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At least 19 records

Deceptive Infusion of Data: A Novel Data Masking Paradigm for High-Valued Systems

This work addresses how analysts of a high-valued system (e.g., nuclear reactor, aircraft turbine designs) can extract findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable scientific data for public dissemination to artificial intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) researchers in a manner that cannot be reverse-engineered, potentially compromising sensitive or proprietary information. State-of-the-art methods address this problem through data masking techniques, which allow access to a subset of the information while obfuscating private and potentially identifying information (e.g., personally identifying medical data). These methods are unsuitable for industrial engineering processes, where AI/ML tools need explicit access to all the data available to draw the best inference about the system to help optimize its performance and identify its vulnerabilities, etc. Our novel deceptive infusion of data paradigm provides a solution to this conundrum by developing a mathematical approach capable of concealing the identity of the system while providing full access to all the features employed by AI/ML tools to ensure their optimal performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Barriers and Opportunities To Realize the System Value of Interregional Transmission

This report identifies barriers within existing rules and operational practices that may limit the system value interregional transmission can provide and identifies a suite of options that could enable greater utilization of and value from interregional transmission. To allow for the variety of power sector structures that exist across the United States, the report divides the evaluation of barriers and opportunities into three sections: common issues that are found in all regions, barriers between non-market or hybrid areas, and barriers between market areas. The report also identifies ambitious, transformative national actions that could unlock transmission value across both market and non-market areas. In the analysis of barriers and potential opportunities for improvement, we recognize these are complex issues that with a diverse set of power system stakeholders and considerations that must be taken into account. The aim of this report is not to make recommendations but to identify options to improve the use of interregional transmission that could be considered alongside other local, state, and regional objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Forward-Looking Estimates of Bulk Power System Value

When and where electric vehicle charging occurs has significant implications for power systems supporting widespread electric vehicle deployment with high shares of wind and solar generation. Numerous studies have estimated the value of scheduling or otherwise managing electric vehicle charging in such power systems. This study improves on those earlier works by leveraging detailed simulation models for electric vehicle adoption, electric vehicle use, electric vehicle charging, and bulk power system operations; and linking them with methods for describing charging flexibility at both the individual vehicle and aggregate levels. This study closely analyzes electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) performance along the dimensions of flexibility type (within-charging session or within-week scheduling), dispatch mechanism (direct load control or one of several price-based mechanisms), and participation rate, under the assumptions of ubiquitous chargers and all trips completed on time. The study is located in a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035, and in an envisioned 2038 New England power system for which within-region generation is 84% clean.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

How Improved Forecasting Can Increase the Bulk Power System Value of Price-Responsive Electric Vehicle Managed Charging

Personal light-duty vehicle (LDV) electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) can reduce power system costs by better aligning electric vehicle (EV) charging with locations and times of low energy cost or infrastructure use. The need to coordinate charging demand across thousands to millions of vehicles while preserving mobility service is a barrier to realizing the value of EVMC. Price-responsive dispatch mechanisms like time-of-use rates (TOU) and hourly real-time prices (RTP) are attractive compared to direct load control (DLC) because they only require one-way communications and local controls. However, increasing participation in price responsive mechanisms can induce costly-to-serve spikes in load and otherwise increase, rather than decrease, production costs. We quantify the ability of improved EVMC forecasting to sustain savings from price responsive mechanisms beyond the limit of 14% of LDVs actively participating observed in previous work. Perfect forecasting of price-responsive EV load makes TOU and RTP value-competitive with a low-error DLC formulation with up to 27% (within-week flexibility) to 45% or more (within-session flexibility) of LDVs participating in EVMC in an envisioned New England power system with 84% clean energy. Additional costs of implementing DLC should be no more than tens of dollars per vehicle-year if DLC is to be value-competitive with accurately forecast price-responsive EVMC for double-digit percentage shares of LDVs participating.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Estimating the Potential Bulk Power System Value

With more and more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road, the grid of the future can greatly benefit from EV managed charging, which coordinates charging based on people's travel needs, electricity supply, and grid conditions. The added flexibility could be especially valuable for the bulk power system as it transitions to high shares of variable renewable generation, like wind and solar. Numerous studies have estimated the potential value of EV managed charging. In this study, NREL leveraged more detailed modeling of EV adoption, use, charging, and bulk power system operations to understand the potential value. Unique to this study, NREL modeled different charging flexibility types and dispatch mechanisms - as well as participation rates among drivers in having their EV charging managed - starting from vehicle-specific descriptions of charging flexibility. The study is based on a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% EV sales by 2035 and a New England power system in 2038 with 84% clean generation and 26% of the electric load met by net imports. The 2038 New England light-duty vehicle feet is modeled as 45% electric.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Earned Value Management Systems for Operations Activities

