hydropower availability on resource adequacy of the United States western interconnection

Hydropower is a key energy source in the western interconnection of the United States, comprising about 25% of the annual installed nameplate capacity in 2020. However, its generation is increasingly impacted by changing hydrological conditions, operational constraints, environmental factors, water availability, and aging dam infrastructure. Assessing hydropower availability and resource adequacy is valuable for shaping energy policies and infrastructure requirements. In this study we evaluate the sensitivity of resource adequacy in the Western Interconnection to the unavailability of hydropower plants, under a wide-ranging set of 16,384 hydropower loss scenarios derived from a combination of 14 major hydrologic regions. Although a complete loss of hydropower capacity in any region is unlikely, studying such scenarios helps in identifying hydrologic regions most critical for maintaining resource adequacy. So, we identify key hydrologic regions with disproportionately large adequacy impacts relative to their installed hydropower capacity and study compounding effects between regions using classification and regression trees. Even after controlling for total installed capacity, we find that hydropower resources in the Pacific Northwest contribute the most to interconnection-wide adequacy outcomes, with resources in Northern California and the Desert Southwest providing more moderate incremental contributions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

A Lunar Water ISRU System Study for Human-Scale Propellant Production

NASA’s plans to return to the moon in the Artemis campaign include intentions for sustainable surface operations. In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is key to enabling sustainability. The use of water, which has been identified in the lunar polar regions [1-4], could be pivotal to a sustainable architecture. While water has been identified, there is limited information regarding its form and distribution. The Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS) [5] outlined the current state of knowledge regarding water resources on the moon, what information is lacking, and how to approach a measurement campaign to close those knowledge gaps. However the NASA timeline necessitates that lunar surface water prospecting, or reconnaissance, efforts and ISRU system design to occur in parallel. ISRU hardware and systems development must proceed without key resource knowledge. Yet, engineering design requires come constraints and targets to work to. The goal of this study was to define a set of lunar water reference cases, based on the cur-rent lunar water information, to help focus ISRU de-sign and planning. This approach is similar to an study focused on Mars resources called Mars Water ISRU Planning (MWIP) [6].

Lunar Water

Implications of AI and Data Center Service Demand on Energy, Water, and Economic Systems

This talk focuses on the challenges posed by the rapid growth of data centers (DCs), which rely heavily on electricity, water, land, and mineral resources, and have significant interactions with economic growth. The U.S. leads in DC deployment, but understanding how resource demands and constraints impact DC expansion requires strategic multisector analysis. To address this, the talk introduces a new conceptual framework and modeling capability within GCAM-USA, allowing integrated analysis of DC service demand, electricity, and direct and indirect water needs under varied scenarios. Insights include state-level water and electricity trends for DCs, uncertainty bounds, and the broader implications for resources and economics.

Data Centers

Existing Methods for Grid Strength Assessment and Role of Hydropower in Future Grids

The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), large loads, microgrids, and power electronic devices. Ensuring reliable and stable operation of the modern power grid is a multi-faceted challenge that requires detailed understanding of this complex system. Dynamic stability is a major concern in maintaining the security of power grids as the generation mixes and large loads transitions to include high shares of power electronic devices. The operation of IBRs in regions with low system strength and higher grid impedances has been found to be the main reason behind many of the power system instabilities that manifest themselves in various types of oscillations and interactions that, if not properly addressed and damped, can jeopardize the reliable operation of the power system. Weak grid conditions compound such stability problems, particularly when many IBRs operate in proximity to and connect to weak power grids. Therefore, it is important to assess grid strength for planning, integration and operation of IBRs for a given power system. In this report, we aim to understand and classify existing methodologies for grid strength assessment, along with their limitations and future needs. Further, we aim to utilize the huge untapped potential in utilizing hydro energy resources in addressing some of the pertinent challenges of grid strength and reliable operation of modern power systems. Hydropower, historically valued for its flexibility and dispatchability, now faces new constraints due to reduced share of synchronous machines in the generation mix and seasonal variability of available water resources. Yet, these same plants present untapped potential beyond energy generation - notably, as providers of critical grid services. This report explores how hydropower plants, particularly through operation as synchronous condensers, can play a pivotal role in strengthening the grid amid evolving system dynamics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Water on Mars - Volatile history and resource availability

An attempt is made to define the available deposits of water in the near-surface region of Mars which will be available to human exploration missions. The Martian seasonal water cycle is reviewed, and geochemical and geological constraints on the availability of water are examined. It is concluded that the only sure source of water in amounts significant as a resource are in the polar ice deposits.

