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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Urbanization exacerbates continental- to regional-scale warming

Urbanization is usually ignored when estimating past changes in large-scale climate and for future climate projections since cities historically covered a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Here, by combining global land surface temperature observations with historical estimates of urban area, we demonstrate that the urban contribution to continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions and countries in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggests further increased urban influence on large-scale surface climate in the future (approximately 0.16 K for North America and Europe for high-emission scenario in 2100). Based on these results, also seen for air temperature, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in climate change assessments. This requires incorporation of dynamic urban extent and biophysics in current-generation Earth system models to quantify potential urban feedback on the climate system across scales.

Chakraborty, TC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature (R T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas (P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban–rural difference in both SOS and R T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R T magnitude in urban areas. Furthermore, these findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contrasting effects of lake breeze and urbanization on heat stress in Chicago metropolitan area

This study used the latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with multi -layer urban canopy models to investigate contrasting effects from urbanization and lake breeze on summer heat stress over the Chicago metropolitan area (CMA). Comparisons between the model and in situ observations show that this coupled modeling system better captures urban locations' diurnal pattern of surface air temperature, skin temperature and relative humidity, with root mean square error reduced from 1.58 to 1.80 degrees C to 1.14-1.31 degrees C, 3.11-3.55 degrees C to 1.81-2.21 degrees C, and 10.73-11.35% to 7.84-8.60%, respectively, compared to WRF without coupling the urban canopy models. Two sensitivity experiments were conducted to isolate the influence of lake breeze and urbanization: one replaced the urban land use with cropland over the CMA, and the other filled all of Lake Michigan with cropland. Three different heat stress indices were computed to assess the uncertainties of heat stress response to changes in air temperature, relative humidity, and wind conditions. Results show that, when the lake has the largest cooling effect on air temperature, it also increases the relative humidity the most, and vice versa for urban warming and drying effects. Urbanization intensifies heat stress at night, and extends the heat caution period by up to 4 h over inland urban grids; the lake breeze relieves heat stress during afternoon (when the heat stress is the worst), and shortens the heat caution period by 1-3 h over inland urban grids and 3-4 h over coastal urban grids. In conclusion, the intensification of heat stress over the CMA due to urbanization is more than four times greater than the reduction from the lake breeze in the late afternoon and evening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) daily for the Conterminous United States

Many current gridded surface meteorological datasets are inadequate for quantifying near surface spatiotemporal variability because they do not fully represent the impacts of land surface heterogeneity. Of note, explicit representation of the spatial structure and magnitude of local urban warming are usually lacking. Here we enhance the representation of spatial meteorological variability over urban areas in the conterminous United States (CONUS) by employing the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS), which accounts for the fine-scale impacts of spatiotemporally varying land surfaces on weather. We also synthesize in situ meteorological data including local mesonets to create a 1 km grid spacing model-observation fusion product spanning 1981-2018 over the CONUS. Daily maximum, minimum, and mean values for a variety of temperature estimates, humidity, and surface energy budget terms, among others, are included. This High-resolution Urban Meteorology for Impacts Dataset (HUMID) will be useful for studies examining spatial variability of near surface meteorology and the impacts of urban heat islands across many disciplines including epidemiology, ecology, and climatology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global urban heat island intensity dataset: Generation, comparison, and analysis

