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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗
NASA NTRS1980

Climatological relationships of severe duststorms in the Great Plains to synoptic weather patterns: A potential for predictability

A data base provided by 35 severe duststorms that occurred between 1968 and 1977 in the central and southern Great Plains allowed construction of a classification scheme of meteorological causes of duststorms, and a telescopic forecast technique for medium range (6 to 48 hour) prediction of severe cyclogenic duststorms. In addition, areal coverage definitions for duststorms based on characteristics of the storms, and a hierarchy of weather causes of severe duststorms were developed. The man machine mix forecast correctly predicted six of seven duststorms observed during the 1976-77 winter, with one overforecast; the machine-only forecast correctly predicted four of the seven duststorms, with one overforecast. Both techniques had problems correctly predicting the duration of severe duststorms.

Woiceshyn, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Supplementary notes on sea-surface temperature anomalies and model-generated meteorological histories

A numerical experiment was made on the Mintz-Arakawa two-level global general circulation model, investigating the effects of a transient one-month sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly and of a persistent three-month SST anomaly. The time histories are compared with a control run that lacked the anomaly pattern. After one month, the anomaly and control synoptic patterns were as uncorrelated as any two random fields. It is found that the transient SST anomaly can alter the monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation in the eastern U.S. by as much as two class intervals. The question of whether the real atmosphere is as sensitive to such an anomaly is raised but cannot be settled at this time.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Summer Greenland Blocking Diversity and Its Impact on the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface runoff since the turn of the century has been linked to a rise in Greenland blocking frequency. However, a range of synoptic patterns can be considered blocked flow and efforts that summarize all blocking types indiscriminately likely fail to capture consequential differences in GrIS response. To account for these differences, we employ ERA5 reanalysis to identify summer blocking using two independent blocking metrics: the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the blocking index of Pelly and Hoskins (2003, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2). We then conduct a self-organizing map analysis to objectively classify synoptic conditions during Greenland blocking episodes and identify three primary blocking types: (a) a high-amplitude Omega block, (b) a lower-amplitude, stationary summer ridge, and (c) a cyclonic wave breaking pattern. Using Modèle Atmosphérique Régional output, we document the spatiotemporal progression of the surface energy and mass balance for each blocking type. Relative to all blocking episodes, summer ridge patterns produce more melt over the southern ice sheet, Omega blocks produce more melt across the northern ice sheet, and cyclonic wave breaking patterns produce more melt in northeast Greenland. Our results indicate that the recent trend in summer Greenland blocking was largely driven by an increase in Omega patterns and suggest that Omega blocks have played a central role in the recent acceleration of GrIS mass loss. Furthermore, the GBI exhibited a relative bias toward Omega patterns, which may help explain why it has measured stronger trends in summer Greenland blocking than other blocking metrics.

atmospheric blocking↗
NASA NTRS1978

An initial state perturbation experiment with the GISS model

Monthly mean global forecasts for January 1975 have been computed with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model from four slightly different sets of initial conditions - a 'control' state and three random perturbations thereof - to simulate the effects of initial state uncertainty on forecast quality. Differences among the forecasts are examined in terms of energetics, synoptic patterns and forecast statistics. The 'noise level' of the model predictions is depicted on global maps of standard deviations of sea level pressures, 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures for the set of four forecasts. Initial small-scale random errors do not appear to result in any major degradation of the large-scale monthly mean forecast beyond that generated by the model itself, nor do they appear to represent the major source of large-scale forecast error.

Spar, J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Objective analysis and assimilation of observational data from FGGE

An objective analysis scheme is presented for the assimilation of meteorological data in which wind, geopotential height, and relative humidity are analyzed on mandatory pressure levels, and surface pressure and temperature are reduced to sea level for analysis. The present analysis/forecast system demonstrates a reasonable degree of forecast skill over the Northern Hemisphere for an ensemble of five-day integrations during the First Special Observing Period of the First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE) The vertical motion field shows outstanding agreement with the large scale synoptic pattern for the sample analysis presented, and the mean meridional circulation portrayed in the FGGE analysis is in close agreement with observational estimates.

Baker, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of soundings, analyses and model forecasts derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellite data

TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America during three days in January 1980, and synoptic analyses and numerical-model forecasts derived from them, are compared with conventional data and analyses from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). The collocated sounding comparison revealed significant errors, especially near the surface and the tropopause. Satellite-derived thermal gradients were found to be weak, and thickness-analysis difference fields to propagate eastward, suggesting that sounding errors are correlated with synoptic patterns. The same pattern of anomalies is seen in the model forecasts. More detailed determinations of the correlation detected here could be used to optimize the assimilation of satellite soundings to conventional data.

Koehler, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr 500 mb forecast over the western US due to the better initial specification afforded by satellite observed temperatures over the North Pacific Ocean is shown.

