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Revisiting the Terawatt Challenge

Richard E. Smalley, in 2003, defined the Terawatt (TW) Challenge as “Adapting our energy infrastructure to simultaneously address diminishing oil resources and rising levels of atmospheric CO 2 .” Smalley, best known for the discovery of C 60 , for which he received the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, continued to address the challenges of anthropomorphic and natural global energy flows until he passed away in 2005. Smalley challenged the world to transform the energy sector. He envisioned electricity transmitted by high-voltage direct current (DC) lines from massively deployed solar plants in sunny areas and remotely sited nuclear plants. He also envisioned using advanced batteries for local storage of energy. To meet the needs of ~10 people in a world with a dwindling oil supply, Smalley asserted that the world would need to transform its fossil-fuel-driven 14-TW (average power) energy used in 2003 to a largely renewable-energy-driven 30–60 TW (average power) in 2050. This would be possible only if solar-electricity costs could be drastically reduced. The challenges associated with this transition have been called the “Terawatt Challenge.” Fifteen years later, solar-module costs have been reduced by tenfold and annual deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules has grown by a factor of 100,from ~1 gigawatt (GW) in 2004 to ~100 GW in 2018, with a total of 500 GW installed worldwide, producing 2% of the planet’s electricity. As global installed solar generating capacity approaches1 TW, we revisit Smalley’s TW challenge to identify what has changed and quantify the TW Challenge for a baseline scenario and for two scenarios designed as upper and lower bounds determined by the degree we implement electrification and storage. In this paper, we show that the energy choices we make today will dramatically affect the magnitude of future global energy requirements.

SOLAR ENERGY↗

Perspective on Solar Energy Materials, Design and Discovery, Defects, Disorder, and Interfaces

The energy transition still faces a daunting math. Currently, more than three quarters of final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels vs less than one quarter in electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, meeting the terawatt challenge requires enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies, for example via solar thermochemical routes. In this presentation, we will review successes and challenges in photovoltaic materials from silicon to CdTe to halide perovskites and potential emerging materials, with a particular perspective on the role of first principles calculations and predictions. Materials design and discovery is evolving to incorporate defects, disorder, and interfaces. These phenomena play also an important role in the thermochemical generation of hydrogen, allowing to utilize synergies between renewable electricity and fuels in computational research. At the same time, machine learning approaches are increasingly geared toward properties of non-ideal materials, for example defect formation, allowing the screening for more complex material behavior as needed for the respective applications.

fuels↗

Editorial: Advanced water splitting technologies development: Best practices and protocols

As the level of deployment and utilization of renewable energy sources, including wind and solar, continues to rise, large-scale, long-term energy storage technologies that could accommodate weekly and seasonal energy fluctuations will play a significant role in the overall deployment of renewable energies in the future. Harnessing and storing renewable energy resources via electrochemical, photoelectrochemical, or thermochemical processes by converting renewable energy into sustainable (energy storage) fuels have the potential to meet the long-term, terawatt scale energy storage challenge. Renewable hydrogen production is the cornerstone for sustainable fuel production and deep decarbonization of multiple sectors in our society. Cost-competitive clean hydrogen provides value to applications, such as 1) in the transportation sector for fuel cell vehicles, 2) in the electric grid sector for system stability and load balancing, and 3) in the industrial sector with metal refineries, cement production, and biomass upgrading (carbon-free fertilizer production). In addition, coupling clean renewable hydrogen with the carbon and nitrogen cycles enables known and well-established thermal-chemical processes to generate renewable hydrocarbon fuels and ammonia. The Advanced Water Splitting Technologies (AWST): low temperature electrolysis (LTE), high temperature electrolysis (HTE), photoelectrochemical (PEC) and solar thermo-chemical hydrogen (STCH) provide four unique and parallel approaches to produce low cost, low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission hydrogen at scale (Figure 1). Cost competitive clean hydrogen production using these four technologies is a current high priority focus for governments and industry. In June of 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) launched the first in a series of Earthshot Initiatives. The Hydrogen Shot, “1 1 1” aims to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by more than 80% to one dollar per one kilogram in 1 decade ($\$$1/kg H 2 ). The European Green Deal and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have implemented a strong focus on green hydrogen production for a clean and secure energy future.

