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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of Extremes in Global Precipitation Products: How Reliable Are They?

Global gridded precipitation products have proven essential for many applications ranging from hydrological modeling and climate model validation to natural hazard risk assessment. They provide a global picture of how precipitation varies across time and space, specifically in regions where ground-based observations are scarce. While the application of global precipitation products has become widespread, there is limited knowledge on how well these products represent the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation—the key features in triggering flood hazards. Here, five global precipitation datasets (MSWEP, CFSR, CPC, PERSIANN-CDR, and WFDEI) are compared to each other and to surface observations. The spatial variability of relatively high precipitation events (tail heaviness) and the resulting discrepancy among datasets in the predicted precipitation return levels were evaluated for the time period 1979–2017. The analysis shows that 1) these products do not provide a consistent representation of the behavior of extremes as quantified by the tail heaviness, 2) there is strong spatial variability in the tail index, 3) the spatial patterns of the tail heaviness generally match the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, and 4) the predicted return levels for 100 and 1000 years differ significantly among the gridded products. More generally, our findings reveal shortcomings of global precipitation products in representing extremes and highlight that there is no single global product that performs best for all regions and climates.

Risk assessment↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measuring the giant radio galaxy length distribution with the LoTSS

Many massive galaxies launch jets from the accretion disk of their central black hole, but only ~10 3 instances are known in which the associated outflows form giant radio galaxies (GRGs, or giants): luminous structures of megaparsec extent that consist of atomic nuclei, relativistic electrons, and magnetic fields. Large samples are imperative to understanding the enigmatic growth of giants, and recent systematic searches in homogeneous surveys constitute a promising development. For the first time, it is possible to perform meaningful precision statistics with GRG lengths, but a framework to do so is missing. We measured the intrinsic GRG length distribution by combining a novel statistical framework with a LOFAR Two-metre Sky Survey (LoTSS) sample of freshly discovered giants. In turn, this allowed us to answer an array of questions on giants. For example, we can now assess how rare a 5 Mpc giant is compared with one of 1 Mpc, and how much larger – given a projected length – the corresponding intrinsic length is expected to be. Notably, we can now also infer the GRG number density in the Local Universe. We assumed the intrinsic GRG length distribution to be Paretian (i.e. of power-law form) with tail index ξ, and predicted the observed distribution by modelling projection and selection effects. To infer ξ, we also systematically searched the LoTSS for hitherto unknown giants and compiled the largest catalogue of giants to date. We show that if intrinsic GRG lengths are Pareto distributed with index ξ, then projected GRG lengths are also Pareto distributed with index ξ. Selection effects induce curvature in the observed projected GRG length distribution: angular length selection flattens it towards the lower end, while surface brightness selection steepens it towards the higher end. We explicitly derived a GRG’s posterior over intrinsic lengths given its projected length, laying bare the ξ dependence. We also discovered 2060 giants within LoTSS DR2 pipeline products; our sample more than doubles the known population. Spectacular discoveries include the largest, second-largest, and fourth-largest GRG known (l p = 5.1 Mpc, l p = 5.0 Mpc, and l p = 4.8 Mpc), the largest GRG known hosted by a spiral galaxy (l p = 2.5 Mpc), and the largest secure GRG known beyond redshift 1 (l p = 3.9 Mpc). We increase the number of known giants whose angular length exceeds that of the Moon from 10 to 23; among the discoveries is the angularly largest known radio galaxy in the Northern Sky, which is also the angularly largest known GRG ($\phi$ = 2°). Combining theory and data, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution, and measured the index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5. This implies that, given its projected length, a GRG’s intrinsic length is expected to be just 15% larger. Finally, we determined the comoving number density of giants in the Local Universe to be n GRG = 5 ± 2(100 Mpc) –3 . We developed a practical mathematical framework that elucidates the statistics of giant radio galaxy lengths. Through a LoTSS search, we also discovered 2060 new giants. By combining both advances, we determined that intrinsic GRG lengths are well described by a Pareto distribution with index ξ = –3.5 ± 0.5, and that giants are truly rare in a cosmological sense: most clusters and filaments of the Cosmic Web are not currently home to a giant. Thus, our work yields new observational constraints for analytical models and simulations featuring radio galaxy growth.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spectral State Evolution of 4U 1820-30: the Stability of the Spectral Index of Comptonization Tail

