[Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones]
Tropical Storm Chantal during August 2001 was a storm that failed to intensify over the few days prior to making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. An observational study of Tropical Storm Chantal is presented using a diverse data set including remote and in situ measurements from the NASA ER-2 and DC-8 and the NOAA WP-3D N42RF aircraft and satellite data. The authors discuss the storm structure from the larger scale environment down to the convective scale. Large vertical shear (850-200 hPa shear magnitude range 8-15 m/s) plays a very important role in preventing Chantal from intensifying. The storm had a poorly defined vortex that only extended up to 5-6 km altitude, and an adjacent intense convective region that comprised an Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). The entire low-level circulation center was in the rain-free western side of the storm, about 80 km to the west-southwest of the MCS. The MCS appears to have been primarily the result of intense convergence between large scale, low-level easterly flow with embedded downdrafts, and the cyclonic vortex flow. The individual cells in the MCS such as Cell 2 during the period of the observations, were extremely intense with reflectivity core diameters of 10 km and peak updrafts exceeding 20 m/s. Associated with this MCS were two broad subsidence (warm) regions both of which had portions over the vortex. The first layer near 700 hPa was directly above the vortex and covered most of it. The second layer near 500 hPa was along the forward and right flanks of Cell 2 and undercut the anvil divergence region above. There was not much resemblance of these subsidence layers to typical upper level warm cores in hurricanes that are necessary to support strong surface winds and a low central pressure. The observations are compared to previous studies of weakly sheared storms and modeling studies of shear effects and intensification. The configuration of the convective updrafts, low-level circulation, and lack of vertical coherence between the upper and low level warming regions, likely inhibited intensification of Chantal. This configuration is consistent with modeling of vortices in sheared environments, which suggest strongest convection and rain in the downshear left quadrant of the storm, and subsidence in the upshear right quadrant. The vertical shear profile is however different from what was assumed in previous modeling in that the winds are strongest in the lowest levels and the deep tropospheric vertical shear is on the order of 10-12 m/s.