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At least 19 records

On MCNP Stochastic Volume Estimation Normalization

This paper resolves a perennial point of confusion regarding the source-weighting normalization factor recommended in the MCNP manual (𝜋⁢𝑟 2 ) to stochastically estimate the volume of a region within an enclosing inward-directed spherical surface source with radius 𝑟. The normalization factor arises from the relationship between a sphere’ s mean chord length, its volume, and the values estimated by MCNP track-length tallies. A brief derivation is given that relates these quantities and results in the stated normalization. The correctness of this factor is demonstrated by estimating the volume of a variety of convex and nonconvex volumes. A heuristic demonstration of how biasing the inward-directed source reduces the statistical uncertainty of the stochastic volume estimate is also given, but a rigorous analysis of this improvement is left as future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatial Transferability of Machine Learning Based Volume Estimation Models

High-quality traffic volume data is essential for efficient transportation planning and operations. However, such high-quality data is expensive to collect, owing primarily to the high capital cost of installing and maintaining continuous counting stations (CCSs). Recent availability of probe-based vehicle data offers a cost-effective solution for increasing the observability of traffic volumes. However, having ample ground truth traffic data is a prerequisite for developing robust volume estimation models. Though this might not be a big issue in many states, states with scarce CCS data might be able to benefit from robust volume estimation models developed in (adjacent) data-rich states. While there is a reasonable amount of spatial transferability research in the transportation domain, there is a dearth of knowledge on the spatial transferability of probe-based volume estimation models. To address this gap, this paper explores spatial transferability of volume estimation models developed from data in three states (Colorado, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania). Results indicate that it is extremely important to maintain temporal consistency when attempting spatial transferability of volume estimation models. It was also found that models trained on regions with lower peak traffic volumes will limit the performance of models transferred to states with higher peak hourly traffic volumes. Corroborating findings from existing spatial transferability research on other topics, it was found that a meta-model (developed using data from multiple states) performs better than volume estimation models developed within any one of the states.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation System

The Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation System uses Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to provide accurate estimates of number vehicles on the roadway (ubiquitous traffic volume) based on inputs such as commercial probe traffic data that includes average vehicle speed and probe counts, roadway characteristics, weather, time of day, and day of week, and reference volume counts from a limited number of automatic traffic recorder stations. The Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation System estimates traffic volumes 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year on all major corridors and freeways in Denver metropolitan area and is being expanded to the whole state of Colorado. The methodology and code developed in this effort can be easily customized to other states and cities where similar data is available.

Young, Stanley↗

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation through Machine-Learning Procedure

Traffic volume data is one of the most important metrics for accurate assessment of the performance of a transportation system. Quality volume data is required to effectively assess extent of delay and congestion, detect real-time perturbations to the network, and understand traffic patterns during major weather events. Traffic volume on freeways are typically collected through continuous count stations installed by state DOTs, while there is lack of traffic volume observability on off-freeway roads. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in Collaboration with the I-95 Corridor Coalition and the University of Maryland, extended its research into estimating volumes anywhere anytime from industry probe based data for off-freeway roads. NREL combined vehicle probe count data with several other data sets (speed, whether, roadway geometry, time-of-day, day-of-week, etc.) to estimate hourly volumes as well as AADTs. The research validated and demonstrated the machine learning model, namely XGBoost, using data collected from Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Tennessee.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Ubiquitous Traffic Volume Estimation through Machine Learning Procedure

High-quality traffic volume data is critical for transportation planning, operations, and travel-energy calculations. However, vehicle count data from roadside sensors is very sparse owing to high capital cost of installing, and on-going maintenance of electronic sensor equipment. This research effort aims to bring to market a first of its kind traffic volume data product that provides accurate estimates of traffic volumes across the entire road network for all times (24x7) and all locations (100% coverage). This product greatly improves the coverage and quality of traffic volume information by combining commercial probe traffic data with traditional traffic measurement using state-of-the-art machine learning. Commercial probe traffic data are derived from vehicles that self-report their position and speed as well as crowd sourced data from smartphone applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Characterization of Coal Refuse Sites in West Virginia: Stream Loss, Volume Estimation, and Land Cover Analysis for Restoration Feasibility