Jakosky, Bruce M.

Technology Impact and Resource Assessment of Existing and Planned U.S. Biofuel Production: Life Cycle Water Consumption, Water Stress, Land Use, and Criteria Air Pollutants

Biofuels have the potential to strengthen the U.S. energy supply, enhance energy security, and promote economic development. As the United States continues to expand biofuel production, quantifying resource requirements and location-specific constraints is crucial for planning, siting, and technology development to support long-term viability. Accordingly, this work assesses the life cycle resource consumption (water consumption, and land use), water stress and criteria air pollutants associated with expanded U.S. biofuel production over the 2020–2035 period, based on producers’ plans. We perform a bottom-up technology impact assessment and resource assessment by integrating facility-level production statistics with Argonne’s Research and Development (R&D) GREET model and county-level water-stress characterization factors from Available Water Remaining for the United States (AWARE-US) model. Results suggest that by 2035, biofuels could meaningfully contribute to U.S. energy demand, driven primarily by first-generation and waste-based feedstocks with plans for substantial capacity expansion, although cellulosic and e-fuel technologies remain limited. However, growth must be managed to minimize impacts on water resources and land use. These impacts vary by fuel type and facility location, specifically, projected expansion increases water consumption and can elevate water-stress impacts in certain regions like Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, California and North Texas. Direct land use also increases overall, particularly for first-generation feedstocks such as corn and soybeans. These findings underscore the need for continued technological improvements and innovative strategies to manage resource demands as the industry scales and to support complementary deployment within the evolving U.S. energy system.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Application of remote sensing to land and water resource planning: The Pocomoke River Basin, Maryland

Because of the size of the Pocomoke River Basin, the inaccessibility of certain areas, and study time constraints, several remote sensing techniques were used to collect base information on the river corridor, (a 23.2 km channel) and on a 1.2 km wooded floodplain. This information provided an adequate understanding of the environment and its resources, thus enabling effective management options to be designed. The remote sensing techniques used for assessment included manual analysis of high altitude color-infrared photography, computer-assisted analysis of LANDSAT-2 imagery, and the application of airborne oceanographic Lidar for topographic mapping. Results show that each techniques was valuable in providing the needed base data necessary for resource planning.

Wildesen, S. E.

Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector

The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim

Decadal-Scale Hydrothermal Alteration of Basalt: Implications for Long-Term Reactivity in Subsurface Technologies

Global demands to secure critical mineral supply chains and managing water resources require innovative resource management strategies. Subsurface basalt reservoirs offer a dual-purpose application, where CO2 enhanced critical metal recovery can be coupled with water remediation strategies for the extraction of economically important and environmentally relevant elements. This study utilizes static batch experiments conducted on Columbia River Basalt Group samples to evaluate long-term fluid–rock interactions relevant to coupled subsurface applications. Samples were reacted under elevated temperature and pressure conditions, for 296 and 4,061 days, providing a unique dataset to assess geochemical evolution, element partitioning, and aqueous chemistry over decadal timescales. The alteration was dominated by silicate, aluminosilicate, and oxide phases. Progressive hydrothermal alteration increased the cation exchange capacity through the formation of secondary minerals (e.g. clays and zeolites), influencing solute retention, ion exchange behavior, and aqueous chemistry. Grain-scale and bulk analyses revealed selective cation release and retention patterns, establishing a mechanistic baseline for predicting element mobility. These geochemical constraints inform the prospective use of CO2-enhanced metal recovery for critical resources (e.g. Co, Ni, Mn, Mg, Ti, Fe) and associated water-quality impacts, providing a foundation for the design and management of engineered fluid–rock systems in basalt reservoirs.

Gibson, Marie N.

