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Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Risk-based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO 2 storage projects

This paper by the Energy & Environmental Research Center presents a workflow and modeling approach for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of numerical reservoir simulations to define the AOR. The modeling utilizes 1) semianalytical solutions from the peer-reviewed literature for formation fluid leakage through abandoned wellbores by Raven (1990) and Avci (1994), 2) a FORTRAN model compiled and described in Cihan et al. (2011, 2012) called ASLMA (Analytical Solution for Leakage in Multilayered Aquifers), and 3) a computational framework for estimating a risk-based AOR first proposed by Oldenburg et al. (2014, 2016). Therefore, the approach builds upon well-established research and underlying hydrogeological principles that have been upheld for nearly three decades. Moreover, the ASLMA model has been broadly applied to an array of storage projects. The work presented herein extends these earlier works using a custom wrapper written in the software environment, R (R Core Team, 2020), which was developed to perform multiple runs of the ASLMA model using given ranges for one or more input parameters. In addition, the current work simulates the pressure buildup within the storage reservoir in response to CO 2 injection using a compositional simulator to better accommodate the temporospatial evolution of pressure buildup within the storage reservoir that is more accurately modeled using a heterogeneous geologic model and a compositional simulator that accounts for the multiphase interactions. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the PCOR (Plains CO 2 Reduction) Partnership region. For the storage project evaluated here, under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR essentially collapses to the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume, the incremental leakage is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years, which represents ~0.0001% or less of the total volume of water contained within the USDW rock volume. As discussed in the text, the threshold criterion for defining the risk-based AOR is site-specific and should be informed by the results of the sensitivity analysis and available site characterization data. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and, therefore, comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the U.S. EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential Chemical Impacts of Subsurface CO 2 : An Integrated Experimental and Numerical Assessment for a Case Study of the Ogallala Aquifer

Leakage from geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) reservoirs to overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDW) is a tangible risk. This study is an integrated assessment that combines column experiments and reactive transport simulations of sediments sampled from the Ogallala aquifer above an active commercial-scale GCS site (the Farnsworth Unit in northern Texas). Experimental and simulation results suggest that carbonate mineral (calcite and dolomite) dissolution is the most significant reaction following CO 2 intrusion, and is also the dominant source of trace metal release. Cation exchange is another key mechanism controlling trace metal release by cation interference. Most of the trace metals, including Ba, Sr, As, Pb, and Zn, show a short-term release and quickly drop to the baseline values, suggesting low risk to the overlying USDW quality. Other trace metals, such as Mn and U, exhibit a tangible increase of their concentrations in the beginning, and drop to a higher level compared to the baseline, which may become a potential concern of long-term USDW quality change with CO2introduction. This study provides a comprehensive example of combining laboratory experiments and simulations for assessment of CO 2 -sediment interactions with combined release mechanisms in shallow groundwater aquifers. Data presented here provides useful insights for quantitative risk assessment and effective public education regarding CO 2 geological sequestration, and trace metal reactive transport studies in shallow groundwater aquifers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical Impacts of Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage on Groundwater Quality with Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the Farnsworth Unit

Potential leakage of reservoir fluids is considered a key risk factor for geologic CO2 sequestration (GCS), with concerns of their chemical impacts on the quality of overlying underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Effective risk assessment provides useful information to guide GCS activities for protecting USDWs. In this study, we present a quantified risk assessment case study of an active commercial-scale CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) and sequestration field, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU). Specific objectives of this study include: (1) to quantify potential risks of CO2 and brine leakage to the overlying USDW quality with response surface methodology (RSM); and (2) to identify water chemistry indicators for early detection criteria. Results suggest that trace metals (e.g., arsenic and selenium) are less likely to become a risk due to their adsorption onto clay minerals; no-impact thresholds based on site monitoring data could be a preferable reference for early groundwater quality evaluation; and pH is suggested as an indicator for early detection of a leakage. This study may provide quantitative insight for monitoring strategies on GCS sites to enhance the safety of long-term CO2 sequestration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Underground sources of drinking water chemistry changes in response to potential CO 2 leakage