benchmarking, low temperature electrolysis↗

The 2020 photovoltaic technologies roadmap

Over the past decade, the global cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) capacity has grown exponentially, reaching 591 GW in 2019. Rapid progress was driven in large part by improvements in solar cell and module efficiencies, reduction in manufacturing costs and the realization of levelized costs of electricity that are now generally less than other energy sources and approaching similar costs with storage included. Given this success, it is a particularly fitting time to assess the state of the photovoltaics field and the technology milestones that must be achieved to maximize future impact and forward momentum. This roadmap outlines the critical areas of development in all of the major PV conversion technologies, advances needed to enable terawatt-scale PV installation, and cross-cutting topics on reliability, characterization, and applications. Each perspective provides a status update, summarizes the limiting immediate and long-term technical challenges and highlights breakthroughs that are needed to address them. In total, this roadmap is intended to guide researchers, funding agencies and industry in identifying the areas of development that will have the most impact on PV technology in the upcoming years.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Surface structure of water from soft X-ray second harmonic generation

The microscopic structure of water’s surface is crucial to many natural and industrial processes, but studying its hydrogen bond (H-bond) network directly remains challenging due to the required interfacial sensitivity of experimental techniques. By leveraging advances in flat liquid sheet microjets and terawatt-scale attosecond soft X-ray pulses from the LCLS X-ray free electron laser, we employed soft X-ray second harmonic generation (SXSHG) spectroscopy to examine the liquid water/vapor interface. SXSHG combines the elemental selectivity of X-ray spectroscopies with the surface selectivity of SHG and gives access to the electronic structure of interfacial species. Here, we show the SXSHG spectrum differs from bulk water’s X-ray absorption, with its peak shifted several eV, indicating a vastly different electronic environment at the interface as compared to the bulk. First-principles electronic structure calculations show the signal is highly sensitive to H-bond interactions, such as water molecules accepting a single H-bond, which are surface abundant.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic Earth Energy Storage: Terawatt-year, Grid-scale Energy Storage Using Planet Earth as a Thermal Battery (GeoTES): Phase I Project (Final Report)

Grid-scale energy storage has been identified by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Storage Grand Challenge as a necessary technology to support the continued build-out of intermittent renewable energy resources required to attain a carbon-free energy future. To meet this goal, the 2018 Department of Energy Research and Innovation Act mandated the creation of a comprehensive program to accelerate the development and commercialization of next-generation energy storage technologies. One of numerous energy storage technology options is the storage of excess energy as heated geothermal brine in suitable geologic formations. This concept, known as reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES), aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES), etc., relies on the storage of thermal energy in geologic formations for recovery and use in large-scale direct use geothermal (e.g., district heating, industrial processes, etc.) and electrical power generation applications. This thermal energy is derived from excess or waste heat from any high-temperature heat source, such as concentrated solar or from conventional thermal/nuclear generation. As such, RTES can potentially play a significant role in meeting the energy storage shortfall in the coming decades. RTES can provide energy arbitrage through both the storage and production of thermal energy stored in geologic formations for direct use applications and can serve as a source of hot fluids that can be used to generate electricity to support peak demand ramping, thus easing stress on transmission and distribution. This energy storage option has geographic benefits in that energy can be stored locally or regionally depending on the various needs/loads. RTES can also be located across an enormous geographic area, without the need for a traditional hydrothermal resource but where thermal gradients and hydrogeology allow economic exploitation of subsurface heat. The work conducted for this project includes (1) a review of lessons learned from past high-temperature RTES international projects; (2) geochemical experimental investigation and numerical simulations of potential domestic sedimentary reservoirs and (3) development of a thermo-hydrological-mechanical (THM) numerical simulation tool for optimizing formation properties and design parameters to maximize thermal energy storage performance.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Chapter 1.18 - The Promise of Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) based on a new class of semiconductors - organic and inorganic hybrid halide perovskites - have emerged as a disruptive photovoltaic (PV) technology that is potentially cost-effective, scalable, and highly efficient, with an expectation for future deployment at terawatt scale. This new PV technology has drawn significant R&D attention from academics and industries as an alternate to compete with traditional PV technologies to help mitigate challenges associated with global energy demand. The synthesis of the hybrid halide perovskites was reported in the 1970s. The structural knowledge, solution processing and optoelectronic characteristics of this hybrid material family were further studied in the 1990s. It is until 2009-2012 when the use of methylammonium lead triiodide (MAPbI3) was first demonstrated in PV cells worldwide researchers have started to show a general interest in using hybrid halide perovskites for PV and other optoelectronic applications.

