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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constructing Water‐Stable Porous Organic Salts via Suppressed Proton Integration Using Fluorinated Tetrazole Tectons

Porous organic salts (POSs) are an emerging class of materials with ordered ionic architectures, offering excellent proton transfer and water uptake properties. However, conventional POS synthesis via strong acid–base neutralization (e.g., ─SO₃H and ─NH₂) leads to extensive hydrogen bonding with water, compromising stability in aqueous and water-lean environments. Here, we address this challenge by designing POSs with hydrophobic porous channels and minimal hydrogen bonding formation. Our key innovation is the use of fluorinated tetrazole as a weak acid tecton and a tetra-substituted imidazole precursor devoid of active protons as the base. Single-crystal analysis and computational modeling reveal that the structural integrity of the synthesized POSs arises primarily from cation–anion interactions, with water confined as clusters in the pores, independent of hydrogen bonding with the scaffold. Robustness of the POS structure under aqueous and water-lean conditions is confirmed by X-ray and neutron scattering, as well as computational modeling, confirming preserved packing and crystal structures. The stability of POS is further demonstrated in aqueous iodine capture, with imidazolium cations and C–F functionalizations serving as strong adsorption sites. As a result, the approach developed herein further pushes the boundary of POS materials to withstand both aqueous and water-lean conditions.

Fluorinated tecton↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shaping Peptide Assemblies Using Multifaceted Cyclic Tectons

Constructing distinct biomacromolecular assemblies typically necessitates target-specific selection and engineering of building blocks alongside optimization of assembly conditions. The challenge lies in achieving diverse morphological outcomes using simple, shared modules under identical conditions, a hallmark of natural systems that remains elusive in synthetic approaches. Here, in this work, we present a molecular scaffold-based strategy to instruct the coassembly of the same set of peptides into a variety of nanostructures across multiple dimensions. We create trifaceted cyclic scaffolds to manipulate two pairs of dimeric coiled-coil peptides prior to coassembly. These scaffolds, with addressable and orthogonal modules, allow controlled exposure of their cohesive faces, directing the formation of nanotriangles and fibrillar and lamellar assemblies. By tuning interpeptide arrangements that dictate scaffold geometry, we construct nonstraight fibrils with tunable curvature, which are rarely observed before. Notably, these scaffolds exhibit plasticity in adapting the sizes and orientations of cohesive faces to different assembly morphologies. The resultant nanostructures are consistent with the design and simulation results, demonstrating the reliability and predictability of this approach. Multifaceted cyclic scaffolds bridge the intellectual and physical gaps between building peptides and assemblies, holding promise for endowing various existing assembly systems with high tunability and versatility.

assembly morphology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climatic controls on erosional efficiency vary with lithology across the Himalaya

Although climate can strongly influence erosional efficiency (i.e., erosion rate for a given topography), demonstrating its impact in tectonically active areas has been challenging due to other confounding controlling factors, such as lithology. Here, we show that 10 Be-derived erosion rates and efficiencies in the Himalayan orogen exhibit distinct relationships with climatic factors depending on lithology. We compile 173 10 Be-derived, basin-averaged erosion rates across the orogen, including 12 newly measured rates from the Dibang and Lohit valleys in the easternmost Himalaya, regions characterized by high precipitation magnitudes and variability. We group basins based on lithologies separated by orogen-scale thrust faults and quantify erosional efficiency coefficients based on the relationships between erosion rates and topographic metrics. Our results show that erosion rates and erosional efficiency from sedimentary and metasedimentary rocks along the Himalayan range front display a positive, nonlinear correlation with climatic factors, such as the number of extreme rainfall events and mean annual precipitation rates. In contrast, erosion rates from crystalline lithologies in the hanging wall of the Main Central thrust show a strong correlation with fluvial topography, whereas erosional efficiency shows no statistically significant correlation with climatic factors. Rapid erosion rates and high erosional efficiencies in the eastern Himalayan range front are likely driven by extreme precipitation on tectonically active, steep slopes composed of mechanically weak metasedimentary rocks. Our findings highlight the importance of the interplay between controlling factors, which include tectonics, lithology, and climate, that drive surface erosion and influence the topographic evolution of orogenic systems.

