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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Astronaut Post Flight Bone Fracture

Introduction: Space flight potentially reduces the loading that bone can resist before fracture. This reduction in bone integrity may result from a combination of factors, the most common reported as reduction in astronaut BMD. Although evaluating the condition of bones continues to be a critical aspect of understanding space flight fracture risk, defining the loading regime, whether on earth, in microgravity, or in reduced gravity on a planetary surface, remains a significant component of estimating the fracture risks to astronauts. This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) to understanding pre-, post, and in mission astronaut bone fracture risk. The overview includes an assessment of contributing factors utilized in the BFxRM and illustrates how new information, such as biomechanics of space suit design or better understanding of post flight activities may influence astronaut fracture risk. Opportunities for the bone mineral research community to contribute to future model development are also discussed. Methods: To investigate the conditions in which spaceflight induced changes to bone plays a critical role in post-flight fracture probability, we implement a modified version of the NASA Bone Fracture Risk Model (BFxRM). Modifications included incorporation of variations in physiological characteristics, post-flight recovery rate, and variations in lateral fall conditions within the probabilistic simulation parameter space. The modeled fracture probability estimates for different loading scenarios at preflight and at 0 and 365 days post-flight time periods are compared. Results: For simple lateral side falls, mean post-flight fracture probability is elevated over mean preflight fracture probability due to spaceflight induced BMD loss and is not fully recovered at 365 days post-flight. In the case of more energetic falls, such as from elevated heights or with the addition of lateral movement, the contribution of space flight quality changes is much less clear, indicating more granular assessments, such as Finite Element modeling, may be needed to further assess the risks in these scenarios.

Risk Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗
NASA NTRS1997

Probabilistic Mesomechanical Fatigue Model

A probabilistic mesomechanical fatigue life model is proposed to link the microstructural material heterogeneities to the statistical scatter in the macrostructural response. The macrostructure is modeled as an ensemble of microelements. Cracks nucleation within the microelements and grow from the microelements to final fracture. Variations of the microelement properties are defined using statistical parameters. A micromechanical slip band decohesion model is used to determine the crack nucleation life and size. A crack tip opening displacement model is used to determine the small crack growth life and size. Paris law is used to determine the long crack growth life. The models are combined in a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical distribution of total fatigue life for the macrostructure. The modeled response is compared to trends in experimental observations from the literature.

Tryon, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Analysis of Europan Cycloid Morphology and Implications for Formation Mechanisms

Europa's highly fractured crust has been shown to contain features with a range of differing morphologies. Most lineaments on Europa are believed to have initiated as cracks, although the type of cracking (e.g. tensile vs. shear) remains unclear and may vary for different morphologies. Arcuate lineaments, called cycloids or flexi, have been observed in nearly all imaged regions of Europa and have been modeled as tensile fractures that were initiated in response to diurnal variations in tides. Despite this hypothesis about the formation mechanism, there have been no detailed analyses of the variable morphologies of cycloids. We have examined Galileo images of numerous locations on Europa to develop a catalog of the different morphologies of cycloids. This study focuses on variations in morphology along individual cycloid segments and differences in cusp styles between segments, while illustrating how morphologic evidence can help unravel formation mechanisms. In so doing, we present evidence for cycloid cusps forming due to secondary fracturing during strike-slip sliding on pre-existing cycloid segments.

Marshall, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Thermal stresses, differential subsidence, and flexure at oceanic fracture zones

Geosat geoid undulations over four Pacific fracture zones have been analyzed. After correcting for the isostatic thermal edge effect, the amplitudes of the residuals are shown to be proportional to the age offset. The shape of the residuals seems to broaden with increasing age. Both geoid anomalies and available ship bathymetry data suggest that slip must sometimes occur on the main fracture zone or secondary faults. Existing models for flexure at fracture zones cannot explain the observed anomalies. A combination model accounting for slip and including flexure from thermal stresses and differential subsidence is presented. This model accounts for lateral variations in flexural rigidity from brittle and ductile yielding due to both thermal and flexural stresses and explains both the amplitudes and the shape of the anomalies along each fracture zone. The best fitting models have mechanical plate thicknesses that are described by the depth to the 600-700 C isotherms.

