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Drive Cycles, Battery Pack Scaling, and Usage Considerations for Long-Haul and Regional-Haul Electric Trucks

Electrifying Class-8 heavy-duty trucks presents a promising opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce freight transport costs. Battery electric trucks (BETs), once considered niche, are gaining traction due to advancements in battery technology and cost reductions. However, accurately predicting battery lifespan under realistic usage conditions remains a key challenge. Understanding battery failure mechanisms and their links to design, operation, and management is essential for developers and fleet operators. This study introduces a method to develop simplified, lab-testable dynamic stress test (DST) cycles for regional and long-haul Class-8 BETs, derived from real-world diesel truck usage. These DSTs enable benchmarking of battery technologies, identification of aging stressors, and optimization of battery design, life, and cost. The approach supports evaluation of key metrics such as levelized cost of driving and total cost of ownership, aiding fair comparisons and adoption decisions. We also propose feasible battery pack sizes that meet current driving demands with strategic charging, and a method to scale pack-level DSTs to cell-level cycles for lab-based testing. These tools facilitate tradeoff analysis across battery chemistries, pack sizing, and charging strategies, while offering means to get insights into battery aging under realistic conditions-ultimately supporting informed BET deployment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Energy consumption and charging load profiles from long-haul truck electrification in the United States

Abstract The urgent need to decarbonize the transportation sector combined with falling battery prices has spurred industry and policy interest in long-haul truck electrification. The charging behavior and resulting loads from electrified long-haul freight trucks are crucial for the smooth operation of the electric grid and have far-reaching environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas and other air pollutant emissions). However, the aggregate energy impact of a fleetwide shift to electrified long-haul freight trucking has not been explored. This study combines electric truck design scenarios, bottom-up truck weight modeling, vehicle energy modeling, large-scale truck traffic data, and simulation of likely operation and charging behaviors to estimate end-use energy consumption and location-specific hourly charging loads for a national fleet of long-haul electric trucks. Relative to a fleet of future diesel trucks, electrification would reduce direct end-use energy consumption by 0.9 × 10 18 J (0.9 quadrillion BTU), but electrification might increase life cycle energy consumption depending on the electricity source. The electricity required to charge long-haul electric trucks is equivalent to five percent of annual electricity consumption in the United States (US). The simulated truck charging loads peak during the day across the US grid regions, but the charging peaks’ exact timing is sensitive to when trucks are dispatched for operation. The load shapes suggest that electric trucks’ charging loads can coincide with peaks in solar power generation, and planning could enable on- or off-site integration between truck charging stations and renewable electricity generation.

Tong, Fan (ORCID:0000000346613956)↗

Analysis of the Unsteady Wakes of Heavy Trucks in Platoon Formation and Their Potential Influence on Energy Savings

The authors present transient wind velocity measurements from two successive, well-documented truck platooning track-test campaigns to assess the wake-shedding behavior experienced by trucks in various platoon formations. Utilizing advanced analytics of data from fast-response (100-200-Hz) multi-hole pressure probes, this analysis examines aerodynamic flow features and their relationship to energy savings during close-following platoon formations. Applying Spectral analysis to the wind velocity signals, we identify the frequency content and vortex-shedding behavior from a forward truck trailer, which dominates the flow field encountered by the downstream trucks. The changes in dominant wake-shedding frequencies correlate with changes to the lead and follower truck fuel savings at short separation distances. All followers experience a reduction in wake-shedding frequency at following distances less than 20 m—the same zone where lead trucks experience fuel savings/drag reductions and where followers experience a reduction in platooning benefits. The dominant vortex-shedding frequency decreased by upwards of 35% in this region. Additionally, the third truck in a platoon is shown to experience a lower wake-shedding frequency than the second vehicle in either a two- or three-truck platoon. The correlation of changes in the vortex-shedding frequency to trends in drag reduction, and the associated energy savings, suggest that these phenomena may be related and may provide an opportunity for improving the efficiency potential of truck platooning.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Why Regional and Long-Haul Trucks are Primed for Electrification Now

