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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signatures

Understanding and distinguishing temporal patterns in time series data is essential for scientific discovery and decision-making. For example, in biomedical research, uncovering meaningful patterns in physiological signals can improve diagnosis, risk assessment, and patient outcomes. However, existing methods for time series pattern discovery face major challenges, including high computational complexity, limited interpretability, and difficulty in capturing meaningful temporal structures. Here, to address these gaps, we introduce a novel learning framework that jointly trains two Transformer models using complementary time series representations: shapelet-based representations to capture localized temporal structures and traditional feature engineering to encode statistical properties. The learned shapelets serve as interpretable signatures that differentiate time series across classification labels. Additionally, we develop a visual analytics system—SigTime—with coordinated views to facilitate exploration of time series signatures from multiple perspectives, aiding in useful insights generation. We quantitatively evaluate our learning framework on eight publicly available datasets and one proprietary clinical dataset. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our system through two usage scenarios along with the domain experts: one involving public ECG data and the other focused on preterm labor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous extraction of millimeter-scale deformation in InSAR time series using deep learning

Systematically characterizing slip behaviours on active faults is key to unraveling the physics of tectonic faulting and the interplay between slow and fast earthquakes. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), by enabling measurement of ground deformation at a global scale every few days, may hold the key to those interactions. However, atmospheric propagation delays often exceed ground deformation of interest despite state-of-the art processing, and thus InSAR analysis requires expert interpretation and a priori knowledge of fault systems, precluding global investigations of deformation dynamics. Here, we show that a deep auto-encoder architecture tailored to untangle ground deformation from noise in InSAR time series autonomously extracts deformation signals, without prior knowledge of a fault’s location or slip behaviour. Applied to InSAR data over the North Anatolian Fault, our method reaches 2 mm detection, revealing a slow earthquake twice as extensive as previously recognized. We further explore the generalization of our approach to inflation/deflation-induced deformation, applying the same methodology to the geothermal field of Coso, California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On Neural Architectures for Astronomical Time-series Classification with Application to Variable Stars

Despite the utility of neural networks (NNs) for astronomical time-series classification, the proliferation of learning architectures applied to diverse data sets has thus far hampered a direct intercomparison of different approaches. Here we perform the first comprehensive study of variants of NN-based learning and inference for astronomical time series, aiming to provide the community with an overview on relative performance and, hopefully, a set of best-in-class choices for practical implementations. In both supervised and self-supervised contexts, we study the effects of different time-series-compatible layer choices, namely the dilated temporal convolutional neural network (dTCNs), long-short term memory NNs, gated recurrent units and temporal convolutional NNs (tCNNs). Additionally, we also study the efficacy and performance of encoder-decoder (i.e., autoencoder) networks compared to direct classification networks, different pathways to include auxiliary (non-time-series) metadata, and different approaches to incorporate multi-passband data (i.e., multiple time series per source). Performance—applied to a sample of 17,604 variable stars (VSs) from the MAssive Compact Halo Objects (MACHO) survey across 10 imbalanced classes—is measured in training convergence time, classification accuracy, reconstruction error, and generated latent variables. We find that networks with recurrent NNs generally outperform dTCNs and, in many scenarios, yield to similar accuracy as tCNNs. In learning time and memory requirements, convolution-based layers perform better. We conclude by discussing the advantages and limitations of deep architectures for VS classification, with a particular eye toward next-generation surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the Roman Space Telescope, and Zwicky Transient Facility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Controller area network decoder (CAN-D)

A system and method for decoding an unknown automotive controller area network (“CAN”) message definitions. CAN data vehicle signal mappings are typically held in secret and varied by automotive model and year. Without knowledge of the mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle data hidden in the automotive CAN packets is uninterpretable—impeding research, after-market tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, fault diagnosis, and privacy-related technologies. This technology can ascertain the CAN signals' boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (binary-to-integer encoding) from raw CAN data. This allows conversion of CAN data to time series. Interpreting the translated CAN data's physical meaning and finding a linear mapping to standard units (e.g., knowing the signal is speed and scaling values to represent units of miles per hour) can be achieved for many signals by leveraging diagnostic standards to obtain real-time measurements of in-vehicle systems. The system and method can be integrated into lightweight hardware enabling an OBD-II plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding or run on standard computers. The system can output a standard DBC file with the signal definition information.

Verma, Kiren E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

System for controller area network payload decoding

A system for decoding an unknown automotive controller area network (“CAN”) message definitions. CAN data vehicle signal mappings are typically held in secret and varied by automotive model and year. Without knowledge of the mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle data hidden in the automotive CAN packets is uninterpretable—impeding research, after-market tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, fault diagnosis, and privacy-related technologies. This system can ascertain the CAN signals' boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (binary-to-integer encoding) from raw CAN data. This allows conversion of CAN data to time series. Interpreting the translated CAN data's physical meaning and finding a linear mapping to standard units (e.g., knowing the signal is speed and scaling values to represent units of miles per hour) can be achieved for many signals by leveraging diagnostic standards to obtain real-time measurements of in-vehicle systems. The system can be integrated into lightweight hardware enabling an OBD-II plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding or run on standard computers. The system can output a standard DBC file with the signal definition information.

