Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “unpredictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane

Landscape drying associated with permafrost thaw is expected to enhance microbial methane oxidation in arctic soils. Here we show that ice-rich, Yedoma permafrost deposits, comprising a disproportionately large fraction of pan-arctic soil carbon, present an alternate trajectory. Field and laboratory observations indicate that talik (perennially thawed soils in permafrost) development in unsaturated Yedoma uplands leads to unexpectedly large methane emissions (35–78 mg m -2 d -1 summer, 150–180 mg m -2 d -1 winter). Upland Yedoma talik emissions were nearly three times higher annually than northern-wetland emissions on an areal basis. Approximately 70% emissions occurred in winter, when surface-soil freezing abated methanotrophy, enhancing methane escape from the talik. Remote sensing and numerical modeling indicate the potential for widespread upland talik formation across the pan-arctic Yedoma domain during the 21 st and 22 nd centuries. Contrary to current climate model predictions, these findings imply a positive and much larger permafrost-methane-climate feedback for upland Yedoma.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochasticity in microbiology: managing unpredictability to reach the Sustainable Development Goals

Pure (single) cultures of microorganisms and mixed microbial communities (microbiomes) have been important for centuries in providing renewable energy, clean water and food products to human society and will continue to play a crucial role to pursue the Sustainable Development Goals. To use microorganisms effectively, microbial engineered processes require adequate control. Microbial communities are shaped by manageable deterministic processes, but also by stochastic processes, which can promote unforeseeable variations and adaptations. Here, we highlight the impact of stochasticity in single culture and microbiome engineering. First, we discuss the concepts and mechanisms of stochasticity in relation to microbial ecology of single cultures and microbiomes. Second, we discuss the consequences of stochasticity in relation to process performance and human health, which are reflected in key disadvantages and important opportunities. Third, we propose a suitable decision tool to deal with stochasticity in which monitoring of stochasticity and setting the boundaries of stochasticity by regulators are central aspects. Stochasticity may give rise to some risks, such as the presence of pathogens in microbiomes. We argue here that by taking the necessary precautions and through clever monitoring and interpretation, these risks can be mitigated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Traceable random numbers from a non-local quantum advantage

The unpredictability of random numbers is fundamental to both digital security and applications that fairly distribute resources. However, existing random number generators have limitations—the generation processes cannot be fully traced, audited and certified to be unpredictable. The algorithmic steps used in pseudorandom number generators are auditable, but they cannot guarantee that their outputs were a priori unpredictable given knowledge of the initial seed. Device-independent quantum random number generators can ensure that the source of randomness was unknown beforehand, but the steps used to extract the randomness are vulnerable to tampering. Here we demonstrate a fully traceable random number generation protocol based on device-independent techniques. Our protocol extracts randomness from unpredictable non-local quantum correlations, and uses distributed intertwined hash chains to cryptographically trace and verify the extraction process. This protocol forms the basis for a public traceable and certifiable quantum randomness beacon that we have launched. Over the first 40 days of operation, we completed the protocol 7,434 out of 7,454 attempts—a success rate of 99.7%. Each time the protocol succeeded, the beacon emitted a pulse of 512 bits of traceable randomness. The bits are certified to be uniform with error multiplied by actual success probability bounded by 2−64. Further, the generation of certifiable and traceable randomness represents a public service that operates with an entanglement-derived advantage over comparable classical approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compiler and Runtime Approaches to Enable Large-Scale Irregular Programs. Final report, July 2013 - July 2019

While regular algorithms, characterized by operations on dense matrices and arrays, have long been the mainstay of scientific, high-performance computing, irregular algorithms, which feature unpredictable accesses to pointer-based data structures, are becoming increasingly common in high performance computing, arising in graph analysis, data mining and visualization, among other domains. Unfortunately, the defining characteristics of irregular applications, their dynamic, unpredictable, data-dependent access patterns and data layouts, make achieving high performance on large scale systems difficult. Scaling applications to peta- and exa-scale requires carefully controlling communication and data movement and placement, an inherently difficult task when access patterns and data layouts are unpredictable! Most irregular applications that attain high performance must be painstakingly hand-written and hand-tuned, with few common principles or paradigms uniting various implementations and easing future development. Despite the increasing importance of irregular applications, there is little programmer knowledge, and even less compiler ability, devoted to optimizing them. This project aims to solve these problems. By allowing programmers to write irregular applications in high level forms, with at most a few annotations highlighting key structural properties, programmers can focus on developing their algorithms and methods. The compiler and run-time system can take on the tedious task of optimizing the application for execution at large scales, and can automatically provide efficient implementations. This will provide portability and ease maintenance for existing irregular applications, but, more importantly, open up whole new domains of computational science to large-scale, high-performance simulation codes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Filament-Free Bulk Resistive Memory Enables Deterministic Analogue Switching

