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14 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Urbanization may enhance tornado potential: A single case report

Tornadoes pose a risk of catastrophic economic loss and casualty in the United States. Modification of land use by urbanization alters the meteorological conditions that may impact tornado formation and intensification processes. Here we explored the simulated impact of Kansas City urbanization on the tornado potential of a supercell storm. In this studied case, we found that urbanization might enhance tornado potential by a) strengthening the low-level streamwise vorticity in the storm inflow region, thus forming stronger rotating updrafts; and b) intensifying near-surface horizontal vorticity near the boundary of the forward-flank cold pool which increases the ingestion, tilting, and stretching of streamwise horizontal vorticity into vertical vorticity. The former results from the stronger east-to-west pressure perturbation gradient due to the faster, stronger outflow boundary, and the latter is mainly a result of stronger cold fronts and a better alignment of storm-relative inflow with the horizontal vorticity vector. We emphasize that our conclusions only represent one possibility of how urbanization would affect tornado potential, and a more systematic examination is needed to achieve a more general conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Future of Supercells in the United States

A supercell is a distinct type of intense, long-lived thunderstorm that is defined by its quasi-steady, rotating updraft. Supercells are responsible for most damaging hail and deadly tornadoes, causing billions of dollars in losses and hundreds of casualties annually. This research uses high-resolution, convection-permitting climate simulations across 15-yr epochs that span the twenty-first century to assess how supercells may change across the United States. Specifically, the study explores how late-twentieth-century supercell populations compare with their late-twenty-first-century counterparts for two—intermediate and pessimistic—anthropogenic climate change trajectories. An algorithm identifies, segments, and tracks supercells in the simulation output using updraft helicity, which measures the magnitude of corkscrew flow through a storm’s updraft and is a common proxy for supercells. Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains. Supercell risk is expected to escalate outside of the traditional severe storm season, with supercells and their perils likely to increase in late winter and early spring months under both emissions scenarios. Conversely, the latter part of the severe storm season may be curtailed, with supercells expected to decrease midsummer through early fall. These results suggest the potential for more significant tornadoes, hail, and extreme rainfall that, when combined with an increasingly vulnerable society, may produce disastrous consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Madden-Julian oscillation influences United States springtime tornado and hail frequency

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics and has a documented influence on extratropical extreme weather through modulation of synoptic atmospheric conditions. MJO phase has been correlated with anomalous tornado and severe hail frequency in the United States (US). However, the robustness of this relationship is unsettled, and the variability of physical pathways to modulation is poorly understood, despite the socioeconomic impacts that tornadoes and hail evoke. We approached this problem using pentad MJO indices and practically perfect severe weather hindcasts. MJO lifecycles were cataloged and clustered to document variability and potential pathways to enhanced subseasonal tornado and hail predictability. Statistically significant increases in US tornado and hail probabilities were documented 3–4 weeks following the period of the strongest upper-level divergence for the 53 active MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent, contrasting with the 47 MJO events that experienced the barrier effect, during boreal spring 1979–2019. The 53 MJO events that propagated past the Maritime continent revealed three prevailing MJO evolutions—each containing unique pathways and modulation of US tornado and hail frequency—advancing our knowledge and capability to anticipate these hazards at extended lead times.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-century climate change impacts on tornado-producing tropical cyclones

Tornadoes are a co-occurring extreme that can be produced by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). These tornadoes can exacerbate the loss of life and property damage caused by the TC from which they were spawned. It is uncertain how the severe weather environments of landfalling TCs may change in a future climate and how this could impact tornado activity from TCs. In this study, we investigated four TCs that made landfall in the U.S. and produced large tornado outbreaks. We performed four-member ensembles of convective-allowing (4-km resolution) regional climate model simulations representing each TC in the historical climate and a mid-twenty-first century future climate. To identify potentially tornadic storms, or TC-tornado (TCT) surrogates, we used thresholds for three-hourly maximum updraft helicity and radar reflectivity, as tornadoes are not resolved in the model. We found that the ensemble-mean number of TCT-surrogates increased substantially (56–299%) in the future, supported by increases in most-unstable convective available potential energy, surface-to-700-hPa bulk wind shear, and 0–1-km storm-relative helicity in the tornado-producing region of the TCs. On the other hand, future changes in most-unstable convective inhibition had minimal influence on future TCT-surrogates. This provides robust evidence that tornado activity from TCs may increase in the future. Furthermore, TCT-surrogate frequency between 00Z and 09Z increased for three of the four cases, suggesting enhanced tornado activity at night, when people are asleep and more likely to miss warnings. All of these factors indicate that TC-tornadoes may become more frequent and a greater hazard in the future, compounding impacts from future increases in TC winds and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Hazard Assessment for Tornadoes, Straight-Line Wind, and Extreme Precipitation at the Savannah River Site