Verma, Kiren E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive model for real-time energy disaggregation using long short-term memory

To provide affordable energy-saving solutions for the small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), we propose a unified framework for generating predictive models that support real-time disaggregation of power consumption from combined inputs, enabling automatic machine state identification simultaneously for joint analysis of energy usage patterns. Further, the proposed framework transforms raw power consumption into a time series with look-back and bootstrap capabilities for historical pattern detection, while a learning architecture utilizes the stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) layers as encoders for embedding generation with sequential awareness. Experimental results demonstrate 93.65% minimum accuracy in ideal case of real-time energy usage and machine state prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Latent-Space Dynamics for Prediction and Fault Detection in Geothermal Power Plant Operations

This paper presents a latent-space dynamic neural network (LSDNN) model for the multi-step-ahead prediction and fault detection of a geothermal power plant’s operation. The model was trained to learn the dynamics of the power generation process from multivariate time-series data and the effects of exogenous variables, such as control adjustment and ambient temperature. In the LSDNN model, an encoder–decoder architecture was designed to capture cross-correlation among different measured variables. In addition, a latent space dynamic structure was proposed to propagate the dynamics in the latent space to enable prediction. The prediction power of the LSDNN was utilized for monitoring a geothermal power plant and detecting abnormal events. The model was integrated with principal component analysis (PCA)-based process monitoring techniques to develop a fault-detection procedure. The performance of the proposed LSDNN model and fault detection approach was demonstrated using field data collected from a geothermal power plant.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor as efficient architecture for learning time-evolution in multi-scale turbulent flows

We introduce a scale-aware, data-driven deep learning modeling framework for accurately predicting the time evolution of multi-scale turbulent plasma and liquid flows. The approach is motivated by the idea of scale separation. Structures of vastly different length scales emerge in these systems, and interactions between these structures occur only locally. To exploit this structure, the flow state is transformed by a hierarchical, fully convolutional autoencoder, not into a single embedding layer as in conventional convolutional surrogate models, but into a series of embedding layers. A stepwise training strategy ensures that fine-scale features are encoded on a high-resolution grid, while larger structures are represented on progressively coarser layers. The time evolution predictor advances all embedding layers in sync, capturing local interactions between features at the same scale as well as between all scales. This approach enables efficient modeling of multi-scale systems since negligible interactions between distant, small-scale structures do not need to be directly modeled. Our hierarchical-embedding autoencoder with a predictor framework is evaluated on canonical examples of multi-scale turbulence: two-dimensional Kolmogorov flow and Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma turbulence. In both cases, the proposed framework significantly improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional convolutional network architectures. A significant improvement in prediction accuracy was observed for crucial statistical characteristics of the Hasegawa–Wakatani plasma as well as for individual trajectories of the Kolmogorov flow turbulence. Importantly, the model's rollout for the Hasegawa–Wakatani problem demonstrates a four-order-of-magnitude speedup compared to traditional numerical solvers.

Khrabry, Alexander I. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dimensionally Reduced Model for Rapid and Accurate Prediction of Gas Saturation, Pressure, and Brine Production in a CO 2 Storage Application: Case Study Using the SACROC Field as Part of SMART Task 5

This technical report presents work conducted by the sub surface analysis team of the Strategic Systems Analysis & Engineering group at NETL for Task 5 of SMART Phase 1. This study involved the development of deep learning models for CO 2 geologic storage that are capable of accurate prediction of spatio-temporal outputs of CO 2 saturation, pressure, and brine production in three dimensional space over a storage operation's injection and post-injection timeframes. The model framework involves ensembling multi-layer encoder networks that provide dimesionality reduction of geologic inputs with fully connected long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks that generate time-series prediction This approach offers a means to maximize training time efficiency, reduce computational memory burden, and minimize prediction turnaround.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ATAT: Astronomical Transformer for time series and Tabular data