perovskite↗

In situ formed partially disordered phases as earth-abundant Mn-rich cathode materials

Abstract Earth-abundant cathode materials are urgently needed to enable scaling of the Li-ion industry to multiply terawatt hours of annual production, necessitating reconsideration of how good cathode materials can be obtained. Irreversible transition metal migration and phase transformations in Li-ion cathodes are typically believed to be detrimental because they may trigger voltage hysteresis, poor kinetics and capacity degradation. Here we challenge this conventional consensus by reporting an unusual phase transformation from disordered Li- and Mn-rich rock salts to a new phase (named δ ), which displays partial spinel-like ordering with short coherence length and exhibits high energy density and rate capability. Unlike other Mn-based cathodes, the δ phase exhibits almost no voltage fade upon cycling. We identify the driving force and kinetics of this in situ cathode formation and establish design guidelines for Li- and Mn-rich compositions that combine high energy density, high rate capability and good cyclability, thereby enabling Mn-based energy storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Historical and Future Learning for the New Era of Multi-Terawatt Photovoltaics

Solar photovoltaics (PV) is entering a new era of multi-terawatt deployment, with 2 TW already in service and more than 75 TW predicted in many scenarios by 2050. This next era has been enabled by over five decades of cumulative advances in PV module cost reduction, performance and reliability. The current scale of deployment also introduces new needs, opportunities and challenges. In this Perspective we frame a path forwards based on learning, broadly defined as a combination of expansion of knowledge and advances through research and development, experience and collaboration. We discuss historical topics where learning has driven PV deployment until now, and emerging areas that are required to sustain high levels of future deployment. We expect progress to continue in terms of module price, performance and reliability, driven by advances in PV cell and module design, the emergence of tandem devices and increased focus on extending module lifetimes. Large-scale deployment also means large-scale sustainability and responsibility. We therefore posit that additional metrics, such as the impact on global CO2 emissions, resource consumption and design for reuse and recycling, will become increasingly important to the PV industry and provide opportunities for further learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Pointing stabilization of a 1 Hz high-power laser via machine learning

Abstract High-power lasers are vital for particle acceleration, imaging, fusion and materials processing, requiring precise control and high-energy delivery. Laser plasma accelerators (LPAs) demand laser positional stability at focus to ensure consistent electron beams in applications such as X-ray free-electron lasers and high-energy colliders. Achieving this stability is especially challenging for the low-repetition-rate lasers in current LPAs. We present a machine learning method that predicts and corrects laser pointing instabilities in real-time using a high-frequency pilot beam. By preemptively adjusting a correction mirror, this approach overcomes traditional feedback limits. Demonstrated on the BELLA petawatt laser operating at the terawatt level (30 mJ amplification), our method achieved root mean square pointing stabilization of 0.34 and 0.59 $\unicode{x3bc} \mathrm{rad}$ in the x and y directions, reducing jitter by 65% and 47%, respectively. This is the first successful application of predictive control for shot-to-shot stabilization in low-repetition-rate laser systems, paving the way for full-energy petawatt lasers and transformative advances across science, industry and security.