Coal refuse disposal across Appalachia has resulted in widespread environmental degradation, including stream burial, landscape destabilization, and long-term hydrologic impacts. This study provides a GIS-based spatial characterization of 623 coal refuse sites in West Virginia, evaluating their potential for ecological and economic restoration. Stream loss was quantified through digitization of historic topographic maps, revealing over 194,500 meters of historically present streams lost, with 105,000 meters directly buried beneath refuse piles. Volume estimation using empirical Bayesian kriging and modern LiDAR surfaces indicated approximately 1.96 billion cubic meters of deposited refuse. Land cover analysis based on NAIP-derived classification showed that 48% of the total site area was forested, while 15% remained barren. These results highlight not only the environmental footprint of legacy refuse deposits but also their potential for restoration through stream daylighting and beneficial reuse. Emerging opportunities, including rare earth element recovery and mitigation banking, may offer economic incentives to facilitate reclamation. This work establishes a spatial framework to prioritize refuse sites for restoration, balancing ecological uplift with feasible material management strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Prospect Analysis and Hydrocarbon Reservoir Volume Estimation in an Exploration Field, Shallow Offshore Depobelt, Western Niger Delta, Nigeria

The daunting challenge in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the face of continual rise in the world’s energy consumption has long been how to economically recover bypassed reserves within existing assets. This research is focused on the analysis of prospects and volumetric estimation of the hydrocarbon reservoirs delineated within an exploratory field using 3D seismic data and suites of wireline logs. The prospectivity of the delineated reservoir was carried out using seismo-structural interpretation and formation evaluation towards the assessment of the prolific hydrocarbon occurrence within the field. The reservoirs have porosity (0.29–0.32) for H1, (0.20–0.31) for H2 and (0.30–0.40) for H3 and the average computed hydrocarbon saturation of (0.31–0.62) for H1, (0.16–0.52) for H2 and (0.64–0.73) for H3, hydrocarbon pore volume (HCPV) of 28,706.95, 33,081.2 and 45,731.49 barrels for H1, H2 and H3, respectively, while the estimated stock tank oil initially-in-place (STOIIP) range (136.8–140.73) MMSTB for H1, (36.77–489.64) MMSTB for H2 and (166.62–308.14) MMSTB for H3. The observed porosity and hydrocarbon saturation for the delineated reservoirs as well as the estimated hydrocarbon pore volume and storage total oil in place indicate that the reservoirs are highly prolific. The study has therefore contributed to the understanding of hydrocarbon resource potential within the study area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An in-situ view cell system for investigating swelling behavior of elastomers upon high-pressure hydrogen exposure

The transition to hydrogen as a clean and efficient energy carrier is impeded by challenges in the compatibility of hydrogen with materials used within hydrogen infrastructure. Elastomers, crucial in sealing components, often exhibit premature failures in high-pressure hydrogen environments due to excessive swelling. This study employs an innovative in-situ view cell system to assess the swelling behavior of hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber (HNBR) under various hydrogen conditions. The system, designed to withstand pressures up to 96.5 MPa, incorporates Digital Image Correlation (DIC) for strain measurements and volume estimation. Results reveal non-linear volume increases during depressurization, challenging conventional assumptions. Furthermore, investigations into peak hydrogen pressures and pressure-holding scenarios during decompression highlight complex swelling trends. The introduction of a novel computer vision (CV) method enhances precision in volume estimation, overcoming DIC limitations. The study provides insights into mitigating elastomer swelling, crucial for developing robust materials to support future hydrogen-driven energy systems.

Elastomer↗

Integrated Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessments of Central Appalachian Legacy Mine Sites for Biomass Development and Waste Coal Utilization

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy – National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) under award DE-FE0032212, evaluated how legacy coal mine lands and coal refuse piles in Central Appalachia (West Virginia and Pennsylvania) can be reclaimed and repurposed to support biomass development and beneficial utilization of waste coal, with the long-term goal of supporting net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways. The project had two primary objectives: 1. Characterize legacy mine sites (including site conditions, waste coal/refuse resources, and soil/ecosystem indicators) and develop reclamation and best management practices (BMPs) for biomass cultivation; and 2. Conduct integrated machine learning (ML)-assisted life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) to quantify environmental and economic outcomes for multiple biomass and waste-coal utilization pathways. Across West Virginia, the team identified ~625 coal refuse sites covering ~19,705 acres, and developed methods to estimate refuse pile volume using digital elevation models (DEMs) and geospatial workflows. A large subset of sites received volume estimates totaling ~1.6 billion m³.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Real-Time Highly Resolved Spatial-Temporal Vehicle Energy Consumption Estimation Using Machine Learning and Probe Data

