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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events, which undermines attribution and planning for heatwave impacts. Here, we show how the occurrence and relative probability of observed yet unprecedented events that exceed a priori upper bound estimates, so-called “impossible” temperatures, has changed over time. We find that many unprecedented events are actually within data-driven upper bounds, but only when using modern spatial statistical methods. Furthermore, there are clear connections between anthropogenic forcing and the “impossibility” of the most extreme temperatures. Robust understanding of heatwave thresholds provides critical information about future record-breaking events and how their extremity relates to historical measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Conductivity and Transference Trade-Off in Polymer Electrolytes Using a Robeson-Inspired Upper Bound

The development of high-performance electrolytes is crucial for advancing next-generation lithium and sodium battery technologies. Since the cation is the working ion in both technologies, electrolytes exhibiting the rapid cation transport are essential for making progress. Pathways to optimize electrolytes are unclear due to the inherent trade-off between conductivity and cation transference. While this trade-off is sometimes recognized, there are no well-accepted methodologies for quantifying it. Inspired by the Robeson upper bound for the permeability–selectivity trade-off in gas separation membranes, we propose an approach for quantifying the trade-off in electrolytes using Newman’s concentrated solution theory. We suggest calling this the Newman upper bound. By analyzing published data from 30 polymer electrolytes containing univalent lithium and sodium salts, the Newman upper bound is expressed as κ = 2.0­(1/ρ+ – 1) where κ (mS/cm) is conductivity and ρ+ is the current fraction measured in a symmetric cell as first described by Bruce et al. [J. Electroanal. Chem. Interfacial Electrochem. 1987, 225 (1), 1–17]. This formulation of the upper bound introduces a critical guiding metric for designing next-generation polymer electrolytes; it highlights factors underlying the trade-off, including the salt diffusion coefficient (D), cation transference number relative to solvent velocity ( t + 0 ), and thermodynamic factor (1 + (d lnγ+–)/(d lnm)), where γ+– is the mean molar activity coefficient and m is the molality. These parameters have been measured for very few electrolytes. We posit that establishing the molecular properties that govern these parameters will lead to improved electrolytes that greatly exceed the current upper bound.

He, Zirong↗
DOE OSTI2025

A theoretical study of the upper bound of surface elevation variance in the Phillips initial stage during wind-wave generation

The resonance mechanism in the initial of wind-wave generation proposed by Phillips is a foundation of wind-wave generation theory, but a precise theoretical quantification of wave energy growth in this initial stage has not been obtained yet after more than six decades of research. In this study, we aim to address this knowledge gap by developing an analytical approach based on a novel complex analysis method to theoretically investigate the temporal evolution of the wave energy in the Phillips initial stage. We quantitatively derive and analyse the growth behaviour of the surface wave energy and obtain an analytical solution for its upper bound. Our result highlights the crucial effects of surface tension. Because the phase velocity of gravity–capillary waves has a minimal value at a critical wavenumber, gravity–capillary waves and gravity waves (which neglect surface tension) exhibit distinct resonance curve properties and wave energy growth behaviours. For gravity waves, the resonance curve extends indefinitely; for gravity–capillary waves, it either forms a finite-length curve or does not exist, depending on the wind speed. The leading-order term of the upper-bound solution of the energy of gravity waves increases linearly over time, while for gravity–capillary waves, the term increases linearly over time under strong wind conditions but remains finite under weak wind conditions. This theoretical study provides an analytical framework for the generation of wind-waves in the Phillips initial stage, which may inspire further theoretical, numerical and experimental research.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new upper bound for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting

Abstract The growth factor in Gaussian elimination measures how large the entries of an LU factorization can be relative to the entries of the original matrix. It is a key parameter in error estimates, and one of the most fundamental topics in numerical analysis. We produce an upper bound of for the growth factor in Gaussian elimination with complete pivoting — the first improvement upon Wilkinson's original 1961 bound of .

Bisain, Ankit [Department of Mathematics Massachus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Upper bound on Parity breaking scale for doublet WIMP dark matter

A bstract We consider weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter in a Parity solution to the strong CP problem. The WIMP phenomenology can be drastically affected by the presence of Parity partners of the WIMP and electroweak gauge bosons. We focus on a Parity extension of SU(2) L -doublet fermion dark matter, identify the viable parameter space, and derive the predictions of the theory. We find that the Parity symmetry breaking scale is bounded from above, with the bound given by 25–60 TeV, depending on whether or not dark matter and its Parity partner coannihilate with each other. The High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider, future colliders, and direct and indirect detection experiments can probe the parameter space further, with correlated signal rates.