An earned value management system (EVMS), which monitors contractor performance, is a requirement for program and project management for all major acquisitions by the United States Federal Government with development effort: (i.e., an asset requiring management attention because of its importance to an agency’s mission; high development, operating, or maintenance costs; high risk and/or high return). As an area less explored in earned value management (EVM) practices, this paper will survey the application of an EVMS for operations activities defined as: (1) Non-capital asset activities that are projects (or project - like) with definable start and end dates, with discrete scopes of work, and measurable accomplishments; as well as (2) Routine or recurring facility or environmental operations. This paper will examine the use of an EVMS to evaluate performance of operations and maintenance activities required once construction of a capital asset is complete and being used as intended. Such activities include upgrades and maintenance in order for capital assets to meet their mission function over a life-cycle (through repair, replacement, etc.). This paper will provide background on this topic from the perspective of the Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) Program. In addition, it will provide material from a panel discussion provided by a group of experts from the October 2019 Office of Environmental Management Project Management Workshop, as well as material from subsequent research on this topic.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

WAVES (Wind Asset Value Estimation System) [SWR-23-81]

The Wind Asset Value Estimation System (WAVES) model is a coupling framework for core NREL techno economic analysis software models to estimate capital expenditures (ORBIT), operational expenditures (WOMBAT), and energy production (FLORIS) for offshore wind power plants. Existing workflows to couple the three models for lifecycle performance and cost estimation require a large amount of manual and error-prone setup to combine both shared inputs and dependent outputs, as such WAVES's primary functionality is to wrap the core logic for running standard modeling workflows to ensure shared settings and entangled results are correctly and efficiently combined every time. SEE ALSO: https://pypi.org/project/WAVES/

Hammond, Robert↗

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Forward-Looking State-of-the-Art Review on Earned Value Management Systems: The Disconnect between Academia and Industry

Earned value management (EVM) is a project management approach that can enhance the probability of project success. It is applied widely across different industry sectors (e.g., energy, aerospace, construction, defense, and manufacturing), generally through the use of an earned value management system (EVMS). A holistic and up-to-date literature review on EVM and EVMS does not exist. A literature review can provide a comprehensive perspective on the topic, identifying and summarizing the existing body of knowledge, as a foundation to advance the state of practice of EVM/EVMS. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the EVM/EVMS state of the art by critically reviewing academic and industry publications, with a specific focus on the maturity of EVMS and the environment surrounding its implementation. By performing a systematic literature review, the authors identified 600 publications since the inception of the EVM concept in 1962, and then narrowed down this list to 160 relevant publications from the last decade for closer review. The findings include the discovery of eight emergent themes. Of these themes, “forecasting/prediction” constitutes the largest portion of the recent literature, followed by “application of EVMS.” One interesting finding is that EVMS maturity, although being a critical topic, is only discussed in one publication. Publications focused on EVM/EVMS have increased in the last decade and significant differences were found between academia and industry literature in terms of the limitations and extensions of EVM/EVMS, EVMS environment, and compliance. A key finding is that designing a reliable EVMS should combine both technical and social aspects of implementation. This forward-looking paper provides a state-of-the-art review while highlighting gaps in the existing EVM/EVMS body of knowledge and introducing new perspectives to support EVMS research and application.

42 ENGINEERING↗

OCTOKV: An Agile Network-Based Key-Value Storage System with Robust Load Orchestration

In this paper, we propose OctoKV, an innovative network-based key-value storage system. OctoKV addresses the repetitive address translation overhead associated with traditional key-value stores running on file systems on the client side. To mitigate this overhead, we implemented the key-value store on the server side using NVMe-oF and a user-level NVMe driver. In particular, we employed fine-grained resource monitoring and load balancing based on heuristics to optimize I/O performance. OctoKV is deployed on a Linux cluster with Intel SPDK. The extensive evaluation shows that OctoKV achieves lower I/O response times in comparison to traditional approaches where key-value stores run on the client side. Also, the proposed load balancing strategies efficiently enhance I/O response times by equally distributing the workload from overloaded cores to other cores.