The urban heat island (UHI) effect, a phenomenon of local warming over urban areas, is the most well-known impact of urbanization on climate. Globally consistent estimates of the UHI intensity (UHII) are crucial for examining this phenomenon across time and space. However, publicly available UHII datasets are limited and have several constraints: (1) they are for clear-sky surface UHII, not all-sky surface UHII and canopy (air temperature) UHII; (2) the estimation methods often neglect anthropogenic disturbance, introducing uncertainties in the estimated UHII. To address these issues, this study proposes a new dynamic equal-area (DEA) method that can minimize the influence of various confounding factors on UHII estimates through a dynamic cyclic process. Utilizing the DEA method and leveraging various gridded temperature data, we develop a global-scale (>10,000 cities), long-term (over 20 years by month), and multi-faceted (clear-sky surface, all-sky surface, and canopy) UHII dataset. Further, based on these estimates, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the UHII and its trends in global cities. The UHII is found to be greater than zero in >80% of cities, with global annual average magnitudes around 1.0 °C (day) and 0.8 °C (night) for surface UHII, and close to 0.5 °C for canopy UHII. Furthermore, an interannual upward trend in UHII is observed in >60% of cities, with global annual average trends exceeding 0.1 °C/decade (day) and over 0.06 °C/decade (night) for surface UHII, and slightly surpassing 0.03 °C/decade for canopy UHII. Notably, there exists a positive correlation between the magnitude and trend of UHII, suggesting that cities with stronger UHII tend to experience faster growth in UHII. Additionally, discrepancies in UHII are found between different temperature data, stemming not only from distinctions in data types (surface or air temperature) but also from differences in data acquisition times (Terra or Aqua), weather conditions (clear-sky or all-sky), and processing methodologies (with or without gap filling). Overall, our proposed method, dataset, and analysis results have the potential to provide valuable insights for future urban climate studies. The UHII dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.24821538.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Will cities keep getting hotter? The interplay of urban expansion and greening reshapes future urban heat trajectories

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose growing risks to public health, infrastructure, and resilience. While often assumed to intensify with urban growth, dynamic changes in urban expansion and vegetation greenness complicate UHI trajectories, which remain poorly understood. This study investigated the interplay of urban expansion and greenness change on UHI spatial profile across 36 Chinese megacities during 2003–2018 using multiple satellite products. We introduce a framework that classifies urban areas into four dynamic development pathways based on impervious surface area (ISA) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) trends: urbanized-greening, urbanized-browning, urbanizing-greening (UingG), and urbanizing-browning (UingB). While most urbanized centers exhibited greening driven by targeted initiatives and urbanizing suburbs showed browning due to vegetation loss, about 30% urban areas showed the reverse pattern, revealing overlooked complexity in urban development. Urban expansion and browning strengthened UHI in suburban areas, whereas greening initiatives mitigated UHI in urban center and mitigated UHI enhancement in suburban areas. Slowed warming in urban centers together with accelerated warming in suburban areas flattened the temperature gradient between urban centers and suburbs. This dynamic expanded the spatial extent of elevated temperatures and reshaped the classic urban-to-rural UHI profile into a flatter form. In UingB areas, UHI intensification was jointly driven by increase in ISA, vegetation loss, and their interaction, while in UingG areas, EVI increases and a negative interaction together offset over half of the warming driven by urban expansion. These findings reveal that UHI evolution is not unidirectional but depends on localized urbanization and greening dynamics, offering pathways for strategic heat mitigation.

greening initiative↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal, water, and land cover factors led to contrasting urban and rural vegetation resilience to extreme hot months

Abstract With continuing global warming and urbanization, it is increasingly important to understand the resilience of urban vegetation to extreme high temperatures, but few studies have examined urban vegetation at large scale or both concurrent and delayed responses. In this study, we performed an urban–rural comparison using the Enhanced Vegetation Index and months that exceed the historical 90th percentile in mean temperature (referred to as “hot months”) across 85 major cities in the contiguous United States. We found that hot months initially enhanced vegetation greenness but could cause a decline afterwards, especially for persistent (≥4 months) and intense (≥+2 °C) episodes in summer. The urban responses were more positive than rural in the western United States or in winter, but more negative during spring–autumn in the eastern United States. The east–west difference can be attributed to the higher optimal growth temperatures and lower water stress levels of the western urban vegetation than the rural. The urban responses also had smaller magnitudes than the rural responses, especially in deciduous forest biomes, and least in evergreen forest biomes. Within each biome, analysis at 1 km pixel level showed that impervious fraction and vegetation cover, local urban heat island intensity, and water stress were the key drivers of urban–rural differences. These findings advance our understanding of how prolonged exposure to warm extremes, particularly within urban environments, affects vegetation greenness and vitality. Urban planners and ecosystem managers should prioritize the long and intense events and the key drivers in fostering urban vegetation resilience to heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Urbanization in China on the East Asian Summer Monsoon as Revealed by Two Global Climate Models

