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Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY

Activity-based Informed Curtailment: Using Acoustics to Design and Validate Smart Curtailment to Reduce Risk to Bats at Wind Farms

Rapid expansion of renewable energy infrastructure is a key part of any global strategy to reduce the pace and severity of anthropogenic climate change, although the potential impacts of renewable energy infrastructure on wildlife are also becoming increasingly apparent. Bats appear vulnerable to population-level impacts from the cumulative effect of turbine-related fatalities at commercial wind energy facilities in North America, particularly as the industry continues to expand to meet renewable energy generation targets. Turbine curtailment is the most widely used and consistently effective method to reduce bat fatality rates and involves pitching turbine blades parallel to prevailing winds to restrict turbine rotation when turbines would otherwise be operating and capable of producing power. Recognizing the need to expand the wind industry while managing risk to bats highlights the need to understand and manage turbine-related impacts to bats more aggressively and strategically than the current use of blanket curtailment allows.

17 WIND ENERGY

Ultrasonic Deterrents To Reduce Bat Mortality at Wind Turbines - Short Science Summary

In North America, several bat species commonly collide with operating turbines. Though the ultimate driver of collisions is unknown, studies suggest that bats may be attracted to turbines because they often approach and spend extended periods of time (seconds to minutes) interacting with turbine structures. To reduce bat mortality at wind farm operators, seek to reduce mortality rates by reducing the amount of time that bats interact with spinning turbine blades (or exposure). Current approaches to reduce exposure include curtailment, whereby turbine operators stop turbine rotors from spinning during periods when bats are expected to be at the highest risk of collision, and deterrent technologies that seek to discourage bats from entering/ limit the amount of time spent within the rotor swept area. We briefly describe the state of the science on ultrasonic deterrent technology, highlight potential drivers of variable efficacy for bat mortality reduction, and suggest next steps focus on identifying the driver(s) of such variability.

bats

Ultrasonic deterrents provide no additional benefit over curtailment in reducing bat fatalities at an Ohio wind energy facility

Wind energy is important for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions but also contributes to global bat mortality. Current strategies to minimize bat mortality due to collision with wind-turbine blades fall broadly into two categories: curtailment (limiting turbine operation during high-risk periods) and deterrence (discouraging bat activity near turbines). Recently, there has been interest in combining these strategies to achieve greater reductions in bat fatalities than either strategy might achieve in isolation. To investigate the effectiveness of combining curtailment with ultrasonic deterrent minimization strategies, we deployed six ultrasonic deterrents at nacelle height on 16 experimental turbines at Avangrid Renewables’ Blue Creek Wind Energy Facility. We rotated between four conditions (normal operations, curtailment only, deterrent only, curtailment and deterrent) randomly assigned to four wind turbines each night between 15 June and 3 October 2017. We found that bat mortality at wind turbines was independent of wind speed. The effectiveness of ultrasonic acoustic deterrents varied between high-frequency-calling species (eastern red bats) and low-frequency-calling species (hoary bats, silver-haired bats, and big brown bats). When deterrents were active, mortality was twice as high for eastern red bats compared to the control. Conversely, deterrents had a weak dampening effect on bat mortality for low-frequency species. We found no additive effects on mortality reduction for turbines operating both curtailment and deterrents compared to either approach in isolation. Our findings suggest that ultrasonic acoustic deterrents may not be effective for both high and low frequency echolocating bats. The increase in fatalities of eastern red bats is alarming and underscores the importance of considering site- and species-specific effects of minimization solutions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Loss Factors for Small Distributed Wind Turbines Based on Field Data in the United States

While wind energy production loss due to unavailability, environmental impacts, curtailment, and other causes has been studied and characterized at the utility-scale wind farm level, observation-based characterization of project loss is lacking for distributed wind energy, particularly for projects involving small wind turbines. Contemporary tools and research that support pre-construction distributed wind energy characterization present a wide range of default loss factors to convert gross energy estimates to net: 7-18%. We hypothesize that we can use generation observations from operational distributed wind projects to develop more accurate representations of loss. Using a density-based filtering technique on distributed wind power generation timeseries, we determine periods of typical performance and use them with regression algorithms in a measure-correlate-predict fashion to simulate what the generation would have been during periods of atypical or unreported performance. From there, the actual versus predicted generation leads to the establishment of observation-informed loss factors (median = 17%) for small, single turbine installation distributed wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY

Report of the Panel on Propulsion

Propulsion, while conventionally included on the list of important aeronautical disciplines along with aerodynamics, structures, etc., is in itself a systems endeavor, analogous to the engineering of the entire vehicle; indeed propulsion encompasses important aspects of all the other disciplines. In recognition of this fact, the panel focused its discussion on those aspects of the key disciplines that are especially or uniquely important to propulsion. From the initial development of the airplane, the propulsion system has been recognized as one of the pacing technologies. It is perhaps because of the technological disparity between the reciprocating engine and the primitive airframe that the two remained relatively and separate, were developed somewhat independently, usually by different organizations. In recent years, the maturing of the gas turbine power plant and the advance in high-speed airframes have rendered this separation somewhat artificial. The power plant and the airframe now share common structural and aerodynamic elements; as the flight Mach number rises, the degree of interaction increases. By the year 2000, this interdependence will have increased in many respects to a point where independent design may not be practical or possible. During the period since the initiation of the aircraft gas turbine, the solid propellant rocket and the liquid propellant rocket, a vast array of other novel engines have been studied, covering the full spectrum of flight conditions from low subsonic to hypersonic and transatmospheric flight. In each instance, performance limits have been investigated under the assumption that current technology or reasonably foreseeable technology would be available for their development. Among the extensive list of advanced, high-performance concepts and cycles examined are the hypersonic ramjet, the variable cycle, runway-to-orbit airbreathing engine, the ram rocket (airbreathing and rich solid propellant rocket), and the air turborocket. At various times, these systems have come relatively close to meriting development and application. In many instances, limitations of materials and technologies curtailed development. As important and with almost equal frequency, the lack of commercial or military utility of the concept precluded the necessary funding. It is instructive to note that two former items on this list, the turbofan (bypass engine) and the high-speed turboprop, are respectively a mainstay engine and a promising development. In the case of the turbofan, its full potential could not be realized until turbine cooling technology had been developed and new materials developed to permit the construction of transonic fans. In the case of the highspeed turbopropeller engine, not only were the material and turbine technologies needed, but, in addition, the rise in fuel costs provided the impetus to take advantage of its favorable fuel consumption characteristic. As the basic technologies progress and as new missions become attractive, the engines in the foregoing list become candidates for new feasibility studies and further technology development. At the present time, the ram rocket is the prime contender to augment the range of small missiles. Of interest also is the hypersonic ram jet and its logical extension, the runway-to-orbit airbreathing engine. Much of this report deals with the development of current or near-future power plant concepts. First, the motivating factors for aeronautical propulsion research are reviewed as a reminder of the importance of continued effort in a field that has often been characterized as mature. Next, technical areas are discussed in which the panel feels additional research effort is warranted and would lead to the realization of the technological potentials between now and the year 2000. Under these guidelines, new cycles (e.g., isothermal energy exchange) were not considered by the panel. Finally, although facility requirements were not a prime consideration in the current projections, the panel believes that the increasing complexity of propulsion systems; the need for more refined interaction between propulsion system, airframe, and controls; and increasing operation in adverse weather will require test capabilities beyond those now available (see appendix). Enhanced test capability is needed in the areas of propulsion airframe integration and in largescale icing research with proper concurrent treatment of altitude, temperature, and speed.

Kerrebrock, Jack L.

Alkali Metal Rankine Cycle Boiler Technology Challenges and Some Potential Solutions for Space Nuclear Power and Propulsion Applications

Alkali metal boilers are of interest for application to future space Rankine cycle power conversion systems. Significant progress on such boilers was accomplished in the 1960's and early 1970's, but development was not continued to operational systems since NASA's plans for future space missions were drastically curtailed in the early 1970's. In particular, piloted Mars missions were indefinitely deferred. With the announcement of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) in July 1989 by President Bush, interest was rekindled in challenging space missions and, consequently in space nuclear power and propulsion. Nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) and nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) were proposed for interplanetary space vehicles, particularly for Mars missions. The potassium Rankine power conversion cycle became of interest to provide electric power for NEP vehicles and for 'dual-mode' NTP vehicles, where the same reactor could be used directly for propulsion and (with an additional coolant loop) for power. Although the boiler is not a major contributor to system mass, it is of critical importance because of its interaction with the rest of the power conversion system; it can cause problems for other components such as excess liquid droplets entering the turbine, thereby reducing its life, or more critically, it can drive instabilities-some severe enough to cause system failure. Funding for the SEI and its associated technology program from 1990 to 1993 was not sufficient to support significant new work on Rankine cycle boilers for space applications. In Fiscal Year 1994, funding for these challenging missions and technologies has again been curtailed, and planning for the future is very uncertain. The purpose of this paper is to review the technologies developed in the 1960's and 1970's in the light of the recent SEI applications. In this way, future Rankine cycle boiler programs may be conducted most efficiently. This report is aimed at evaluating alkali metal boiler technology for space Rankine cycle systems. Research is summarized on the problems of flow stability, liquid carryover, pressure drop and heat transfer, and on potential solutions developed, primarily those developed by the NASA Lewis Research Center in the 1960's and early 1970's.

Stone, James R.

Hybridization Assessment of Trybrid Pumped Storage Hydropower System—Part 1: A Case Study of Corral Summit

This report is a part of the deliverables for technical assistance provided to Cat Creek Energy for the Coral Summit Trybrid (Triple Hybrid-Pumped Storage Hydropower, Battery Energy Storage System, and photovoltaic solar energy) energy project. This report explores the operational benefits and challenges of hybridizing an open loop PSH (200MW) located at Mackay, Custer County, Idaho with solar PV (Ground mount 300MW and floating 40MW) and battery (720MWhr). This document reports two activities performed as a part of the hybridization assessment task 1) optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy, and 2) power quality and reliability assessment. From optimal resource allocation and energy management strategy (activity 1), the following key findings can be observed: • Conventional PSH (CPSH) with two reversible pump turbines and separate penstocks can provide required flexibility equivalent to that from two ternary PSH with separate penstock. With single unit CPSH, upper reservoir head cannot be maintained accurately, the variation of water level is rapid and pump mode flexibility is not available. These disadvantages can be overcome by single unit TPSH. However, using two CPSH units with separate penstocks also overcome these disadvantages with the formation of the hydraulic short circuit between two conventional units. • Flooding of the lower reservoir is a severe concern when considering continuous operation for black start. This limits the duration of continuous operation from PSH alone to around 50 hours. Due to the complementary PV and battery action, the duration of continuous operation and smooth power output can be extended. • An optimization problem is framed that maximizes the power output on an hourly basis while minimizing constraint violations and respecting seasonal variations of solar PV and load profiles . Two value streams, arbitrage and baseload generation are served by this profile. It was uncovered that for smooth power output during regular operation, PV curtailment will be required, or the battery capacity needs to be increased above 90MW to accommodate additional PV. From power quality and reliability assessment (activity 2) the following takeaway points can be observed: • The Trybrid, when integrated at the Lost River bus, and limited to 250MW in generation mode and -150MW in the pump mode, causes no violation of voltage or flow.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY