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This paper examines the impact that solar cycle 24 storms are likely to have on both the threat model and on the consequent availability of the system, and it proposes a means of improving WAAS availability without sacrificing system integrity.
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The term Fusion Interface is defined as a class of interface which integrally incorporates both virtual and nonvirtual concepts and devices across the visual, auditory, and haptic sensory modalities. A fusion interface is a multisensory virtually-augmented synthetic environment. A new facility has been developed within the Human Engineering Division of the Armstrong Laboratory dedicated to exploratory development of fusion interface concepts. This new facility, the Fusion Interfaces for Tactical Environments (FITE) Facility is a specialized flight simulator enabling efficient concept development through rapid prototyping and direct experience of new fusion concepts. The FITE Facility also supports evaluation of fusion concepts by operation fighter pilots in an air combat environment. The facility is utilized by a multidisciplinary design team composed of human factors engineers, electronics engineers, computer scientists, experimental psychologists, and oeprational pilots. The FITE computational architecture is composed of twenty-five 80486-based microcomputers operating in real-time. The microcomputers generate out-the-window visuals, in-cockpit and head-mounted visuals, localized auditory presentations, haptic displays on the stick and rudder pedals, as well as executing weapons models, aerodynamic models, and threat models.
A method, system, apparatus, and computer program product provide the ability to analyze ionospheric slant total electron content (TEC) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-based estimation. Slant TEC is estimated for a given set of raypath geometries by fitting historical GNSS data to a specified delay model. The accuracy of the specified delay model is estimated by computing delay estimate residuals and plotting a behavior of the delay estimate residuals. An ionospheric threat model is computed based on the specified delay model. Ionospheric grid delays (IGDs) and grid ionospheric vertical errors (GIVEs) are computed based on the ionospheric threat model.
The United States’ Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) broadcasts data to facilitate aircraft navigation. This paper examines the spatial dependence of ionospheric disturbances that have threatened the accuracy and reliability of position estimates derived from these data over the period 2000 – 2019. We address two distinct aspects of this spatial dependence: (1) the geographic distribution of these threats, in particular, in relation to geomagnetic latitude, and (2) the geometric dependence of threats relative to the locations of the receiver sites that comprise the WAAS network. We analyze threat distributions in terms of the various means that WAAS employs to mitigate these threats, including the Extreme Storm Detector, the Moderate Storm Detector, local irregularity detectors, and the ionospheric threat model. Distinct distributions are presented for threats occurring in Solar Cycle 23 and those of Solar Cycle 24. To study the geometric dependence of threats on receiver locations, we use as a metric the distance separating a threat from the centroid of the nearest Ncentroid receivers. Large values of this metric identify threats at or beyond the edge of coverage. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results for WAAS operations.
This work documents the advancements in MSFC threat modeling and mitigation technology research completed since our last major publication in this field. Most of the work enclosed here are refinements of our work documented in NASA TP-2004-213089. Very long development times from start of funding (10-20 years) can be expected for any mitigation system which suggests that delaying consideration of mitigation technologies could leave the Earth in an unprotected state for a significant period of time. Fortunately there is the potential for strong synergy between architecture requirements for some threat mitigators and crewed deep space exploration. Thus planetary defense has the potential to be integrated into the current U.S. space exploration effort. The number of possible options available for protection against the NEO threat was too numerous for them to all be addressed within the study; instead, a representative selection were modeled and evaluated. A summary of the major lessons learned during this study is presented, as are recommendations for future work.
Physics governing ultrahigh velocity impacts onto dual-plate meteor armor is discussed. Meteoroid shield design methodologies are considered: failure mechanisms, qualitative features of effective meteoroid shield designs, evaluating/processing meteoroid threat models, and quantitative techniques for optimizing effective meteoroid shield designs. Related investigations are included: use of Kevlar cloth/epoxy panels in meteoroid shields for the Halley's Comet intercept vehicle, mirror exposure dynamics, and evaluation of ion fields produced around the Halley Intercept Mission vehicle by meteoroid impacts.
This paper examines the dependence of the threat model upon the spatial distribution of GPS measurements.