We analyze the X-ray spectra and their timing properties of the compact Xray binary 4U 1820-30. We establish spectral transitions in this source seen with BeppoSAX and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). During the RXTE observations (1996 - 2009), the source were approximately approximately 75% of its time in the soft state making the lower banana and upper banana transitions combined with long-term low-high state transitions. We reveal that all of the X-ray spectra of 4U 1820-30 are fit by a composition of a thermal (blackbody) component, a Comptonization component (COMPTB) and a Gaussian-line component. Thus using this spectral analysis we find that the photon power-law index Gamma of the Comptonization component is almost unchangeable (Gamma approximately 2) while the electron temperature kTe changes from 2.9 to 21 keV during these spectral events. We also establish that for these spectral events the normalization of COMPTB component (which is proportional to mass accretion rate ˙M) increases by factor 8 when kTe decreases from 21 keV to 2.9 keV. Before this index stability effect was also found analyzing X-ray data for Z-source GX 340+0 and for atolls, 4U 1728-34, GX 3+1. Thus, we can suggest that this spectral stability property is a spectral signature of an accreting neutron star source. On the other hand in a black hole binary Γ monotonically increases with ˙Mand ultimately its value saturates at large ˙M.

evolution↗
NASA NTRS1999

Tail Lobe Revisited: Magnetic Field Modeling Based on Plasma Data

Plasma data from the ISEE-1 and -2 spacecraft during 1977-1980 have been used to determine the distribution of data points in the magnetotail in the range of distances -20 < XGSM < --15, i.e. which of the records that were located in the current sheet, in the tail lobe, in the magnetosheath and in the boundary layers respectively. The ISEE-1 and -2 magnetic field data for the records in the tail lobe were then used to model the tail lobe magnetic field dependence on the solar wind dynamic pressure, on the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and on the Dst index. The tail lobe magnetic field was assumed to be dependent on the square root of the dynamic pressure based on the balance between the total magnetic pressure in the tail lobes and the dynamic pressure of the solar wind. The IMF dependent terms, added to the pressure term, were sought in many different forms while the Dst dependence of the tail lobe magnetic field was assumed to be linear. The field shows a strong dependence on the square root of the dynamic pressure and the different IMF dependent terms all constitute a significant contribution to the total field. However, the dependence on the Dst index turned out to be very weak at those down-tail distances. The results of this study are intended to be used for parameterizing future versions of the data-based models of the global magnetospheric magnetic field.

Karlsson, S. B. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Heliospheric Observations of Energetic Particles

Heliospheric observations of energetic particles have shown that, on long time averages, a consistent v^-5 power-law index arises even in the absence of transient events. This implies an ubiquitous acceleration process present in the solar wind that is required to generate these power-law tails and maintain them against adiabatic losses and coulomb-collisions which will cool and thermalize the plasma respectively. Though the details of this acceleration process are being debated within the community, most agree that the energy required for these tails comes from fluctuations in the magnetic field which are damped as the energy is transferred to particles. Given this source for the tail, is it then reasonable to assume that the turbulent LISM should give rise to such a power-law tail as well? IBEX observations clearly show a power-law tail of index approximately -5 in energetic neutral atoms. The simplest explanation for the origins of these ENAs are that they are energetic ions which have charge-exchanged with a neutral atom. However, this would imply that energetic ions possess a v^-5 power-law distribution at keV energies at the source of these ENAs. If the source is presumed to be the LISM, it provides additional options for explaining the, so called, IBEX ribbon. This presentation will discuss some of these options as well as potential mechanisms for the generation of a power-law spectrum in the LISM.

Summerlin, Errol J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Gamma-ray Spectral Characteristics of Thermal and Non-thermal Emission from Three Black Holes

Cygnus X-1 and the gamma-ray transients GROJ0422+32 and GROJ1719-24 displayed similar spectral properties when they underwent transitions between the high and low gamma-ray (30 keV to few MeV) intensity states. When these sources were in the high (gamma)-ray intensity state ((gamma)2, for Cygnus X-l), their spectra featured two components: a Comptonized shape below 200-300 keV with a soft power-law tail (photon index >= 3) that extended to ~1 MeV or beyond. When the sources were in the low-intensity state ((gamma)0, for Cygnus X-l), the Comptonized spectral shape below 200 keV typically vanished and the entire spectrum from 30 keV to ~1 MeV can be characterized by a single power law with a relatively harder photon index ~2-2.7. Consequently the high- and low-intensity gamma-ray spectra intersect, generally in the ~400 KeV - ~1 MeV range, in contrast to the spectral pivoting seen previously at lower (~10 keV) energies. The presence of the power-law component in both the high- and low-intensity gammaray spectra strongly suggests that the non-thermal process is likely to be at work in both the high and the low-intensity situations. We have suggested a possible scenario (Ling & Wheaton, 2003), by combining the ADAF model of Esin et al. (1998) with a separate jet region that produces the non-thermal gamma-ray emission, and which explains the state transitions. Such a scenario will be discussed in the context of the observational evidence, summarized above, from the database produced by EBOP, JPL's BATSE earth occultation analysis system.