Baldwin, Matthew J. [University of Chicago; Univer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper Bound on Parity Breaking Scale for Doublet WIMP Dark Matter

We consider weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) dark matter in a Parity solution to the strong CP problem. The WIMP phenomenology can be drastically affected by the presence of Parity partners of the WIMP and electroweak gauge bosons. We focus on a Parity extension of $SU(2)_L$-doublet fermion dark matter, identify the viable parameter space, and derive the predictions of the theory. We find that the Parity symmetry breaking scale is bounded from above, with the bound given by $25-60$ TeV, depending on whether or not dark matter and its Parity partner coannihilate with each other. The High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider, future colliders, and direct and indirect detection experiments can probe the parameter space further, with correlated signal rates.

Baldwin, Matthew J. [Chicago U.; Chicago U., KICP]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration of the polarization angle variability of the Crab Nebula with POLARBEAR and its application to the search for axionlike particles

The Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, is a polarized astronomical source at millimeter wavelengths. It has been used as a stable light source for polarization angle calibration in millimeter-wave astronomy. However, it is known that its intensity and polarization vary as a function of time at a variety of wavelengths. Thus, it is of interest to verify the stability of the millimeter-wave polarization. If detected, polarization variability may be used to better understand the dynamics of Tau A, and for understanding the validity of Tau A as a calibrator. One intriguing application of such observation is to use it for the search of axionlike particles (ALPs). Ultralight ALPs couple to photons through a Chern-Simons term, and induce a temporal oscillation in the polarization angle of linearly polarized sources. After assessing a number of systematic errors and testing for internal consistency, we evaluate the variability of the polarization angle of the Crab Nebula using 2015 and 2016 observations with the 150 GHz P instrument. We place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.06 5 ° over the oscillation frequencies from 0.75 year − 1 to 0.66 hour − 1 . Assuming that no sources other than ALP are causing Tau A’s polarization angle variation, that the ALP constitutes all the dark matter, and that the ALP field is a stochastic Gaussian field, this bound translates into a median 95% upper bound of ALP-photon coupling g a γ γ < 2.16 × 10 − 12 GeV − 1 × ( m a / 10 − 21 eV ) in the mass range from 9.9 × 10 − 23 eV to 7.7 × 10 − 19 eV . This demonstrates that this type of analysis using bright polarized sources is as competitive as those using the polarization of cosmic microwave background in constraining ALPs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Adachi, Shunsuke (ORCID:0000000204007555)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmic millicharge background and reheating probes

We demonstrate that the searches for dark sector particles can provide probes of reheating scenarios, focusing on the cosmic millicharge background produced in the early universe. We discuss two types of millicharge particles (mCPs): either with, or without, an accompanying dark photon. These two types of mCPs have distinct theoretical motivations and cosmological signatures. We discuss constraints from the overproduction and mCP-baryon interactions of the mCP without an accompanying dark photon, with different reheating temperatures. We also consider the ∆n eff constraints on the mCPs from kinetic mixing, varying the reheating temperature. The regions of interest in which the accelerator and other experiments can probe the reheating scenarios are identified in this paper for both scenarios. These probes can potentially allow us to set an upper bound on the reheating temperature down to ~ 10 MeV, much lower than the previously considered upper bound from inflationary cosmology at around ~ 10 16 GeV. In addition, we derive a new “distinguishability condition”, in which the two mCP scenarios may be differentiated by combining cosmological and theoretical considerations. Finally, we discuss the implications of dedicated mCP searches, future CMB-S4 observations, and the target for experiments when considering the minimally allowed reheating temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Weak Gravitational Lensing around Low Surface Brightness Galaxies in the DES Year 3 Data

We present galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements using a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) drawn from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (Y3) data as lenses. LSBGs are diffuse galaxies with a surface brightness dimmer than the ambient night sky. These dark-matter-dominated objects are intriguing due to potentially unusual formation channels that lead to their diffuse stellar component. Given the faintness of LSBGs, using standard observational techniques to characterize their total masses proves challenging. Weak gravitational lensing, which is less sensitive to the stellar component of galaxies, could be a promising avenue to estimate the masses of LSBGs. Our LSBG sample consists of 23,790 galaxies separated into red and blue color types at g - i ≥ 0.60 and g - i < 0.60 , respectively. Combined with the DES Y3 shear catalog, we measure the tangential shear around these LSBGs and find signal-to-noise ratios of 6.67 for the red sample, 2.17 for the blue sample, and 5.30 for the full sample. We use the clustering redshifts method to obtain redshift distributions for the red and blue LSBG samples. Assuming all red LSBGs are satellites, we fit a simple model to the measurements and estimate the host halo mass of these LSBGs to be log(M host /M ⊙ ) = $12.98^{+0.10}_{-0.11}$. We place a 95% upper bound on the subhalo mass at log(M sub /M ⊙ ) < 11.51. By contrast, we assume the blue LSBGs are centrals, and place a 95% upper bound on the halo mass at log(M host /M ⊙ ) < 11.84. We find that the stellar-to-halo mass ratio of the LSBG samples is consistent with that of the general galaxy population. This work illustrates the viability of using weak gravitational lensing to constrain the halo masses of LSBGs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulse-by-pulse transient thermal deformation in crystal optics under high-repetition-rate FEL