Amodio, Alessio↗

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

Photovoltaics module reliability for the terawatt age

Photovoltaics (PV), or solar electricity generation, has become the cheapest form of energy in many locations worldwide and, combined with energy storage, has the potential to satisfy most of our electricity needs. PV has grown at an annual compounded growth rate of approximately 30% in the last three decades. Solar energy systems will continue their impressive growth in distributed energy, microgrids, and utility scale, as efforts are made for dependable electricity in an age with increasing extreme weather. However, within this remarkable success lies a new challenge. The growth curve, combined with rapid product innovation and scale up, means that the majority of PV systems are new, without the three years of performance data that have been required in the past to estimate product lifetime. PV reliability has to address this challenge. In this review we present a brief summary of PV reliability starting with brief historical synopsis, detailing some of the technological challenges and present a framework required for long lifetime.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

High-Fidelity and High-Performance Computational Simulations for Rapid Design Optimization of Sulfur Thermal Energy Storage (CRADA Report)

NREL and Element 16 collaborated on sulfur thermal energy storage modeling using NREL’s high performance computing (HPC) resources to assist its application in industrial processes. Industrial process heat (IPH) accounts for ~70% of US manufacturing energy use and is primarily produced by fossil fuel combustion. Approximately, 1500 TWht (~60% Terawatt hour thermal) of IPH demand is in the temperature range of 100-300°C. Industrial applications in this temperature range include drying, hydrothermal processing, thermal enhanced oil recovery, food and beverage, bioethanol production, etc. Cost-effective thermal energy storage (TES) that increases the utilization of waste and renewable heat (solar, geothermal, etc.) could provide significant energy savings and reliable heat sources, decrease emissions, and increase US manufacturing competitiveness through reductions in fuel consumption. This HPC4EI project facilitated Element 16’s development of low-cost and high-impact molten sulfur TES for dispatchable IPH. The development of a high-fidelity model validated by experimental data and HPC simulations enabled the successful resolution of the complex interplay between fluid dynamics and heat transfer processes during transient operation of sulfur TES, overcoming the numerical challenges posed by the non-linear temperature-dependent physical properties of sulfur. The project helped accelerate Element 16’s molten sulfur TES product design and support its broad applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Metal Halide Perovskites in Quantum Dot Solar Cells: Progress and Prospects

“Go big or go home” could never be a truer statement, especially when it comes to energy. The world population is increasing, the energy use per person is growing more rapidly, and the total electricity use per person is growing even more quickly than that. To handle this demand, energy production must be increased, and it is vital for renewable sources to be used. Currently three quarters of a terawatt of power generated from photovoltaics (PVs) has been installed. At a somewhat optimistic average power-conversion efficiency of 18%, the distributed surface area of high purity optoelectronic grade semiconductor photovoltaic panels pointed at the sun is substantially larger than the area of the whole state of Rhode Island or nearly double the land mass of Luxembourg. While photovoltaic production continues to ramp to immense proportions, perovskite semiconductors are poised to greatly complement existing technology. On the other end of the size spectrum, the study of semiconductor nanocrystals or quantum dots (QDs) has led to advanced structures and deeper understanding within halide perovskite semiconductors. In this article, we show how the development of nanoscale metal halide perovskite semiconductors have gained prominence surpassing all other QD materials in terms of efficiency, and are becoming a platform for further improving technology to solve big energy challenges.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Exploring the Impact of Near-Term Innovations on the Technical Potential of Land-Based Wind Energy

Land based wind may play a critical role in reaching emissions reductions goals and high renewable contribution scenarios with capacity expansion modeling results estimating over 1 terawatt of land-based wind by 2035 to reach 100% clean electricity. Deployment of land-based wind at this magnitude may require significant investments in transmission infrastructure and will require significant land area for new wind and transmission. Cost reductions via technological advancements in wind turbine design, construction, and maintenance will have a major role in enabling the scale of deployment required. Since 1998, the levelized cost of wind energy has fallen by over 60% due to improvements in capacity factors, advancements in turbine controls, and cost reductions in installation, operation, and maintenance. These cost reduction pathways, generally referred to as wind technology "innovations", have enabled significant increases in the capacity and electric generation share of wind power in the United States. Nevertheless, achievements of past wind innovations have not led to widespread wind deployment outside of high wind speed geographies. This study evaluates the potential of near-term innovations to expand the geographic range of economically viable land-based wind power production in the United States. Many challenges to future deployment of wind power can be associated with increasing concentration in high-wind areas. As more wind power is deployed in these same areas, it is likely that residential and regulatory resistance to further deployment will increase, access to transmission will diminish, and options for distant companies and governments with renewable energy goals will remain limited. Therefore, this analysis aims to emphasize the potential for innovations to enable land-based wind in regions with limited wind deployment and with lower wind resource and better access to transmission.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Low Cost (CAPEX and variable): Tool design for cell and module fabrication with thin, free-standing silicon wafers

