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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating uncertainty: A Bayesian approach to modelling photosynthesis in C3 leaves

The Farquhar-von Caemmerer-Berry (FvCB) model is extensively used to model pho-tosynthesis from gas exchange measurements. Since its publication, many methods have been developed to measure, or more accurately estimate, parameters of this model. Here, we have created a tool that uses Bayesian statistics to fit photosyn-thetic parameters using concurrent gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence mea-surements whilst evaluating the reliability of the parameter estimation. We have tested this tool on synthetic data and experimental data from rice leaves. Our results indicate that reliable parameter estimation can be achieved whilst only keeping one parameter, Km, that is, Michaelis constant for CO2 by Rubisco, prefixed. Additionally, we show that including detailed low CO2 measurements at low light levels increases reliability and suggests this as a new standard measurement protocol. By providing an estimated distribution of parameter values, the tool can be used to evaluate the quality of data from gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurement proto-cols. Compared to earlier model fitting methods, the use of a Bayesian statistics-based tool minimizes human interaction during fitting, reducing the subjectivity which is essential to most existing tools. A user friendly, interactive Bayesian tool script is provided.

Bayesian statistics, leaf photosynthesis, mesophyl↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

E-Area Low Level Waste Generator Inventory Uncertainty Estimation

This report describes the method used to estimate the uncertainty and bias in the low-level waste inventory, as reported by Waste Generators, for waste disposed in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility at SRS. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is summed to calculate the current total uncertainty and bias in each disposal unit in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility. This information is used to estimate the future uncertainty and bias when all disposal units are closed. For most waste cuts, there are two areas of inventory uncertainty and bias: in the isotopic characterization of the waste stream and in the measurement of total waste cut activity. Waste stream characterization is accomplished through a combination of process knowledge and analytical measurements. This characterization is documented by a technical baseline that describes the relative quantity of each isotope present in the waste stream. The total activity of each individual waste cut is usually measured directly or is calculated through a ratio of activity per weight or activity per volume. The waste cut total activity is multiplied by the waste stream isotopic fraction to calculate the total isotopic activity present in the waste cut. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is calculated by analyzing the uncertainties and biases in the waste stream characterization and waste cut measurements and adding the uncertainties in quadrature and multiplying the reported isotopic activities by the bias factors. The current isotopic inventory, uncertainty, and bias of a disposal unit is the sum of the currently disposed individual waste cut isotopic activities, uncertainties, and biases. The future uncertainty and bias is estimated based on the average “worst-case” (largest) uncertainties and biases of currently closed and operational disposal units. This report details the method, data sources, and calculation techniques used to calculate these values. It also presents some of the difficulties in working with the reported data and gives examples of the calculations and analysis. The software used to carryout the analysis is included and the location of the complete individual analyses is given. After discussion with waste generators, examination of multiple waste characterization documents, and a review of SRS Manual 1S, the reported ELLWF radionuclide activities are clearly conservative and likely represent reasonable upper bounds for the true activities. However, quantifying the bias and uncertainty in each waste cut requires detailed analysis of the documentation for each waste cut measurement and waste stream characterization.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dense Image Matching Uncertainty Estimation and Confidence Metrics

Dense stereo matching takes overlapping image pairs as input and outputs a disparity map which encodes pixel-by-pixel matches between the images. Recently, there has been an interest in ranking the quality, or even quantifying the accuracy, of disparity estimates. The proposed methods can be described as either uncertainty estimators or confidence metrics. Uncertainty estimators are a small minority of the research. However, they have the potential to be the most useful because they estimate disparity accuracy (in pixel units) that can be used to threshold matches or carried forward using error propagation. The majority of the research deals with confidence metrics which give an ordinal (or binary) ranking of a match’s quality relative to other matches. Confidence metrics do not have units and thus are useful primarily for thresholding matches from mismatches. The methods could also be described as handcrafted or deep-learning based. The majority of the research focused on outdoor driving scenes. Hence, our interest–application to a satellite semi-global matching pipeline–is a domain shift that may challenge deep-learning based methods. We conclude by recommending five handcrafted and two deep-learning based methods for evaluation in our pipeline.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relevance Vector Machine Image Reconstruction Algorithm for Electrical Capacitance Tomography With Explicit Uncertainty Estimates

We present a Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) based algorithm for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) applications that can concurrently provide image reconstruction results and uncertainty estimates about the reconstruction. To illustrate the RVM operation in ECT, we simulate typical ECT scenarios, making explicit the connection between the reconstructed pixel values and the corresponding uncertainty estimates in each case. We compare the RVM reconstruction performance with that of the Iterative Landweber Method (ILM) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in all the considered scenarios. The results show that, in addition to the key advantage of providing uncertainty measures, RVM can achieve similar reconstruction results with either lower or similar computational complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic predictions and uncertainty estimation for radiological and nuclear effects modeling

Better characterization of meteorological uncertainty is needed to predict the effects of radiological and nuclear releases in the atmosphere. Multi-physics ensembles of atmospheric simulations can estimate uncertainty of physical processes, but they are often limited for computational reasons. Because weather uncertainty is important for emergency response applications, but the conventional way of running multi-physics ensembles is infeasible, we have developed new machine learning-based methods that quickly estimate and identify key sources of meteorological uncertainty. Machine learning accelerates the analysis of weather uncertainty by iteratively learning about model physics options that affect plume predictions. We have demonstrated the power of machine learning by creating a large multi-physics weather and dispersion ensemble dataset containing 1,200 simulations for two hypothetical radiological release scenarios. By training on less than 10% of the ensemble, we can quickly and accurately predict different outcomes, including the mass of radiological material deposited and spatial distribution and extent of contaminated areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Wrong Can the Operational AEP Uncertainty Estimate Be When We Ignore the Correlations Between the Uncertainty Components?

