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At least 19 records

Global Lightning Variations Caused by Changes in Thunderstorm Flash Rate and by Changes in Number of Thunderstorms

Global lightning activity is highly variable on many time scales. This variability is attributable to changes in the flash rate per thunderstorm, the number of thunderstorms, or a combination. The TRMM Mission offers lightning observations from the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) in space. Both are used to examine the response of these parameters to thermodynamic forcing of deep convection on the diurnal and annual time scales. On both time scales, the changes in the number of storms dominate the variations in total lightning activity. On the diurnal time scale, the mean flash rate appears to vary with cloud buoyancy, peaking in early afternoon and declining in late afternoon, but the contribution of number of thunderstorms is 2-3 times greater that the mean storm flash rate. On the annual time scale, almost all of the total lightning response is due to changes in the number of storms, with a negligible contribution from flash rate. Evidence is presented that the LIS/OTD 'area' is a meaningful objective identifier for a thunderstorm.

Williams, E. K.

Preliminary Analysis of NACA Measurements of Atmospheric Turbulence Within a Thunderstorm - U.S. Weather Bureau Thunderstorm Project

A general description of the field operations of the U.S. Weather Bureau thunderstorm project conducted in the vicinity of Orlando, Florida during the summer month of 1946 is given. The participation of NACA in this project is described and measurements of atmospheric turbulence taken by NACA are presented for one of the flights. The results indicate that some regions of thunderstorms may present no great hazard to flight, while exceptionally severe conditions of atmospheric turbulence may occur in other regions, or even in the same region, at about the same time. The results also indicate that these severe conditions of turbulence might lead to loss of control with the possible loss of the airplane.

Tolefson, Harold B

A study of lightning in winter thunderstorms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight data

Thunderstorms and the activities associated with them was the emphasis of this final report. The primary goal of the investigation of the dynamics, microphysics, and the electrical properties of tropical thunderstorms, was to understand the process or processes which initiate the precipitation in various convective clouds. A concept that the degree of atmospheric instability that determines the updraft velocity is different between those storms that generate electrical activity and those that do not. This is apparent in temperate latitudes, but in tropical regions, little knowledge of these interactions is available. Several ground monitoring stations have been set up and, along with a waveform recorder at one of the stations, the data collected from these stations will be analyzed in conjunction with other data collected from ship and airborne radars and airborne in situ measurements of electrical activity in coordination with the TOGA-COARE program.

Brook, Marx

The THOR Project-Reducing the Impact of Thunderstorms on Aviation and the General Public Through a Multi-Agency Effect

Thunderstorms are high impact weather phenomena. They also pose an extremely challenging forecast problem. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), have decided to pool technology and scientific expertise into an unprecedented effort to better observe, diagnose, and forecast thunderstorms. This paper describes plans for an operational field test called the THunderstorm Operational Research (THOR) Project beginning in 2002, the primary goals of which are to: 1) Reduce the number of Thunderstorm-related Air Traffic Delays with in the National Airspace System (NAS) and, 2) Improve severe thunderstorm, tornado and airport thunderstorm warning accuracy and lead time. Aviation field operations will be focused on the prime air traffic bottleneck in the NAS, the airspace bounded roughly by Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C., sometimes called the Northeast Corridor. A variety of new automated thunderstorm forecasting applications will be tested here that, when implemented into FAA-NWS operations, will allow for better tactical decision making and NAS management during thunderstorm days. Severe thunderstorm operations will be centered on Northern Alabama. NWS meteorologists from the forecast office in Birmingham will test the utility of experimental lightning, radar, and profiler data from a mesoscale observing network being established by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. In addition, new tornado detection and thunderstorm nowcasting algorithms will be examined for their potential for improving warning accuracy. The Alabama THOR site will also serve as a test bed for new gridded, digital thunderstorm and flash flood warning products.

Smith, Stephan B.

Doppler radar signatures of developing thunderstorms and their potential to indicate the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning

The capability of Doppler weather radars to short-term forecast the initiation of thunderstorms and the onset of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is examined. Doppler weather radar data from 28 thunderstorms were analyzed from August 1990 in the central Florida environment. These radar echoes were associated with CG lightning strike locations from the National Lightning Detection Network and two lightning detection systems operated by the U.S. Air Force in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center. From a time history of these radar echoes it was found that a 10-dBZ echo, first detected near the freezing level, may be the first definitive echo of a future thunderstorm. This thunderstorm initiation signature is often accompanied by low-altitude convergence and divergence at the top of the radar echo. The observed lead times between this thunderstorm initiation signature and the first detected CG lightning strike ranged from 5 to 45 min with a median lead time of 15 min. All lightning-producing radar echoes were detected using the thunderstorm initiation signature; however, some echoes exceeded the 10-dBZ threshold and did not produce andy CG lightning. The charecteristics of the WSR-88D and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar systems are evaluated for their capability to detect the thunderstorm initiation signature in central Florida with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution.