Zero emission freight trucks are needed to both improve public health and reduce global greenhouse gas emissions but at the same time are generally believed to be uneconomical. However, recent dramatic declines in battery prices and improvement in their energy density have created opportunities for battery-electric trucking today that were seldom anticipated just a few years ago. At the current global average battery pack price of $135 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) (realizable when procured at scale), a Class 8 electric truck with 375-mile range and operated 300 miles per day when compared to a diesel truck offers about 13% lower total cost of ownership (TCO) per mile, about 3-year payback and net present savings of about US $200,000 over a 15-year lifetime. This is achieved with only a 3% reduction in payload capacity. Even this small penalty can be reversed cost-effectively through light-weighting, in any case, only matters for a small fraction of trucks which regularly utilize their maximum payload. Electric trucks appear poised to also meet the performance demands for a large share of regional and long-haul trucking today. The estimated average distance traveled between 30- minute driver breaks is 150 miles and 190 miles for regional-haul and long-haul trucks respectively in the US. Thirty minutes of charging using 500 kW or mega-Watt scale fastchargers would add sufficient range without impairing operations and economics of freight movement. However, as with almost any clean technology, higher upfront capital costs of both vehicles and charging infrastructure are major barriers when electric trucking is in its infancy. Without strong policy support, coordinated investments in both vehicle manufacturing and fuel infrastructure will not be forthcoming on the scale needed to harness the true potential of battery electric trucks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Truck platooning in the U.S. national road network: A system-level modeling approach

Truck platooning enables a group of trucks to move close together, which helps reduce truck fuel use and increase effective road capacity. In this paper, a system-level equilibrium model is developed to characterize spontaneous truck platooning with coexistence of non-platooning vehicles in a network, by explicitly accounting for the interlocking relationship among platoon formation time, truck fuel saving, and increase in effective road capacity. To equilibrate the relationships, an algorithm is proposed which involves a diagonalization approach and a bush based algorithm to solve decomposed subproblems. The condition of proportionality is imposed to obtain unique traffic flows for each class of vehicles on road links. In addition, a spatially constrained multivariate clustering technique is employed to construct origin/destination zones that are smaller than the coarse Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) zones, while maintaining reasonable computational burden for network traffic assignment. Model implementation in the U.S. shows that platooning could lead to 7.9% fuel saving among platoonable trucks in 2025 and a comparable increase in effective capacity of platoonable road links, which would account for 60% of rural interstate roads. The fuel saving and road capacity improvement translate into an annual cost reduction of $\$$868 million for the U.S. intercity trucking sector and reduced road infrastructure investment needs worth $\$$4.8 billion. Extensive sensitivity analysis further reveals that fuel saving of platoonable trucks increases with platoon size but decreases with inter-truck distance in a platoon. Fuel saving potential suggests that priority should be given to rural rather than urban roads in deploying platooning technologies. As we expected, greater market penetration of platooning technologies means higher fuel saving and greater increase in effective road capacity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Powertrain Performance and Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Class 8 Yard Tractors and Refuse Trucks

Advanced powertrain technologies, specifically fuel cell electric powertrains, have gained attention as viable alternatives for medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles. However, it is unclear how these alternative powertrain vehicles stack up against their diesel counterparts in terms of performance and total cost of ownership (TCO). Furthermore, there are vehicle segments within the M/HD sector that have remained unstudied for fuel cell electric applications. This analysis aims to provide a comparative scoping-level TCO and performance analysis for two heavy-duty vocation vehicles (Class 8 U.S. port-side yard tractor and Class 8 U.S.-based refuse truck) for both conventional diesel and heavy-duty fuel cell electric (HDFC) powertrains. The refuse truck analysis also considered compressed natural gas powertrains (CNG) for comparison. The analysis includes seven timeframes (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050) for comparison. This simplified TCO analysis includes only direct costs (fuel price, glider purchase price, and operating & maintenance costs) and excludes any associated indirect cost (e.g., dwell time costs and other opportunity based costs). Representative drive cycles for each vehicle were based on on-board GPS logged data and chosen by the analysis team to represent average, non-extreme driving conditions. At the time the analysis was performed, the Inflation Reduction Act was not in effect and therefore any potential subsidies and future cost reductions enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act were not included. Based on the operational setpoints used in this analysis, HDFC powertrains for both yard tractors and refuse trucks have the potential to achieve TCO advantages over conventional diesel powertrains (and CNG for refuse truck applications) in the near- to mid-term future while meeting the necessary duty cycle performance requirements. Yard tractors and refuse trucks spend a significant amount of time operating at low speeds, with long durations of idling, and experience numerous start/stop occurrences. These operational characteristics favor fuel cell performance as fuel cells operate with higher efficiencies at lower percentages of total power output. Conversely, conventional diesel and CNG engines are most efficient at higher percentages of total power output. This helps HDFC powered yard tractors and refuse trucks realize improved fuel economy when compared to their diesel counterparts, which helps reduce total fuel costs and therefore, total TCO. The analysis demonstrates that fuel prices play a significant role in determining TCO for each vehicle and should remain an R&D focus area. Overall, under the analysis' specified conditions, HDFC yard tractors have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel yard tractors as early as 2025. For refuse trucks, HDFC refuse trucks have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel and CNG refuse trucks in 2030 and 2040, respectively.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Biomass feedstock transport using fuel cell and battery electric trucks improves lifecycle metrics of biofuel sustainability and economy