Digital computing is nearing its physical limits as computing needs and energy consumption rapidly increase. Analogue-memory-based neuromorphic computing can be orders of magnitude more energy efficient at data-intensive tasks like deep neural networks, but has been limited by the inaccurate and unpredictable switching of analogue resistive memory. Filamentary resistive random access memory (RRAM) suffers from stochastic switching due to the random kinetic motion of discrete defects in the nanometer-sized filament. Here, this stochasticity is overcome by incorporating a solid electrolyte interlayer, in this case, yttria-stabilized zirconia (YSZ), toward eliminating filaments. Filament-free, bulk-RRAM cells instead store analogue states using the bulk point defect concentration, yielding predictable switching because the statistical ensemble behavior of oxygen vacancy defects is deterministic even when individual defects are stochastic. Both experiments and modeling show bulk-RRAM devices using TiO2-X switching layers and YSZ electrolytes yield deterministic and linear analogue switching for efficient inference and training. Bulk-RRAM solves many outstanding issues with memristor unpredictability that have inhibited commercialization, and can, therefore, enable unprecedented new applications for energy-efficient neuromorphic computing. Beyond RRAM, this work shows how harnessing bulk point defects in ionic materials can be used to engineer deterministic nanoelectronic materials and devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rubisco activity and activation state dictate photorespiratory plasticity in Betula papyrifera acclimated to future climate conditions

Plant metabolism faces a challenge of investing enough enzymatic capacity to a pathway without overinvestment. As it takes energy and resources to build, operate, and maintain enzymes, there are benefits and drawbacks to accurately matching capacity to the pathway influx. The relationship between functional capacity and physiological load could be explained through symmorphosis, which would quantitatively match enzymatic capacity to pathway influx. Alternatively, plants could maintain excess enzymatic capacity to manage unpredictable pathway influx. In this study, we use photorespiration as a case study to investigate these two hypotheses in Betula papyrifera. This involves altering photorespiratory influx by manipulating the growth environment, via changes in CO 2 concentration and temperature, to determine how photorespiratory capacity acclimates to environmental treatments. Surprisingly, the results from these measurements indicate that there is no plasticity in photorespiratory capacity in B. papyrifera, and that a fixed capacity is maintained under each growth condition. The fixed capacity is likely due to the existence of reserve capacity in the pathway that manages unpredictable photorespiratory influx in dynamic environments. Additionally, we found that B. papyrifera had a constant net carbon assimilation under each growth condition due to an adjustment of functional rubisco activity driven by changes in activation state. These results provide insight into the acclimation ability and limitations of B. papyrifera to future climate scenarios currently predicted in the next century.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effects of earth model uncertainty on the inversion of seismic data for seismic source functions

SUMMARY We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of earth model uncertainty on the estimation of the seismic source time functions that correspond to the six independent components of the point source seismic moment tensor. Specifically, we invert synthetic data using Green’s functions estimated from a suite of earth models that contain stochastic density and seismic wave-speed heterogeneities. We find that the primary effect of earth model uncertainty on the data is that the amplitude of the first-arriving seismic energy is reduced, and that this amplitude reduction is proportional to the magnitude of the stochastic heterogeneities. Also, we find that the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions can be under- or overestimated, depending on the stochastic earth model used to create the data. This effect is totally unpredictable, meaning that uncertainty in the earth model can lead to unpredictable biases in the amplitude of the estimated seismic source functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic Adaptive Droop Control in Frequency Regulation of Power Systems With Intermittent Generators

Modern power systems (MPSs), including microgrids (MGs), are increasingly incorporating multiple renewable energy sources (RESs) such as wind and solar power, as well as battery storage and controllable loads. While environmentally beneficial, these sources pose challenges for control and management due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, especially in maintaining frequency stability with multiple interconnected generators of varying capacities. Traditional droop control methods are effective in systems with generators that are dispatchable and have fixed generation capacities, but they fall short when applied to systems with RESs, where generation capacities are dynamic and affected by unpredictable environmental conditions. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel stochastic adaptive droop control (SADC) method for load frequency control (LFC). The proposed method adapts droop coefficients in real time, based on the measured stochastic data of power generation capacities, enabling more effective frequency regulation in systems with variable and intermittent power generation. Unlike traditional adaptive control methods, which assume constant or slowly-varying system parameters, this approach accounts for stochastic processes by modeling them as Markov chains, enabling robust performance under highly dynamic and unpredictable conditions. The key contributions of this work include the development of real-time droop coefficient adaptation algorithms, derivation of their stability and convergence properties, and the demonstration of the advantages of the method through simulations. Case studies highlight the improved performance of frequency regulation, particularly in addressing the impact of stochastic weather conditions and the benefits of reducing dependence on battery reserves in dealing with intermittency of RESs. Finally, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the theoretical foundations of the method, as well as practical implementation insights for future power systems with high penetration of RESs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Memory Footprint Access Diagnostics