Context. The advent of next-generation survey instruments, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), is opening a window for new research in time-domain astronomy. The Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) was created to test the capacity of brokers to deal with a simulated LSST stream. Aims. Our aim is to develop a next-generation model for the classification of variable astronomical objects. We describe ATAT, the Astronomical Transformer for time series And Tabular data, a classification model conceived by the ALeRCE alert broker to classify light curves from next-generation alert streams. ATAT was tested in production during the first round of the ELAsTiCC campaigns. Methods. ATAT consists of two transformer models that encode light curves and features using novel time modulation and quantile feature tokenizer mechanisms, respectively. ATAT was trained on different combinations of light curves, metadata, and features calculated over the light curves. We compare ATAT against the current ALeRCE classifier, a balanced hierarchical random forest (BHRF) trained on human-engineered features derived from light curves and metadata. Results. When trained on light curves and metadata, ATAT achieves a macro F1 score of 82.9 ± 0.4 in 20 classes, outperforming the BHRF model trained on 429 features, which achieves a macro F1 score of 79.4 ± 0.1. Conclusions. The use of transformer multimodal architectures, combining light curves and tabular data, opens new possibilities for classifying alerts from a new generation of large etendue telescopes, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory, in real-world brokering scenarios.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum Algorithm for Simulating Hamiltonian Dynamics with an Off-diagonal Series Expansion

We propose an efficient quantum algorithm for simulating the dynamics of general Hamiltonian systems. Our technique is based on a power series expansion of the time-evolution operator in its off-diagonal terms. The expansion decouples the dynamics due to the diagonal component of the Hamiltonian from the dynamics generated by its off-diagonal part, which we encode using the linear combination of unitaries technique. Our method has an optimal dependence on the desired precision and, as we illustrate, generally requires considerably fewer resources than the current state-of-the-art. We provide an analysis of resource costs for several sample models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long–short-term memory encoder–decoder with regularized hidden dynamics for fault detection in industrial processes

The ability of recurrent neural networks (RNN) to model nonlinear dynamics of high dimensional process data has enabled data-driven RNN-based fault detection algorithms. Previous studies have focused on detecting faults by identifying the discrepancies in data distribution between the faulty and normal data, as reflected in prediction errors generated by RNN models. However, in industrial processes, variations in data distribution can also result from changes in normal control setpoints and compensatory control adjustments in response to disturbances, making it hard to differentiate between normal and faulty conditions. This paper proposes a fault detection method utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) encoder–decoder structure with regularized hidden dynamics and reversible instance normalization (RevIN) to compactly represent high-dimensional measurements for effective monitoring. During training, the hidden states of the model are regularized to form a low-dimensional latent space representation of the original multivariate time series data. As a result, the prediction errors of the latent states can be used to monitor the abnormal dynamic variations, while the reconstruction errors of the measured variables are used to monitor the abnormal static variations. Furthermore, the proposed indices can reflect operating conditions, even when the distribution of test data changes, which helps distinguish faults from normal adjustments and disturbances that controllers can settle. Here, data from numerical simulation and the Tennessee Eastman process are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

CONFIDANTE Demonstration Prototype Report

This report summarizes design optimization and performance evaluation studies for a new prototype CONFIDANTE (CONfirmation using a Fast-neutron Imaging Detector with Anti-image Null-positive Time Encoding) warhead confirmation system. It was found that a spherical mask geometry and a 2” diameter cylindrical central detector is expected to best discriminate between the parametrically varied source distributions that were evaluated. The optimized design as fabricated and its performance was evaluated in a series of laboratory measurements. The performance was in good agreement with the design studies, with demonstrated discrimination between objects with differences in scale on the order of 5 centimeters or better at 1 meter stand-off

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Schrödinger Equation Implementations with Gray Code for Adiabatic Quantum Computers

We reformulate the continuous-space Schrödinger equation in terms of spin Hamiltonians. For the kinetic energy operator, the critical concept facilitating the reduction in model complexity is the idea of position encoding. A binary encoding of position produces a spin-1/2 Heisenberg-like model and yields exponential improvement in space complexity when compared to classical computing. Encoding with a binary reflected Gray code (BRGC), and a Hamming-distance-2 Gray code (H2GC) reduces the model complexity down to the 𝑋⁢𝑍 and transverse Ising model, respectively. For 𝐴 qubits BRGC yields 2 𝐴 positions and is reduced to its 2-local form with O⁡(𝐴) ancillary qubits. H2GC yields 2 𝐴/2+1 positions with O⁡(𝐴 2 ) three-local penalty terms. We also identify the bijective mapping between diagonal unitaries and the Walsh series, producing the mapping of any real potential to a series of 𝑘 -local Ising models through the fast Walsh transform. Finally, in a finite volume, we provide some numerical evidence to support the claim that the total time needed for adiabatic evolution is protected by the infrared cutoff of the system. As a result, initial state preparation from a free-field wave function to an interacting system is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with volume and constant scaling with respect to lattice discretization for all encodings. For H2GC, if the evolution starts with the transverse Hamiltonian due to hardware restrictions, then penalties are dynamically introduced such that the low-lying spectrum reproduces the energy levels of the Laplacian. The adiabatic evolution of the penalty Hamiltonian is therefore sensitive to the ultraviolet scale. It is expected to exhibit polynomial time complexity with lattice discretization, or exponential time complexity with respect to the number of qubits given a fixed volume.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