black holes↗
NASA NTRS2016

First NuSTAR Observations of the BL Lac-Type Blazar PKS 2155-304: Constraints on the Jet Content and Distribution of Radiating Particles

We report the first hard X-ray observations with NuSTAR of the BL Lac-type blazar PKS2155-304, augmented with soft X-ray data from XMM-Newton and gamma-ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope, obtained in 2013April when the source was in a very low flux state. A joint NuSTAR and XMM spectrum, covering the energy range 0.5-60 keV, is best described by a model consisting of a log-parabola component with curvature Beta = -0.3(+0.2 -0.1) and a (local) photon index 3.04 +/- 0.15 at photon energy of 2 keV, and a hard power-law tail with photon index 2.2 +/- 0.4. The hard X-ray tail can be smoothly joined to the quasi-simultaneous gamma-ray spectrum by a synchrotron self-Compton component produced by an electron distribution with index p 2.2. Assuming that the power-law electron distribution extends down to gamma (sub min) = 1 and that there is one proton per electron, an unrealistically high total jet power of Lp approximately 10 (exp 47) erg s(sub -1) is inferred. This can be reduced by two orders of magnitude either by considering a significant presence of electron-positron pairs with lepton-to-proton ratio n(sub e+e-/n(sub p) approx. 30, or by introducing an additional, low-energy break in the electron energy distribution at the electron Lorentz factor gamma br1 approx. 100. In either case, the jet composition is expected to be strongly matter-dominated

gamma ray↗
NASA NTRS1944

Flight Studies of the Horizontal-Tail Loads Experienced by a Fighter Airplane in Abrupt Maneuvers

Field measurements were made on a fighter airplane to determine the approximate magnitude of the horizontal tail loads in accelerated flight. In these flight measurements, pressures at a few points were used as an index of the tail loads by correlating these pressures with complete pressure-distribution data obtained in the NACA full-scale tunnel. In addition, strain gages and motion pictures of tail deflections were used to explore the general nature and order of magnitude of fluctuating tail loads in accelerated stalls.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1944

Flight Studies of the Horizontal-Tail Loads Experienced by a Fighter Airplane in Abrupt Maneuvers

Field measurements were made on a fighter airplane to determine the approximate magnitude of the horizontal tail loads in accelerated flight. In these flight measurements, pressures at a few points were used as an index of the tail loads by correlating these pressures with complete pressure-distribution data obtained in the NACA full-scale tunnel. In addition, strain gages and motion pictures of tail deflections were used to explore the general nature and order of magnitude of fluctuating tail loads in accelerated stalls.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2005

Gamma-Ray Spectral State Transitions of GRO J1719-24

We report the results of an in-depth study of the long-term soft gamma-ray (30 keV to 1.7 MeV) flux and spectral variability of the transient source GRO J1719-24 that was first discovered by BATSE and SIGMA in the fall of 1993. Our results were obtained from the JPL BATSE-EBOP database covering a 1000 day period between 1993 January 13 and 1995 October 10. During this period, the source underwent a major outburst in the fall of 1993 when the 35-100 keV flux rose from a quiescent state of less than 16 mcrab before 1993 September 17 to a level of 1.5 crab on October 3. The source remained in this high-intensity state over the next approx. 70 days, during which the 35-100 keV flux decreased monotonically by 33% to 1 crab on December 12, then decreased sharply to the pretransition quiescent level of 44 mcrab on December 21, where it remained until 1994 September 5. During a 400 day period between 1994 September 5 and 1995 October 10, the source again underwent a series of five transitions when the 35-100 keV flux increased to low-intensity levels of 200 400 mcrab, a factor of 4-7 times lower than what was observed in 1993. The low- and high-intensity states were characterized by two different spectral shapes. The low-state spectra are described by a power law with a spectral index of approx. 2. The high-state spectra, on the other hand, have two components: a thermal Comptonized shape below approx. 200 keV with electron temperature k(sub Te) of approx. 37 keV and optical depth tau approx. 2.8, and a soft power-law tail with photon index of 3.4 above 200 keV that extends to approx. 500 keV. The softer high-intensity spectrum and the harder low-intensity spectrum intersect at approx. 400 keV. The nonthermal power-law gamma-ray component in both the high- and low-intensity spectra suggests that the persistent nonthermal emission source is coupled to the hot and variable thermal emission source in the system. Furthermore, the correlation of the spectral characteristics with the high- and low-intensity states resembles that seen in two other gamma-ray emitting black hole candidates, GRO J0422+32 and Cygnus X-1, suggesting that perhaps similar system configurations and processes are occurring in these systems. Possible scenarios for interpreting these behaviors are discussed.