Footprint and reuse distance measure temporal locality and therefore do not capture the significance of access patterns (spacial locality). A strided access pattern has the largest possible footprint but usually has the best performance. To highlight exposed memory latency, we separate footprint into strided (prefetchable) and irregular (non-prefetchable) access components and calculate the growth rate of each. To rapidly compute these footprint access diagnostics, we present two methods, whole-program and precise. Current footprint analyses can cause 200× or more slowdown with realistic inputs and are therefore impractical. Our whole-program method reduces the overhead to 10% by computing upper bounds, but still yields inter-procedural insight through a call path profile. Our precise method uses additional static analysis and profiling to refine the upper bounds for intra-procedural loop nests. We evaluate our approaches using benchmarks that vary access patterns (strided \vs unpredictable), sparsity (all words in a cache line \vs some), and reuse (varying and repeated accesses per element). Notably, for loop nests with unpredictable accesses, the precise method's accuracy is within 10% of ideal. The whole-program method has sufficient accuracy to diagnose bottlenecks.

data locality, memory footprint, footprint access ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modulation and Modeling of Three-Dimensional Nanowire Assemblies Targeting Gas Sensors with High Response and Reliability

Despite improved sensitivity, simple downsizing of gas-sensing components to randomly arranged nanostructures often faces challenges associated with unpredictable electrical conduction pathways. In the present study, controlled fabrication of three-dimensional (3D) metal oxide nanowire networks is demonstrated that can greatly improve both signal stability and sensor response compared to random nanowire arrays. For example, the highest ever reported H 2 S gas response value, and a 5 times lower relative standard deviation of baseline resistance than that of random nanowires assemblies, are achieved with the ordered 3D nanowire network. Systematic engineering of 3D geometries and their modeling, utilizing equivalent circuit components, provide additional insights into the electrical conduction and gas-sensing response of 3D assemblies, revealing the critical importance of wire-to-wire junction points and their arrangement. Here these findings suggest new design rules for both enhanced performance and reliability of chemical sensors, which may also be extended to other devices based on nanoscale building blocks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pathway Evolution Through a Bottlenecking-Debottlenecking Strategy and Machine Learning-Aided Flux Balancing

The evolution of pathway enzymes enhances the biosynthesis of high-value chemicals, crucial for pharmaceutical, and agrochemical applications. However, unpredictable evolutionary landscapes of pathway genes often hinder successful evolution. Here, the presence of complex epistasis is identifued within the representative naringenin biosynthetic pathway enzymes, hampering straightforward directed evolution. Subsequently, a biofoundry-assisted strategy is developed for pathway bottlenecking and debottlenecking, enabling the parallel evolution of all pathway enzymes along a predictable evolutionary trajectory in six weeks. This study then utilizes a machine learning model, ProEnsemble, to further balance the pathway by optimizing the transcription of individual genes. The broad applicability of this strategy is demonstrated by constructing an Escherichia coli chassis with evolved and balanced pathway genes, resulting in 3.65 g L -1 naringenin. The optimized naringenin chassis also demonstrates enhanced production of other flavonoids. This approach can be readily adapted for any given number of enzymes in the specific metabolic pathway, paving the way for automated chassis construction in contemporary biofoundries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diastereoselective Hydrogenation of Tetrasubstituted Olefins using a Heterogeneous Pt‐Ni Alloy Catalyst

Abstract Stereoselective hydrogenation of tetrasubstituted olefins is an attractive method to access compounds with two contiguous stereocenters. However, homogeneous catalysts for enantio‐ and diastereoselective hydrogenation exhibit low reactivity toward tetrasubstituted olefins due to steric crowding between the ligand scaffold and the substrate. Monometallic heterogeneous catalysts, on the other hand, provide accessible surface active sites for hindered olefins but exhibit unpredictable and inconsistent stereoinduction. In this work, we develop a Pt−Ni bimetallic alloy catalyst that can diastereoselectively hydrogenate unactivated, sterically‐bulky tetrasubstituted olefins, utilizing the more oxophilic Ni atoms to adsorb a hydroxyl directing group and direct facially‐selective hydrogen addition to the olefin via the Pt atoms. Structure‐activity studies on several Pt−Ni compositions underscore the importance of exposing a uniform PtNi alloy surface to achieve high diastereoselectivity and minimize side reactions. The optimized Pt−Ni/SiO 2 catalyst exhibits good functional group tolerance and broad scope for tetrasubstituted olefins in a cyclopentene scaffold, generating cyclopentanol products with three contiguous stereocenters. The synthetic utility of the method is demonstrated in a four‐step synthesis of (1R,2S)‐(+)‐cis‐methyldihydrojasmonate with high yield and enantiopurity.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cation Adaptive Structures Based on Manganese Cyanide Prussian Blue Analogues: Application of Powder Diffraction Data to Solve Complex, Unprecedented Stoichiometries and New Structure Types

