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At least 19 records

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events, which undermines attribution and planning for heatwave impacts. Here, we show how the occurrence and relative probability of observed yet unprecedented events that exceed a priori upper bound estimates, so-called “impossible” temperatures, has changed over time. We find that many unprecedented events are actually within data-driven upper bounds, but only when using modern spatial statistical methods. Furthermore, there are clear connections between anthropogenic forcing and the “impossibility” of the most extreme temperatures. Robust understanding of heatwave thresholds provides critical information about future record-breaking events and how their extremity relates to historical measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Li 21 Ge 8 P 3 S 34 : New Lithium Superionic Conductor with Unprecedented Structural Type

Abstract Lithium superionic conductors are pivotal for enabling all‐solid‐state batteries, which aim to replace liquid electrolytes and enhance safety. Herein, we report the discovery of an unprecedented lithium superionic conductor, Li 21 Ge 8 P 3 S 34 , featuring a novel structural type and a new composition in the Li–Ge–P–S system. This material exhibits high lithium ionic conductivity of approximately 1.0 mS cm −1 at 303 K with a low activation energy of 0.20(1) eV. It's unique crystal structure was elucidated using three‐dimensional electron diffraction (3D ED) and further refined through combined powder X‐ray and neutron diffraction analyses. The structure consists of alternating two‐dimensional slabs: one of corner‐sharing GeS 4 tetrahedra and the other of isolated PS 4 tetrahedra, enabling efficient lithium‐ion transport through a tetrahedrally interconnected network of 1D, 2D, and 3D diffusion pathways. This distinctive structural motif provides a novel design strategy for next‐generation solid electrolytes, broadening the structural landscape of lithium superionic conductors. With further advancements in compositional tuning and interfacial engineering, Li 21 Ge 8 P 3 S 34 could contribute to the development of high‐performance all‐solid‐state batteries.

Chemistry↗

Cation Adaptive Structures Based on Manganese Cyanide Prussian Blue Analogues: Application of Powder Diffraction Data to Solve Complex, Unprecedented Stoichiometries and New Structure Types

Abstract A Mn(II) salt and A + CN − under anaerobic conditions react to form 2‐D and 3‐D extended structured compounds of A m Mn II n (CN) m+2n stoichiometry. Here, the creation and characterization of this large family of compounds, for example AMn II 3 (CN) 7 , A 2 Mn II 3 (CN) 8 , A 2 Mn II 5 (CN) 12 , A 3 Mn II 5 (CN) 13 , and A 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ], where A represents alkali and tetraalkylammonium cations, is reviewed. Cs 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ] has the typical Prussian blue face centered cubic unit cell. However, the other alkali salts are monoclinic or rhombohedral. This is in accord with smaller alkali cation radii creating void space that is minimized by increasing the van der Waals stabilization energy by reducing ∠Mn−N≡C, which, strengthens the magnetic coupling and increases the magnetic ordering temperatures. This is attributed to the non‐rigidity of the framework structure due the significant ionic character associated with the high‐spin Mn II sites. For larger tetraalkylammonium cations, the high‐spin Mn sites lack sufficient electrostatic A + ⋅⋅⋅NC stabilization and form unexpected 4‐ and 5‐coordinated Mn sites within a flexible, extended framework around the cation; hence, the size, shape, and charge of the cation dictate the unprecedented stoichio‐metry and unpredictable cation adaptive structures. Antiferromagnetic coupling between adjacent Mn II sites leads to ferrimagnetic ordering, but in some cases antiferromagnetic coupling of ferrimagnetic layers are compensated and synthetic antiferromagnets are observed. The magnetic ordering temperatures for ferrimagnetic A 2 Mn II [Mn II (CN) 6 ] with both octahedral high‐ and low‐spin Mn II sites increase with decreasing ∠Mn−N≡C. The crystal structures for all of the extended structured materials were obtained by powder diffraction.