Wessel, Pal↗
NASA NTRS1990

Geoid anomalies over two South Atlantic fracture zones

Seasat altimetry profiles across the Falkland-Agulhas and Ascension fracture zones were examined for evidence of step-like geoid offsets predicted from thermal modeling of the lithosphere. Neither the plate nor the half-space model of lithospheric thermal evolution succeeds in predicting the variations in step height with age across the fracture zone branches considered. For ages less than about 30 Ma, the step offsets decrease in a manner suggesting a plate with a thickness of 50-75 km. At greater ages, the offsets show complex behavior that may be due to bathymetric features adjacent to the fracture zones. Similar geoid patterns on opposite branches of the Falkland-Agulhas fracture zone are indicative of processes that act symmetrically on both sides of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is consistent both with small-scale convection occurring beneath the lithosphere and with bathymetric features originally produced along the ridge crest and now located symmetrically on opposite sides of the ridge. The west flank of the Ascension fracture zone displays a regrowth in step height at about 40 Ma consistent with small-scale convection and in agreement with other studies of Pacific and South Atlantic fracture zones.

Freedman, Adam P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Convection beneath young oceanic lithosphere - Implications for thermal structure and gravity

Small-scale convection under the oceanic lithosphere which begins in the first 5 m.y. of cooling can produce a gravity signal with the amplitude and wavelength observed for large areas of the central Pacific and southern Indian oceans using Seasat altimeter data. The trend of the observed anomalies is parallel to the direction of plate motion as might be expected if they were produced by small-scale convection. Models predict that the wavelengths of gravity anomalies increase more rapidly with age than is observed. The persistence of short relatively uniform wavelength anomalies (less than 200 km) to crustal ages of 50 Ma may indicate that they were produced when the lithosphere was very young and thin and were 'frozen in' as cooling thickened the elastic lithosphere. Small-scale convection which begins under very young lithosphere does not violate other geophysical data such as the rate of seafloor subsidence and variations of geoid height with age. After convection has begun, the subsidence due to thermal contraction within the lithosphere varies linearly with age, in the absence of mantle heat sources, although the rate of change of these quantities is affected by convection. Much of the variation of the geoid height across fracture zones can be fit by a model which includes small-scale convection.

Buck, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Long-Term Strength of Thermoplastic Composites Using Time-Temperature Superposition

Accelerated tests for composite failure were investigated. Constant ramp transverse strength tests on thermoplastic composite specimens were conducted at four temperatures from 300 F to 450 F and five duration times from 0.5 sec to 24 hrs. Up to 400 F, the time-temperature-superposition method produces a master curve allowing strength at longer times to be estimated from strength tests conducted over shorter times but at higher temperatures. The shift factors derived from compliance tests applied well to the strength data. To explain why strength behaved similar to compliance, a viscoelastic fracture model was investigated based on the hypothesis that the work of fracture for crack initiation at some critical flaw remains constant with time and temperature. The model, which used compliance as input, was found to fit the strength data only if the critical fracture energy was allowed to vary with stress rate. Fracture tests using double cantilever beam specimens were conducted from 300 F to 450 F over time scales similar to the strength study. The toughness data showed a significant change with loading rate, less variation with temperature, did not form a master curve, and could not be correlated with the fracture model. Since the fracture model did not fit the fracture data, an alternative explanation based on the dilatational strain energy density was proposed. However the usefulness of this model is severely limited because it relies on a critical parameter which varies with loading rate.

Reeder, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Thermoplastic matrix composites - Finite-element analysis of mode I and mode II failure specimens

A finite-element analysis was conducted to evaluate the stress distributions within mode I and mode II failure specimens, assuming both isotropic and orthotropic elastic material properties. The effects of anisotropy on both the magnitude and the location of the highest stress concentration at the vicinity of the crack tip are significant. The results from modeling realistic blunt crack tip geometry and resin-rich zones imply that local variations in the microstructure strongly influence the stress state near the crack tip and therefore the measured fracture properties. In addition, the features of a viscoelastic model for thermoplastic matrices are described. This model will be used in future investigations of matrix-dominated failure phenomena.