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities – tornadoes, straight-line winds, and heavy precipitation – are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate the occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 2013 by Werth et al. (W2013) are given. Using tornado statistics for i) the combined states of Georgia and South Carolina, and ii) a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS, we calculated the probability per year of any location at SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probability that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 7.04E-4 (1 chance in 1420) per year and tornadic wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years (corresponding to wind design category 3 (WDC-3), and 125,000 years (meeting WDC-4) (USDOE, 2016) were estimated to be 132 mph and 147 mph, respectively. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years and 173 mph every 125,000 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS and the SRS evaluation used the same basic model (Ramsdell and Rishel, 2007), the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight-line wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a GEV1 distribution and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight-line winds of 117 mph every 2500 years (the required WDC-3 standard) and 125 mph every 6250 years (WDC-4) at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the ANS-2.3-2011 report, which has wind speeds of 125mph and 133 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation, we compared the fits of two different theoretical extreme-value distributions and applied the one that fit the data best for each of several accumulation periods. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 10,000 years (corresponding to precipitation design category 3 (PDC-3) and 25,000 years (PDC-4) were estimated as 9.1 inches and 10.1 inches, respectively. For the 24-hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 12.02 inches and 13.17 inches, respectively, higher than comparable values provided in the W2013 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Coplnger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗
DOE OSTI1996

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 37, No. 1, January-March 1996]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 A Decision Support System for Maintenance Management of a Boiling-Water Reactor Power Plant, J. H. Shen, A. Ray, and S. Levine; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 12 On Prediction of the Ignition Potential of Uranium Metal and Hydride, M. Epstein, W. Luangdilok, M. G. Plys, and H. K. Fauske; 26 An Overview of the Primary Parameters and Methods for Determining Condensation Heat Transfer to Containment Structures, J. Green and K. Almenas; DESIGN FEATURES: 49 Modem Tornado Design of Nuclear and Other Potentially Hazardous Facilities, J. D. Stevenson and Y. Zaho; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 73 1994 Accident Sequence Precursor Program Results, R. J. Belles, J. W. Cletcher, D. A. Copinger, B. W. Dolan, J. W. Minarick, and P. D. O'Reilly; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 93 American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AlChE) Spring 1997 National Meeting; 94 European Safety and Reliability Association International Conference on Safety and Reliability ESREL ’97; 95 Criticality Safety Challenges in the Next Decade; 96 21st International Symposium on the Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management; 84 The Authors; 88 Letter to the Editor; 90 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 36.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

GEFSv12 High- and Low-Skill Day-10 Tornado Forecasts

Abstract On average, modern numerical weather prediction forecasts for daily tornado frequency exhibit no skill beyond day 10. However, in this extended-range lead window, there are particular model cycles that have exceptionally high forecast skill for tornadoes because of their ability to correctly simulate the future synoptic pattern. Here, model initial conditions that produced a more skillful forecast for tornadoes over the United States were exploited while also highlighting potential causes for low-skill cycles within the Global Ensemble Forecasting System, version 12 (GEFSv12). There were 88 high-skill and 91 low-skill forecasts in which the verifying day-10 synoptic pattern for tornado conditions revealed a western U.S. thermal trough and an eastern U.S. thermal ridge, a favorable configuration for tornadic storm occurrence. Initial conditions for high skill forecasts tended to exhibit warmer sea surface temperatures throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, an active Madden–Julian oscillation, and significant modulation of Earth-relative atmospheric angular momentum. Low-skill forecasts were often initialized during La Niña and negative Pacific decadal oscillation conditions. Significant atmospheric blocking over eastern Russia—in which the GEFSv12 overforecast the duration and characteristics of the downstream flow—was a common physical process associated with low-skill forecasts. This work helps to increase our understanding of the common causes of high- or low-skill extended-range tornado forecasts and could serve as a helpful tool for operational forecasters. Significance Statement This research provides a framework for the anticipation of a more (or less) skillful 10-day tornado forecast in an operational numerical weather prediction system. High-skill forecasts were associated with substantial tropical convection and warm sea surface temperature throughout the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, whereas the underlying cause of low-skill forecasts were typically associated with a blocking anticyclone over eastern Russia. These findings are important because they permit increased or decreased confidence in a long-range forecast of tornado occurrence based on a dynamical prediction system.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Potential Roles of Preexisting Airmass Boundaries on a Tornadic Supercell Observed by TORUS on 28 May 2019