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, exerts profound impacts on precipitation in East Asia. In recent decades, China has been experiencing rapid urbanization. It has not yet reached a consensus on its influences on EASM. Here, we introduce satellite‐derived urban impervious areas of China during 1985–2017 into two global climate models with contrasting biases of climatological EASM simulation. Both models consistently show that urbanization weakens EASM by increasing surface friction drag. The increased surface roughness reduces climatological southerly winds in the concentrated urbanization area. As a result, moisture convergence occurs south of the concentrated urbanization area with ascending motion, while moisture divergence with descending motion appears to the north, resulting in the precipitation anomalies of “southern flood and northern drought.” The dominant role of urban dynamic forcing in regulating EASM is confirmed by reducing urban roughness to the level of croplands in sensitivity experiments. As urban dynamic forcing is largely mitigated, the urbanization impact mainly driven by urban thermal forcing conversely strengthens EASM due to enhanced land‐sea thermal contrast via urbanization‐induced warming. Spatial patterns and magnitudes of the urbanization‐induced EASM weakening vary between the two models due to disparities in their simulations of urban thermodynamic forcing and atmospheric adjustments. These results underscore the robust weakening effect of urbanization on EASM by urban friction drag and document uncertainties in the related spatial pattern and magnitude resulting from model discrepancies.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Urban Heat Island and Global Warming Countermeasures on Heat Release and Carbon Dioxide Emissions from a Detached House

Urban air temperature rises induced by the urban heat island (UHIE) effect or by global warming (GW) can be beneficial in winter but detrimental in summer. The SCIENCE-Outdoor model was used to simulate changes to sensible heat release and CO 2 emissions from buildings yielded by four UHIE countermeasures and five GW countermeasures. This model can evaluate the thermal condition of building envelope surfaces, both inside and outside. The results showed that water-consuming UHIE countermeasures such as evaporative space cooling and roof water showering provided positive effects (decreasing sensible heat release and CO 2 emissions related to space conditioning) in summer. Additionally, they had no negative (unwanted cooling) effects in winter since they can be turned off in the heating season. Roof greening can provide the greatest space- conditioning CO 2 emissions reductions among four UHIE countermeasures, and it reduces the amount of heat release slightly in the heating season. Since the effect on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by UHIE countermeasures is not very significant, it is desirable to introduce GW countermeasures in order to reduce CO 2 emissions. The significance of this study is that it constructed the new simulation model SCIENCE-Outdoor and applied it to show the influence of countermeasures upon both heat release and CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

WRF-Comfort: simulating microscale variability in outdoor heat stress at the city scale with a mesoscale model

Abstract. Urban overheating and its ongoing exacerbation due to global warming and urban development lead to increased exposure to urban heat and increased thermal discomfort and heat stress. To quantify thermal stress, specific indices have been proposed that depend on air temperature, mean radiant temperature (MRT), wind speed, and relative humidity. While temperature and humidity vary on scales of hundreds of meters, MRT and wind speed are strongly affected by individual buildings and trees and vary on the meter scale. Therefore, most numerical thermal comfort studies apply microscale models to limited spatial domains (commonly representing urban neighborhoods with building blocks) with resolutions on the order of 1 m and a few hours of simulation. This prevents the analysis of the impact of city-scale adaptation and/or mitigation strategies on thermal stress and comfort. To solve this problem, we develop a methodology to estimate thermal stress indicators and their subgrid variability in mesoscale models – here applied to the multilayer urban canopy parameterization BEP-BEM within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The new scheme (consisting of three main steps) can readily assess intra-neighborhood-scale heat stress distributions across whole cities and for timescales of minutes to years. The first key component of the approach is the estimation of MRT in several locations within streets for different street orientations. Second, mean wind speed and its subgrid variability are downscaled as a function of the local urban morphology based on relations derived from a set of microscale LES and RANS simulations across a wide range of realistic and idealized urban morphologies. Lastly, we compute the distributions of two thermal stress indices for each grid square, combining all the subgrid values of MRT, wind speed, air temperature, and absolute humidity. From these distributions, we quantify the high and low tails of the heat stress distribution in each grid square across the city, representing the thermal diversity experienced in street canyons. In this contribution, we present the core methodology as well as simulation results for Madrid (Spain), which illustrate strong differences between heat stress indices and common heat metrics like air or surface temperature both across the city and over the diurnal cycle.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Winter Warming in North America Induced by Urbanization in China