This project aimed to develop technologies that can potentially enable free-standing thin (<80 μm) wafer in today’s manufacturing lines with high production yield, and thereby reduce capex barriers of silicon photovoltaics cells and modules. One of the major benefits is that thin wafer dramatically reduces the amount of polysilicon required. As a result, it can lead to reduction in the capital expenditures associated with polysilicon refining and wafer fabrication, which together are more than half of the total capital expenditure to manufacture Si PV module. We focused our efforts on developing the tools needed to enable high yield fabrication of wafer, cell, and module with thin silicon wafers. However, as the wafer thickness reduces, the major challenge is that wafer breakage increases significantly. Three technological areas were explored in this project to improve the production yield of the silicon wafer, namely detection of edge cracks via dark-field near-infrared (NIR) scattering; (2) wafer handling using controlled temperature profiles; (3) manufacturable low-stress cell interconnection for multiwire. First, the formation of wafer cracks in submillimeter length is one of the reasons that causes wafer breakages. Crack detection tools are needed to enable us to locate and track the wafer crack during manufacturing, so that we can improve the process to reduce initialization. The state-of-the-art crack detection technique cannot fulfill the need for measuring submillimeter edge cracks detrimental for thin wafers. The prototype developed in this project demonstrates the scanning of microcracks near wafer edges. With a semi-automatic laboratory setup, the submillimeter cracks were reliably detected near the edges in multi-Si wafers. The smallest detectable crack is 200 µm in length in slow scans; and submillimeter cracks are detected in high-throughput scans at the scan speed of >0.5 m/s, which is compatible with the inline detection of a manufacturing line at least 1 sec/wafer. This detection limit is a significant advancement in comparison to the benchmarked industrial tool. Second, wafer handling with the well-controlled temperature profile was thought to be the solution to reduce crack initiation and propagation during the manufacturing. However, without crack detection being widely adopted in production line, we did not find a strong industrial pull toward this technology. We did an initial literature survey and then diverted our efforts to the other tasks. Third, the innovation on low-stress multi-wire interconnection tackles a fundamental problem in the standard interconnection scheme. The standard over-under “zig-zag” interconnection induces a significant amount of stress into the soldering point on the cell whenever PV module is under stress, e.g., thermal cycling, transportation, and installation. Therefore, the interconnection process was re-designed in this project to allow for significant movement between adjacent solar cells, e.g., due to thermal expansion, without building up stresses on the solar cells or solder joints. The new interconnection method with the cross-connect wire also simplifies the tabbing and stringing process by replacing the standard over-under method with an off-cell interconnect from top to bottom. A manual tabbing and stringing tool for this new process was prototyped in the lab to demonstrate the fabrication of this new interconnection design. During the test with brass sheets as our “testing cells”, it was found that the mechanical cycling test only broke the interconnection after more than 50,000 cycles, which is equivalent to more than 130 years of the day-and-night thermal cycles. Lastly, throughout the project, we continuously analyzed the PV market with techno-economic analysis to identify the opportunity for thin Si adoption. Even though the drastic cost reduction has already happened in the past five years, our analysis results indicated that we can still save quite significantly in both manufacturing cost and factory capex, Particularly, in order to grow the PV manufacturing capacity to multi-terawatt level, reducing the thickness of silicon wafer is one of the most effective ways to quickly reduce factory capex, and sustain the high growth rate. The technologies developed in this project are readily available to provide some assistances in tackling the production yield problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