Mars Commercial-Compatible Initial Human-Precursor Surveying and Instrument-Deployment Concepts

Water is a critical resource need for future human exploration and habitation of Mars and other planetary environments. An integral scientific question in the search for life outside of Earth is: What are the constraints on life in planetary environments? One of the most critical features of habitable environments is the availability of water - both as an environment for prebiotic chemistry, abiogenesis, and life; and as a vehicle for generating geo- and electro- chemical systems that can support metabolism. Seeking evidence of life prior to human arrival is important both to preserve signs of any existing or past evidence of Martian life, reducing the risks of unintentional forward contamination of Martian environments, and to potentially protect the health of any human crews. Looking forward towards Mars, future human exploration will require a rapid, but thorough, initial survey of any local “area of operations” on Mars to determine the spatial distribution, quantity, and quality (e.g., salt/mineral/organic content) of any local water, as well as to evaluate any signs of current or extinct life. We will discuss several candidate field survey methodologies, involving humans, a teamed instrument platform and a surveying/sampling rover. These are proposed to be validated in a given terrestrial Mars analog environment exhibiting varying distributions of water (ice, permafrost, rock-bound) to evaluate the constraints on life. Commercial space exploration brings the future possibility of unprecedented mass, power and in situ instrument capability, potentially enabling thorough exploration of the geology, hydrology and astrobiology of a km-radius study-zone around a future Mars human/commercial space landing site. We propose to study several representative planetary surface precursor-survey architectures and mission concepts (that are commercial-Mars-compatible), and to test and compare them in field application. We will examine some of the performance issues, using given metrics and controls, of spacesuited humans using handheld and standalone instruments, vs. a robotic human-tended rover/drill, robot arm and instruments. The latter rover-based architecture can in turn be viewed in terms of returned-to-base sample in-situ analyses vs sample analysis performed on a standalone instrument platform deployed away from the primary area of operations.

astrobiology

Impacts of Alternative Operations and Renewable Energy Deployment on Columbia River Hydropower

The Columbia River Treaty Tribes in the Pacific Northwest - the Nez Perce, Umatilla, Warm Springs, and Yakama - hold treaty-reserved fishing rights for the Columbia River, one of the world's most productive salmon rivers and a critical resource for these tribes. However, the tribes have expressed that current operating regimes of hydropower dams throughout the Columbia River Basin (CRB) do not fully account for tribal fishing rights and have negatively impacted fish populations. Four tribes acting together through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC)'s 2022 Energy Vision stated that current power system models often do not fully account for the many constraints faced by hydropower facilities in the CRB. As the deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) like solar and wind continues to increase, power system flexibility will become increasingly important. As a result, there is a growing need to better understand the true capabilities of the hydropower generation fleet while accurately accounting for ecological constraints (Northwest Power and Conservation Council 2022). Understanding hydropower's role in a future grid with a higher share of VRE can inform water resources planning to address ecological needs. The goal of this study is to examine the impacts of alternative hydropower operation rules and weather variability on hydropower generation and grid operations in VRE and transmission infrastructure deployment scenarios. The study evaluates how hydropower scheduling practices can reduce ecological impacts to the region's salmon populations. More specifically, the study examines the impact of today's dam water release rules (called "adjusted base water rules" in this study) and new, ecologically informed water release rules (called "ecosystem water rules" in this study) on two VRE scenarios (current renewable energy levels and higher renewable energy levels) using six weather years for each scenario (2008-2013). CRITFC developed the ecosystem water rules, which capture a portion of the changes they recommend for CRB hydropower operations. These analyses use a water resource planning model (OASIS) and a production cost model (PLEXOS) to simulate CRB reservoir cascade and Western Interconnection power grid operation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY

Economic Analysis in the Pacific Northwest Land Resources Project: Theoretical Considerations and Preliminary Results

The Pacific Northwest Land Resources Inventory Demonstration Project i s an a ttempt to combine a whole spectrum of heterogeneous geographic, institutional and applications elements in a synergistic approach to the evaluation of remote sensing techniques. This diversity is the prime motivating factor behind a theoretical investigation of alternative economic analysis procedures. For a multitude of reasons--simplicity, ease of understanding, financial constraints and credibility, among others--cost-effectiveness emerges as the most practical tool for conducting such evaluation determinatIons in the Pacific Northwest. Preliminary findings in two water resource application areas suggest, in conformity with most published studies, that Lands at-aided data collection methods enjoy substantial cost advantages over alternative techniques. The pntential for sensitivity analysis based on cost/accuracy tradeoffs is considered on a theoretical plane in the absence of current accuracy figures concerning the Landsat-aided approach.

Morse, D. R. A.