Real-time highly resolved spatial-temporal vehicle energy consumption is a key missing dimension in transportation data. Most roadway link-level vehicle energy consumption data are estimated using average annual daily traffic measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System; however, this method does not reflect day-to-day energy consumption fluctuations. As transportation planners and operators are becoming more environmentally attentive, they need accurate real-time link-level vehicle energy consumption data to assess energy and emissions; to incentivize energy-efficient routing; and to estimate energy impact caused by congestion, major events, and severe weather. This paper presents a computational workflow to automate the estimation of time-resolved vehicle energy consumption for each link in a road network of interest using vehicle probe speed and count data in conjunction with machine learning methods in real time. The real-time pipeline can deliver energy estimates within a couple seconds on query to its interface. The proposed method was evaluated on the transportation network of the metropolitan area of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The volume estimation results were validated with ground truth traffic volume data collected in the field. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the energy consumption pipeline was applied to real-world data to quantify road transportation-related energy reduction because of mitigation policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 and to measure energy loss resulting from congestion.

Severino, Joseph↗

Clustered BSRs: Evidence for gas hydrate-bearing turbidite complexes in folded regions, example from the Perdido Fold Belt, northern Gulf of Mexico

We detail previously undocumented but extensive gas hydrate accumulations in the mouth of Perdido Canyon in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The accumulations are located within central parts of structural domes (four-way closures) and are characterized by stacked, high-amplitude bottom simulating reflections (BSRs) that we call clustered BSRs. Seismic data from Perdido Canyon show two clustered BSRs associated with turbidite sequences within two dome folds formed from tectonic folding and salt diapir rise. The northwestern (NW) and southeastern (SE) clustered BSRs have aerial extents of ~25 km2 and 50 km2, respectively. Well log data confirm gas hydrate occurs above the NW clustered BSR, within a 225 m-thick consistently high-resistivity interval that we interpret as gas hydrate in near-vertical fractures and turbidite sands. The SE dome is only drilled at the edge of the BSR; nevertheless, the well log data indicate that a 30 m-thick gas hydrate accumulation is present. Gas chromatographic logs in both domes suggest a gradual transition from predominantly microbial gas below the BSR (500–1000 m below seafloor (mbsf)) to thermogenic gas at 1000–2000 mbsf. Based on the well log data and seismic stratigraphic analysis, we find gas hydrate is concentrated in fractures in marine mud, as well as in the pores of submarine fan turbidities, where saturations reach as high as 75%. An estimate of the total gas hydrate-bound gas volume at standard temperature and pressure is between 0.04 and 0.17 trillion cubic meters (TCM) assuming average hydrate saturation of 5-20% in a ~45 m thick turbidite sand unit above the Perdido Canyon BSR area. Measured BSR extent and gas volume estimates indicate that the NW and SE reservoirs are among the largest gas hydrate occurrences known in the Gulf of Mexico.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security (Final Report)

