Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “temporal correlation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

MultiLoad-GAN: A GAN-Based Synthetic Load Group Generation Method Considering Spatial-Temporal Correlations

This paper presents a deep-learning framework, Multi-load Generative Adversarial Network (MultiLoad-GAN), for generating a group of synthetic load profiles (SLPs) simultaneously. The main contribution of MultiLoad-GAN is the capture of spatial-temporal correlations among a group of loads that are served by the same distribution transformer. This enables the generation of a large amount of correlated SLPs required for microgrid and distribution system studies. Here, the novelty and uniqueness of the MultiLoad-GAN framework are three-fold. First, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first method for generating a group of load profiles bearing realistic spatial- temporal correlations simultaneously. Second, two complementary realisticness metrics for evaluating generated load profiles are developed: computing statistics based on domain knowledge and comparing high-level features via a deep-learning classifier. Third, to tackle data scarcity, a novel iterative data augmentation mechanism is developed to generate training samples for enhancing the training of both the classifier and the MultiLoad-GAN model. Simulation results show that MultiLoad- GAN can generate more realistic load profiles than existing approaches, especially in group level characteristics. With little finetuning, MultiLoad-GAN can be readily extended to generate a group of load or PV profiles for a feeder or a service area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-tooth bosonic quantum comb for temporal-correlation sensing

We introduce a two-tooth bosonic quantum comb that captures the sequential interactions between a thermal absorber and a long-lived coherent probe. The comb provides a causal, multi-time description of coherence transport, tracking how the probe records both instantaneous fluctuations and their temporal correlations. Using a process-tensor formulation, we derive closed form expressions showing that interference between the two interaction windows generates a non-monotonic memory response that reflects a fundamental competition between the absorbers thermal population and its dynamical correlations. By sweeping the temporal separation between the interaction windows, the probe directly samples the absorbers population correlator, enabling bosonic noise spectroscopy that discriminates Markovian temperature noise from slow or spectrally structured fluctuations. The approach is readily compatible with circuit-QED platforms and offers a general method for probing fluctuating bosonic environments.

Zhu, Shaojiang [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Real-time interfacial electron dynamics revealed through temporal correlations in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

We present a novel technique to monitor dynamics in interfacial systems through temporal correlations in x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) signals. To date, the vast majority of time-resolved x-ray spectroscopy techniques rely on pump–probe schemes, in which the sample is excited out of equilibrium by a pump pulse, and the subsequent dynamics are monitored by probe pulses arriving at a series of well-defined delays relative to the excitation. By definition, this approach is restricted to processes that can either directly or indirectly be initiated by light. It cannot access spontaneous dynamics or the microscopic fluctuations of ensembles in chemical or thermal equilibrium. Enabling this capability requires measurements to be performed in real (laboratory) time with high temporal resolution and, ultimately, without the need for a well-defined trigger event. The time-correlation XPS technique presented here is a first step toward this goal. The correlation-based technique is implemented by extending an existing optical-laser pump/multiple x-ray probe setup by the capability to record the kinetic energy and absolute time of arrival of every detected photoelectron. The method is benchmarked by monitoring energy-dependent, periodic signal modulations in a prototypical time-resolved XPS experiment on photoinduced surface-photovoltage dynamics in silicon, using both conventional pump–probe data acquisition, and the new technique based on laboratory time. The two measurements lead to the same result. The findings provide a critical milestone toward the overarching goal of studying equilibrium dynamics at surfaces and interfaces through time correlation-based XPS measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Point defect evolution under irradiation: Finite size effects and spatio-temporal correlations

The evolution of point defect concentrations under irradiation is controlled by their diffusion properties, and by their formation and elimination mechanisms. The latter includes the mutual recombination of vacancies and interstitials, and the elimination of point defects at sinks. Two models are traditionally used to predict the defect concentration evolution, the standard rate theory (SRT) and the atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (AKMC). We show in this work a large discrepancy in the defect concentrations between both methods when the average number of defects in the AKMC simulation box is close or lower than one. The reason is that AKMC naturally captures strong space and time correlations between vacancies and interstitials generated by the finite size of the periodic simulation box. These correlations strongly affect the recombination rate and the point defect concentrations. SRT fails to predict such correlations, and the corresponding solution deviates from the more accurate solution given by the AKMC simulation under similar conditions. These finite size correlation effects are strong when the elimination of point defects occurs by recombination only, but can still be significant in the presence of sinks. In order to account for the spacio-temporal correlation in a continuum framework, we introduce a Correlated Pair Theory (CPT). This theory fully takes into account the correlations between vacancy and interstitial pairs and predicts point defect concentrations in good agreement with AKMC simulations. Inversely, if the goal is for the AKMC to reproduce defect concentrations in bulk using small simulation boxes, the naturally occurring correlations need to be corrected. We show here that the CPT can be used to modify the elimination rates in the AKMC simulations, so as to yield point defect concentrations in agreement with SRT.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reply to Smith and Siegel: Most lithium hops in paddlewheel-claimed conductors occur without spatially and temporally correlated anion-group rotations

