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At least 19 records

A Bayesian View on the Dr. Evil Scenario

Abstract In Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief , Adam Elga proposes and defends a principle of indifference for self-locating beliefs: if an individual is confident that his world contains more than one individual who is in a state subjectively indistinguishable from his own, then he should assign equal credences to the hypotheses that he is any one of these individuals. Through a sequence of thought experiments, Elga in effect claims that he can derive the credence function that should apply in such situations, thus justifying his principle of indifference. Here we argue, using a Bayesian approach, that Elga’s reasoning is circular: in analyzing the third of his thought experiments, he uses an assertion that is justifiable only if one assumes, from the start, the principle of indifference that he is attempting to justify. We agree with Elga that the assumption of equal credences is a very reasonable principle, in the absence of any reason to assign unequal credences, but we do not agree that the equality of credences can be so derived.

Azhar, Feraz↗

New Empirical Formulation for the Sublimational Breakup of Graupel and Dendritic Snow

Abstract Ice fragments are generated by sublimation of ice particles in subsaturated conditions in natural clouds. Conceivably, such sublimational breakup would be expected to cause ice multiplication in natural clouds. Any fragment that survives will grow to become ice precipitation that may sublimate and fragment further. As a first step toward assessing this overlooked process, a formulation is proposed for the number of ice fragments from sublimation of ice particles for an atmospheric model. This is done by amalgamating laboratory observations from previously published studies. The concept of a “sublimated mass activity spectrum” for the breakup is applied to the dataset. The number of ice fragments is determined by the relative humidity over ice and the initial size of the parent ice particles. The new formulation applies to dendritic crystals and heavily rimed particles only. Finally, a thought experiment is performed for an idealized scenario of subsaturation with in-cloud descent. Scaling analysis yields an estimate of an ice enhancement ratio of about 5 (10) within a weak deep convective downdraft of about 2 m s −1 , for an initial monodisperse population of dendritic snow (graupel) particles of 3 L −1 and 2 mm. During descent, there is a dynamic equilibrium between continual emission of fragments and their depletion by sublimation. A simplified bin microphysics parcel model exhibits this dynamical quasi equilibrium, consistent with the thought experiment. The fragments have average lifetimes of around 90 and 70 s for dendrites and graupel, respectively. Sublimational breakup is predicted to cause significant secondary ice production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Isotopic Limit of Recycling

Despite advances in recycling technologies and practices, the world still mostly operates on a once-through materials use cycle. The once-through approach to the materials supply chain cannot work into perpetuity. The vast majority of current recycling efforts focus on mechanical or chemical separation-based techniques and are often subsequently limited on the number of times a component can be recycled or upcycled. By looking at things from a particle physics and nuclear history perspective, we propose a thought experiment to determine the physical limit of recycling and propose subsequent limits and standards to evaluate all recycling efforts. This uncommon approach to analysis demonstrates that the current limits to recycling are not physical in nature but engineering.

Lang, Eric↗

Rapid Generation of a Macroscopic Schrödinger Cat State of Atoms with Parity-Independent Orientation

We show that using the process of one-axis-twist squeezing in an echo configuration, it is possible to control the orientation of the macroscopic magnetic moment of a large number of atoms by manipulating the quantum state of a single atom that is physically isolated from the ensemble. With this control technique, it is also possible to entangle an ensemble with a single atom deterministically, which mimics the thought experiment known as the Schrödinger cat. In addition, this technique would make it possible to generate a mesoscopic Schrödinger cat state for a large number of atoms far more rapidly that the conventional process for generating such a state, with an orientation that is independent of the parity of the number of atoms. Apart from the echo configuration, we have also investigated the behavior of one-axis-twist squeezing for some special values of the squeezing parameter. We find that the squeezing propagator can be expressed as the sum of n rotation operators if the product of n and the squeezing parameter equals pi, where n is a non-zero integer. A direct consequence of this property of one-axis-twist squeezing is that there is a hidden order in a squeezed state generated under this condition even if its Husimi quasi-probability distribution looks irregular.