For the past two decades a slowly growing consensus has been that rising temperature is being caused by increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Earth’s atmosphere. What is less consensual is what to do about it. Solutions range from reducing emissions to various ways to capture CO 2 (from effluents of power plants, as plants, etc.) and store it away from the atmosphere. The problem is of such magnitude that it is likely that we will need many methods. Also some methods would cause draconian harm to global economies. This work is about the storage part of the reducing of CO 2 in the atmosphere. There have been many methods proposed for storing CO 2 : in vegetation, at the bottom of oceans, in land farms, and in subsurface formations. The latter is particularly prominent given the large estimated volume in porous formation in the Earth, and the 50-year old experience in injecting CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery. This report is about the science behind subsurface storage, called here geological carbon storage or GCS. Effective GCS requires that billions of metric tons of CO 2 be injected into storage reservoirs annually. GCS feasibility requires balancing the opposing impacts of large emplacement (injection) rates without compromising caprock seal integrity during injection. Once injected, the challenge is to assure the injected CO 2 remains permanently stored. Under most conditions, CO 2 is in a supercritical state, or scCO 2 . scCO 2 is immiscible with the subsurface brine and has a factor of ten smaller viscosity, leading to the development of two-phase fluid flow and scCO 2 bypassing. After the injection of large volumes of scCO 2 , the pore pressure, state of stress, chemical, thermal, and biological steady-state or equilibrium conditions in the subsurface are disrupted, which may lead to unpredictable behavior because the responses to these changes are often non-linear. Current challenges for efficient and reliable scCO 2 storage are: (1) sustaining large injection rates; (2) using available pore space efficiently, and (3) controlling undesired or unexpected behavior, such as scCO 2 leakage. Various aspects of these challenges are addressed by collaborative projects within Center for Frontiers in Subsurface Energy Security (CFSES). Challenge 1 – Sustaining large storage rates. To offset the annual CO 2 emissions of in the United States, ~7 billion metric tons of CO 2 must be injected into the storage reservoirs annually. Injected CO 2 forms a plume that starts spreading, displacing originally resident brine, though inefficiently so. Because of its low viscosity, and buoyant forces, a CO 2 plume rises to the reservoir rock-caprock interface. Injecting large volumes of scCO 2 at sufficiently high rates into subsurface storage formations leads to increases in pore pressures, potential expansion of the reservoir rock, and may result in fracturing of the reservoir rock and/or caprock. CFSES research uses existing and new experimental and modeling approaches to identify chemical-physical controls on the permeability and pore pressure dynamics, anticipating geomechanical (fracturing) events, predicting multi-phase flow patterns and trapping of CO 2 . Challenge 2 – Using pore space with unprecedented efficiency. Since large volumes of scCO 2 are to be stored, the volume available in storage reservoirs must be used efficiently. Storage efficiency is defined as a fraction of pore space occupied by carbon dioxide. Current estimates are that less than 5 percent of available pore volume is available for storage because scCO 2 , having a smaller density and viscosity than reservoir brine, tends to form viscous fingers, and bypass available pore space. This flow regime results in a CO 2 plume spreading over large areas in subsurface. The research goal in Challenge 2 is to advance the fundamental understanding of two-phase flow through porous media, including molecular-to meter- scale experimental and modeling approaches. This work leads to novel strategies to ensure that injected CO 2 occupies more than 5% of the pore space, ideally up to 50%. Challenge 3 – Controlling undesired or unexpected behavior. Following the injection of scCO 2 , the subsurface reservoir re-equilibrates to different physical and chemical states. This re-equilibration in space and time could lead to unexpected and/or undesired behavior: fracturing of reservoir rock and/or caprock, development of preferential flow paths, CO 2 leakage (to the surface or overlaying fresh water reservoirs), induced seismicity, and activation of faults. One of the main research goals of CFSES was to advance the fundamental understanding of how individual chemical and physical processes are coupled. We particularly focused on the chemical-mechanical coupling, and flow-mechanical coupling. We collected experimental and modeling data to determine the temporal and spatial scales of the coupled processes, which may lead to pore collapse caused by creep, activation of fractures and faults, chemically-induced fracture propagation, and self-focusing of scCO 2 flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Volume Flow Rate Estimation for Small Explosions at Mt. Etna, Italy, From Acoustic Waveform Inversion

Rapid assessment of the volume and the rate at which gas and pyroclasts are injected into the atmosphere during volcanic explosions is key to effective eruption hazard mitigation. Here, we use data from a dense infrasound network deployed in 2017 on Mt. Etna, Italy, to estimate eruptive volume flow rates (VFRs) during small gas-and-ash explosions. We use a finite-difference time-domain approximation to compute the acoustic Green's functions and perform a full waveform inversion for a multipole source, combining monopole and horizontal dipole terms. The inversion produces realistic estimates of VFR, on the order of 4 × 10 4 m 3 /s and well-defined patterns of source directivity. This is the first application of acoustic waveform inversion at Mt. Etna. Our results demonstrate that acoustic waveform inversion is a mature and robust tool for assessment of source parameters and holds potential as a tool to provide rapid estimates of VFR in near real time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