Modeling the Free Inclinations of the Classical Kuiper Belt with the von Mises–Fisher Distribution
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Renu Malhotra↗
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Results for “von Mises distribution”
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Probabilistic inversion of circular phase spectra: application to two-station phase-velocity dispersion estimation in western Canada
SUMMARY Periodic directional and temporal measurements are common in seismology, and necessitate specific statistical analyses that are appropriate for circular quantities. In this work, we explore the use of a von Mises distribution as a representation of errors on circular seismological observations. Specifically, we automate the estimation of surface-wave phase-velocity dispersion for the teleseismic two-station method, which generally suffers from a 2π phase ambiguity. The use of Bayesian inverse techniques, which aim to rigorously quantify model parameter uncertainty, have become widespread throughout seismology over the last decade. Here, we apply Bayesian inversion to measurements of surface-wave phase spectra in order to estimate 1-D, path-averaged Earth structure between station pairs. The dispersion curve and associated uncertainties are additional results of the inversion, which can then be used as input for subsequent analyses (e.g. tomography). We demonstrate this technique through application to surface-wave recordings from long-running seismic stations throughout western Canada. Our results for over 10 000 station pairs reveal first-order tectonic features consistent with previous studies, which provides confidence in our approach as well as an initial step towards resolving a full 3-D seismic velocity model for the region. This work also presents a foundation for the inversion of surface-wave phase spectra to estimate 3-D Earth structure directly. Finally, the ideas presented in this work are not limited to the inversion of surface-wave phase spectra, but can also be considered for Bayesian geophysical inversion of any circular quantities.
Gosselin, Jeremy M. (ORCID:0000000203754102)↗
Determination of climbing ability
The vertical distribution of the pressure, temperature, and density of the atmosphere varies from day to day. Thus, rates of climb on different days cannot be compared directly, but must be corrected with reference to a standard rate of diminution of air density with increasing altitude. The following problem, therefore, has to be solved. An airplane has climbed on a certain day under prevailing atmospheric conditions as shown by the barograph. How would the same airplane climb in a standard atmosphere? This problem has already been dealt with by Everling, using the monthly and yearly mean of the vertical temperature distribution. Von Mises solved the problem by arithmetical methods. Here, conditions are examined which shorten or lengthen the climbing time. In establishing the corrected barogram, computation seems more practical than graphical treatment. The basis of the answer to the question answered here is summed up in the remark that lift, drag, propeller thrust, and torque and engine power depend only on the density of the air and do not change with the pressure and temperature, provided that the density remains constant.
Blasius, H↗
Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere
Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Nanomechanical investigation of the interplay between pore morphology and crack orientation of amorphous silica
Porous amorphous silica (a-SiO 2 ) is of both fundamental and practical interests, as they exhibit a large specific surface area and tunable porous network. However, the brittle nature of a-SiO 2 and the presence of pre-existing cracks at both micro- and nano-scales lead to complex mechanical behavior. Here, we systematically investigate the effects of pre-existing crack and its orientation on the mechanical properties of a-SiO 2 with varying pore shapes using reactive molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that pore shape will primarily influence the Young’s modulus (E) and critical energy release rate (G IC ). We further investigate the impact of pore shape and crack orientation by local characterization of the structural parameters. By defining the high stress and inter-mediate regions, the overall mechanical properties are found to be greatly influenced by the pore shape which can be reflected through the spatial distribution of von Mises stress. Overall, G IC is found to increase with the increase of ligament length (also known as pore wall thickness). Meanwhile, the effect of the pre-existing crack on the crack propagation process is confirmed by analyzing the density distribution evolution. These results highlight the interplay between pore morphology and crack orientation in controlling the fracture behaviors in brittle porous materials.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Gauge R & R studies for angular measurements