Rapid urbanization in China in the past several decades has been shown to affect surface air temperature (SAT) locally, but its global impact is unclear. Using a global climate model, we have investigated the potential impact of urbanization in China on SAT at the global scale. The expansion of urban areas in China from 1985 to 2017 leads to winter surface air warming by as much as 0.8°C in North America (NA), largely caused by warm temperature advection due to global-scale atmospheric circulation changes. The East Asian jet stream moves northward in eastern and northeastern China where the expansion of urban areas has increased SAT and sensible heat flux, forcing change of the atmospheric stationary waves and so the structure of the jet streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residential segregation and outdoor urban moist heat stress disparities in the United States

The combined impact of urbanization-induced warming and drying on large-scale heat stress disparities remains unknown, with multicity studies using satellite-derived land surface temperature as a proxy for these disparities. Here, using high-resolution urban-resolving numerical model simulations for 2014–2018, we find pervasive disparities in all-sky average maximum summertime air temperature and moist heat stress metrics across US cities, with higher outdoor heat stress exposure in poorer and primarily non-white census tracts. Ninety-four percent of the US urban population (228 million) live in cities where heat stress burdens the poor, with heat stress inequities between white and non-white populations strongly associated with residential segregation. Similarly, historically redlined neighborhoods show higher heat stress than their non-redlined counterparts, demonstrating how historical segregation relates to present-day environmental inequalities. Our results provide quantitative estimates of physiologically relevant heat stress disparities at the US national scale and highlight potential biases when using satellites as a proxy for these.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming

Although tree cover reduces the urban heat island, no global estimate quantifies air temperature reductions by contemporary or future tree cover, currently and with climate change. Here, we estimate these reductions for all 8,919 large urban areas. Current urban tree cover mitigates 41–49% of the maximum potential air-temperature urban heat island that would occur in the absence of tree canopy. Tree canopy reduces summer air temperature by a population-weighted mean of 0.15 ± 0.03 °C, with wide variation (0.0–2.7 °C), benefiting 914 (805–1040, 95% CI) million people by >0.25 °C. Cooling benefits are greater in already cooler areas: high-income countries and suburbs. Current and plausible future tree cover mitigate only ~10% (6.7–18% and 6.3–17%, respectively) of the median mid-century climate-change warming under a moderate emission scenario. Our results suggest tree canopy expansion in densely settled low-income urban areas is necessary for equitable urban heat island mitigation and climate adaptation.

McDonald, Robert I. [The Nature Conservancy (TNC),↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s

Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surface warming in global cities is substantially more rapid than in rural background areas

Warming trends in cities are influenced both by large-scale climate processes and by local-scale urbanization. However, little is known about how surface warming trends of global cities differ from those characterized by weather observations in the rural background. Here, through statistical analyses of satellite land surface temperatures (2002 to 2021), we find that the mean surface warming trend is 0.50 ± 0.20 K·decade –1 (mean ± one S.D.) in the urban core of 2000-plus city clusters worldwide, and is 29% greater than the trend for the rural background. On average, background climate change is the largest contributor explaining 0.30 ± 0.11 K·decade –1 of the urban surface warming. In city clusters in China and India, however, more than 0.23 K·decade –1 of the mean trend is attributed to urban expansion. We also find evidence of urban greening in European cities, which offsets 0.13 ± 0.034 K·decade –1 of background surface warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