Bankert, Ray J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Accelerated Strength Testing of Thermoplastic Composites

Constant ramp strength tests on unidirectional thermoplastic composite specimens oriented in the 90 deg. direction were conducted at constant temperatures ranging from 149 C to 232 C. Ramp rates spanning 5 orders of magnitude were tested so that failures occurred in the range from 0.5 sec. to 24 hrs. (0.5 to 100,000 MPa/sec). Below 204 C, time-temperature superposition held allowing strength at longer times to be estimated from strength tests at shorter times but higher temperatures. The data indicated that a 50% drop in strength might be expected for this material when the test time is increased by 9 orders of magnitude. The shift factors derived from compliance data applied well to the strength results. To explain the link between compliance and strength, a viscoelastic fracture model was investigated. The model, which used compliance as input, was found to fit the strength data only if the critical fracture energy was allowed to vary with temperature reduced stress rate. This variation in the critical parameter severely limits its use in developing a robust time-dependent strength model. The significance of this research is therefore seen as providing both the indication that a more versatile acceleration method for strength can be developed and the evidence that such a method is needed.

Reeder, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1976

On a 3-D singularity element for computation of combined mode stress intensities

A special three-dimensional singularity element is developed for the computation of combined modes 1, 2, and 3 stress intensity factors, which vary along an arbitrarily curved crack front in three dimensional linear elastic fracture problems. The finite element method is based on a displacement-hybrid finite element model, based on a modified variational principle of potential energy, with arbitrary element interior displacements, interelement boundary displacements, and element boundary tractions as variables. The special crack-front element used in this analysis contains the square root singularity in strains and stresses, where the stress-intensity factors K(1), K(2), and K(3) are quadratically variable along the crack front and are solved directly along with the unknown nodal displacements.

Atluri, S. N.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Repurposing Drilling Control Diagnostics for Subsurface Edge Detection and Boundary Advisement During Planetary Drilling

Informed decision-making during lunar drilling and sampling missions will require data monitoring tools and specialized ground data systems. Accurate and updated situational awareness, with ongoing data monitoring, is critical for timely responses by to incoming science data. Traverse plans and scheduled activities may need to be flexibly changed in order to react to unexpected data or situations. Unlike (for example) Mars missions, the relative lightspeed closeness of the Moon allows for near-real-time ground processing of incoming mission and instrument data. An Apollo-class lunar regolith drill will in a sense “travel” a meter or two vertically at a given subsurface characterization site. As the drill penetrates into lunar regolith, it is likely to encounter a range of material densities, orientations, fracture toughness, and (perhaps) ice percentages. Lunar drill telemetry can provide science teams with a valuable first look into the subsurface structure, the regolith bulk properties, and constituents at each drilled site. Real-time AI-based recognition and reaction to downhole situations has been developed for automated deeper drilling on Mars and beyond. We can leverage the same knowledge bases and pattern-matching as areal-time interpreter of the subsurface, a situational awareness tool during drilling operations. We recently (Sept. 2019) demonstrated this AI drilling monitoring and analysis capability, in control of in-situ drilling and sampling operations, mounted on a KREX-2 rover in Chile’s Atacama Desert. Terrestrial automated drilling log analyses in oil exploration have used similar machine learning techniques in classifying and identifying features in drilling logs –but these typically are designed assuming a drilling fluid influencing downhole measurements and data (permeability, resistivity). Drilling models and existing AI software designed to detect and respond to drilling faults and hard materials can be repurposed, for near-real-time (ground-based) interpretation of drilling telemetry –a potentially valuable advisory tool for strata boundaries and changes in drilling parameters. On the Moon, this approach could be used to study the structure and to some extent the composition of lunar regolith vs. borehole depth, based on recognizable variations in fracture hardness, drilling energy and penetration rates while actively drilling. Since the early 2000s, a series of increasingly-capable real-time drilling telemetry interpretation and characterization software tools have been developed. These subsurface models and software tools have monitored the real-time drilling data received, and automatically identified changes in drill behavior (e.g., encountering a harder target layer, bit inclusions, drill choking due to infall downhole, and others) correlating these with subsurface structures and features. We discuss the mappings between drill borehole parameters, faults or events detected, and modeled changes in rock layer boundaries, in examples drawn from field testing at analog sites in an Arctic impact crater, Rio Tinto, and Chile’s Atacama Desert. These demonstrate how subsurface structural boundaries led to fault detections and responses by the software.