Abstract A Mn(II) salt and A + CN − under anaerobic conditions react to form 2‐D and 3‐D extended structured compounds of A m Mn II n (CN) m+2n stoichiometry. Here, the creation and characterization of this large family of compounds, for example AMn II 3 (CN) 7 , A 2 Mn II 3 (CN) 8 , A 2 Mn II 5 (CN) 12 , A 3 Mn II 5 (CN) 13 , and A 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ], where A represents alkali and tetraalkylammonium cations, is reviewed. Cs 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ] has the typical Prussian blue face centered cubic unit cell. However, the other alkali salts are monoclinic or rhombohedral. This is in accord with smaller alkali cation radii creating void space that is minimized by increasing the van der Waals stabilization energy by reducing ∠Mn−N≡C, which, strengthens the magnetic coupling and increases the magnetic ordering temperatures. This is attributed to the non‐rigidity of the framework structure due the significant ionic character associated with the high‐spin Mn II sites. For larger tetraalkylammonium cations, the high‐spin Mn sites lack sufficient electrostatic A + ⋅⋅⋅NC stabilization and form unexpected 4‐ and 5‐coordinated Mn sites within a flexible, extended framework around the cation; hence, the size, shape, and charge of the cation dictate the unprecedented stoichio‐metry and unpredictable cation adaptive structures. Antiferromagnetic coupling between adjacent Mn II sites leads to ferrimagnetic ordering, but in some cases antiferromagnetic coupling of ferrimagnetic layers are compensated and synthetic antiferromagnets are observed. The magnetic ordering temperatures for ferrimagnetic A 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ] with both octahedral high‐ and low‐spin Mn II sites increase with decreasing ∠Mn−N≡C. The crystal structures for all of the extended structured materials were obtained by powder diffraction.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

State changes: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the “state change” theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo(tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds(the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across adverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Arabidopsis T‐DNA mutant SALK_008491 carries a 14‐kb deletion on chromosome 3 that provides rare insights into the plant response to dynamic light stress

Abstract In nature, plants experience rapid changes in light intensity and quality throughout the day. To maximize growth, they have established molecular mechanisms to optimize photosynthetic output while protecting components of the light‐dependent reaction and CO 2 fixation pathways. Plant phenotyping of mutant collections has become a powerful tool to unveil the genetic loci involved in environmental acclimation. Here, we describe the phenotyping of the transfer‐DNA (T‐DNA) insertion mutant line SALK_008491, previously known as nhd1‐1 . Growth in a fluctuating light regime caused a loss in growth rate accompanied by a spike in photosystem (PS) II damage and increased non‐photochemical quenching (NPQ). Interestingly, an independent nhd1 null allele did not recapitulate the NPQ phenotype. Through bulk sequencing of a backcrossed segregating F 2 pool, we identified an ~14‐kb large deletion on chromosome 3 (Chr3) in SALK_008491 affecting five genes upstream of NHD1 . Besides NHD1 , which encodes for a putative plastid Na + /H + antiporter, the stromal NAD‐dependent D‐3‐phosphoglycerate dehydrogenase 3 ( PGDH3 ) locus was eradicated. Although some changes in the SALK_008491 mutant's photosynthesis can be assigned to the loss of PGDH3, our follow‐up studies employing respective single mutants and complementation with overlapping transformation‐competent artificial chromosome (TAC) vectors reveal that the exacerbated fluctuating light sensitivity in SALK_008491 mutants result from the simultaneous loss of PGDH3 and NHD1. Altogether, the data obtained from this large deletion‐carrying mutant provide new and unintuitive insights into the molecular mechanisms that function to protect the photosynthetic machinery. Moreover, our study renews calls for caution when setting up reverse genetic studies using T‐DNA lines. Although second‐site insertions, indels, and SNPs have been reported before, large deletion surrounding the insertion site causes yet another problem. Nevertheless, as shown through this research, such unpredictable genetic events following T‐DNA mutagenesis can provide unintuitive insights that allow for understanding complex phenomena such as the plant acclimation to dynamic high light stress.

Lopez, Laura S.↗