Chemistry↗

Full Detector Simulation with Unprecedented Background Occupancy at a Muon Collider

In recent years, a Muon collider has attracted a lot of interest in the high-energy physics community, thanks to its ability of achieving clean interaction signatures at multi-TeV collision energies in the most cost-effective way. Estimation of the physics potential of such an experiment must take into account the impact of beam-induced background on the detector performance, which has to be carefully evaluated using full detector simulation. Tracing of all the background particles entering the detector region in a single bunch crossing is out of reach for any realistic computing facility due to the unprecedented number of such particles. To make it feasible a number of optimisations have been applied to the detector simulation workflow. This contribution presents an overview of the main characteristics of the beam-induced background at a Muon collider, the detector technologies considered for the experiment and how they are taken into account to strongly reduce the number of irrelevant computations performed during the detector simulation. Special attention is dedicated to the optimisation of track reconstruction with the conformal tracking algorithm in this high-occupancy environment, which is the most computationally demanding part of event reconstruction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Li 2 GeS 3 : Lithium Ionic Conductor with an Unprecedented Structural Type

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are widely used in electric vehicles, mobile electronic devices, and large-scale stationary energy storage systems. However, their liquid electrolytes present significant safety concerns due to their inherent flammability. To address this, the focus has shifted toward all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) utilizing inorganic solid electrolytes that promise enhanced safety. In this work, we report the discovery of a new crystal structural type of Li-ion conductor, Li 2 GeS 3 , with a unique structure, synthesized by a solid-state reaction from Li 2 S and GeS 2 . It was first reported in 2000 with an orthorhombic unit cell, but its detailed crystal structure remains veiled. Here, we have unveiled its structure for the first time, employing an ab initio structure determination technique from powder X-ray and time-of-flight neutron diffraction data. The compound has an unprecedented crystal structural type with a hexagonal $P6_1$ symmetry and a unit cell of α = 6.79364(4) Å and c = 17.90724(14) Å. Its structure is comprised of a distorted hexagonal close-packed arrangement of sulfur anions with three asymmetric metal atoms: Li1, Li2, and Ge are in tetrahedral cavities surrounded by sulfur atoms. The ionic conductivity of Li 2 GeS 3 was measured to be 1.63 × 10 –8 S cm –1 at 303 K and 2.45 × 10 –7 S cm –1 at 383 K. Bond valence energy landscape calculations revealed three-dimensional lithium diffusion pathways within the structure. This novel crystal structure in Li 2 GeS 3 holds the potential for developing high-performance ionic conductors through suitable chemical substitution and offers valuable insights into designing new ionic conductors for ASSBs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Storylines for unprecedented heatwaves based on ensemble boosting

Recent temperature extremes have shattered previously observed records, reaching intensities that were inconceivable before the events. Could the possibility of an event with such unprecedented intensity as the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave have been foreseen, based on climate model information available before the event? Could the scientific community have quantified its potential intensity based on the current generation of climate models? Here, we demonstrate how an ensemble boosting approach can be used to generate physically plausible storylines of a heatwave hotter than observed in the Pacific Northwest. We also show that heatwaves of much greater intensities than ever observed are possible in other locations like the Greater Chicago and Paris regions. In order to establish confidence in storylines of ‘black swan’-type events, different lines of evidence need to be combined along with process understanding to make this information robust and actionable for stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nanocapsules of unprecedented internal volume seamed by calcium ions