Druyan, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The synoptic setting and possible energy sources for mesoscale wave disturbances

Published data on 13 cases of mesoscale wave disturbances and their environment were examined to isolate common features for these cases and to determine possible energy sources for the waves. These events are characterized by either a singular wave of depression or wave packets with periods of 1-4 h, horizontal wavelengths of 50-500 km, and surface-pressure perturbation amplitudes of 0.2-7.0 mb. These wave events are shown to be associated with a distinct synoptic pattern (including the existence of a strong inversion in the lower troposphere and the propagation of a jet streak toward a ridge axis in the upper troposphere) while displaying little correlation with the presence of convective storm cells. The observed development of the waves is consistent with the hypothesis that the energy source needed to initiate and sustain the wave disturbances may be related to a geostrophic adjustment process associated with upper-tropospheric jet streaks.

Uccellini, Louis W.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Stratospheric temperature-ozone relationships 1978-1986

Global stratospheric temperature and geopotential height at eight pressure levels (70, 50, 30, 10, 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 hPa) were derived at NMC daily since October 1978. These fields are based on NOAA operational satellite sounder information. Comparable daily global fields of stratospheric ozone (30 to 0.4 hPa and total ozone) were derived from the SBUV instrument on Nimbus 7 and are now derived from the operational NOAA SBUV/2 instrument. The ozone and meteorological fields are verified against ground based measurements (Umkehr, balloon, rocket, lidar) to determine fields of temperature and ozone was assembled. Some of the interesting features of correlation between the synoptic patterns of the two data sets as well as their change with time are discussed. Seasonal as well as interannual variations in the patterns of correlation are compared in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere polar regions. Other outstanding features in both the temperature and ozone fields are highlighted.

Gelman, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A case study of analyzed versus satellite-derived water vapor distributions over the Atlantic Ocean

The paper compares two estimates (one derived from the ECMF analysis and the other from the DMSP Special Sensor Microwave/Imager, SSM/I) of precipitable water content (PWC) over the North Atlantic Ocean during a period of intense cyclone and frontal activity between September 20 and 29, 1987, when two tropical cyclones, Dennis and Emily, moved into midlatitudes and took on extratropical characteristics. The values from the ECMWF analyses consisted of vertical integrals of specific humidity from 1000-300 mb, on a 2.5-deg latitude/longitude grid. The PWC values from the SSM/I were computed using the technique described by Wentz (1983) and were based on retrievals at increments of 25 km. The two distributions of PWC showed very good agreement with each other and with the synoptic patterns depicted.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗
NASA NTRS1994

A season of heat, water vapor, total hydrocarbon, and ozone fluxes at a subarctic fen

High-latitude environments are thought to play several critical roles in the global balance of radiatively active trace gases. Adequate documentation of the source and sink strengths for trace gases requires long time series of detailed measurements, including heat and moisture budgets. A fen near Schefferville, Quebec, was instrumented during the summer of 1990 for the measurement of the surface energy, radiation, and moisture balances as well as for eddy correlation estimates of ozone and methane flux. Despite the limited fetch at this site, analysis of the tower flux 'footprint' indicates that at least 80% of the flux observed originates from sources within the fen. Sensible heat fluxes averaged 25% of the daytime net radiation at the site, while the latent heat flux, determined from the energy balance, was 63%; the Bowen ratio varied from 0.2 to 0.8 from day to day, without a seasonal trend to the variation. The competing effects of rooted macrophyte development (with concomitant effects on roughness and transpiration) and the normal shift in synoptic pattern around day 200 to warm, dry conditions results in a lack of net seasonal effect on the energy partitioning. Over the period from days 170 to 230, the evaporation (167 mm) was double the rainfall, while the decline in water level was 107 mm, leaving a net runoff of 0.44 mm/d. The total hydrocarbon flux was 75-120 mg m(exp -2)/d, following a diurnal pattern similar to heat or moisture flux, while the daytime ozone flux was about -1.11 x 10(exp 11) molecules cm(exp -2)/s. A period near the end of the experiment, during week 30, produced the strongest total hydrocarbon flux, associated with warmer deep (1 m) soil temperatures, lower fen water levels, and the late summer shift in wind direction at that time. An early summer 'flush' of total hydrocarbon was not observed.