The purpose of this study was to quantify changes to underground sources of drinking water (USDW) quality in response to potential CO 2 leakage from geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) reservoirs. Here, the developed a framework of combined laboratory experiments and reactive transport simulations and used this framework to evaluate the Ogallala aquifer overlying the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), an active GCS site, as a case study. Using chemical reaction parameters obtained from laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, site-specific mechanisms of CO 2 -water-sediment interactions at the USDW aquifer were interpreted. Long-term risks of potential CO 2 leakage were then evaluated with field-scale numerical models using the regional hydrogeological characteristics and reaction parameters obtained from our experiments and simulations. Results suggest that carbonate mineral impurity and cation exchange are key mechanisms for interactions between CO 2 and the aquifer sediment. Additionally, for a large leakage rate of 0.1 % injection from one leaky well, the leakage plume might impact an area of 300 m in diameter and significantly affect the local water quality by changing pH and cation concentrations (e.g., Zn, Ba and Sr). After leakage ceases, the zone of impacted fluids would not migrate significantly in subsequent decades due to a low regional groundwater flowrate (for this case study). The relatively small area of impact might not be detected in a monitoring well given the broader spacing in a typical field scenario. Effective early leakage detection may require additional tools, e.g., borehole CO 2 movement, four-dimensional seismicity, CO 2 soil flux, samples from deeper aquifers, etc., to ensure effective leakage detection and long-term safety of GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Storage Field Development Plan: One Earth Energy

This Storage Field Development plan presents the Storage Complex characterization results, construction, monitoring, and operational plans, and costs associated with the proposed One Earth Sequestration Carbon Capture and Storage (OES-CCS) site in McLean County, Illinois, near Gibson City. The proposed storage complex, known as the Mt. Simon Storage Complex, comprises the Cambrian Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir and the primary seal, the Cambrian Eau Claire Formation. The lowermost Underground Source of Drinking Water (USDW) identified for the site is the Ordovician St. Peter Sandstone. Geologic characterization of the Mt. Simon Storage Complex at the OES-CCS site was performed by the Illinois Storage Corridor CarbonSAFE Phase III project, which also prepared and submitted three UIC Class VI applications to construct three injection wells; the permit applications were submitted and are in the federal EPA review process. A characterization well, OEE #1, was drilled to collect site-specific data. These data were analyzed and used to develop the UIC Class VI applications. The OEE #1 well will be converted to an in-zone monitoring (IZM) well for the injection phase. The proposed buildout for the OES-CCS site includes (1) three injection wells (OES #1, OES #2, and OES #3), (2) two IZM wells, (3) two above confining zone (ACZ) monitoring wells, one of which will be used to monitor the lowermost USDW, (4) capture and compression facilities, and (5) transportation facilities, i.e., pipelines. A pre-operational testing program was proposed in the Class VI permit application and will be employed at the site pending approval. Additional pre-injection (baseline), syn-injection, and post-injection monitoring and site care procedures will be followed by OES to ensure that injection activities are protective of human health and the environment. Injection is scheduled to begin in 2025, distributed across the three injection wells in accordance with the permit operating conditions. One Earth Sequestration intends to inject up to 90 million tonnes of CO 2 over a period of approximately 20 years. Injection will begin at approximately 0.5 million tonnes of CO 2 annually and ramp up to a maximum of 4.5 million tonnes annually. Daily injection rates are expected to range from 1,400 to 1,500 tonnes per day initially and reach a maximum of approximately 4,225 tonnes per day, depending on site geology and injectivity at each injection well location, and CO 2 availability. The costs associated with the OES-CCS project include pre-operational costs (e. g. additional seismic data acquisition and well drilling), capture and transportation facility and equipment costs, predicted field operating expenditures (OpEx), and decommissioning and post-injection site care (PISC) costs. The risks associated with project activities, such as site construction, injection operations, and verification of secure storage were evaluated, and mitigation strategies proposed to alleviate those risks.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A simulation study of carbon storage with active reservoir management