We report the use of new vehicle technologies such as fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric powertrains for biomass feedstock supply is an unexplored solution to reducing biofuel production cost, greenhouse gas emissions, and health impacts. These technologies have found success in light-duty vehicle applications and are in development for heavy-duty trucks. This study presents the first detailed stochastic techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment of biomass feedstock supply systems with diesel, fuel cell hybrid electric, and fully electric trucks and determines their impacts on biofuel production considering butanol as a representative biofuel. This study finds that fuel cell hybrid electric and fully electric trucks consume less energy relative to the diesel-powered truck regardless of the evaluated circumstances, including payloads of truck (loaded and empty), pavement types (gravel and paved), road conditions (normal and damaged), and road networks (local and highways). The use of fuel cell hybrid and fully electric trucks powered by H 2 -fuel and renewable sources of electricity, respectively, results in a large reduction in cost and carbon footprint, specifically for a long-distance hauling, and minimize other economic and environmental impacts. While the economic advantage of fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle is dependent on the price of H 2 -fuel and road conditions, use reduces the GHG emissions of biobutanol per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.98-10.9 gCO 2e /MJ. Results show that converting to fully electric truck transport decreases the biobutanol production cost and GHG emissions per 100 km-trucking-distance by 0.4-7.3 cents/L and 0.78 to 9.1 gCO 2e /MJ, respectively. This study establishes the foundation for future investigations that will guide the development of economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable biomass feedstock supply system for cellulosic biorefineries or other goods transportation systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Charging needs for electric semi-trailer trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for heavy-duty battery-electric semi-trailer trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. We leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging - mid-shift (fast) and off-shift (slow) - and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35% to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44% to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, demand shifts from mid-shift to off-shift charging as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available. Finally, we observe geographic trends in charging demand, finding that local trucks have greater demand within urban areas, whereas long-haul trucks have more demand along rural interstate corridors. As the range for battery-electric trucks increases, we show that charging demand shifts from rural to urban locations due to observed vehicle dwell tendencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Feasibility of Operating a Heavy-Duty Battery Electric Truck Fleet for Drayage Applications

Vehicle fleet electrification is regarded as one major pathway toward achieving energy independence and reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to light-duty and medium-duty vehicles, electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, especially Class 8 trucks, is more challenging owing to the battery size required to attain the driving range necessary for their operating goals. As drayage trucks generally have a limited daily mileage, return to a home base every night, and spend a large amount of time creeping and idling, drayage operation has been the first targeted application for Class 8 electric trucks. The feasibility of operating battery electric drayage trucks at the individual vehicle level has recently been demonstrated. However, questions remain as to whether these trucks are capable of meeting the needs of typical drayage operation at the fleet level. Here we present a feasibility analysis of operating an electric truck fleet based on real-world operation data of a diesel drayage operator in Southern California. Second-by-second activity data collected from 20 trucks in the fleet were used to estimate the corresponding electric energy consumption and the state of charge of the battery using a microscopic electric energy consumption model. An algorithm for generating tours of drayage activity from the collected data was developed and implemented. Multiple scenarios with different battery charging and truck scheduling assumptions were analyzed. The results show that 85% of the tours could be served by electric trucks if there is opportunity for charging at the home base during the time gap between consecutive tours.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Charging Needs for Battery Electric Semi-Trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for heavy-duty battery-electric semi-trailer trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. We leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging; mid-shift (fast) and off-shift (slow), and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35 to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44 to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, demand shifts from mid-shift to off-shift charging as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available. Finally, we observe geographic trends in charging demand, finding that local trucks have greater demand within urban areas, whereas long-haul trucks have more demand along rural interstate corridors. As the range for battery-electric trucks increases, we show that charging demand shifts from rural to urban locations due to observed vehicle dwell tendencies.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Impact of Lateral Alignment for Cooling Airflow during Heavy-Truck Platooning