Li, Jinyang↗

Expanding the Baseline: Community Perspectives on Equity in Land-Based Wind Energy Development and Operations

This report covers the fourth and final phase of the Wind Energy Equity Engagement Series (WEEES), a series of community listening sessions on the topic of wind energy equity. In the summer and fall of 2023, a research team at NREL partnered with community-based organizations in three different cities across the U.S. to co-design and co-host the listening sessions. These gatherings were an opportunity for community members to share their past experiences with wind energy development and envision what an equitable wind energy future could look like where they live. The NREL team qualitatively analyzed notes taken during the listening sessions to build an understanding of participants' thoughts and experiences regarding wind energy equity. The team organized the analysis according to key themes that emerged during the first three phases of WEEES, each of which has three or four relevant subthemes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Transfer learning driven design optimization for inertial confinement fusion

Transfer learning is a promising approach to create predictive models that incorporate simulation and experimental data into a common framework. In this technique, a neural network is first trained on a large database of simulations and then partially retrained on sparse sets of experimental data to adjust predictions to be more consistent with reality. Previously, this technique has been used to create predictive models of Omega [Humbird et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 61–70 (2019)] and NIF [Humbird et al., Phys. Plasmas 28, 042709 (2021); Kustowski et al., Mach. Learn. 3, 015035 (2022)] inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments that are more accurate than simulations alone. Here, in this work, we conduct a transfer learning driven hypothetical ICF campaign in which the goal is to maximize experimental neutron yield via Bayesian optimization. The transfer learning model achieves yields within 5% of the maximum achievable yield in a modest-sized design space in fewer than 20 experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this method is more efficient at optimizing designs than traditional model calibration techniques commonly employed in ICF design. Such an approach to ICF design could enable robust optimization of experimental performance under uncertainty.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDO) for Co-Designed Transmission & Distribution Electric Grid Planning

This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Gravitational wave detection with plasma haloscopes

Searches for high frequency gravitational waves using cavities based on the Gertsenshtein effect were recently proposed, building off existing axion dark matter experiments. In particular, the sensitivity of axion dark matter experiments using metamaterial plasmas (tunable plasma haloscopes) to gravitational waves has not been explored in detail. Here we perform a full analysis of gravitational wave detection in plasma haloscopes, showing that the baseline design of experiments such as ALPHA is several orders of magnitude less sensitive than previously thought. We show how simple changes to the experiment can recover that sensitivity and lead to a powerful gravitational wave detector in the 𝒪⁡(10–50) GHz frequency range.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Future TRISO fuel irradiations in the Advanced Test Reactor

AGR-5/6/7 was thought to be the last experiment in the AGR series and the last experiment directly sponsored by DOE. Over the last five years three developments have caused a reevaluation of that assumption. First is that interest in TRISO fueled reactors has spiked dramatically. Virtually all of the new reactor designs are for SMRs or micro-reactors . Some of these reactors use new fuel designs with higher concentrations of U235. This results in changes to the particle design and even fuel pellet design. Second, a design flaw in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 1 produced a large number of particle failures which resulted in the loss of data from Capsule 1. An additional irradiation could fill in this lost data set. Thirdly, many reactor developers have decided to use AGR spec fuel but different irradiation goals have been identified.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Women in Nuclear Security: The United Arab Emirates Story

Historically in the United Arab Emirates, security personnel stationed at nuclear sites were typically men with military or policing backgrounds. Although these groups bring important, transferrable skills and experience to the nuclear security mission, some Emirati stakeholders recognize the increased benefit of a greater diversity of voices and backgrounds within the nuclear security team hierarchy. By recruiting from a wider range of disciplines and encouraging gender diversity, the security team could develop broader insight into security challenges, and a greater variety of perspectives could bring forth more innovative solutions. When aligning a diverse, multinational workforce with a common mission, all members of a security organization must fundamentally change their individual approaches to the work; the entire staff must be on the same page. This can be particularly challenging for some people who find it difficult to transition from a framework of beliefs because of past experiences based on prescriptive, exclusionary, hierarchical thought. Also, national cultural values are learned early, held deeply, and change slowly over the course of generations, and inherent biases rooted in these values can create barriers to the collective progress of a team. Creating a more open, diverse, and transparent culture for the team by accepting a unique, egalitarian, professional nuclear security culture that all members adhere to can be a challenging task for some. In this article, I share my experiences related to professional roadblocks, personal challenges, and lessons learned, particularly those regarding the empowerment of women in science and engineering, while developing and establishing the United Arab Emirates nuclear security program. I also discuss the support (and underrepresentation) of women, including those currently in critical leadership positions, and their careers in nuclear security.