drilling advisor↗
NASA NTRS1989

Toughness distribution considerations in a thin film system

The spontaneous mechanical failure of thin films and occasionally substrates, due to the thin film deposition, are relatively common occurrences. Large internal stresses (e.g. 10 MPa to 100 MPa) are an inherent part of the thin film deposition process. In most cases where fracture mechanics has been applied to thin film systems, the failure path is confined a priori to the substrate-thin film interface or in the thin film perpendicular to that interface. This paper considers the contributions which determine the failure path and presents a qualitative model for identifying the failure path in a thin film system taking into account the presence of residual stresses. The most important aspect of this model is that it offers an explanation of the variation in the locus of failure that does not strictly depend on the weakest point of the material (i.e. the least work of fracture) being the first to fail. It does not, inherent to its construction, restrict failure to the interface a priori. The fracture mechanics criterion of the strain energy release rate equaling the material's resistance to crack growth leads to crack propagation at a specific location and defines the selection of the fracture path.

Brown, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Focal mechanism of deep moonquakes

To elucidate the focal mechanism of deep moonquakes, S-wave polarizations of deep moonquake signals from the A(1) source region are analyzed. At station 12, where the available data are of the highest quality, the variation of polarization angle with the anomalistic phase of the moon indicates agreement with that expected from the focal mechanism model of Nakamura (1978). Focal mechanism solutions were derived for eight A(1) moonquakes assuming that moonquakes are, like earthquakes, caused by a shear fracture on a fault plane. The mechanism solutions generally indicate a nearly horizontal or almost vertical faulting. The slip directions estimated from the solutions are different from one another, again suggesting variation of focal mechanisms as a function of the tidal phase of the moon.

Koyama, J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A reliability-based cost effective fail-safe design procedure

The authors have developed a methodology for cost-effective fatigue design of structures subject to random fatigue loading. A stochastic model for fatigue crack propagation under random loading has been discussed. Fracture mechanics is then used to estimate the parameters of the model and the residual strength of structures with cracks. The stochastic model and residual strength variations have been used to develop procedures for estimating the probability of failure and its changes with inspection frequency. This information on reliability is then used to construct an objective function in terms of either a total weight function or cost function. A procedure for selecting the design variables, subject to constraints, by optimizing the objective function has been illustrated by examples. In particular, optimum design of stiffened panel has been discussed.

Hanagud, S.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel Gears

The majority of helicopter transmission systems utilize spiral bevel gears to convert the horizontal power from the engine into vertical power for the rotor. Due to the cyclical loading on a gear's tooth, fatigue crack propagation can occur. In rotorcraft applications, a crack's trajectory determines whether the gear failure will be benign or catastrophic for the aircraft. As a result, the capability to predict crack growth in gears is significant. A spiral bevel gear's complex shape requires a three dimensional model of the geometry and cracks. The boundary element method in conjunction with linear elastic fracture mechanics theories is used to predict arbitrarily shaped three dimensional fatigue crack trajectories in a spiral bevel pinion under moving load conditions. The predictions are validated by comparison to experimental results. The sensitivity of the predictions to variations in loading conditions and crack growth rate model parameters is explored. Critical areas that must be understood in greater detail prior to predicting more accurate crack trajectories and crack growth rates in three dimensions are identified.

Spievak, Lisa E.↗