Khan, Awais↗

An Effective Earned Value Management System (EVMS) is a Team Sport

We present a novel framework to assess 27 earned value management system (EVMS) environment factors and investigate their impact on project performance. A study of the EVMS literature, a survey of practitioners, and focus group meetings with 36 EVMS industry and government experts, supported the development of the framework. Focus groups involving 80 practitioners refined and tested it. We analyzed performance data from 35 completed projects/programs representing over US$21.8 billion in total cost; a project demonstrating a positive environment could save up to 25% in cost versus baseline. Practitioners can develop an effective EVMS environment by following the provided guidance.

Aramali, Vartenie↗

Hybrid renewable energy systems: the value of storage as a function of PV-wind variability

As shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) on the electric grid increase, sources of grid flexibility will become increasingly important for maintaining the reliability and affordability of electricity supply. Lithium-ion battery energy storage has been identified as an important and cost-effective source of flexibility, both by itself and when coupled with VRE technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind. In this study, we explored the current and future value of utility-scale hybrid energy systems comprising PV, wind, and lithium-ion battery technologies (PV-wind-battery systems). Using a price-taker model with simulated hourly energy and capacity prices, we simulated the revenue-maximizing dispatch of a range of PV-wind-battery configurations across Texas, from the present through 2050. Holding PV capacity and point-of-interconnection capacity constant, we modeled configurations with varying wind-to-PV capacity ratios and battery-to-PV capacity ratios. We found that coupling PV, wind, and battery technologies allows for more effective utilization of interconnection capacity by increasing capacity factors to 60%–80%+ and capacity credits to close to 100%, depending on battery capacity. We also compared the energy and capacity values of PV-wind and PV-wind-battery systems to the corresponding stability coefficient metric, which describes the location-and configuration-specific complementarity of PV and wind resources. Our results show that the stability coefficient effectively predicts the configuration-location combinations in which a smaller battery component can provide comparable economic performance in a PV-wind-battery system (compared to a PV-battery system). These PV-wind-battery hybrids can help integrate more VRE by providing smoother, more predictable generation and greater flexibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Climate change deniers, hippies, and preppers. Oh my!: Unpacking engineering student perceptions of renewable energy technology adoption in the United States

Engineers play a key role in the formation, operation, and maintenance of large socio-technical systems. Enmeshed in these practices of engineering are shared perceptions and visions of how society should be ordered, and what role of engineers should play. These value systems and how they shape the perception of who and where alternative energy belongs will shape who does or does not have the opportunity to participate in these alternative visions of energy. Drawing on engineering studies and dialectology research this study examines how a group of engineering students engaged in learning about renewable energy systems perceive the kinds of people in the United States who would or would not adopt alternative energy. Rather than see adoption/non-adoption as a purely “technical” matter, students brought their own perceptions of regional, social, and political differences to characterize the potential acceptability of each technology. Certain regions of the United States, despite their technical potential based on government and industry sources, are cast as too culturally backward and resistant to change to embrace new energy sources. In conclusion, these insights elucidate the importance of 'engineers' value systems as they continue to play a significant role in shaping the development of alternative energy technologies and markets.

Adoption↗

Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future

Abstract Wind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Competitiveness Metrics for Electricity System Technologies

The relative economic competitiveness of power generation technologies is a topic of much interest to diverse electric industry participants. However, assessing competitiveness can be challenging as it requires considering both total costs and total system value of each technology, which are complicated by the (1) numerous and diverse grid services needed to operate a reliable power system; (2) variations in the economic value of the grid services with system state and location, and over multiple timescales, due to the challenges of transporting and storing electricity; and (3) the unique characteristics of different electric system assets. Ideally, metrics designed or used to convey technology competitiveness must consider these complexities, but existing metrics often fall short. For example, the levelized cost of energy does not consider the system economic value of the various technologies nor does it consider services beyond electricity production. Various other metrics have been designed with the purpose of more-accurately communicating the economic viability of electric system technologies. In this report, we summarize the primary sources and components of costs and value and review the known competitiveness metrics by presenting their definitions, applications, advantages, and disadvantages. We also introduce a new set of competitiveness metrics, which we refer to as System Profitability metrics, that more-directly applies the economic principles of return-on-investment to electric system technologies. We use conceptual examples to show how the System Profitability metrics better reflect economic viability and relative technology competitiveness compared with existing metrics. We also describe how competitiveness metrics can be quantified using optimization-based models and demonstrate this capability using a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