Barakah Nuclear Power Plant↗

Structural study of hcp and liquid iron under shock compression up to 275 GPa

Here we combine nanosecond laser shock compression with in situ picosecond x-ray diffraction to provide structural data on iron up to 275 GPa. We constrain the extent of hcp-liquid coexistence, the onset of total melt, and the structure within the liquid phase. Our results indicate that iron, under shock compression, melts completely by 258(8) GPa. A coordination number analysis indicates that iron is a simple liquid at these pressure-temperature conditions. We also perform texture analysis between the ambient body-centered-cubic (bcc) α, and the hexagonal-closed-packed (hcp) high-pressure ε-phase. We rule out the Rong-Dunlop orientation relationship (OR) between the α and ε - phase s. However, we cannot distinguish between three other closely related ORs: Burger's, Mao-Bassett-Takahashi, and Potter's OR. The solid-liquid coexistence region is constrained from a melt onset pressure of 225(3) GPa from previously published sound speed measurements and full melt [246.5(1.8)–258(8) GPa] from x-ray diffraction measurements, with an associated maximum latent heat of melting of 623 J/g. This value is lower than recently reported theoretical estimates and suggests that the contribution to the earth's geodynamo energy budget from heat release due to freezing of the inner core is smaller than previously thought. Melt pressures for these nanosecond shock experiments are consistent with gas gun shock experiments that last for microseconds, indicating that the melt transition occurs rapidly.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

L'Arlesienne de ROOT

Over many years, ROOT users have repeatedly stumbled over—and loudly rediscovered—the infamous 1 GB limit on individual I/O operations, a constraint that somehow survived long past the era when anyone thought a gigabyte was “a lot.” As experiments embraced ever-larger objects and collections, this limit became an increasingly unavoidable rite of passage. This contribution recounts the sustained, multi-year quest by ROOT I/O developers to finally retire this relic, navigating a maze of legacy APIs, memory-management assumptions, and integer boundaries that seemed determined to preserve the status quo. We describe how internal interfaces were carefully modernized to introduce fully 64-bit–capable code paths without breaking the mountains of existing user code that would definitely have noticed. With the limit now lifted, ROOT can finally handle multi-gigabyte objects in a single read or write operation, even when splitting them into an RNTuple is not an option (we’re looking at you, large RooWorkspaces and giant histograms), liberating users from yet another “fun” debugging adventure and clearing the way for the massive analyses of the HL-LHC and beyond.

Canal, Philippe G. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000277487↗

L'Arlesienne de ROOT

Over many years, ROOT users have repeatedly stumbled over—and loudly rediscovered—the infamous 1 GB limit on individual I/O operations, a constraint that somehow survived long past the era when anyone thought a gigabyte was “a lot.” As experiments embraced ever-larger objects and collections, this limit became an increasingly unavoidable rite of passage. This contribution recounts the sustained, multi-year quest by ROOT I/O developers to finally retire this relic, navigating a maze of legacy APIs, memory-management assumptions, and integer boundaries that seemed determined to preserve the status quo. We describe how internal interfaces were carefully modernized to introduce fully 64-bit–capable code paths without breaking the mountains of existing user code that would definitely have noticed. With the limit now lifted, ROOT can finally handle multi-gigabyte objects in a single read or write operation, even when splitting them into an RNTuple is not an option (we’re looking at you, large RooWorkspaces and giant histograms), liberating users from yet another “fun” debugging adventure and clearing the way for the massive analyses of the HL-LHC and beyond.

Canal, Philippe G. [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000277487↗

Seal Strength Calculations for Low Mass DDT Vessel

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is collaborating with Colorado School of Mines (Mines), to field the first dynamic experiments on the 3-ring flash radiography system (3-ring). One set of experiments for 3-ring concerns the deflagration to detonation transition (DDT), within a sealed column of high-explosives. The high-explosive material is ignited at one end with a BK-80, an igniter made from Boron Potassium-Nitrate (BKNO 3 ). The initial deflagration reaction will increase the pressure in the sealed vessel, resulting in the formation of a dense "plug" of material ahead of the deflagration front. The transition to detonation is thought to be related to the plug formation. Previous experiments have been able to resolve the plug geometry, but only in a two dimensional radio-graph. 3-ring offers a novel diagnostic tool which could provide three dimensional density fields via few-view reconstruction algorithms and computed tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Organosulfur Aerosols Likely Carried Sulfur MIF Signatures in the Early Earth’s Atmosphere