Hondl, Kurt D.

Joint thunderstorm operations using the NASA F-106B and FAATC/AFWAL Convair 580 airplanes

During the 1985 thunderstorm season, three joint thunderstorm research flights were conducted within 100 n.mi. of NASA Langley by the NASA Storm Hazards F-106B and the FAA/USAF CV-580 research airplanes with ground-based weather radar measurements by NASA Wallops. This paper discusses the thunderstorm penetration capabilities of each airplane and the techniques used to safely place the two airplanes into the same thunderstorm cell for collection of correlated EM data. It is concluded that joint thunderstorm research operations of two aircraft with significantly dissimilar thunderstorm penetration capabilities are counterproductive to both airplanes.

Fisher, B. D.

Relationship between solar activities and thunderstorm activities in the Beijing area and the northeast region of China

An analysis of the relationship between the IMF section boundary crossing, solar flares, the sunspot 11 year cycle variation and the thunderstorm index is given, using the superposition epoch method, for data from more than 13,000 thunderstorms from 10 meteorological stations in the Beijing area and the Northeast region during 1957 to 1978. The results show that for some years a correlation exists between the thunderstorm index and the positive IMF section boundary crossing. The thunderstorm index increases obviously within three days near the crossing and on the seventh day after the crossing. The influence of the crossing on thunderstorms is stronger in the first half year than the latter half year. For different classes of solar flares, the influences are not equally obvious. The solar flares which appeared on the west side, especially in the western region (from 0 to 30 deg) have the most obvious influence. There is no discernible correlation between the thunderstorm index and the sunspot eleven-year cycle.

Zhuang, Hong C.

Time-averaged current analysis of a thunderstorm using ground-based measurements

The amount of upward current provided to the ionosphere by a thunderstorm that appeared over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on July 11, 1978, is reexamined using an analytic equation that describes a bipolar thunderstorm's current contribution to the global circuit in terms of its generator current, lightning currents, the altitudes of its charge centers, and the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Ground-based measurements, which were obtained from a network of electric field mills positioned at various distances from the thunderstorm, were used to characterize the electrical activity inside the thundercloud. The location of the lightning discharges, the type of lightning, and the amount of charge neutralized during this thunderstorm were computed through a least squares inversion of the measured changes in the electric fields following each lightning discharge. These measurements provided the information necessary to implement the analytic equation, and consequently, a time-averaged estimate of this thunderstorm's current contribution to the global circuit was calculated. From these results the amount of conduction current supplied to the ionosphere by this small thunderstorm was computed to be less than 25% of the time-averaged generator current that flowed between the two vertically displaced charge centers.

Driscoll, Kevin T.

The Characteristics of Total Lightning Activity in Severe Florida Thunderstorms

Severe thunderstorms are defined by specific exceedance criteria regarding either wind speed (greater than or equal to 50 kts), hailstone diameter (greater than or equal to 3/4 inch), the occurrence of a tornado, or any combination thereof. Although traditional radar signatures of severe thunderstorms have been well documented, the characteristics of associated total lightning activity (both intracloud and cloud-to-ground) of severe thunderstorms remain poorly established. The reason for this are (1) less than 1% of all storms are actually severe, (2) intracloud lightning, which is typically the dominant form of electrical discharge within thunderstorms, is not routinely measured or recorded, (3) direct visual observations of intracloud lightning are obscured during the daytime, and (4) the migratory nature of many severe thunderstorms can make the accurate detection and mapping of intracloud lightning difficult when using fixed-location sensors. The recent establishment of LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Acquisition and Display - discussed in Goodman et al, this Meeting) has substantially addressed these limitations in east central Florida (ECFL). Analysis of total lightning flash Count histories using the LDAR (Lightning Detection And Ranging) system for known severe thunderstorms (currently irrespective of seasonal aspects and severe storm-type) has revealed flash rates exceeding 1 per second. This appears to be a necessary, but not sufficient,condition for most ECFL severe storm cases. The differences in radar-observed storm structure for high flash rate storms (to include both severe and non-severe categories) will be described together with the timing of peak flash rate vs. the timing of the severe weather manifestation. Comparisons with the satellite-bases OTD (Optical Transient Detector) overhead passes will also be presented when possible.

Williams, E.

Radio detection of thunderstorm activity with an earth-orbiting satellite

A study was made to determine the feasibility of using artificial earth satellites to monitor thunderstorm activity. The nighttime noise-temperature measurements made with the earth-oriented vee antenna of the Radio Astronomy Explorer (RAE 1) satellite in the frequency range 0.2-9.2 MHz were correlated with reported surface thunderstorm activity. Analysis shows that the minimum nighttime HF noise level (in the absence of surface thunderstorms) at an altitude of 5850 km over the United States is fixed by man-made noise. When thunderstorms are active below the satellite, the noise level is increased by about 6-12 dB. The highest level is associated with the most intense storms. It is concluded that thunderstorm regions can be detected by an orbiting satellite using HF radio techniques, but ionospheric effects must be taken into account.

Herman, J. R.

Severe thunderstorm internal structure from dual-Doppler radar measurements

Dual-Doppler radar data were analyzed for three different times during the life cycle of a severe thunderstorm. The thunderstorm developed a double vortex inside as a tornado was generated beneath the cloud. The organized kinematic and precipitation internal structure of the thunderstorm support a theoretical double-vortex thunderstorm model that was developed earlier. The horizontal perturbation and relative winds, vertical winds, horizontal divergence and vorticity are compared for the three different times of measurement. The measurements and theoretical model provide new explanations of the severe thunderstorm and the relationship of associated tornadoes.

Eagleman, J. R.

Medium-range, objective predictions of thunderstorm location and severity for aviation

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.

Wilson, G. S.

Observation and analysis of thunderstorm-generated gravity waves in the lower stratosphere

The relation between internal gravity waves and thunderstorms may be important in at least two respects. First, thunderstorm cells could be excited or initiated by propagating gravity waves in the troposphere. Second, thunderstorms may contribute to the energy of the atmospheric gravity wave field. Observations of gravity waves associated with thunderstorms are analyzed. The analysis will emphasize the difference of thunderstorm-generated gravity waves in the troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Lu, D.

A modeling study of the time-averaged electric currents in the vicinity of isolated thunderstorms

A thorough examination of the results of a time-dependent computer model of a dipole thunderstorm revealed that there are numerous similarities between the time-averaged electrical properties and the steady-state properties of an active thunderstorm. Thus, the electrical behavior of the atmosphere in the vicinity of a thunderstorm can be determined with a formulation similar to what was first described by Holzer and Saxon (1952). From the Maxwell continuity equation of electric current, a simple analytical equation was derived that expresses a thunderstorm's average current contribution to the global electric circuit in terms of the generator current within the thundercloud, the intracloud lightning current, the cloud-to-ground lightning current, the altitudes of the charge centers, and the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. This equation was found to be nearly as accurate as the more computationally expensive numerical model, even when it is applied to a thunderstorm with a reduced conductivity thundercloud, a time-varying generator current, a varying flash rate, and a changing lightning mix.

Driscoll, Kevin T.

Turbulence near thunderstorm tops

For several years, scientists at San Jose State University, NASA-Ames, and the University of Arizona have carried out cooperative research programs to understand the causes and effects of severe turbulence. The primary sources of data for this work are Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) tapes from airliners that have been involved in turbulence incidents. A significant result of the analysis of these data has been the identification and quantification of the turbulence causes. Turbulence signatures include breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz waves, large amplitude mountain lee waves, turbulence in and around thunderstorms, and maneuvering. The requirements that must be met for a turbulence incident to be included in the NASA study are rather straightforward: (1) severe or greater turbulence must have been reported (usually with passenger injuries) and (2) the flight data tapes must be available. Despite these rather general criteria, and the fact that our cases are drawn from a wide geographical area over the U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean, we have found an interesting bias in our sample. Of 12 cases at cruise altitude, four were definitely associated with thunderstorms and two are suspected thunderstorm cases. The others were due to mountain waves, CAT, high level windshear/maneuvering, or to causes not yet determined. Although our sample is small, these numbers have raised several questions, not the least of which are: How pervasive is the problem of aircraft encounters with severe turbulence in or near thunderstorm tops (TNTT)? Given the available visible and radar evidence of thunderstorms, Why do such incidents occur? Can anything be done to allevaite the problem? This paper outlines some very preliminary efforts to answer these questions. In the following sections, physical and statistical characteristics of TNTT are discussed (Section 2), TNTT causes are summarized (Section 3), current recommendations for TNTT avoidance are reviewed (Section 4), and some suggestions to ameliorate the problem are given (Section 5).

Lester, Peter F.

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.