Time-domain modeling of the thermal deformation of crystal optics can help define acceptable operational ranges across the pulse-energy repetition-rate phase space. In this paper, we have studied the transient thermal deformation of a water-cooled diamond crystal for a cavity-based X-ray free-electron laser (CBXFEL), either an X-ray free-electron laser oscillator (XFELO) or a regenerative amplifier X-ray free-electron laser (RAFEL), by numerical simulations including finite-element analysis and advanced data processing. Pulse-by-pulse transient thermal deformation of a 50 µm-thick diamond crystal has been performed with X-ray pulse repetition rates between 50 kHz and 1 MHz. Results for temperature and thermal deformation have been compared with the results of transient analysis using a continuous wave (CW) power loading. Temperature and thermal deformation results from pulse-by-pulse transient analysis vary with time about the results for the CW case for the same average power. The variation amplitude increases with pulse energy and decreases with repetition rate. When the repetition rate increases to infinity, both temperature and thermal deformation converge to the results for the CW case. Two critical time scales for the operation of crystal optics in a CBXFEL are (1) first-turn time, i.e. the time for the XFEL pulse to complete the first turn around the cavity so that the crystal sees the recirculated XFEL pulse, and (2) period-end time, i.e. the time that the next electron bunch arrives for the amplification, so that the crystal outcouples the amplified FEL power. For the same average power, simulation results show that the crystal thermal deformation seen by the XFEL beam decreases with repetition rate at the first-turn time of a 300 m-long cavity and increases with repetition rate at the period-end time. For the wavefront preservation requirement of the crystal optics, a pulse-energy versus repetition-rate phase space has been established. The upper bounds of the pulse energy at both first-turn and period-end times decreases with repetition rate, especially at the period-end time. The upper bound of the thermal deformation of the crystal at the period-end time for any repetition frequency can be estimated from the CW case. For a water-cooled diamond crystal of dimension 5 mm × 5 mm × 0.05 mm, the time to reach a quasi steady-state is about 50 ms for temperature and 50 µs for thermal deformation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on the polarization angle oscillations of the Crab Nebula with the Simons Array and its applications to the search for axionlike particles

Here, we present a search for polarization oscillation of the Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, at millimeter wavelengths using observations with the Simons Array, the successor experiment to POLARBEAR. We follow up on previous work by POLARBEAR using 90 GHz band data of the 2023 observing season of the Simons Array to evaluate the variability of Tau A’s polarization angle. Tau A is widely used as a polarization angle calibration source in millimeter-wave astronomy, and thus it is necessary to validate the stability. Additionally, an interesting application of the time-resolved polarimetry of Tau A is to search for axionlike particles (ALPs). We do not detect a global signal across the frequencies considered in this analysis and place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.12° over oscillation frequencies from 3.39 yr -1 to 1.50 day -1 . This constrains the ALP-photon coupling at a median 95% upper bound of g aγγ < 3.84 × 10 -12 × (m a /10 -21 eV) in the mass range from 4.4 × 10 -22 to 7.2 × 10 -20 eV, assuming the ALP constitutes all of dark matter, its field is a stochastic Gaussian field, and it is the sole source of Tau A’s polarization angle oscillation. Additionally, we do not detect signal at the frequencies where 2.5σ hints were previously reported by POLARBEAR, but we do not exclude these signals at the 95% confidence level.