Channel steepness↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Mystery of Baselevel Controls in the Incision History of the Central Colorado Plateau

Erosion can remain active and changing in landscapes long after tectonic drivers have ceased, potentially due to local-geologic controls, climate changes, or geodynamics. We present new fluvial incision-rate histories and terrain analyses of the Colorado River system through the central Colorado Plateau to understand what has caused the variable erosion across this post-orogenic landscape. Results from new cosmogenic and luminescence dating of fluvial terrace and upland gravel deposits in Glen and Meander Canyons establish incision-rate histories that are marked by an Early-Middle Pleistocene erosion hiatus, followed by ~200 m of rapid incision over the last ~350 kyr. Projection of fluvial topography from above knickzones of the Colorado River drainage system roughly agree with the observed magnitude of recent incision and reflect a common baselevel fall from Pliocene river integration through Grand Canyon, which is still propagating through the drainage. A response-time model indicates that baselevel fall from integration likely took 2–4 Myr to reach the central Colorado Plateau and 100s kyr to travel across the study area, potentially accounting for incision rate changes in the fluvial terrace records of Meander and Glen Canyons. The upstream-migrating incision has likely been partitioned into multiple waves across the landscape due to the local geologic controls of lava damming, salt tectonics, and heterogenous bedrock. As baselevel fall from Pliocene Colorado River integration diffuses upstream, it can only account for perhaps a quarter of the total ~2 km of exhumation in the central Colorado Plateau, demanding an unknown driver for significant erosion in the Pliocene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Continental rift evolution and drainage reorganization along the Dead Sea rift since the Miocene

The Dead Sea fault is a section of the Arabian-African plate boundary. Widespread field relations indicate that three major drainage systems (stages) occupied the landscape west of the Dead Sea fault since its initiation at ca. 20 Ma. Specifically, (1) an early to middle Miocene drainage system, only minorly reconfigured by the fault (all sediments of this system belong to the Hazeva Formation); (2) a late Miocene to early Pleistocene fault-parallel drainage system named Paran-Neqarot (all sediments of this system belong to the Arava and Zehiha Formations; and (3) the early Pleistocene to present drainage configuration. The temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 1 are generally constrained by radiometric dating of interfingering volcanic units, and the onset and temporal and spatial frameworks of drainage stage 3 are well constrained by cosmogenic 10 Be surface exposure ages. The timing and longevity of the rift-parallel drainage (stage 2) have until now been evasive to direct dating. The overall time gap between stages 1 and 3 is ~12–13 million years. Thus, an early age (within this time gap) of stage 2 would imply an immediate response of drainage reorganization to rift tectonics, while a later age of this drainage system would imply a delayed response. We present 11 10 Be- 26 Al cosmogenic burial ages of alluvial and colluvial units related to the fault-parallel drainage system (stage 2), which collectively constrain the time of deposition of the Arava Formation sediments in the central Negev to ca. 8 Ma. The general lack of stratigraphic order, together with the large dispersion of ages both across and within the sampling sites, attests to significant recycling of sediments from drainage stage 1 into the Arava Formation deposits. The termination of Arava and Zehiha Formation sediment deposition at ca. 1.8 Ma was determined previously using cosmogenic exposure ages of desert pavements that cover the formations. Combining the previously published data with our new data, we established the longevity and character of the Paran-Neqarot drainage system. In conlcusion, this framework highlights the temporal aspect of drainage system build-up and collapse as it responded to transform and extensional plate boundary tectonics during the Neogene.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tracking the spatial and temporal links between late Cenozoic extension and magmatism in the Death Valley region (California, USA)