Calculations of wind farm annual energy production (AEP) on operational data are essential for a variety of financial transactions during the life of wind plants. The AEP estimate is associated with an uncertainty value, which is calculated by combining contributions connected to on-site measurements, long-term reference measurements, losses, regression, windiness adjustment, and wind resource interannual variability. Although very limited documentation on the topic exists, the conventional approach currently used by the wind energy community to assess the uncertainty connected to the operational AEP estimate assume that the different uncertainty components are uncorrelated and therefore calculates the overall uncertainty with a sum of squares approach. In this analysis, we contrast the traditional technique to estimate the overall AEP uncertainty by ignoring the correlation between its different components with a novel Monte Carlo based approach, which can instead take into account the correlation between different uncertainty categories. We consider monthly operational data from 472 wind farms from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) 923 database to assess the difference between the two approaches. Long-term wind speed data needed for the AEP assessment are taken from three reanalysis products: the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications v2 (MERRA-2), the European Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction v2 (NCEP-2). The results of the Monte Carlo approach show that three pairs of AEP uncertainty components do show a statistically significant correlation: the uncertainty connected with wind resource inter-annual variability is positively correlated with the one related to the windiness correction and negatively correlated with the one due to the regression, and the wind measurement uncertainty is positively correlated with the regression uncertainty. All these correlations, which are found between uncertainty components which are not only part of an operational analysis, but also of a wind resource assessment, are currently ignored in the conventional techniques used as industry standard. We further investigate the causes of these correlations, in terms of common dependencies of different uncertainty components on wind resource variability, number of data points, and quality of the regression between wind speed and energy production data. Next, we quantify the error in the current industry standard technique, in terms of the percentage difference in total uncertainty calculated with the two considered approaches, for all the analyzed wind farms. We find a mean absolute percentage difference of about 6%, with the largest differences being greater than 20%. The data clearly confirm that ignoring the actual correlation between the uncertainty components can lead to large errors in the assessment of the operational AEP uncertainty, and the proposed Monte Carlo approach should be preferred.

Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

NEON AOP foliar trait maps, maps of model uncertainty estimates, and conifer map, East River, CO 2018

This data package contains mapped trait estimates and their uncertainties, and conifer map, for the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform survey data acquired over the Upper East River, Colorado in 2018. For full details, please see associated reference. in brief, trait models were developed independently for needle and non-needle leaf species using partial least squares regression (PLSR) using ground data from additional datasets: doi:10.15485/1618130, doi:10.15485/1618132, and doi:10.15485/1631278, merged with extracted spectral data from doi:10.15485/1618131. We separated vegetated pixels into needle and non-needle classes in order to generate a classification map based on the spectral differences between these leaf types (conifer.tif). We trained a deep learning model with custom architecture, detailed in Chadwick et al. In Press. The model performed with 0.998 true positive rate and 0.982 true negative rate, with ‘positives’ being non-needle identification. We then utilized PLSR to generate models of foliar traits for each leaf type. So that we could also map uncertainty in these predictions, we generated ten different models for needle and non-needle leaf species using different testing holdout sets of discrete sites. Each of these models was developed with a 100-fold cross validation procedure that utilized a 70% training set and 30% validation set with each fold, and then assessed based on the 10% of testing sites that were not included in that model’s development. The mean predicted value across the 10 models is used for the trait estimate in each pixel across the study area. The models are applied according to the leaf type designation in the conifer.tif map. The errors are the standard deviation across the 10 different models developed, with high error suggesting instability in model prediction and areas where values may not be reliable for ecological inference. These maps are only applied to areas with a NDVI > 0.5 to exclude non-vegetated areas. Shade masks could be applied to these data (doi:10.15485/1618131), but have not been for this data package. These data are also available on Google Earth Engine: https://code.earthengine.google.com/?asset=users/kdc/ER_NEON

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distribution System Behind-the-Meter DERs: Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Control

This paper summarizes the three-year technical activities of the IEEE Task Force (TF) on behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DERs): estimation, uncertainty quantification, and control. The potential grid services from BTM DERs are discussed in detail. The paper also reviews the state-of-the-art for BTM DERs visibility, uncertainty quantification, and, optimization and control. Furthermore, different aspects of the market structures associated with BTM DERs are covered, including emerging market and business models. Finally, needs and recommendations are provided for additional areas such as system protection, computing capabilities, algorithm development, market structure design, cyberinfrastructure and security, and hardware and software developments.

behind-the-meter↗