On 28 May 2019, a tornadic supercell, observed as part of Targeted Observation by UAS and Radars of Supercells (TORUS) produced an EF-2 tornado near Tipton, Kansas. The supercell was observed to interact with multiple preexisting airmass boundaries. These boundaries and attendant air masses were examined using unoccupied aircraft system (UAS), mobile mesonets, radiosondes, and dual-Doppler analyses derived from TORUS mobile radars. The cool-side air mass of one of these boundaries was found to have higher equivalent potential temperature and backed winds relative to the warm-side air mass; features associated with mesoscale air masses with high theta-e (MAHTEs). It is hypothesized that these characteristics may have facilitated tornadogenesis. The two additional boundaries were produced by a nearby supercell and appeared to weaken the tornadic supercell. This work represents the first time that UAS have been used to examine the impact of preexisting airmass boundaries on a supercell, and it provides insights into the influence environmental heterogeneities can have on the evolution of a supercell.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience: A Case Study

As renewable energy technologies are increasingly adopted, they pose an opportunity to improve the sustainability and resilience of distributed grids, especially when their design and operation is coordinated as a hybrid power plant. When included in hybrid power plants, distributed wind turbines in particular have the potential to enhance the resilience of distributed grids in areas with good wind resource, due to their ability to provide more consistent generation and ancillary services as compared to photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels. Despite this benefit, U.S. distributed wind adoption is lower than other comparable renewable energy technologies. In this study, we seek to demonstrate how hybrid power plants that include distributed wind turbines can contribute to distribution grid resilience by meeting loads (especially critical loads) more consistently, increasing reserve capacity, and providing value to customers during outages. To demonstrate these contributions, we integrate three separate frameworks and apply them to a case study in a rural electric cooperative in Iowa. Through this case study, we simulate and compare hybrid power plant design and operation during two hazard events: a tornado that causes a 48-hour distribution outage and a winter weather event that causes a 6-hour generation outage. The inclusion of a hybrid power plant that leverages 1) increased battery duration and 2) advanced forecasting and dispatch strategies that reserve capacity leading up to a hazard event best reduce lost loads as well as diesel consumption that would otherwise be used to meet those loads during short- and long-duration hazard events. Depending on the hybrid power plant capacity and operation, we find that the outage mitigation value of a hybrid power plant (measured in value to customers to avoid an outage and avoided lost revenues for the utility) is significant in both hazard events; adding wind, solar, and battery assets to the existing system adds about $50-$100M in avoided lost load and at least $4-$8k in utility value in the tornado hazard event, and $570k-$2.2M in avoided lost load and at least $220-$650 in utility value in the winter hazard scenario. In both the tornado and winter hazard scenarios, optimizing the operation of the hybrid system for resilience can lend similar value as increasing battery duration by 5 MWh for the lower capacity systems considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Thermodynamic Effects on Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems and Isolated Deep Convection Over the US: A Case Study

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection (IDC) significantly influence local weather conditions and the hydrological cycle across the United States. Their future changes under warming is critical to the society. However, the exact impacts of thermodynamic environmental changes on them are difficult to resolve using climate model simulations which integrate both dynamic and thermodynamic factors. This study explores a theoretical modeling approach to isolate environmental thermodynamic effects on their future changes through a case study. For a 50-day period during the 2020 summer, a pair of convection-permitting model simulations indicate contrasting changes in MCSs and IDC between inland and coastal regions under pseudo global warming. Driven by the thermodynamic environments of these simulations, a single-column parcel model indicates a decrease in the frequency of IDC occurrences, along with increases in duration and precipitation amount under warming, attributable to rising most unstable convective available potential energy (MUCAPE), convective inhibition (MUCIN), and precipitable water (PW). A multi-column parcel model reveals contrasting changes in the frequency and mean area of MCSs between inland and coastal regions, underscoring the increase in mean MUCIN over inland regions and increases in mean MUCAPE and PW over coastal regions. The increase in mean MCS area over inland regions is linked to the interplay between accelerated gust fronts and enhanced subsidence strength, which is further traced to the unchanged mean MUCIN but increased mean MUCAPE in large-scale environments. In conclusion, these case study results suggest a major role of thermodynamic environmental changes in controlling characteristics of MCSs and IDC under warming.

Mesoscale convective system↗
DOE OSTI2025

Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity

Wildfires are favored by hot, dry, windy, rainless conditions—this knowledge about fire weather informs both short-term forecast and long-term prediction of wildfire activity. Yet, wildfires rely on the availability of ignition and fuel, which are underrepresented in fire forecast and prediction practices. By analyzing satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, here we show that near-surface weather only partially captures wildfire occurrence and intensity across the daily to seasonal timescales. Beyond near-surface weather, convection and fuel abundance play a complementary role in regulating burning processes. Specifically, enhanced atmospheric convection is identified for over 40% of the low-human-impact regions and 61% of global burnable areas during wildfire ignition and spreading periods. Meanwhile, 56% of shrublands and 54% of grasslands see higher fuel load with actual occurrence of fire. Our results highlight the role of convection and fuel in wildfire forecast, prompting a revisit of wildfire prediction under intertwined atmospheric and terrestrial changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