The relationship between late Cenozoic magmatism and extension in the central Basin and Range province (western United States) is complex, necessitating high-precision geochronology to understand its spatiotemporal connections. In the Death Valley region (California), the lack of high-precision U-Pb zircon ages has limited our understanding of the timing of pluton formation and its links to regional extension. We present new high-precision chemical abrasion-isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry 206 Pb/ 238 U zircon ages and trace element analyses for eight Death Valley plutons. Our findings reveal three distinct phases of intrusive magmatism: (1) emplacement of shallow rapakivi granites at 13.2 Ma, (2) construction of the mid-crustal Black Mountains intrusive complex at 11.3 Ma, and (3) late emplacement of shallow, compositionally diverse intrusions at 8.2 Ma. A gap in zircon crystallization between 10 Ma and 8.2 Ma coincides with exhumation of the Black Mountains and a transition from sill to dike emplacement. The dominance of rapakivi granites in the Death Valley region, which is rare among Cenozoic granitoids, is likely a result of rapid crustal extension that induces adiabatic decompression. A comparison of the timing of volcanism, plutonism, and tectonic events in Death Valley reveals that intrusive magmatism closely tracks the locus of extension, underscoring the plutonic record as a vital link for understanding regional tectonics and changes in plate boundary dynamics during this period.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy and Comfort Impacts of High Performance Facades in Office Buildings

Building facades have a major effect on energy use, occupant comfort, and well-being. Yet adoption of high-performance facades is often slowed by limited data and unclear cost benefits. To address this gap, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in collaboration with the Facade Tectonics Institute, conducted whole-building energy simulations to evaluate fenestration technologies for small and medium office buildings across three weather locations: hot (Tampa, Florida, weather zone 2A), mixed (New York, New York, weather zone 4A), and cold (Rochester, Minnesota, weather zone 6A). The simulations included parametric variations in window-to-wall ratio (30%–70%), U-values (0.1–1 Btu/h∙ft 2 ∙°F), solar heat gain coefficients (0.2–0.8), and solar control strategies and devices (e.g., interior shades and switchable glazing). Performance metrics included annual cooling, heating, and total heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) energy use intensity, as well as nonenergy factors such as useful daylight illuminance, glare frequency, and thermal comfort during typical office hours (8 a.m.–6 p.m.). Results indicate that cooling energy consumption is most sensitive to solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) in hot weather, whereas heating energy consumption is strongly influenced by U-value in cold weather. Total HVAC reflects these trade-offs, showing up to 60% difference for a window in total HVAC energy use intensity between different combinations of U-value and SHGC. Daylight dimming generally reduces cooling loads but can increase heating demands in colder locations. Interior solar shades improve useful daylight and reduce discomfort glare, whereas switchable glazing delivers the largest cooling reductions in hot weather but may increase heating loads in winter by limiting passive solar gains. Thermal comfort improves with lower window-to-wall ratios and lower SHGC in hot locations and with lower U-values in cold locations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Osmotic control of the spacing of parallel shear cracks in shale growing subcritically in geologic past

The geological genesis of natural cracks in sedimentary rocks such as shale is a problem that needs to be understood to improve the technology of hydraulic fracturing as well as deep sequestration of harmful fluids. Why are the vertical natural cracks roughly parallel and equidistant, and why is the spacing roughly 10 cm rather than 1 cm or 100 cm? Fracture mechanics of critical cracks cannot answer this question. Neither can the material heterogeneity. The growth of critical parallel cracks is impossible because the relative crack face displacements would immediately localize into one crack, leading to an earthquake. The cracks must have formed, on the tectonic time scale, by a slow growth of subcritical shear cracks governed by the Charles-Evans law. The idea advanced here is that what controls the crack spacing is the balance between the reduction, due to shear dilatancy, of the concentration of ions such as Na + and Cl - in each fracture process zone (PFZ), which decelerates the cracks, and the restoration of ion concentration by diffusion of ions from the space between the cracks into the FPZ. This diffusion of water is driven mainly by the osmotic pressure gradient, which offsets the deceleration and depends strongly on the crack spacing. A simple analytical solution of the steady state is rendered possible by approximating the ion concentration profiles between adjacent cracks by parabolic arcs. Applying this theory to Woodford shale yields the approximate crack spacing of 10 cm, which is realistic. Furthermore, the stability of unlimited parallel mode II frictional crack growth is proven by examining the second variation of the free energy. Water concentration drop in the FPZ due to shear dilatancy and its restoration by water diffusion from the inter-crack space have similar effect, although probably much weaker.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comprehensive earthquake catalogue update and spatiotemporal distribution analysis for Iraq and surrounding regions, northeastern Arabian Plate