Angular measurements lie on the circumference of a circle and have different characteristics than standard scalar measurements. For applications involving angular data, treating the measured values as scalars can lead to misinterpretation of results if its wrap-around nature is not taken into account. In this article, we propose a variance components wrapped normal model for angular measurements that is analogous to the standard normal model for continuous measurements. This model allows decomposition of contributions to the overall variance to be separated and compared to understand the drivers of the spread of the data. In this work, we analyze gauge R & R study data using Bayesian methods and illustrate the use of this wrapped normal model with simulated and real data. We also performed a small simulation study in considering the design of gauge R & R studies with angular measurements.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Elastic-Plastic Nonlinear Response of a Space Shuttle External Tank Stringer: Stringer-Feet Imperfections and Assembly - Part 1
Elastic-plastic, large-deflection nonlinear stress analyses are performed for the external hat-shaped stringers (or stiffeners) on the intertank portion of the Space Shuttle s external tank. These stringers are subjected to assembly strains when the stringers are initially installed on an intertank panel. Four different stringer-feet configurations including the baseline flat-feet, the heels-up, the diving-board, and the toes-up configurations are considered. The assembly procedure is analytically simulated for each of these stringer configurations. The location, size, and amplitude of the strain field associated with the stringer assembly are sensitive to the assumed geometry and assembly procedure. The von Mises stress distributions from these simulations indicate that localized plasticity will develop around the first eight fasteners for each stringer-feet configuration examined. However, only the toes-up configuration resulted in high assembly hoop strains.
Knight, Norman F., Jr.↗
Deep probabilistic direction prediction in 3D with applications to directional dark matter detectors
Abstract We present the first method to probabilistically predict 3D direction in a deep neural network model. The probabilistic predictions are modeled as a heteroscedastic von Mises-Fisher distribution on the sphere S 2 , giving a simple way to quantify aleatoric uncertainty. This approach generalizes the cosine distance loss which is a special case of our loss function when the uncertainty is assumed to be uniform across samples. We develop approximations required to make the likelihood function and gradient calculations stable. The method is applied to the task of predicting the 3D directions of electrons, the most complex signal in a class of experimental particle physics detectors designed to demonstrate the particle nature of dark matter and study solar neutrinos. Using simulated Monte Carlo data, the initial direction of recoiling electrons is inferred from their tortuous trajectories, as captured by the 3D detectors. For 40 keV electrons in a 70% He 30% CO 2 gas mixture at STP, the new approach achieves a mean cosine distance of 0.104 (26 ∘ ) compared to 0.556 (64 ∘ ) achieved by a non-machine learning algorithm. We show that the model is well-calibrated and accuracy can be increased further by removing samples with high predicted uncertainty. This advancement in probabilistic 3D directional learning could increase the sensitivity of directional dark matter detectors.
Computer Science↗
Finite Element Analysis (FEA) for Water-Foam Fracturing of Granite Rock
In addition to the foam data that were obtained from literature and that were collected from the current study, simulation data was also generated from finite element analysis (FEA) conducted in this study using COMSOL Multiphysics software. The FEA models were built to simulate the experiments conducted at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) on cement and granite samples. In these FEA models, temperature was kept at ambient while the pressure profile resembled the loading conditions during the ORNL experiments, where pressure was either monotonically increased or applied cyclically. The cement material was used as a model material and was used to study Von Mises stress and tensile stress distribution for different bore hole length geometry using a parametric sweep with water as fracturing fluid using solid-fluid interaction module. For the granite material, FEA models were developed for stress analysis of cylindrical samples with water or foam fluids. The solid mechanics module in COMSOL was implemented to solve for Von Mises stress and tensile stress. The fluid-structure interaction module was implemented to solve for water-foam interaction on granite cylinder with addition of fluid-loading on structure, i.e., large deformation in solid mechanics with no impact on fluid deformation. Foam was considered as a pseudo single-phase compressible fluid for which material properties were calculated from water and gas (nitrogen) phases. The density of foam is calculated as a function of the densities of water and nitrogen, while viscosity is a function of temperature. Four types of FEA analyses were modelled: 1. Monotonic injection with water 2. Monotonic injection with foam 3. Cyclic injection with water 4. Cyclic injection with foam All the COMSOL files are converted to a zip file which is save in .mph.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds
We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach
Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
An Assessment of the Axial and Radial Dilation of a DPIMS Tantalum Cartridge for Space Shuttle Flight Experiments
Ground-based heat treatment tests are planned on an argon gas-filled tantalum cartridge developed as pan of a Diffusion Processes in Molten Semiconductors (DPIMS) experiment conducted on NASA's Space Shuttle. The possibility that the cartridge may creep during testing and touch the furnace walls is of real concern in this program. The present paper discusses the results of calculations performed to evaluate this possibility. Deformation mechanism maps were constructed using literature data in order to identify the creep mechanism dominant under the appropriate stresses and temperatures corresponding to the test conditions. These results showed that power-law creep was dominant when the grain size of the material exceeded 55 gm but Coble creep was the important mechanism below this value of grain size. Finite element analysis was used to analyze the heat treatment tWs assuming a furnace run away condition (which is a worst case scenario) using the appropriate creep parameters corresponding to grain sizes of 1 and 100 gm. Calculations were also conducted to simulate the effect of an initial 3 tilt of the cartridge assembly, the maximum possible tilt angle. The von Mises stress and su-ain distributions were calculated assuming that the cartridge was fixed at one end as it was heated from ambient temperature to 1823 K in 1.42 h, maintained at 1823 K for 9.5 h and then further heated to an over temperature condition of 2028 K in 0.3 h. The inelastic axial and radial displacements of the cartridge walls were evaluated by resolving the von Mises strain along the corresponding directions. These calculations reveal that the maximum axial and radial displacements are expected to be about 2.9 and 0.25 mm, respectively, for both fine and coarse-grained materials at 2028 K. It was determined that these displacements occur during heat-up to temperature and creep of the cartridge is likely to be relatively insignificant irrespective of grain size. Furthermore, with a 3' tilt of the cartridge, the deflection is increased by only 0.39 gm which is negligible. Since the gap between the furnace heating elements and the cartridge is about 7.5 mm and less than the maximum radial dilation of 0.25 mm at 2028 K, it is concluded that the cartridge is unlikely to touch the furnace walls during the experiments.
Raj, S.V.↗
Augmented fidelity as an alternative to the average fidelity
We provide description of different techniques to assess performance of quantum gates. In particular we focus on newly introduced metric called augmented fidelity, which provides extension to standard average fidelity by taking the average over von Mises-Fisher and polar cap distributions. We show the differences between standard average and augmented fidelities.
quantum computing↗
Parametric Analysis of Aircraft WingWeight Using Low-Order Physics-Based Analysis
In the conceptual aircraft design phase, prediction of the empty weight typically relies on empirically-based regression equations which execute quickly and require little detailed information about the internal structural layout. Since they are based on existing aircraft, however, empirical methods can lose their validity for newer technologies and unconventional configurations. Designers can transition to higher-order, physics-based analysis methods to improve the accuracy of the weight prediction, but at the cost of complex model setup and increased computational time. This paper describes a methodology for low-order aero-structural analysis of conceptual aircraft configurations that increases the use of physics-based analysis in conceptual design, but is less complex and time-consuming than higher-order methods such as finite-element analysis. The methodology uses Vehicle Sketch Pad (OpenVSP) to model the aircraft geometry, and ASWING to perform the aero-structural analysis. The internal forces and moments from the ASWING analysis are post-processed to calculate the resulting direct and shear stresses in the structure, and the thickness distributions of the aircraft components are varied to match the maximum von Mises stress at each cross section to the material allowable. To offset the increased computational time relative to empirical weight equations, a process is studied which uses parametric variation to develop a regression equation relating the weight of the aircraft wing to major design variables. This new weight equation is similar to existing empirical equations, but is built using the more physics-based methodology; the new equation could be used to augment or replace portions of the empirical database to improve the validity of the wing weight prediction for unconventional configurations and advanced technologies.