The inception of an unprecedented class of voluminous Platonic solids displaying hierarchical geometry based on pyrogallol[4]arene moieties seamed by divalent calcium ion is described. Single-crystal X-ray structural determination has established the highly conserved geometry of two original Ca 2+ -seamed nanocapsules to be essentially cubic in shape with C-ethylpyrogallol[4]arene units located along the twelve edges of the cube which are then bridged by metallic polyatomic cations ([Ca 4 Cl] 7+ or [Ca(HCO 2 )Na 4 ] 5+ ) at the six cube faces. The accessible volume of the nanocapsules is ca. 3500 Å 3 and 2500 Å 3 and is completely isolated from the exterior of the capsules. These remarkable nanocapsule discoveries cast a spotlight on a marginalized area of synthetic materials chemistry and encourage future exploration of diversiform supramolecular assemblies, networks, and capsules built on calcium, with clear benefits deriving from the intrinsic biocompatibility of calcium. Finally, a proof-of-concept is demonstrated for fluorescent reporter encapsulation and sustained release from the calcium-seamed nanocapsules, suggesting their potential as delivery vehicles for drugs, nutrients, preservatives, or antioxidants.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DICER: Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime for Evaluating Unprecedented Scale of Geospatial-Temporal Human Mobility Data

With the significant increase in sources and volume of human mobility data through commercial data vendors as well as microsimulation of cities, the scale of geospatial-temporal data to analyze and assess for mobility characterization has grown to the level of Big Data. There are mobility related commercial organizations deploying scalable computing, but often the system architecture, workflow, and intermediate processing components are not fully disclosed in relevant scope. Current research literature has a notable lack of studies demonstrating architectures and workflows for human mobility analytics that are implemented on a TeraByte scale of geospatial-temporal data. In this context, this paper presents a hyperscale-level system solution named DICER (Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime) for processing and analytics of geospatial-temporal data at big data scale. Although the cluster computing architecture of DICER with Apache Spark job running on Kubernetes cluster is not new, there are innovations in the workflow, hierarchical processing logic, and a wide range of intermediate preprocessing and mobility metrics calculation. We have performed case studies to validate the effectiveness of DICER system solution by performing detailed analytics and assessment of human mobility microsimulation output at three different scopes and scale, including a usecase with 16.97 TeraByte and 259.2 Billion rows of data. In addition, we have presented another case study of utilizing DICER to perform the same mobility processing and comparative analytics on large-scale commercially available geospatial-temporal data. All these case studies validate the efficiency and usefulness of DICER in computing population mobility characteristics from geospatial-temporal trajectory data at an unprecedented scale (not only just data volume, but also combination of: number of user entities, temporal frequency, spatial resolution, data duration).

De, Debraj↗

Unprecedented cloud resolution in a GPU-enabled full-physics atmospheric climate simulation on OLCF’s summit supercomputer

Clouds represent a key uncertainty in future climate projection. While explicit cloud resolution remains beyond our computational grasp for global climate, we can incorporate important cloud effects through a computational middle ground called the Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF), also known as Super Parameterization. This algorithmic approach embeds high-resolution Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) to represent moist convective processes within each grid column in a Global Climate Model (GCM). The MMF code requires no parallel data transfers and provides a self-contained target for acceleration. This study investigates the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model-MMF (E3SM-MMF) code on the OLCF Summit supercomputer at an unprecedented scale of simulation. Hundreds of kernels in the roughly 10K lines of code in the E3SM-MMF CRM were ported to GPUs with OpenACC directives. A high-resolution benchmark using 4600 nodes on Summit demonstrates the computational capability of the GPU-enabled E3SM-MMF code in a full physics climate simulation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Ultrafast Preparation of Nonequilibrium FeNi Spinels by Magnetic Induction Heating for Unprecedented Oxygen Evolution Electrocatalysis

Carbon-supported nanocomposites are attracting particular attention as high-performance, low-cost electrocatalysts for electrochemical water splitting. These are mostly prepared by pyrolysis and hydrothermal procedures that are time-consuming (from hours to days) and typically difficult to produce a nonequilibrium phase. Herein, for the first time ever, we exploit magnetic induction heating-quenching for ultrafast production of carbon-FeNi spinel oxide nanocomposites (within seconds), which exhibit an unprecedentedly high performance towards oxygen evolution reaction (OER), with an ultralow overpotential of only +260 mV to reach the high current density of 100 mA cm -2 . Experimental and theoretical studies show that the rapid heating and quenching process (ca. 10 3 K s -1 ) impedes the Ni and Fe phase segregation and produces a Cl-rich surface, both contributing to the remarkable catalytic activity. Results from this study highlight the unique advantage of ultrafast heating/quenching in the structural engineering of functional nanocomposites to achieve high electrocatalytic performance towards important electrochemical reactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unprecedented Multifunctionality in 1D Nb 1- x Ta x S 3 Transition Metal Trichalcogenide Alloy