Adkins, Tylor [University of California, Berkeley]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Randomized Adiabatic Quantum Linear Solver Algorithm with Optimal Complexity Scaling and Detailed Running Costs

Solving linear systems of equations is a fundamental problem with a wide variety of applications across many fields of science, and there is increasing effort to develop quantum linear solver algorithms. Subaşı et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 060504 (2019)] proposed a randomized algorithm inspired by adiabatic quantum computing, based on a sequence of random Hamiltonian simulation steps, with suboptimal scaling in the condition number 𝜅 of the linear system and the target error 𝜖. Here we go beyond these results in several ways. Firstly, using filtering [Lin and Tong, Quantum 4, 361 (2020)] and Poissonization techniques [Cunningham and Roland, ArXiv:2406.03972 (2024)], the algorithm complexity is improved to the optimal scaling 𝑂⁡(𝜅⁢log (1/𝜖))—an exponential improvement in 𝜖, and a shaving of a log 𝜅 scaling factor in 𝜅. Secondly, the algorithm is further modified to achieve constant factor improvements, which are vital as we progress towards hardware implementations on fault-tolerant devices. We introduce a cheaper randomized walk operator method replacing Hamiltonian simulation—which also removes the need for potentially challenging classical precomputations; randomized routines are sampled over optimized random variables; circuit constructions are improved. We obtain a closed formula rigorously upper bounding the expected number of times one needs to apply a block-encoding of the linear system matrix to output a quantum state encoding the solution to the linear system. The upper bound is 837⁢𝜅 at 𝜖 = 10 −10 for Hermitian matrices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spectral Bounds on Hyperbolic 3-Manifolds: Associativity and the Trace Formula

We constrain the low-energy spectra of Laplace operators on closed hyperbolic manifolds and orbifolds in three dimensions, including the standard Laplace--Beltrami operator on functions and the Laplacian on powers of the cotangent bundle. Our approach employs linear programming techniques to derive rigorous bounds by leveraging two types of spectral identities. The first type, inspired by the conformal bootstrap, arises from the consistency of the spectral decomposition of the product of Laplace eigensections, and involves the Laplacian spectra as well as integrals of triple products of eigensections. We formulate these conditions in the language of representation theory of PSL 2 (C) and use them to prove upper bounds on the first and second Laplacian eigenvalues. The second type of spectral identities follows from the Selberg trace formula. We use them to find upper bounds on the spectral gap of the Laplace--Beltrami operator on hyperbolic 3-orbifolds, as well as on the systole length of hyperbolic 3-manifolds, as a function of the volume. Further, we prove that the spectral gap λ 1 of the Laplace--Beltrami operator on all closed hyperbolic 3-manifolds satisfies λ 1 < 47.32. Along the way, we use the trace formula to estimate the low-energy spectra of a large set of example orbifolds and compare them with our general bounds, finding that the bounds are nearly sharp in several cases.

Bonifacio, James [University of Mississippi, MS (U↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bounds on spectral gaps of Hyperbolic spin surfaces

We describe a method for constraining Laplacian and Dirac spectra of two dimensional compact orientable hyperbolic spin manifolds and orbifolds. The key ingredient is an infinite family of identities satisfied by the spectra. These spectral identities follow from the consistency between 1) the spectral decomposition of functions on the spin bundle into irreducible representations of SL(2,R) and 2) associativity of pointwise multiplication of functions. Applying semidefinite programming methods to our identities produces rigorous upper bounds on the Laplacian spectral gap as well as on the Dirac spectral gap conditioned on the former. In several examples, our bounds are nearly sharp; a numerical algorithm based on the Selberg trace formula shows that the [0;3,3,5] orbifold, a particular surface with signature [1;3], and the Bolza surface nearly saturate the bounds at genus 0, 1 and 2 respectively. Under additional assumptions on the number of harmonic spinors carried by the spin-surface, we obtain more restrictive bounds on the Laplacian spectral gap. In particular, these bounds apply to hyperelliptic surfaces. We also determine the set of Laplacian spectral gaps attained by all compact orientable two-dimensional hyperbolic spin orbifolds. We show that this set is upper bounded by 12.13798; this bound is nearly saturated by the [0;3,3,5] orbifold, whose first non-zero Laplacian eigenvalue is λ^(0)_1 ≈ 12.13623.

Spectral theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining off-shell Higgs boson production and the Higgs boson total width using WW → ℓνℓν final states with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of off-shell Higgs boson production is performed in the H* → WW channel. The measurement uses a proton–proton collision dataset with an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Final states in which both W bosons decay leptonically are targeted, and events are categorised based on the flavour of the final-state leptons, the jet multiplicity, and the output of neural network-based classifiers. The data are found to be compatible with the Standard Model expectation. An observed (expected) upper bound on the 95 % symmetric confidence level interval is set on the rate of off-shell Higgs boson production at a value of 3.4 (4.4) times the Standard Model prediction. These results are combined with the results from the measurement of on-shell Higgs boson production in the same final states to obtain an observed (expected) upper bound at 95 % confidence level on the Higgs boson total width of 13.1 (17.3) MeV.

Aad, G. [Aix-Marseille Univ., Marseille (France)] ↗