Signatures of mass-independent fractionation (MIF) of sulfur in Archean sulfide and sulfate minerals are widely thought to record an anoxic early Earth’s atmosphere. While experiments of ultraviolet irradiation of SO 2 produce significant sulfur mass-independent fractionation (S-MIF) in reaction products (elemental sulfur and residual sulfur dioxide), they have not been able to reproduce the isotope patterns, in particular Δ 36 S/Δ 33 S ratios, observed in the geologic rock record. Studies that focused on organic sulfur gases and hazes in Archean did not report organosulfur aerosol photoproducts as major contributors to Archean S-MIF chemistry. Here we show, for the first time, that photochemical reactions of SO 2 in the presence of gaseous hydrocarbons (CH 4 , C 2 H 2 , and C 2 H 4 ) produce haze-like organosulfur aerosols bearing S-MIF with variable Δ 36 S/Δ 33 S ratios. The isotope trends for the organosulfur photoproducts produced in our experiments suggest that in addition to elemental sulfur, organosulfur compounds—in particular methanesulfonic acid—are a key component of S-MIF signals from the atmosphere to the ocean and sediments with possible links to Archean atmosphere warmed by a methane greenhouse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping Dark Matter on Small Scales with the Cosmic Microwave Background (Final Report)

Sehgal was funded by DOE Grant DE-SC0020441 over the period from 11/1/2019 - 04/30/2024 (no remaining funds are anticipated). Most recently, Sehgal and her group completed a publication forecasting cosmological parameter constraints for a CMB-HD survey, in addition to SO and CMB-S4 (1). One focus of this work was determining the improvement in parameter constraints when removing the gravitational lensing effect from the primordial CMB (a process called delensing). This work also explored the bias to parameters from neglecting baryonic effects, and ways to mitigate that. In addition, this work highlighted that a CMB-HD N eff measurement could tightly constrain the QCD axion in a modelindependent way (see left panel of Figure 1). Sehgal also developed a novel way to probe inflation via CMB experiments by measuring inflationary magnetic fields (IMFs) (2). IMFs are thought to seed the large magnetic fields we observe in galaxies today, and can be measured by looking for anisotropic rotation of the CMB polarization vectors across the sky (an effect called cosmic birefringence). The cosmic birefringence from IMFs has a unique frequency dependence, allowing it to be separated from other sources of cosmic birefringence. In (2), Sehgal and her postdoc also presented a novel way to remove foreground contamination from Galactic magnetic fields using measurements of the polarization of nearby radio sources. The removal of this Galactic contamination is necessary when measuring IMFs at the level of 0.1 nG; IMFs with a strength of at least 0.1 nG are needed to seed the magnetic fields in galaxies we observe today. Since only inflation can generate such a strong magnetic field, measuring such a signal would be a “smoking gun” signature that inflation occurred. Sehgal showed in (2) that CMB-HD could detect such IMFs with at least 3σ significance (see right panel of Figure 1).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering Spectroscopy of Laser Irradiated Carbon

The existence of liquid carbon as an intermediate phase preceding the formation of novel carbon materials has been a point of contention for several decades. Experimental observation of such a liquid state requires nonthermal melting of solid carbon materials at various laser fluences and pulse properties. Reflectivity experiments performed in the mid-1980s reached opposing conclusions regarding the metallic or insulating properties of the purported liquid state. Time-resolved X-ray absorption studies showed shortening of C–C bonds and increasing diffraction densities, thought to evidence a liquid or glassy carbon state, respectively. Nevertheless, none of these experiments provided information on the electronic structure of the proposed liquid state. Herein, we report the results of time-resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) and time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) studies on amorphous carbon (a-C) and ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD) as a function of delay time between the irradiating pulse and X-ray probe. For both a-C and UNCD, we attribute decreases in RIXS or XES signals to transition blocking, relaxation, and finally, ablation. Increased signal at 20 ps following the irradiation of the UNCD is attributed to the probable formation of nanoscale structures in the ablation plume. Further, differences in the amount of signal observed between a-C and UNCD are explained by the difference in sample thickness and, specifically, incomplete melting of the UNCD film. Comparisons to spectral simulations based on MD trajectories at extreme conditions indicate that the carbon state in our experiments is crystalline. Normal mode analysis confirmed that symmetrical bending or stretching of the C–C bonds in the diamond lattice results in XES spectra with small intensity differences. Overall, we observed no evidence of melting to a liquid state, as determined by the lack of changes in the spectral properties for up to 100 ps delays following the melting pulses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