One-dimensional (1D) van der Waals materials, such as nanofibers or nanoribbons are considered as the future ultimate limit of downscaling for modern electrical and electrochemical devices. Here, for the first time, we successfully synthesize nanofibers of a solid solution transition metal trichalcogenide (TMTC), Nb 1-x Ta x S 3 , with outstanding electrical, thermal, and electrochemical characteristics rivaling the performance of the-state-of-the art materials for each application. This material shows nearly unchanged sheet resistance (≈740 Ω/sq -1 ) versus bending cycles tested up to 90 cycles, stable sheet resistance in ambient conditions tested up to 60 days, remarkably high electrical breakdown current density of ≈ 30 MA cm -2 , strong evidence of successive charge density wave (CDW) transitions, and outstanding thermal stability up to ≈900 K. Additionally, this material demonstrates excellent activity and selectivity for CO2 conversion to CO reaching ≈ 350 mA cm -2 at – 0.8 V vs RHE with an outstanding turnover frequency number of 25 for CO formation. It also exhibits an excellent performance in a high-rate Li-air battery with the specific capacity of 3000 mAhg -1 at a high current density of 0.3 mAcm -2 . This study uncovers the multifunctionality in 1D TMTC alloys for a wide range of high-impact applications and opens a new direction for the design of the next generation of low-dimensional materials with high performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cascadia Burning: The historic, but not historically unprecedented, 2020 wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Abstract Wildfires devastated communities in Oregon and Washington in September 2020, burning almost as much forest west of the Cascade Mountain crest (“the westside”) in 2 weeks (~340,000 ha) as in the previous five decades (~406,00 ha). Unlike dry forests of the interior western United States, temperate rain forests of the Pacific Northwest have experienced limited recent fire activity, and debates surrounding what drove the 2020 fires, and management strategies to adapt to similar future events, necessitate a scientific evaluation of the fires. We evaluate five questions regarding the 2020 Labor Day fires: (1) How do the 2020 fires compare with historical fires? (2) How did the roles of weather and antecedent climate differ geographically and from the recent past (1979–2019)? (3) How do fire size and severity compare to other recent fires (1985–2019), and how did forest management and prefire forest structure influence burn severity? (4) What impact will these fires have on westside landscapes? and (5) How can we adapt to similar fires in the future? Although 5 of the 2020 fires were much larger than any others in the recent past and burned ~10 times the area in high‐severity patches >10,000 ha, the 2020 fires were remarkably consistent with historical fires. Reports from the early 1900s, along with paleo‐ and dendro‐ecological records, indicate similar and potentially even larger wildfires over the past millennium, many of which shared similar seasonality (late August/early September), weather conditions, and even geographic locations. Consistent with the largest historical fires, strong east winds and anomalously dry conditions drove the rapid spread of high‐severity wildfire in 2020. We found minimal difference in burn severity among stand structural types related to previous management in the 2020 fires. Adaptation strategies for similar fires in the future could benefit by focusing on ignition prevention, fire suppression, and community preparedness, as opposed to fuel treatments that are unlikely to mitigate fire severity during extreme weather. While scientific uncertainties remain regarding the nature of infrequent, high‐severity fires in westside forests, particularly under climate change, adapting to their future occurrence will require different strategies than those in interior, dry forests.