Moore, Kathleen E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Equatorial wave activity derived from fluctuations in observed convection

The spectrum of equatorial wave activity propagating vertically into the stratosphere is calculated from high-resolution imagery of the global convective pattern. Synoptic Global Cloud Imagery (GCI), constructed from six satellites simultaneously observing the earth, is used to diabatically force the linearized primitive equations. Having resolution of 0.5 deg and 3 h, that imagery captures the dominant scales of organized convection, including several harmonics of the diurnal cycle. Its global coverage with high space-time resolution allows the GCI to represent heating variability and dynamical behavior excited by it over a wide range of scales. The dynamical response above the heating is evaluated globally in terms of a space-time spectrum of Hough modes, one which includes planetary-scale Kelvin waves, Rossby waves, and gravity waves down to the resolution of the GCI. The geopotential response, which is indicative of temperature fluctuations observed by satellite, is very red in frequency. Therefore, planetary-scale waves with periods longer than two days dominate the spectrum of geopotential, while high-frequency gravity waves make a comparatively small contribution. Some 80% of the geopotential variance is accounted for by the Kelvin and gravest-symmetric Rossby modes, while the Rossby-gravity mode is comparatively weak. In horizontal eddy motion, the excited wave spectrum is still dominated by planetary-scale components. However, meridional wind fluctuations associated with the Rossby-gravity mode have variance comparable to that of zonal wind fluctuations associated with the Kelvin mode, even though the Rossby-gravity mode is nearly invisible in the geopotential response. Estimates of tropospheric heating lead to amplitudes and propagation characteristics that are broadly consistent with satellite and radiosonde observations of wave activity in the lower stratosphere. The space-time spectrum of EP flux is significantly whiter than the response in either geopotential or motion. Gravity waves of small scale and high frequency carry a large fraction of the upward flux. Although it dominates eastward variance of geopotential and motion, the Kelvin mode carries only about 50% of the eastward EP flux at phase speeds of 20-40 m/s and only 35% of the total eastward flux transmitted to the stratosphere. The remainder is carried by the gravity wave spectrum, which carries nearly all of the westward flux at phase speeds greater than 20 m/s. The gravity wave spectrum also contributes significantly at phase speeds of 10-20 m/s, where only 25% of the flux is accounted for by zonal wavenumbers less than 20. The broad nature of the gravity wave spectrum suggests its absorption at critical levels will be distributed over a deep layer of the middle atmosphere.

Bergman, John W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

NASA Applied Sciences' DEVELOP National Program: Summer 2010 Florida Agriculture

The main agricultural areas in South Florida are located within the fertile land surrounding Lake Okeechobee. The Atlantic Watershed monthly rainfall anomalies showed a weak but statistically significant correlation to the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). No other watershed s anomalies showed significant correlations with ONI or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). During La Nina months, less sea breeze days and more disturbed days were found to occur compared to El Nino and neutral months. The increase in disturbed days can likely by attributed to the synoptic pattern during La Nina, which is known to be favorable for tropical systems to follow paths that affect South Florida. Overall, neither sea breeze rainfall patterns nor total rainfall patterns in South Florida s main agricultural areas were found to be strongly influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation during our study time.

Cooley, Zachary C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of the Warmest Arctic Winter, 2015-2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Niño-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Barents and Kara Seas↗
NASA NTRS2023

Overview and Statistical Analysis of Boundary Layer Clouds and Precipitation Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean

Due to their fast evolution and large natural variability in macro- and microphysical properties, the accurate representation of boundary layer clouds in current climate models remains a challenge. One of the regions with large intermodel spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble is the western North Atlantic Ocean. Here, statistically representative in situ measurements can help to develop and constrain the parameterization of clouds in global models. To this end, we performed comprehensive measurements of boundary layer clouds, aerosol, trace gases, and radiation in the western North Atlantic Ocean during the NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) mission. In total, 174 research flights with 574 flight hours for cloud and precipitation measurements were performed with the HU-25 Falcon during three winter (February–March 2020, January–April 2021, and November 2021–March 2022) and three summer seasons (August–September 2020, May–June 2021, and May–June 2022). Here we present a statistical evaluation of 16 140 individual cloud events probed by the fast cloud droplet probe and the two-dimensional stereo cloud probe during 155 research flights in a representative and repetitive flight strategy allowing for robust statistical data analyses. We show that the vertical profiles of distributions of the liquid water content and the cloud droplet effective diameter (ED) increase with altitude in the marine boundary layer. Due to higher updraft speeds, higher cloud droplet number concentrations (N liquid ) were measured in winter compared to summer despite lower cloud condensation nucleus abundance. Flight cloud cover derived from statistical analysis of in situ data is reduced in summer and shows large variability. This seasonal contrast in cloud coverage is consistent with a dominance of a synoptic pattern in winter that favors conditions for the formation of stratiform clouds at the western edge of cyclones (post-cyclonic). In contrast, a dominant summer anticyclone is concomitant with the occurrence of shallow cumulus clouds and lower cloud coverage. The evaluation of boundary layer clouds and precipitation in the N liquid ED phase space sheds light on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice cloud properties and helps to categorize the cloud data. Ice and liquid precipitation, often masked in cloud statistics by a high abundance of liquid clouds, is often observed throughout the cloud. The ACTIVATE in situ cloud measurements provide a wealth of cloud information useful for assessing airborne and satellite remote-sensing products, for global climate and weather model evaluations, and for dedicated process studies that address precipitation and aerosol–cloud interactions.

Aerosol↗