gamma rays↗
NASA NTRS2016

Coupling of Charged Particles Via Coulombic Interactions: Numerical Simulations and Resultant Kappa-Like Velocity Space Distribution Functions

A parametric study is performed using the electrostatic simulations of Randol and Christian (2014) in which the number density, n, and initial thermal speed, theta, are varied. The range of parameters covers an extremely broad plasma regime, all the way from the very weak coupling of space plasmas to the very strong coupling of solid plasmas. The first result is that simulations at the same Lambda(sub D), where Lambda(sub D) is the plasma coupling parameter, but at different combinations of n and theta, behave exactly the same. As a function of Lambda(sub D), the form of p(v), the velocity distribution function of v, the magnitude of v, the velocity vector, is studied. For intermediate to high D, heating is observed in p(v) that obeys conservation of energy, and a suprathermal tail is formed, with a spectral index that depends on Lambda(sub D). For strong coupling (Lambda(sub D) much > 1), the form of the tail is v5, consistent with the findings of Randol and Christian (2014). For weak coupling (Lambda(sub D much <1), no acceleration or heating occurs, as there is no free energy. The dependence on N, the number of particles in the simulation, is also explored. There is a subtle dependence in the index of the tail, such that v5 appears to be the N approaches infinity limit.

Randol, Brent M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost

Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2016

Near-Earth Magnetic Field Effects of Large-Scale Magnetospheric Currents

Magnetospheric currents play an important role in the electrodynamics of near- Earth space. This has been the topic of many space science studies. Here we focus on the magnetic fields they cause close to Earth. Their contribution to the geomagnetic field is the second largest after the core field. Significant progress in interpreting the magnetic fields from the different sources has been achieved thanks to magnetic satellite missions like Ørsted, CHAMP and now Swarm. Of particular interest for this article is a proper representation of the magnetospheric ring current effect. Uncertainties in modelling its effect still produce the largest residuals between observations and present-day geomagnetic field models. A lot of progress has been achieved so far, but there are still open issues like the characteristics of the partial ring current. Other currents discussed are those flowing in the magnetospheric tail. Also their magnetic contribution at LEO orbits is non-negligible. Treating them as an independent source is a more recent development, which has cured some of the problems in geomagnetic field modelling. Unfortunately there is no index available for characterizing the tail current intensity. Here we propose an approach that may help to properly quantify the magnetic contribution from the tail current for geomagnetic field modelling. Some open questions that require further investigation are mentioned at the end.

Magnetospheric currents↗
NASA NTRS2014

NuSTAR Observations of X-Ray Bursts from the Magnetar 1E 1048.1-5937

We report the detection of eight bright X-ray bursts from the 6.5 s magnetar 1E 1048.1−5937, during a 2013 July observation campaign with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array. We study the morphological and spectral properties of these bursts and their evolution with time. The bursts resulted in count rate increases by orders of magnitude, sometimes limited by the detector dead time, and showed blackbody spectra with kT is approx. 6-8 keV in the T90 duration of 1-4 s, similar to earlier bursts detected from the source. We find that the spectra during the tail of the bursts can be modeled with an absorbed blackbody with temperature decreasing with flux. The burst flux decays followed a power law of index 0.8-0.9. In the burst tail spectra, we detect a is approx. 13 keV emission feature, similar to those reported in previous bursts from this source as well as from other magnetars observed with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer.We explore possible origins of the spectral feature such as proton cyclotron emission, which implies a magnetic field strength of B is approx. 2×10(exp15) G in the emission region. However, the consistency of the energy of the feature in different objects requires further explanation.

MAGNETAR 1E 1048.1-5937↗
NASA NTRS1974

Progress in gamma ray burst astronomy

Spectral observations on nine of the eleven known cosmic gamma ray bursts detected from IMP-7 from late 1972 through 1973 are reported. All nine events were found to have average spectra ranging from 100 to 1100 keV. The hypothesis of a single greater than 100 keV average event spectrum for all gamma ray bursts (inferred from IMP-6 observations) was investigated. In addition to the mutual consistency of these 14 IMP events, all independently reported average event spectra fit the IMP-7 common spectrum. This observed lack of variability of the average event spectrum suggests that the production mechanism is tied to more rigidly fixed source parameters than most celestial or solar hard X-ray phenomena. Other characteristics of gamma ray bursts events, are discussed: a high-energy spectral tail with power-law index -2.5, a rising size spectrum from the earlier event rate, and a hint of clustering of event occurrence in time.

Cline, T. L.↗