The updated earthquake catalogue for Iraq covers the period from 1900 to the end of 2021 and includes over 37 000 recorded earthquakes. To create this comprehensive catalogue, five key steps were taken: compiling bulletins, calculating moment magnitudes, harmonizing magnitudes, establishing empirical conversion relations and evaluating the completeness of the catalogue. A notable enhancement in this update is the direct calculation of moment magnitudes for approximately 2800 earthquakes, achieved through the coda envelope technique and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq. This updated catalogue serves as a valuable resource for examining the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, with respect to earthquake density, maximum moment magnitude and seismogenic depths. Additionally, the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was applied to calculate the a- and b-values specific to Iraq. The findings show that the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt has a seismogenic layer (source) that ranges from 2 to 33 km deep and experiences high seismic activity. In contrast, the Mesopotamian Foredeep has a seismogenic layer ranging from 1 to 25 km deep and has lower seismic activity. The greatest seismic activity is concentrated around the Mandili-Badra-Teeb fault, which has experienced significant ruptures over time. The Outer Arabian Platform is identified as the main area of seismic activity, while additional activity occurs on the Inner Arabian Platform. Three major tectonic boundaries define the distribution of earthquakes in the northeastern Arabian Plate. These boundaries are defined by the Main Zagros Reverse Fault, the Zagros Foredeep Fault and the Anah Graben and Abu Jir-Euphrates Fault Zone. These boundaries highlight variations in seismicity levels and the spatial distribution of deformation in the region. The updated earthquake catalogue presented in this study is expected to play a vital role in regional seismicity assessments and seismic hazard analyses for Iraq and its surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long‐term growth and persistence of granitic inselbergs in a semi‐arid cratonic landscape

Granitic inselbergs are enduring landforms that punctuate planation surfaces in tectonically stable settings, yet the mechanisms and timescales of their persistence remain debated. Here, in this study, we present a multinuclide cosmogenic dataset ( 10 Be, 26 Al and 21 Ne) from bedrock, fluvial sediments and planation surfaces in the semi-arid Central Ceará Domain, north-eastern Brazil, to quantify denudation rates and reconstruct the long-term dynamics of residual relief formation. This triple-nuclide approach enables independent validation of denudation contrasts and long-term exposure histories, providing quantitative constraints on inselberg evolution that a single-nuclide approach could not resolve. Bedrock denudation rates (1–4 m Myr −1 ) are systematically lower than basin-wide rates (8–14 m Myr −1 ), revealing a regional pattern of vertical differential denudation. When combined with summit elevations and surface exposure ages of up to 5 Myr, these contrasts suggest that cumulative relief growth has been operating over timescales of tens of millions of years (1–57 Myr). Morphological and structural observations further indicate localized mass wasting and heterogeneous erosion styles, modulated by rock fabric and joint density. Cosmogenic nuclide inventories in detrital sediments reveal partial reworking from older sediment stocks, including surface pebbles with exposure ages up to 5 Myr, which record multistage of burial and re-exposure histories and reflect episodic remobilization in low-connectivity, semi-arid catchments. Rather than static relicts of ancient surfaces, inselbergs in this cratonic setting emerge as dynamic landforms actively sustained by slow but persistent differential denudation. These results provide new constraints on long-term cratonic landscape evolution and underscore the interplay between lithological resistance, structural inheritance and sediment transfer processes in sustaining topographic relief. They also call for a critical reassessment of classical inselberg models, suggesting that hybrid mechanisms, rather than single-process paradigms, more accurately capture the complexity of residual landform development in cratonic interiors.