Olson, Erik D.↗
Generation of Finite Life Distributional Goodman Diagrams for Reliability Prediction
The methodology of developing finite life distributional Goodman diagrams and surfaces is described for presenting allowable combinations of alternating stress and mean stress to the design engineer. The combined stress condition is that of an alternating bending stress and a constant shear stress. The finite life Goodman diagrams and surfaces are created from strength distributions developed at various ratios of alternating to mean stress at particular cycle life values. The conclusions indicate that the Von Mises-Hencky ellipse, for cycle life values above 1000 cycles, is an adequate model of the finite life Goodman diagram. In addition, suggestions are made which reduce the number of experimental data points required in a fatigue data acquisition program.
Kececioglu, D.↗
Residual Strength Prediction of Fuselage Structures with Multiple Site Damage
This paper summarizes recent results on simulating full-scale pressure tests of wide body, lap-jointed fuselage panels with multiple site damage (MSD). The crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion and the FRANC3D/STAGS software program were used to analyze stable crack growth under conditions of general yielding. The link-up of multiple cracks and residual strength of damaged structures were predicted. Elastic-plastic finite element analysis based on the von Mises yield criterion and incremental flow theory with small strain assumption was used. A global-local modeling procedure was employed in the numerical analyses. Stress distributions from the numerical simulations are compared with strain gage measurements. Analysis results show that accurate representation of the load transfer through the rivets is crucial for the model to predict the stress distribution accurately. Predicted crack growth and residual strength are compared with test data. Observed and predicted results both indicate that the occurrence of small MSD cracks substantially reduces the residual strength. Modeling fatigue closure is essential to capture the fracture behavior during the early stable crack growth. Breakage of a tear strap can have a major influence on residual strength prediction.
Chen, Chuin-Shan↗
Effect of interjet spacing on mixing of multiple coaxial jets in supersonic flow
An experimental and analytical investigation of strut-mounted, four-nozzle, downstream facing, gaseous fuel injector assembly was conducted in a Mach 4 air-stream with P = 154 psia and T sub o 520 R. Helium was used as the injectant, and the interjet spacing (S/D) was the main parameter varied. The principal data are in the form of Helium concentration profiles at seven axial stations, Mach number distributions at three axial stations and schlieren photographs of the flow field at different interjet spacings. An approximate analysis was developed based upon a linearization in the Von Mises plane, Crocco integrals for the temperature and concentrations fields and an eddy viscosity model. Good agreement with the data was achieved. It was found that, at these conditions, interjet spacing has an effect on mixing only up to S/D of approximately 2.5, with concentration of injectant becoming smaller as S/D is increased, and the Mach number downstream of the injector tends to decrease with decreasing S/D.
Lorber, A. K.↗
Turbulent mixing of multiple co-axial gaseous fuel jets in a supersonic airstream
An experimental and analytical investigation of a strut-mounted, four-nozzle, downstream-facing, gaseous fuel-injector assembly was conducted in a Mach 4 airstream at 154 psia and 520 R. Helium was used as the injectant in order to simulate a low molecular weight fuel, and the interjet spacing (S/D) was the main parameter varied. The principal data are in the form of helium concentration profiles at seven axial stations, Mach number distributions at three axial stations, and Schlieren photographs of the flow field at different interjet spacings. An approximate analysis was developed based upon a linearization in the Von Mises plane, Crocco integrals for the temperature and concentrations fields, and an eddy viscosity model. Good agreement with the data was achieved. It was found that, at these conditions, interjet spacing has a significant effect on mixing only up to S/D of approximately 2.5, with the concentration of the injectant at a given point becoming smaller as S/D is increased.
Lorber, A. K.↗