Reilly, Matthew J.↗

Optimizing iodine adsorption in functionalized metal-organic frameworks via an unprecedented positional isomerism strategy

Porous metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) have emerged as highly promising adsorbents for capturing radioiodine, a predominant fission product released during nuclear fuel reprocessing. However, systematic investigations into the correlation between MOF structure and iodine uptake capacity remain scarce. Here, we present a novel approach to enhance the iodine adsorption capacity of MOFs by optimizing linker functionalization. Using ligand-functionalized thorium-based MOFs as a structural platform, we demonstrate that ortho-amino-substitution near the node of the dicarboxylate linker significantly increases iodine adsorption capacity compared to meta-amino-substitution, where the amino groups are directed away from the node. Specifically, ortho-substituted Th-UiO-68-3,3”-(NH 2 ) 2 exhibits higher iodine uptake capacities than the meta-substituted Th-UiO-68-2,2”-(NH 2 ) 2 via both vapor diffusion-based (2.042 vs. 1.087 g/g) and solution-based (0.841 vs. 0.784 g/g) processes. Notably, the I 2 vapor adsorption capacity (2.042 g/g) of Th-UiO-68-3,3”-(NH 2 ) 2 represents the second highest among all reported Th-MOFs. Pair distribution function (PDF) studies reveal that the superior iodine uptake performance of ortho-functionalized MOFs can be attributed to the reduced steric hindrance of the amino groups compared with the meta-substituted variants. Finally, this research highlights how positional isomerism and its subtle alterations can significantly influence host–guest interactions, extending beyond simple structural considerations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unprecedented electrical performance of friction-extruded copper-graphene composites

Copper-graphene composites show remarkable electrical performance surpassing traditional copper conductors albeit at a micron scale; there are several challenges in demonstrating similar performance at the bulk scale. In this study, we used shear extrusion to synthesize macro-scale copper-graphene composites with a simultaneously lower temperature coefficient of resistance (TCR) and improved electrical conductivity over copper-only samples. We showed that the addition of 18 ppm of graphene decreased the TCR of C11000 alloy by nearly 11%. A suite of characterization tools involving scanning and transmission electron microscopy along with atom probe tomography were used to characterize the grain size, crystallographic orientation, structure, and composition of copper grains and graphene additives in the feedstock and processed samples. We posit that the shear extrusion process may have transformed some of the feedstock graphene additives into higher defect-density agglomerates while retaining the structure of others as mono-to-trilete flakes with lower defect density. The combination of these additives with heterogeneous structures may have been responsible for the simultaneous decrease in TCR and enhanced electrical conductivity of the copper-graphene ShAPE composites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Seeing the Disturbed Forest for the Trees: Remote Sensing Is Underutilized to Quantify Critical Zone Response to Unprecedented Disturbance

Understanding the severity and extent of near surface critical zone (CZ) disturbances and their ecosystem response is a pressing concern in the face of increasing human and natural disturbances. Predicting disturbance severity and recovery in a changing climate requires comprehensive understanding of ecosystem feedbacks among vegetation and the surrounding environment, including climate, hydrology, geomorphology, and biogeochemistry. Field surveys and satellite remote sensing have limited ability to effectively capture the spatial and temporal variability of disturbance and CZ properties. Technological advances in remote sensing using new sensors and new platforms have improved observations of changes in vegetation canopy structure and productivity; however, integrating measures of forest disturbance from various sensing platforms is complex. By connecting the potential for remote sensing technologies to observe different CZ disturbance vectors, we show that lower severity disturbance and slower vegetation recovery are more difficult to quantify. Case studies in montane forests from the western United States highlight new opportunities, including evaluating post-disturbance forest recovery at multiple scales, shedding light on understory vegetation regrowth, detecting specific physiological responses, and refining ecohydrological modeling. Learning from regional CZ disturbance case studies, we propose future directions to synthesize fragmented findings with (a) new data analysis using new or existing sensors, (b) data fusion across multiple sensors and platforms, (c) increasing the value of ground-based observations, (d) disturbance modeling, and (e) synthesis to improve understanding of disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