Cosmogenic nuclides↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring microstructures and anisotropies of serpentinites

Serpentine minerals have received a lot of attention because of their unique crystal structures, their wide occurrence in orogenic belts and their potential role in contributing seismic anisotropy in subducting slabs. Several studies have investigated crystal preferred orientation (CPO) in high temperature antigorite serpentinites from Japan, the Alps, Spain, Cuba and Tibet, documenting significant crystal alignment. However, only a limited number of lower grade serpentines have been explored to date. Mainly because of submicroscopic microstructural heterogeneities CPO cannot be measured with conventional methods such as optical microscopy and EBSD. In this study 15 serpentinites from different tectonic settings in California, the Central Alps and Northern Spain have been investigated, mainly with high energy synchrotron X-ray diffraction, to quantify bulk crystal alignment. We find that CPO is strong on sheared surfaces of fractured blocks and secondary veins but the bulk of most serpentinite samples, except high-grade recrystallized antigorite serpentinite, show only weak crystal alignment. Correspondingly calculated seismic anisotropy based on CPO is not very significant. This is supported by very heterogeneous microstructures as documented with SEM and TEM analyses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure of the Ecuadorian Upper Plate From a Joint Seismic‐Gravity Inversion

The Ecuadorian portion of the South American subduction zone presents an interesting case study in the structure and complex evolution of an upper plate. There are outstanding questions about its tectonic history, composition, and magmatic processes. While previous studies have employed ambient noise tomography to image the Ecuadorian upper plate, surface wave inversions alone often lack sensitivity at relevant shallow depths. This limitation can be overcome with an independent, complementary data set, such as gravity. We have jointly inverted Rayleigh wave phase velocities and Bouguer gravity anomalies to provide a more detailed seismic velocity model of the Ecuadorian upper plate. Our joint inversion has yielded several key improvements from previous models. First, we observe much shallower slow velocities beneath major basins (the Manabí, Progreso, and Gulf of Guayaquil), better aligning with expected basin structure. Second, we identify a high-velocity block beneath the entire forearc, corresponding to the Piñon Terrane, with velocities suggesting the presence of ultramafic material. Third, we highlight a new narrow swath of slow velocities beneath the Ecuadorian Andes, which closely follows the active volcanoes along the Eastern Cordillera. The extent of these slow velocities coincides with the termination of active arc volcanism and the predicted location of the subducted Carnegie Ridge. The predicted compositions for the mid to lower crust in the region preclude a purely compositional explanation for these velocities, suggesting that some level of partial melt is necessary.

Birkey, Andrew [Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2026

Corundum Discovered by SuperCam and the Perseverance Rover at Jezero Crater, Mars

Minerals provide clues to the type of geologic environments in which they form. The primary types of minerals that have been identified on Mars indicate a history dominated by volcanism followed by interaction with water. However, other minerals are sometimes found. Here we present results from the SuperCam instrument on the Perseverance rover in which the mineral corundum (α-Al2O3) has been identified using a technique called time-resolved luminescence spectroscopy. Corundum has a unique light-emitting (luminescence) feature based on two well-known peaks as well as the time it takes for this light to fade after being excited by a laser, which is referred to as the lifetime. Corundum forms in specific environments that are enriched in aluminum and depleted in silicon and have been subjected to high temperature and pressure. Such places include deep subsurface magmas or shallower locations that have been exposed to high temperature through tectonic processes or meteorite impacts. Given their small size, association with a mineral called plagioclase, and location on the heavily impacted crater rim, we propose that these corundum minerals formed through impact processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

The glass-ceiling convective regime and the origin and diversity of coronae on Venus

Venus and Earth are rocky planets of roughly the same size and bulk density, yet their surface volcanic and tectonic features appear substantially different. On Venus, the coexistence of large volcanic highlands—interpreted as the surface expression of long-lived mantle plumes—alongside coronae, smaller features thought to be caused by transient thermal diapirs, remains enigmatic. Using two-dimensional numerical models of mantle convection with sharp and broad mineral phase transitions for pyrolite, we show that both scales of upwellings can be generated in a stagnant lid planet with an interior temperature 250 to 400 K warmer than Earth’s. The smaller plumes originate from a ~600 km deep internal layer that exists as a consequence of the different sequence of mineral phase transitions that occur in warmer mantles less processed and differentiated by partial melting and volcanism. Future models that include melting will provide further tests of our hypothesis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