As part of the Integrated Midcontinent Stacked Carbon Storage Hub (IMSCS-Hub) project led by Battelle Memorial Institute, a study was conducted to determine the feasibility of storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the stacked saline rock formations of the Sleepy Hollow Field (SHF), located in Red Willow County, southern Nebraska. A series of CO 2 injection simulation scenarios, with and without active reservoir management (ARM; brine extraction), were evaluated to investigate the feasibility of storing 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 . The results indicated CO 2 injection combined with ARM may enable permanent storage of 50+ Mt of CO 2 . The area of review (AOR), the area in which underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) might be endangered during CO 2 injection, was assessed for the simulation scenarios. In comparison to a case without ARM, brine extraction resulted in a much smaller AOR, covering an area of 42 square miles (108.8 km 2 ), roughly one-fourth the size of an AOR resulting from CO 2 injection without ARM. Our findings, presented in this paper, indicate that CO 2 injection with ARM can improve the CO 2 storage capacity of a geologic storage complex up to 100% while also reduce the rate of pressure buildup in the subsurface, resulting in a 75% reduction in AOR. This may help in lowering carbon capture and storage project costs, risks, and effort needed to meet monitoring requirements for a storage project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Risk matrix for legacy wells within the Area of Review (AoR) of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) projects

The success of CCS depends on the capacity, injectivity, and confinement by the storage medium. Thousands of wells drilled over the past century with the intention to find the trapped oil and gas may penetrate the containment seals. These wells may provide leakage pathways for the CO 2 to escape and contaminate the underground sources of drinking water (USDW) or reach the surface in the worst-case scenario. Identifying the risky wells penetrating the containment seals and predicting their current as well as future well integrity is the most challenging task when limited data is available. Here, this paper proposes a unique methodology for risk assessment of the wells penetrating the containment seals based on the proximity of these wells from the proposed injection location, mechanical integrity, and accessibility of these wells over the lifecycle of the CCS project. This helps in identifying the wells which need immediate attention from the wells that need little to no attention. It also highlights the corrective actions necessary for the success of the CCS project as well as help estimate the approximate cost required to perform the corrective actions. This methodology focuses on all wells (producers, injectors, orphan, abandoned, water, stratigraphic, etc) while the majority of the studies found in literature focused on wells with sustained casing pressure (SCP) reports and cement bond logs (CBL). The proposed risk matrix, if applied to future CCS projects across the globe, will uniformly categorize the wells within the Area of Review (AoR).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantifying CO 2 Plume Stabilization at Carbon Storage Projects, North Dakota, USA

This study presents an approach for quantifying when injected carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) stabilizes pursuant to carbon capture and storage (CCS) project permitting and site closure requirements. The distribution of mobile-phase CO 2 (CO 2 plume) will evolve within the storage reservoir during and after injection through both physical and chemical trapping mechanisms. CCS policies generally agree that the CO 2 plume’s migratory behavior in post-injection should demonstrate nonendangerment to the environment but do not provide specific guidance on how to meet the definition of plume stabilization, generating some uncertainty for operators. Plume stability herein means the CO 2 plume 1) changes size minimally and predictably in the storage reservoir such that it will not cross key boundaries identified in the permit and 2) does not pose a threat to human health, underground sources of drinking water (USDWs), and the environment because of lateral migration to areas where leakage pathways may exist. Published literature on plume metrics was reviewed to determine which metric(s) may be most appropriate for determining CO 2 plume stability. A technical approach that defines plume stabilization by estimating the rate of change in the geographic footprint of the CO 2 plume with respect to time was developed and illustrated using a case study from North Dakota, USA, as a proposed solution for CCS operators to apply at the project permitting stage. Any prospective CCS operator may benefit from using the same approach to inform the selection of pore space lease and monitoring areas and develop post-injection site care plans.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (Phase III) Underground Source of Drinking Water Monitoring at the Farnsworth Unit

The Ogallala aquifer is identified as the only underground source of drinking water (USDW) aquifer in the vicinity of the FWU. Throughout the span of the SWP project at the FWU, groundwater samples from the Ogallala Aquifer were collected and analyzed on a regular basis to obtain information that reflects the water quality baseline and any potential leakage, and to facilitate effective simulations and risk assessment. To date, hundreds of samples have been collected and tested. The water analysis results suggest that the Ogallala groundwater quality maintains stable and potable, and no leakage is indicated by these data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Workflow for Characterizing Legacy Wells as Potential Leakage Pathways for Integration to NRAP-Open-IAM