A truck platooning system was tested using two heavy-duty tractor-trailer trucks on a closed test track to investigate the thermal control/heat rejection system sensitivity to intentional lateral offsets over a range of intervehicle spacings. Previous studies have shown the following vehicle can experience elevated temperatures and reduced airflow through the cooling package as a result of close-formation platooning. Four anemometers positioned across the grille of the following trucks as well as aligned and multiple offset positions are used to evaluate the sensitivity of the impact. Straight sections of the track are isolated for the most accurate airflow impact measurements and to be most representative of on-highway driving. An intentional lateral offset in truck platooning is considered as a controls approach to mitigate reduced cooling efficacy at close following scenarios where the highest platoon savings are achieved. The truck platooning system was tested at four gap distances from 9 to 23 meters and the following truck was either aligned with the lead or offset with a 25% width (0.65 m) or 50% width (1.3 m) lateral distance. The experimental results clearly show that offset driving is effective at bringing cooling airflow from 56% with an aligned platoon back up to 75%-80% with minimal impact to fuel savings. In addition, the offset driving can also reduce the trailing truck’s engine coolant temperature by 2°C and the corresponding underhood temperature rise by 10°C. The test outcomes indicate a plausible controls strategy to mitigate reduced cooling flow during hot-weather truck platooning while still enabling the highest-energy-saving, close-following scenarios.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Exploring the Effects of Population and Employment Characteristics on Truck Flows: An Analysis of NextGen NHTS Origin-Destination Data

Truck transportation remains the dominant mode of US freight transportation because of its advantages, such as the flexibility of accessing pickup and drop-off points and faster delivery. Because of the massive freight volume transported by trucks, understanding the effects of population and employment characteristics on truck flows is critical for better transportation planning and investment decisions. The US Federal Highway Administration published a truck travel origin-destination data set as part of the Next Generation National Household Travel Survey program. This data set contains the total number of truck trips in 2020 within and between 583 predefined zones encompassing metropolitan and nonmetropolitan statistical areas within each state and Washington, DC. In this study, origin-destination-level truck trip flow data was augmented to include zone-level population and employment characteristics from the US Census Bureau. Census population and County Business Patterns data were included. The final data set was used to train a machine learning algorithm-based model, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), where the target variable is the number of total truck trips. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) was adopted to explain the model results. Results showed that the distance between the zones was the most important variable and had a nonlinear relationship with truck flows.

Uddin, Majbah↗

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Experimental Fuel Consumption Results from a Heterogeneous Four-Truck Platoon

Platooning has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas missions of heavy-duty vehicles. Prior platooning studies have chiefly focused on the fuel economy characteristics and three-truck platoons, and most have investigated aerodynamically homogeneous platoons with trucks of the same trim. For real world application and accurate return on investment for potential adopters, non-uniform platoons and the impacts of grade and disturbances on a platoon’s fuel economy must also be characterized. This study investigates the fuel economy of a heterogeneous four-truck platoon on a closed test track. Tests were run for one hour at a speed of 45 mph. The trucks used for this study are two 2015 Peterbilt 579’s with a Cummins ISX15 and a Paccar MX-13, and two 2009 Freightliner M915A5’s, one armored and the other unarmored. Many analysis methodologies were leveraged to describe and compare the fuel data, including lap-wise and track-segment analysis. The methodology for dividing the data into laps is described in detail. The influence of other factors beyond the aerodynamics of platooning is discussed. CAN fuel rate analysis showed excellent agreement with previous experimental trends for two and three-truck platoons. In general, the indicated fuel economy benefits in this study were 5-11% for following vehicles and 0-4% for the lead vehicle in platoon relative to their baseline fuel consumption. On a cumulative basis, all platoons saved fuel, ranging from 6% to 8% versus the sum of the standalone trucks’ fuel consumption. The practical implications of the fuel economy results are discussed, as well as avenues for future research. Introduction and Motivation platooning is controlled coordination of two or more vehicles in a convoy, sometimes called CACC (Coordinated or Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control). The distance between vehicles in a platoon can be controlled tightly at no additional fatigue to the driver. Platooning vehicles can also respond quickly to braking events of the leader, much more quickly than the typical human driver’s reaction time of 1-1.5 s. Therefore, vehicles in a platoon can follow each other much more closely than would usually be considered a safe following distance under human operation. It is implied that under very close following conditions, platooning technology must be extremely robust before it is safe for wide-scale implementation. Platooning is under investigation as a fuel-saving technology. Close-following significantly reduces aerodynamic drag for both leading and trailing vehicles. According to the NRC in 2010, aerodynamic drag represents roughly half of a Class-8 truck’s on-highway fuel usage, meaning a 20% reduction in drag roughly equals a 10% reduction in fuel usage, if all other sources of energy loss remain equal (i.e. accessory, rolling resistance, drivetrain, braking). It is by aerodynamics that platooning saves fuel. At risk of oversimplifying the aerodynamics, following (or trailing) vehicles experience reduced wind velocity due to shielding, and the leading vehicles experience an increased aft pressure, especially at distances closer than 75’ (23 m).