The application of simulation technology to mission planning and rehearsal has enabled realistic overhead 2-D and immersive 3-D "fly-through" capabilities that can help better prepare tactical teams for conducting missions in unfamiliar locales. For aircrews, detailed terrain data can offer a preview of the relevant landmarks and hazards, and threat models can provide a comprehensive glimpse of potential hot zones and safety corridors. A further extension of the utility of such planning and rehearsal techniques would allow users to perform the radio communications planned for a mission; that is, the air-ground coordination that is critical to the success of missions such as close air support (CAS). Such practice opportunities, while valuable, are limited by the inescapable scarcity of complete mission teams to gather in space and time during planning and rehearsal cycles. Moreoever, using simulated comms with synthetic entities, despite the substantial training and cost benefits, remains an elusive objective. In this paper we report on a solution to this gap that incorporates "synthetic teammates" - intelligent software agents that can role-play entities in a mission scenario and that can communicate in spoken language with users. We employ a fielded mission planning and rehearsal tool so that our focus remains on the experimental objectives of the research rather than on developing a testbed from scratch. Use of this planning tool also helps to validate the approach in an operational system. The result is a demonstration of a mission rehearsal tool that allows aircrew users to not only fly the mission but also practice the verbal communications with air control agencies and tactical controllers on the ground. This work will be presented in a CAS mission planning example but has broad applicability across weapons systems, missions and tactical force compositions.
Why is monitoring extreme weather events important? The HKH (Hindu Kush Himalaya region experiences many extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms, especially during monsoon season. These events can cause economic hardship and loss of life. Monitoring Extreme Weather in the HKH Region is a service in development through SERVIR-Hindu Kush Himalaya that aims to develop a customized numerical weather prediction toolkit to assess these high impact events in this relatively data-sparse region. The High Impact Weather Assessment Toolkit (HIWAT) consists of an ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)model, threat assessments based on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) missions, and impact assessments based on Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. In spring 2019, we began validation of forecasted precipitation using station data in Bangladesh and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed with Station data (CHIRPS).
System security engineering (SSE) is a set of formal engineering methods and is considered a subset of systems engineering. It is a relatively new development in systems engineering with the initial NIST (National Institute of Standards) standard published in November of 2016 with updates in 2018, and 2022. The guiding principles in our methodology are based in NIST Special Publication 800-160 Vol. 1 “Systems Security Engineering: Considerations For A Multidisciplinary Approach In The Engineering Of Trustworthy Secure Systems” and integrate methodologies from common IT (Information Technology) threat modeling approaches utilizing MBSE (Model-Based Systems Engineering). The presentation will discuss how our teams utilize SSE and MBSE (Model-Based Systems Engineering) to develop secure architectures for systems under development in our NASA aeronautics research environment. This includes the activities to develop Protection Needs (PN) that, in turn result in security requirements in the design context and policies for the future state operational context for system protection. The process of applying SSE to analyze project architectures and ConOps (Concept of Operations) is intended to ensure the transferred research is both secure and securable in a “real-world” setting.
This paper explores the development of a cybersecurity architecture tailored for Extensible Traffic Management (xTM) to address emerging challenges in managing diverse aerial vehicles within the National Airspace System (NAS). Driven by technological advances and the rise of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), urban air mobility (UAM), and high-altitude traffic (ETM), the NAS is undergoing a paradigm shift. Traditional air traffic management, reliant on traditional Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) control, will give way to decentralized coordination among autonomous and semi-autonomous systems. The proposed xTM Security Architecture, designed as a high-level framework, focuses on ensuring the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of data and operations in this evolving ecosystem. Utilizing threat modeling, the research identifies potential risks across key flight phases, operations and use cases to offer security control recommendations. Key objectives include analyzing interactions between novel airspace entrants and existing NAS traffic, cataloging vulnerabilities, and developing mitigative strategies to ensure safety, operational stability, and secure data exchanges. This research lays the groundwork for regulatory and industry adaptation, providing critical insights into managing cybersecurity risks in this complex, multi-domain environment.
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
This document presents a high-level overview of the threats to safety-relevant computer-based systems, including (1) a description of the introduction and activation of physical and logical faults; (2) the propagation of their effects; and (3) function-level and component-level error and failure mode models. These models can be used in the definition of fault hypotheses (i.e., assumptions) for threat-risk mitigation strategies. This document is a contribution to a guide currently under development that is intended to provide a general technical foundation for designers and evaluators of safety-relevant systems.
Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.
The NASA F-106 has acquired considerable data on the rates-of-change of electromagnetic parameters on the aircraft surface during 690 direct lightning strikes while penetrating thunderstorms at altitudes ranging from 15,000 to 40,000 feet. These in-situ measurements have provided the basis for the first statistical quantification of the lightning electromagnetic threat to aircrat appropriate for determining lightning indirect effects on aircraft. The data are presently being used in updating previous lightning criteria and standards developed over the years from ground-based measurements. The new lightning standards will, therefore, be the first which reflect actual aircraft responses measured at flight altitudes. The modeling technique developed to interpret and understand the direct strike electromagnetic data acquired on the F-106 provides a means to model the interaction of the lightning channel with the F-106. The reasonable results obtained with the model, compared to measured responses, yield confidence that the model may be credibly applied to other aircraft types and uses in the prediction of internal coupling effects in the design of lightning protection for new aircraft.
Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.