Carbon capture and storage is a crucial component of climate change mitigation strategies, involving the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) from point sources and its injection into permeable subsurface formation. Many suitable CO2 storage sites coincide with legacy wells since the conditions that kept hydrocarbons in-situ for thousands of years are also ideal for storage of carbon dioxide. To protect underground sources of drinking water (USDW) during greenhouse gas injection, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mandates area of review evaluations. These evaluations ensure that drinking water sources would not be contaminated by injected fluids. They include identification of legacy wellbores, integrity assessments, and implementing any necessary corrective action. Previous assessment approaches of legacy wells include high-level scoring of regional data and well construction and abandonment evaluation. This work describes a novel methodology that evaluates well construction and abandonment, ranks them based on complexity, and performs a risk assessment with NRAP-Open-IAM. A workflow of the methodology is presented, highlighting its capabilities and limitations.

Wise, Jarrett↗

Illinois Storage Corridor - CarbonSAFE Phase III: Policy, Regulatory, Legal and Permitting Characteristics; Subtask 5.5

The Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project aims to advance the commercial development and implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies within a region in Illinois of suitable geology for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in deep saline aquifers. The project partners have annual emissions greater than 6.5 million tonnes per year; storage hubs are being explored at two sites—one near the One Earth Energy facility in east-central Illinois, and one near the Prairie State Generating Company campus in southwest Illinois. To implement the technology, legal, policy, and economic considerations must be explored. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) administers the Underground Injection Control (UIC) program and is responsible for issuing Class VI permits to construct and operate CO 2 injection wells, i.e., a UIC Class VI well permit is required to inject CO 2 into the subsurface for geologic sequestration. The largest consideration of the Class VI well requirements is to protect underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). Additionally discussed are considerations for Class VI permits relating to public engagement. Besides permitting, property rights to storage sites, subsurface pore spaces, and areas for pipeline transportation must be secured. Pore space rights is still a novel concept being explored and not yet addressed by the Illinois legislature. It is believed that surface property rights are required for the subsurface pore space below, so long as there is not a separated mineral estate in the subsurface. Illinois legislature has addressed securing rights-of-way for CO 2 transportation, allowing for easements and the exercise of eminent domain to secure such rights. Economically, the incentives for CCS are ever-expanding. Recently, the federal government broadened the availability and increased the dollar-amounts for the § 45Q tax credits for geological storage of carbon oxides. Congress has also authorized the Advanced Industrial Facilities Development Program which allocates billions of dollars in funds to installing technology at industrial facilities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. On the state level, Illinois has had its own incentives for CCS projects since 2009 and expanded its emission-related goals again in 2021. The law enacted in 2021 specifically creates a commission to explore implementing CCS at Prairie State Generating Company, a partner on the Illinois Storage Corridor project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prairie State Generating Company Site: Storage Field Development Plan

This Storage Field Development plan presents the Storage Complex characterization results, construction, monitoring, operational plans, and costs associated with the proposed Prairie State Energy Campus - Carbon Capture and Storage (PSEC-CCS) project in Washington County, Illinois, near Marissa. The proposed storage complex, known as the St. Peter-Everton Storage Complex, comprises the St. Peter Sandstone and Everton sandstone reservoirs, with the Maquoketa Shale serving as the primary confining unit and the Knox Group as lower confining unit. The lowermost Underground Source of Drinking Water (USDW) identified for the site is the Pennsylvanian section.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A review of risk and uncertainty assessment for geologic carbon storage

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in geological formations play a key role in mitigating anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and achieving the aggressive goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. Risk and uncertainty assessment is crucial for ensuring the safety and reliability of geologic carbon storage (GCS) by evaluating CO 2 migration in subsurface, forecasting potential leakage and induced seismicity risks, and optimizing operational and monitoring plans. In this review, the use and progress of risk assessment for GCS over the last few decades are examined. Here, we use the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP), which is one of the seven regional partnerships supported by the United States Department of Energy (U.S. DOE), as an example of large-scale CCUS projects in North America. Additionally, future trends and requirements for risk assessment in GCS are discussed. The information provided in this review can help readers understand the significance of risk and uncertainty assessment and apply it effectively in large-scale GCS projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

FutureGen 2.0 Technical Data

This is a comprehensive collection of all original surface and subsurface technical data, as well as various derivative subsurface models, collected from the FutureGen 2.0 project. This collection of data has been vetted for confidential or sensitive documents.

CCUS↗