We appreciate the engagement from Smith and Siegel on the topic of the “paddlewheel effect” and are pleased to see alignment regarding the absence of a paddlewheel effect, in which large-angle anion-group rotations directly propel lithium hops. In our paper, we clearly state the ambiguity surrounding the term “paddlewheel” to describe lithium transport. We believe that science is not well served by this vague term or its regular redefinition which is why we distinguish three types of anion-group rotation events: large-angle rotations (n-fold rotation returning to a rotationally invariant configuration), librations (e.g., rotational vibrations), and static changes of orientation in response to the change of Li occupancy. Here, we directly evaluate the spatial and temporal correlation between such polyanion rotations and Li hops.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graph Convolutional Network for Active Distribution System Anomaly Detection Considering Measurement Spatial-Temporal Correlations

The accuracy of distribution system state estimation may be significantly impacted by the existence of bad measure-ments and unexpected topology errors. This paper proposes a data-driven Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) for anomaly detection, including bad measurements and topology change events. Compared to many existing machine learning approaches, the proposed approach embeds both spatial-temporal measure-ment correlations, which allows us to detect and distinguish different anomalies. Numerical results carried out on the IEEE 37-node system demonstrate that the proposed-based method can obtain high accuracy in detecting bad data and topology changes as compared to other approaches, even in the presence of high PV penetrations.

active distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Forecasting of Thermostatic and Residential Loads Using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks

Internet of Things (IoT) devices in smart grids enable intelligent energy management for grid managers and personalized energy services for consumers. Investigating a smart grid with IoT devices requires a simulation framework with IoT devices modeling. However, there lack comprehensive study on the modeling of IoT devices in smart grids. This paper investigates the IoT device modeling of a thermostatic load and implements the recurrent neural networks model for short-term load forecasting in this IoT-based thermostatic load. The recurrent neural network structure is leveraged to build a load forecasting model on temporal correlation. The temporal recurrent neural network layers including long short-term memory cells are employed to learn the data from both the simulation platform and New South Wales residential datasets. The simulation results are provided for demonstration.

electric load forecasting↗
DOE OSTI2020

More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

Evidence for fluid–injection–induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection–induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (M L 5.2) and 1985 (M w 4.5) within ~6 km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel–1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5 cm/yr, indicating pressure–imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ~800 m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. Furthermore, the San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long–term, spatially persistent external forcing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

MSASGCN : Multi-Head Self-Attention Spatiotemporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting

Traffic flow forecasting is an essential task of an intelligent transportation system (ITS), closely related to intelligent transportation management and resource scheduling. Dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies in traffic data make traffic flow forecasting to be a challenging task. Most existing research cannot model dynamic spatial and temporal correlations to achieve well-forecasting performance. The multi-head self-attention mechanism is a valuable method to capture dynamic spatial-temporal correlations, and combining it with graph convolutional networks is a promising solution. Therefore, we propose a multi-head self-attention spatiotemporal graph convolutional network (MSASGCN) model. It can effectively capture local correlations and potential global correlations of spatial structures, can handle dynamic evolution of the road network, and, in the time dimension, can effectively capture dynamic temporal correlations. Experiments on two real datasets verify the stability of our proposed model, obtaining a better prediction performance than the baseline algorithms. The correlation metrics get significantly reduced compared with traditional time series prediction methods and deep learning methods without using graph neural networks, according to MAE and RMSE results. Compared with advanced traffic flow forecasting methods, our model also has a performance improvement and a more stable prediction performance. We also discuss some problems and challenges in traffic forecasting.

Cao, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Physics-guided Deep Learning for Power System State Estimation

In the past decade, dramatic progress has been made in the field of machine learning. This paper explores the possibility of applying deep learning in power system state estimation. Traditionally, physics-based models are used including weighted least square (WLS) or weighted least absolute value (WLAV). These models typically consider a single snapshot of the system without capturing temporal correlations of system states. In this paper, a physics-guided deep learning (PGDL) method is proposed. Specifically, inspired by autoencoders, deep neural networks (DNNs) are used to learn the temporal correlations. The estimated system states from DNNs are then checked against physics laws by running through a set of power flow equations. Hence, the proposed PGDL is both data-driven and physics-guided. The accuracy and robustness of the proposed PGDL method are compared with traditional methods in standard IEEE cases. Simulations show promising results and the applicability is further discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