greenhouse gas emissions, truck platoon, heavy-dut↗

Charging Needs for Battery Electric Semi Trucks

Battery-electric vehicles provide a pathway to decarbonize heavy-duty trucking, but the market for electric trucks is nascent, and specific charging requirements remain uncertain. This paper summarizes methods and findings from Charging Needs for Electric Semi-Trailer Trucks [1] wherein we leverage large-scale vehicle telematics data (>205 million miles of driving) to estimate the charging behaviors and infrastructure requirements for U.S. battery-electric semi-trailer trucks within three operating segments: local, regional, and long-haul. We model two types of charging - mid-shift (fast en-route charging) and off-shift (slow depot charging) - and show that off-shift charging at speeds compatible with current light-duty charging infrastructure (i.e., =350 kW) can supply 35% to 77% of total energy demand for local and regional trucks with =300-mile range. Megawatt-level speeds are required for mid-shift charging, which make up 44% to 57% of energy demand for long-haul trucks with =500-mile range. However, the role of off-shift charging increases as the range for battery-electric trucks increases and when off-shift charging is widely available.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Correlation between Sensor Performance, Autonomy Performance and Fuel-Efficiency in Semi-Truck Platoons

Semi-trucks, specifically class-8 trucks, have recently become a platform of interest for autonomy systems. Platooning involves multiple trucks following each n close proximity, with only the lead truck being manually driven and the rest being controlled autonomously. This approach to semi-truck autonomy is easily integrated on existing platforms, reduces delivery times, and reduces green- house gas emissions via fuel economy benefits. Level 1 SAE fuel studies were performed on class-8 trucks operating with the Auburn Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) system, and fuel savings up to 10-12% were seen. Enabling platooning autonomy required the use of radar, global positioning systems (GPS), and wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. Poor measurements and state estimates can lead to incorrect or missing positioning data, which can lead to unnecessary dynamics and finally wasted fuel. This is especially an issue if deceleration is applied in response to a bad measurement. In this study, a faulty radar was shown to cause a greater than 5% increase in fuel consumption. The mechanism of this fuel consumption increase is investigated and applied to other types of sensor failures to indicate their potential effects on fuel economy. This analysis indicates that poor GPS signals over short time can be largely filtered out, with no real gain or loss of fuel economy. V2V communications were intentionally limited by causing interference, which resulted in dropped communication packets over a small physical area, but not an appreciable impact on fuel economy.

vehicle platooning, sensor performance, semi-auton↗

Control Oriented Model of Cabin-HVAC System in a Long-Haul Trucks for Energy Management Applications

Super Truck II is a 48V mild hybrid class 8 truck with an all auxiliary loads powered purely by the battery pack. Electric Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) load is the most prominent battery load during the hotel period, when the truck driver is resting inside the sleeper. For the PACCAR Super Truck II (ST-II) project a 48 V battery system provides the required power during the hotel period. A cabin-HVAC model estimates the electric load on the 48V battery system, allowing the control system to implement an efficient energy management strategy that avoids engine idling during the hotel period. The thermal model accounts for the sun load due to the time of day and the geographic location of the truck during the hotel period. The cabin-HVAC model has two parts. First, a grey box model with two heat exchangers (Condenser and Evaporator) working in unison with refrigerant mass flow rate as an input and HVAC load as an output. Second, a two-node cabin model formulated to estimate the cabin temperature as a function of the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), HVAC load and ambient temperature. The models are calibrated using experimental cabin-HVAC system data as for long-haul class 8 truck (e.g. ST-II). Here, the model simulations show that the overall Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value of 0.4°C between the experimental and simulated cabin temperature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis

The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.

advanced powertrains↗